Platform wars, app stores and ecosystems
Around 125m smartphones and over 20m tablets were sold in Q4 2011. If tablets are included, Apple is now the largest PC manufacturer, while smartphones are now outselling PCs
These devices are the battleground for a war of ecosystems in which Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android platforms are dominant and others are hoping for third place at best. iOS and Android sold around 92m units in Q4 and now have an active base between them of around 515m devices
Samsung now accounts for at least half of Android sales and is in some senses more of a rival to Apple than Android itself |
Media, Technology, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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Enders Analysis' Annual Conference
Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 19 January 2012. The event featured talks by 13 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. An edited transcript of notes taken during the speaker presentations follows. |
Media, Technology, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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PC and mobile UK internet trends H2 2011
Three drivers are increasing UK internet consumption: a growing number of older PC internet users; digital natives, especially younger people with high incomes, spending more time online; and rising adoption of the mobile internet
Despite rapid mobile user growth, internet usage remains a PC-centric experience as time spent on mobile is constrained by screen size, ‘on the go’ use and data pricing. These factors are less likely to inhibit tablet use |
Media, Internet |
February 2012 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q4 2011: from bad to worse
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
March 2012 Access this report
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Themes from Mobile World Congress
Mobile operators, services and handset makers are diverging – they all come to the MWC but have increasingly little to say to each other as their businesses move in very different directions
In the context of -5% European mobile revenue growth, the MNOs at the MWC were a sober bunch, focusing on industrial services, defensive moves around messaging, and a (not unreasonable) plea to regulators for some relief |
Mobile, Telecoms |
March 2012 Access this report
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Google+: hollow circles
Google+, the social network, has around 100 million users worldwide, although user growth appears to have stalled and usage is low on weak network effects
Facebook users, now 70% of the adult internet audience (excluding China), have no incentive to switch to Google+, starving the social network of vital momentum
Facebook is likely to dominate socially enhanced search, unless Google+ takes off, which seems unlikely |
Media, Internet |
March 2012 Access this report
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UK mobile advertising begins to take off
UK mobile advertising jumped 157% year-on-year to £203 million in 2011, marginally higher than our forecast of £180 million, with strong growth in both search and display
Mobile advertising now accounts for 6% of internet search and display spend, but still lags mobile devices’ share of internet consumption, which has been rising strongly due to rapid smartphone and tablet adoption, and we estimate is now at around 15%
We expect much of the lag between mobile’s share of internet consumption and ad spend to disappear over the next five years, indicating continued high growth |
Media, Mobile, Internet, Telecoms |
March 2012 Access this report
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UK internet advertising powers ahead
According to IABUK/PwC, internet advertising grew 14.4% like-for-like in 2011 to £4.8 billion, overtaking press to become the single largest advertising medium
Search was again the main growth driver, surging 17.5% to £2.7 billion last year, while display rose 13.4% and classifieds increased just 5.2% on the weak economy
We now forecast internet advertising will increase 14% in 2012 and 12% in 2013, taking spend to £6.1 billion or 36% of UK advertising, up from 30% in 2011 |
Media, Mobile, Internet, Telecoms |
April 2012 Access this report
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Facebook display ad volume down in key markets in April
Analysis of comScore data suggests that ad volumes fell in April on Facebook’s PC-based website in the US and UK, which we estimate account for 60% of ad revenue Seasonal effects may account for some of the decline, but increasing pressure on ad performance and pricing, due to the tough economic climate, and slowing growth in PC usage of Facebook are other probable factors As a result we expect Facebook’s ad revenue growth slowdown to continue in Q2, with audience saturation in key internet markets and increasing mobile substitution limiting future growth potential from display advertisin |
Media, Internet |
June 2012 Access this report
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UK internet advertising forecasts for 2012/2013
Recent news flow and feedback from media buyers indicates that growth in UK internet advertising is slowing due to the ongoing weakness in the economy
Paid search, buttressed by its link to e-commerce and measurable ROI, is suffering less than internet display, with growth in spend on social media slowing and price deflation especially for non-premium inventory
Online classifieds are also being hit by the economic woe, resulting in some sectors growing more slowly and non-advertising communications taking a larger share of spend; the secular shift to the internet continues |
Media, Internet |
June 2012 Access this report
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UK mobile user survey 2012: networks over handsets (apart from the iPhone)
