Platform wars, app stores and ecosystems
Around 125m smartphones and over 20m tablets were sold in Q4 2011. If tablets are included, Apple is now the largest PC manufacturer, while smartphones are now outselling PCs
These devices are the battleground for a war of ecosystems in which Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android platforms are dominant and others are hoping for third place at best. iOS and Android sold around 92m units in Q4 and now have an active base between them of around 515m devices
Samsung now accounts for at least half of Android sales and is in some senses more of a rival to Apple than Android itself |
Media, Technology, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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Apple rewrites the textbook
Apple has begun selling interactive textbooks via its iBookstore, a move which is likely to accelerate the digital transition in education
However, the pace of change will be slowed by the cost of devices and the limited number of textbooks that have been designed for tablet computers
By developing educational software and course materials, Apple is trying to position the iPad at the centre of students’ educational lives – a niche that could significantly boost its hardware sales |
Media, Technology |
January 2012 Access this report
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Recorded music: is the US bouncing back?
US album volumes in 2011 rose for the first time since 2004, but lower pricing may continue the revenue decline
UK album volumes declined 5.6% in 2011. HMV’s new-found breathing space removes a key risk for the outlook
US radio royalties to music publishers have been agreed in principle and will see a return to a revenue based payment |
Media, Music and Radio, Non-UK Media |
January 2012 Access this report
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Pre-Christmas tablet market update
Apple has now sold 40m iPads – we estimate 4 to 5m in the UK – and goes into the Christmas season with no credible competitors beyond Amazon’s Kindle Fire, which is so far only available in the USA
Android phones are selling in huge numbers at half the price or less of the iPhone, but would-be iPad competitors are the same price or higher. With the continued absence of a meaningful content ecosystem for Android tablets it is hard to see consumers buying them in substantial numbers |
Media, Technology, Telecoms |
December 2011 Access this report
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Apple’s results, the iPhone and Android
Apple is now a $108bn company, with annual revenue up 66% from a year ago and 40% gross margins. September quarter iPhone sales dipped to 17m ahead of a new product launch, but Apple still sold 72m in the last 12m, compared to 40m in the 12m to September 2010
Apple has now sold 40m iPads for $20.3bn revenue, and 11m in the last quarter. All other competing devices have sold perhaps 4m. We expect Apple’s dominance to continue through 2012 and potentially beyond |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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Newspapers, payment and the iPad Newsstand
The Guardian has finally launched its iPad app: of the UK’s paid daily newspapers all but the Mirror and Independent now have iPad apps. All of these require payment and all but the FT use Apple’s iTunes billing
Apple has moved to smooth out the buying and reading process with the new Newsstand feature for iPad and iPhone, which adds better discoverability and automatic downloads to the existing subscription offer. This also makes it harder for readers to move to other platforms |
Media, Technology |
October 2011 Access this report
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Amazon makes its move into tablets
Amazon has taken the ereader to $79 and the tablet to $200. The Amazon Fire is everything that Android tablets are not: a coherent high-quality user experience rather than a box of components. It will sell well, while new sub-$100 Kindles will reinforce Amazon’s dominance of ebooks
Amazon began as a bookshop, but just 30% of Q2 North American sales were physical media of any kind. The Fire is part of a broader strategy – to embed Amazon in online buying of everything from shoes to nappies to iPads and TVs. The Kindle Fire is a shop window on every coffee table |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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Apple refreshes the iPhone
Apple will release the iPhone 4S later this month, with substantially upgraded internals but the same design. Despite disappointment at the lack of something with a ‘5’ on the box, this is a solid update that maintains Apple’s competitive positioning
The most significant omission was a lower-priced iPhone. Apple sells the 3GS and now the 4 at lower prices, but lacks a dedicated device to address the sub $300 (SIM-free) market where most future growth will come from. We think this is only a matter of time |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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The mobile platform wars
In this report we outline the current state and likely development of the war between mobile platforms. We discuss installed bases and activity levels, the key issues facing Apple and Android, including Android fragmentation and Google's acquisition of Motorola, and go on to look at the tablet market and the outlook for RIM, Nokia and Windows Phone. |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q2 2011: MTR cuts hit but stable underlying
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request |
Mobile, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse Q1 2011/12 results: weak start to the year
