Ofcom's statement on Next Generation Access: green light, red ink?
Ofcom’s statement on Next Generation Access (NGA) gives BT the maximum possible incentive to invest by allowing a high degree of pricing freedom and some short cuts to reduce implementation costs
But Ofcom cannot guarantee that BT will make a return from NGA, only the existence of an opportunity to make one |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
March 2009 Access this report
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UK broadband and telephony market Q4 2008
UK broadband subscriber growth continued to decline in Q4 2008 year-on-year. We expect declining growth throughout 2009, with the growth rate remaining positive, but in single figures |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
March 2009 Access this report
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BT FY 2008-09 Q4 results: clearing the decks
BT’s Q4 results contained a bombshell £1.3 billion write-down at Global Services to correct previous under-reporting of costs on two contracts, believed to be with the NHS and Reuters. Underlying EBITDA at Global Services also dropped sharply for the second quarter running
Annual pension contributions are to increase sharply, as expected, albeit to a level sustainable by the business. Performance at other divisions continues to be reasonable, given the economic environment |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
May 2009 Access this report
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BT FY 2009-10 Q1 results: what goes down
BT’s Q1 results provided welcome respite from a string of bad news, and some evidence of management’s ability to cut costs, but were helped by a temporary sharp reduction in capex and a VAT repayment. It remains early days
The ‘21st century’ upgrade to the core network now appears to be largely complete and delivering cost savings, but a separate voice network will continue to run over the access infrastructure |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2009 Access this report
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UK broadband and telephony markets Q2 2009
This report looks at the UK broadband and telephony market up to Q2 2009. The key trend is that the steep reduction in UK broadband net additions continued in Q2 2009, to 176,100 |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
September 2009 Access this report
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BT FY 2009-10 Q2 results: more progress on cost reduction
BT’s Q2 results, and improved guidance for the year to March 2010 provided further encouraging evidence of the new management team’s ability to take cost out of the business
However, the group is in a phase of revenue decline, primarily due to recession, but also strong competition
We continue to view limited deployment of next generation access as a worthwhile defensive move, but remain sceptical regarding the potential for uplift to shareholder value |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
November 2009 Access this report
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UK Residential Broadband Market
Annual market growth is dropping in line with our predictions over the past two years, despite some significant quarterly blips.We continue to project growth in 2009 to be significant, but much lower than in the past, with net additions of 1 million
We expect annual net additions in 2010 to drop by another 20% to 800,000 as the market becomes ever more saturated |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
November 2009 Access this report
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BT Retail 40 Mbit/s broadband: priced to sell
BT Retail has announced its intention to launch residential
40 Mbit/s broadband at similar price points to its existing two higher tier
broadband offers. While this looks unlikely on its own to create significant
additional shareholder value, it could eventually help BT retain existing value
The move is unlikely to seriously inconvenience other
players for the next year or so, but could encourage TTG and Sky to sign
wholesale deals with BT for higher speed broadband and, ultimately, make it
more likely that a demerged TTG is acquired by another player |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
January 2010 Access this report
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UK Next Generation Access and the Conservative policy for ‘nationwide superfast broadband’
The Conservative policy for broadband involves replacing
Labour’s proposed line rental tax with a portion of the TV licence fee, together with measures to encourage passive access to BT’s network and the use of alternative infrastructure
The policy sounds negative for BT, equivocal for VMed and
positive for Sky and TTG, but is unlikely to have a significant direct impact in the near term in the event of a Conservative government |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
February 2010 Access this report
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BT FY 2009/10 Q3 results: recovery continuing, but longer term outlook uncertain
BT’s Q3 results and improved guidance for the year to March 2010 showed the current turnaround is well on track. But revenue continued to decline and improvements were concentrated at Global Services, the results for which were flattered by the dire prior year comparable
The UK business’s long term prospects also depend on successful deployment of next generation access, but this is over two years away |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
February 2010 Access this report
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UK broadband and telephony trends to December 2009: broadband bounce