In this report we show the findings of our 2012 UK mobile user survey. The report is a wide ranging analysis of the mobile market based on our consumer research, focusing on the competitive landscape among the mobile operators and smartphone manufacturers, and the changing consumer behaviour that has and will continue to impact the market |
Mobile, Telecoms |
June 2012 Access this report
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Tablets: Google and Microsoft try for second place [2012-068]
Apple sold 67m iPads through March 2012, and retains over 70% market share for premium tablets. Apple is aiming for the same long term dominance it enjoyed with the iPod, which maintained similar market share for a decade Microsoft and Google are taking radical steps to try to change this. Both are now making and selling their own hardware, while Google will sell a tablet at cost Microsoft and Google now have coherent tablet propositions, but they remain far behind on broader app ecosystems. Like Nokia, they are now back in the game, but they still have to play |
Media, Technology |
July 2012 Access this report
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Google winning battle for internet display
Search remains the main engine for Google’s core business, but display is rising fast: we estimate display gross revenue will reach $9.2 billion in 2013, representing 16% of projected gross revenue (excluding Motorola)
Gross revenue from YouTube looks set to more than double to nearly $4 billion by 2013. Revenues from Google’s ad networks and platforms are also growing strongly, mainly to the benefit of publishers
We project Google’s net revenue from display next year will amount to $4.2 billion, equal to 10% of net revenue from its total advertising business |
Media, Internet |
August 2012 Access this report
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Mobile platforms update, Q2 2012: Apple. Android, Samsung and Facebook
Around 125m smartphones were sold globally in Q2, up over 30% from Q2 2011. Around 450m mobile handsets were sold in the quarter, giving smartphones a volume share of around 28% Apple and Android dominate with a combined of 85% of units sold, and a cumulative total of 810m devices running their mobile platforms. Of these we estimate that 680m are active, of which 95m are tablets Android arrived later and has grown faster, but Apple’s market share of smartphones as been steady at 20-25% for several years: Android’s growth has come at the expense of Nokia, RIM and feature phones |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Technology, Telecoms |
August 2012 Access this report
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Apple, Samsung, Patents and Android
A US jury has found Samsung infringed Apple’s patents with Android products and awarded $1bn damages. This is 17% of Samsung’s Q2 operating profit and would be crippling to any other Android OEM: it sends ripples of uncertainty through the ecosystem.
We expect the verdict to accelerate IP licensing between Apple and other Android OEMs, with Apple (like Nokia and other IP holders) levying a fee per device, though Google’s ownership of Motorola may mitigate this somewhat. |
Technology, Telecoms |
August 2012 Access this report
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Google: mobile hits margin
Google’s income in Q3 was hit by fx headwinds and a rise in traffic acquisition costs (TAC) for its ad business as well as by higher than expected losses at Motorola
Headline growth in gross advertising revenue continued to slide, primarily due to the effect of the strong dollar; of more concern, rising TAC cut gross margin by 3 ppts
Mobile now accounts for the majority of growth in ad revenue, which should improve as mobile ad yields rise, though net margin could decline if Google has to pay out a greater share to partners such as Apple |
Media, Internet |
October 2012 Access this report
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UK local media: a holy grail?
This report explores and quantifies expenditure in the local media landscape. Flat disposable income and the rise in e-commerce continue to force many retailers from the high street, though we argue first-rate small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have the opportunity to grow share of the local market, despite these pressures |
Media, Press, Internet |
December 2012 Access this report
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YouTube’s Original Channels venture
YouTube continues to evolve away from user-generated content with the expansion of its native Original Channels initiative in the US, Europe and Japan
Professional and semi-professional content is key to increasing YouTube’s sellable video inventory, raising advertising yield and attracting brand advertisers
Whilst YouTube is the leading global distribution platform for professional short-form video, it poses little immediate threat to TV viewing or revenues |
Media, TV, Internet |
January 2013 Access this report
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Facebook finally trials social search
Facebook’s announcement of Graph Search, the company’s first move into socially-powered search which now in beta trial in the US, leaves many details unanswered including full launch and monetisation plans. Reliance on user-generated content from Facebook friends limits the usefulness of Graph Search as a conventional search engine and hence its impact on Google and other web search businesses in the near term. |
Media, Internet |
January 2013 Access this report
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Media & Telecoms: 2013 & Beyond (part 1)
Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 15 January 2013. The event featured talks by 14 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Press, Internet, Music and Radio, Technology, Telecoms |
January 2013 Access this report
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