UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q1 2013: Revenue strong, uncertainty ahead
UK residential communications revenue growth was very strong in Q1 2013, rising to 4.6% from 2.1% in the previous quarter with most of the improvement driven by improved unit ARPU growth, which turned positive for the first time since early 2011
We expect unit volume growth to remain strong for the rest of the year, although ARPU growth is likely to moderate as overlapping price increases drop out, but it is still likely to be firmer than 2012 given the continued growth of high speed broadband (at least at BT and Virgin Media) and firm pricing in general |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
June 2013 Access this report
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BT Sport - not a game changer
BT has thrown down the gauntlet to Sky, as it has launched a premium sports offering that will be free to all BT broadband customers upon its launch on 1 August 2013 The product being ‘free’ makes it a potentially effective defence of BT’s broadband base, with the possibility for win-back as well, but this also raises the direct operating losses that have to be set against these benefits The main damage to Sky comes from elevated rights costs, with there being a risk of further inflation in three years as another major round of renewals comes up |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
May 2013 Access this report
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BT Q4 2012/13 results: Revenue very strong, costs to be hit by Sport
BT’s underlying revenue growth improved from -3% last quarter to around zero at both the Retail and Group level, its best performance for years, with high speed broadband helping to stabilise ARPU
BT Sport is positioned well as a defensive/win-back product against broadband losses to Sky, but BT’s ability to win triple play subscriptions off Sky is still hampered by lack of content, and the cost appears disproportionate to its aims |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
May 2013 Access this report
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TV platform growth forecasts 2013-2020
The completion of digital switchover has left an equilibrium between the digital satellite, cable and terrestrial platforms that is not expected to alter significantly by 2020
The main anticipated change over the forecast period is pay-TV subscription take-up where the 50/50 split between pay and free TV households is expected to rise steadily to 60/40, or even 67/33 if we include more individually-, as opposed to household-, based OTT online services such as Netflix, LoveFilm or Sky’s NOW TV |
Media, TV, Technology, Telecoms |
April 2013 Access this report
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UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q4 2012: Solid and solidifying
Both subscriber and revenue growth in the UK home communications market perked up in Q4, with an easing of weather related supply-side constraints helping the former and firm pricing helping that latter. We expect both trends to continue into 2013
BT’s high speed broadband net adds accelerated in the quarter, as did that of the other DSL operators, albeit from a much lower base. High speed broadband is already a mass market phenomenon within the BT and Virgin Media subscriber bases, with it only a matter of time before this spreads further |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
March 2013 Access this report
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BT steps into ESPN's trainers
BT Group’s acquisition of ESPN’s television business in the UK and Ireland marks an important step in cementing BT Sport’s position as the number two premium sports provider from the moment of launch.
The acquisition also raises the stakes, leaving BT with the strategic challenge of what distribution to opt for on the satellite and cable platforms to mitigate the high costs of BT Sport, but without overly sacrificing its USP for strengthening customer retention and building demand for high speed broadband on its own platform. |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
February 2013 Access this report
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UK 4G spectrum auction: Mostly rational
The UK 4G spectrum auction raised a total of £2.3bn, broadly in line with similar auctions, although the highest quality spectrum raised less and the lowest quality spectrum raised more than might have been expected
The main short term consequences are as was expected beforehand; Vodafone and O2 will launch 4G services around May/June 2013 and H3G will launch in October 2013
Longer term, O2 and H3G may suffer from their lack of 2.6GHz spectrum, although with other bands likely to come free within the next ten years this may not affect them |
Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2013 Access this report
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Football and the EU: Careful what you wish for
In 2006, the EU Commission forced the Premier League to sell TV rights to at least two separate broadcasters. The explicit purpose was to encourage the return of some matches to free-to-air channels and to stimulate competition, driving down prices and encouraging more people to watch football on TV The regulatory intervention has had none of the intended effects. |
Media, TV |
February 2013 Access this report
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BT Q3 2012/13 results: Fibre take-up accelerates, but sports costs loom
BT had a very solid quarter, with revenue growth improving, broadband subscriber net additions bouncing back, ARPU robust and cost control still strong
Fibre net adds were particularly impressive, with take-up accelerating from an already high level, with this perhaps now starting to help stabilise ARPU
Progress on TV has been more mixed, with plenty of costs being added but no deals having been made yet to help offset this with revenue |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
February 2013 Access this report
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Media & Telecoms: 2013 & Beyond (part 1)
Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 15 January 2013. The event featured talks by 14 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Press, Internet, Music and Radio, Technology, Telecoms |
January 2013 Access this report
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Slides accompanying Media & Telecoms: 2013 & Beyond (part 1)
Slides from the presentations by the following speakers at the Media & Telecoms: 2013 & Beyond conference on 15 January 2013:
•Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO, WPP