CPW Europe had a weak first quarter, with like-for-like revenue growth of -3.3%, with all of the drop coming from the 18 to 24 month contract length shift in the UK
We expect its performance to improve through the rest of its fiscal year, but it will need to in order to hit even the bottom end of its full year guidance
The US mobile retailing operation is doing much better, with very strong revenue growth, and is likely again to exceed full year guidance |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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Apple, Android and tablet market share
Apple has now sold 25m iPads since launch, worth $15bn, and will probably sell 40-50m in 2011. Competing tablets have sold perhaps 2-3m in total so far and will not be competitive with the iPad until 2012 at the earliest
Android phones are now far outselling iPhones, but benefit from a narrower user experience gap and from selling at a half of the price. Android tablets must compete with the iPad at the same or higher price points, a far harder task. We believe it is possible the iPad will retain a 50%+ share |
Media, Mobile, Press, Technology, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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Recorded Music and Music Publishing 2011
This report provides our annual assessment and forecasts for recorded music sales and music publishing revenues, which engage all four of the ‘majors’ – Universal Music Group (UMG), EMI, Sony and Warner Music Group (WMG). In the context of the ongoing physical-to-digital transition of music consumption, retailing and buying, documented in the report, we estimate a 10% decline in recorded music sales to $18.4 billion in 2010, the sixth consecutive year of decline. We also project further overall declines in our forecast period to 2015. |
Media, Music and Radio |
July 2011 Access this report
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Mobile user survey 2011: More smartphones, more usage of smartphones
The most dramatic observation from our survey is the surge in mobile data service usage: 48% of UK mobile users now use a data service at least once a month, up from just 30% last year. This increase is substantially all from the increased number of internet-centric smartphones (i.e. iPhone, BlackBerry and Android handsets) in the base |
Mobile, Telecoms |
June 2011 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q1 2011
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
May 2011 Access this report
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Ebooks and accelerated change in bookselling
Amazon now sells more ebooks than print books on Amazon.com, while overall US ebook sales were 15.6% of the consumer market in March, up 142% from last year. Meanwhile, for some publishers over half of book sales are now through companies that are not book sellers
Waterstone’s has been bought by a Russian investor for £53m, with James Daunt parachuted in to take it back to its roots in bookselling, while in the USA John Malone has bid for Barnes & Noble valuing it at $1.45bn |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
May 2011 Access this report
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Apple: everything going right?
In the March 2011 quarter Apple’s revenue was up 83% year-on-year and net income up 95%. iPhone sales are up 113% and the iPad has sold 19.5m units in the last 12 months. Even the ‘legacy’ Mac business grew 32%, and Apple now has over $65bn cash in the bank. Not bad for a niche business
With single digit penetration in its core growth businesses, Apple has the opportunity to continue growing fast for some time to come |
Media, Mobile, Telecoms |
May 2011 Access this report
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The ebooks explosion
Market data and industry anecdote point to an explosion in ebook sales in the US and UK in 2011. Leading consumer publishers are seeing ebook sales at 10-15% of total sales in January and February, driven by Christmas device sales
So far ebooks had been strongest in niches: romance, business books and frequent travellers. They have now moved into the mass market: few genres will be untouched |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
April 2011 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q4 2010: Growth improves, but outlook deteriorates
European mobile revenue growth improved very slightly in Q4 2010, up by 0.1ppt in reported and 0.2ppts in underlying terms, but remained negative
While the improvement is welcome, growth remains very subdued compared to pre-recession levels, especially in Italy and Spain, which continue to lag the growth of the UK, Germany and France
The outlook for mobile revenue growth is bleak, with severe MTR cuts in Germany and the UK likely to drive growth down again over the next six months |
Mobile, Telecoms |
March 2011 Access this report
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Apple prunes the ecosystem
Last week Apple introduced a new subscription payment system for publishers using its devices, but also clamped down on publishers using their own payment systems, obliging them to offer Apple’s system (with a 30% commission) in parallel or leave the platform
For publishers selling their own content with no marginal cost, this is an extra cost that most will grudgingly accept. But aggregators obliged to pay rights-holders a fixed fee for each content sale, such as music or ebook vendors, face bigger problems: some will be forced off the platform |
Media, Mobile, Press, Internet, Telecoms |
February 2011 Access this report
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