There were approximately 18.4 million fixed broadband lines in the UK at the end of Q4 2009 including those used by small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
Subscriber growth over the past year has continued to drop but the rate of decline has slowed to the lowest ever. Year-on-year subscriber growth in Q4 was 5.7%, only slightly down on Q3 |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
March 2010 Access this report
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Ofcom review of the wholesale local access market: small paper avalanche; nobody hurt
Ofcom’s consultation document on the UK wholesale local access market proposes a number of additional remedies for fixed access network operators with significant market power, but looks unlikely to have a major impact on the ability of either BT or competing players to make money from next generation access
The consultation is one element in a subtle power struggle between BT and the major competing service providers over the terms under which Openreach provides wholesale NGA products |
Media, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
March 2010 Access this report
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Sky and the Competition Appeal Tribunal order on interim relief
Implementation of Ofcom’s wholesale must-offer (WMO) remedy for Sky Sports 1 and 2 is to proceed while the Competition Appeal Tribunal (CAT) hears Sky’s appeal, but subject to conditions which include restricting it to three parties: Virgin Media, BT and Top-Up TV
The settlement marks an important concession by Sky on the principle of enforced wholesale, and seems implicitly to reduce the WMO issue to one of price |
Media, TV |
May 2010 Access this report
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BT 2009/10 Q4 results: strong cost control and better visibility, but a tough year ahead
BT met its guidance for the year to March 2010, although the improvement this quarter was more modest and concentrated at Global Services
New guidance gives an exceptional level of visibility over the next three years which, although welcome, reflects the challenges which lie ahead
BT has stepped smartly back from the brink but, as management concedes, there is much left to do, particularly at Global Services, which continues to burn cash
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Fixed line, Telecoms |
May 2010 Access this report
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Project Canvas and the future of television
Subject to BBC Trust approval, Canvas looks almost certain to launch in spring 2011 after the OFT decided that it did not have the jurisdiction to review Canvas under the merger provisions of the Enterprise Act 2002. The OFT decision does not rule out complaints on other grounds, but the chances of persuading the regulators look very small |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
June 2010 Access this report
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UK broadband and telephony trends to March 2010
There were approximately 18.7 million fixed broadband lines in the UK at the end of March 2010 including those used by small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
Year-on-year subscriber growth in Q1 increased for the first time since the early years of the industry, although the increase, from 5.7% to 5.9% was very slight. In our view it should be interpreted as a stabilisation |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
June 2010 Access this report
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Sky Sports on BT Vision: an expensive defence
BT’s launch of Sky Sports should help reduce customer churn to Sky and other competitors, although we expect the extent of ‘win back’ to be modest
The financial impact on BT should be positive but of limited significance at group level due to the negative margin involved on the Sky Sports element of the bundle
Sky is likely to deploy a number of countermeasures that may negate some of the benefits to BT |
Media, TV |
July 2010 Access this report
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BT Q1 2010/11 results: strong cost control, but impact of government spending review remains uncertain
BT continues to improve its performance through cost reduction, with Global Services continuing to lead the way
Although a strike appears to have been averted, the next few quarters will be tougher due to increased EBITDA ‘re-investment’
Management is sticking to guidance which is, like the government, conservative in nature. Nonetheless, in our view, the forthcoming government spending review could still prove challenging |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2010 Access this report
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UK broadband and telephony trends to June 2010
There were approximately 19 million fixed broadband lines in the UK at the end of June 2010 including those used by small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
Year-on-year subscriber growth in Q2 increased by half a percentage point, following stabilisation in Q1, the first material since the early years of UK broadband |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2010 Access this report
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Ofcom gives YouView clearance
Ofcom’s decision not to investigate Project Canvas under the Competition Act removes one more regulatory obstacle to the launch of the broadband connected TV service with the brand name YouView
It looks increasingly as if the YouView launch will experience further delay, with autumn 2011 looking steadily more likely as disputes continue over the satisfactoriness of the technical specifications released by YouView for meeting manufacturer needs |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2010 Access this report
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