•Michael Tobin, CEO, Telecity Group
•Liv Garfield, CEO, Openreach
•Dido Harding, CEO, TalkTalk Group
•Victor Zhang, CEO, Huawei UK & Ireland
•Cindy Rose, Executive Director of Digital Entertainment, Virgin Media |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Press, Internet, Music and Radio, Technology, Telecoms |
January 2013 Access this report
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UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q3 2012: Volumes falter, but pricing remains firm
After a host of TV-related announcements/launches last quarter, the main feature of the last three months has been price increase announcements, with all four of the large operators announcing a significant price increase(s) to take effect between December 2012 and February 2013 |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
December 2012 Access this report
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Sound start to the year: Sky Q1 2013 results
Q1 2013 was a solid quarter, notable for low seasonal churn, uplift in television gross additions and good growth in home communications, although the rate is slowing The low quarterly ARPU increase of £2 was the weak point in light of the September price increases in television, testifying to the toughness of the economic headwinds rather than to competition from OTT services like Netflix and Lovefilm With NOW TV in its teething stages, the main impact of connected TV on Sky will only start to emerge in the second half of next year; while the most immediate issue is the entry of BT into |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
November 2012 Access this report
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BT Q2 2012/13 results: Revenue slows, cost cutting compensates
BT Group revenue growth disappointed at the reported level, dropping from -6% to -9%, but adjusting for a series of one-offs underlying growth only dropped from -3.2% to -3.6%, easily made up for by another quarter of strong cost reductions Broadband net adds were again a little weak, with weather-related repairs slowing new line installations, but BT’s share held up well, at least against its fellow DSL operators Fibre-based connections continued to grow and BT further accelerated its build-out plans, with this (and not TV) holding the key to stabilising ARPU and increasing wholesale rev |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
November 2012 Access this report
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TV, non-linear and disruption
The linear TV broadcast industry has kept its oligopolistic structure remarkably intact over the last 50 years against a background of much technological innovation and re-regulation, but now faces a new wave of innovation that promises growth of non-linear at the expense of linear True disruption can only occur by solving the device challenge of developing on a mass scale new, compelling and innovative ways to access content, but so far non-linear has achieved a very small share of total viewing while linear viewing levels are as high as ever Although non-linear viewing may become substa |
Media, TV, Internet, Technology |
October 2012 Access this report
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First BT PL, now BT top drawer rugby
BT’s acquisition of Premiership Rugby rights underlines its intentions to create a solid premium sports channel with expected launch in summer 2013
BT’s entry into the sports arena is part of a wider TV platform/content strategy that embraces the launch of a much enlarged basic channel offer, integration with YouView and fibre roll-out
Although expected to post significant losses on its sports channels over the next three years, BT’s commitment appears long term |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
September 2012 Access this report
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BT's reassuring price rise
BT has announced consumer price rises of around 6% to take effect from 5 January 2013; Virgin Media had raised its prices in April 2012 by around 5%, and we expect the LLU operators to largely follow, at least for line rental
While this was largely expected, given a (self-imposed) price freeze that expires on this date, continued price rationality in the UK broadband and telephony market is reassuring
The timings of the price rises should allow both BT and TTG improve their revenue growth in Q1 2013 after a weak Q4 2012 |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2012 Access this report
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UK broadband, telephony and pay-TV trends Q2 2012
In this report we show our analysis of the performance, key trends, competitive dynamics and factors impacting the UK broadband, telephony and pay-TV markets
The first part of the report focusses on market level performance and KPIs such as volume and revenue growth, net adds, pricing and ARPU, and market shares as well as our analysis of key developments in high speed broadband and pay-TV offerings
The second covers the individual results of the four largest ISPs (BT, Virgin Media, BSkyB and TalkTalk Group) in the context of the wider market developments |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2012 Access this report
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The CAT devastates Ofcom WMO remedy
Though likely to be appealed, the CAT’s dismissal of the Ofcom WMO remedy seems certain to cut off any further re-regulation of pay-TV in the next two years
The CAT decision hands Sky pricing power in the wholesale of its premium sports content, while forcing other retailers to switch their focus on to attempts to enter into commercial supply agreements with Sky
Financially Sky has potentially most to gain and VMed most to lose from the CAT decision, while BT’s strategy to expand its content offer is highly challenged |
Media, TV |
August 2012 Access this report
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YouView: better late than never
YouView, the hybrid DTT/IPTV service backed by the public service broadcasters, is here, but with an initial retail box price of £300 it will be heavily dependent on the subsidies offered by ISP distributors BT and TalkTalk The TV market has evolved since YouView’s conception in 2008, with many other internet-enabled options now available; its managed and integrated approach gives it some advantages but doesn’t make it a ‘must have’ We expect YouView to mainly appeal to Freeview and BT Vision upgraders and project take-up between 1-3 million TV homes by 2015, though if the product improve |
Media, TV, Internet, Technology |
July 2012 Access this report
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