Numericable: beyond deleveraging
France’s sole cable operator, the smallest of the country’s five broadband providers, is sub-scale on the retail market and the heavy cost of servicing its debt leaves only meagre resources to leverage its superior network commercially
However, thanks to its white label deal with Bouygues, Numericable has resumed revenue growth and should achieve its 2014 debt/EBITDA target
As France Télécom’s network upgrade to fibre progresses, the main upside for Numericable lies in a closer alliance with Bouygues and possibly other DSL providers |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
|
Iliad gears up its investment
Iliad accelerated fixed line subscriber recruitment in 2011 thanks to a substantial increase in capital expenditure on its Révolution box, shrinking its cash flow margin
Iliad’s margin should recover somewhat in 2012 thanks to decreasing box prices. Fibre deployment is being scaled back due to weak demand
Mobile operating losses may be modest this year, but we expect pressure will build up in 2013 as network running costs rise and the termination rate asymmetry drops out |
Mobile, Fixed line, Telecoms |
March 2012 Access this report
|
Launch of Free Mobile
The launch of the fourth mobile network operator in France has so far met with dramatic success, gaining around 1.5 million subscribers in the first month, driven by rock-bottom pricing and a clever mass media PR campaign
Its tariffs are, however, so low that it is very hard to see how they are sustainable in the longer term. In the short term, Free’s economics are boosted by asymmetric voice and text termination rates that result in other operators’ customers effectively subsidising Free subscribers by €5 to €10 a month |
Media, Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
|
Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q3 2011: The outlook bleakens
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request |
Mobile, Telecoms |
November 2011 Access this report
|
French fixed line retail upheaval
French ISPs are about to enter a disruptive four month window of penalty-free broadband subscriber churn, triggered by the VAT rise on IPTV
SFR has followed Iliad’s Free by offering unmetered fixed-to-mobile calls at the risk of ARPU decline
We expect Free’s market share to stabilise, whilst those of SFR and Bouygues should rise to the detriment of Orange |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
January 2011 Access this report
|
Iliad’s Freebox V6
France’s Iliad will rekindle broadband subscriber recruitment with its Freebox V6 (router and TV set-top box), and extension of the triple play to include unmetered fixed-to-mobile calls
Freebox V6 is positioned as an innovative premium quasi-PC device including a 250GB PVR, a Blu-ray player, a game console and a web browser, re-establishing Iliad’s technology leadership
Iliad expects that V6 subscribers will be less profitable in the short term than in the medium term, but cumulative free cash flow guidance for the ADSL business remains unchanged for 2010-12 |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
December 2010 Access this report
|
French telecoms retail highlights
Late entrant Bouygues Telecom is gaining broadband market share via the quad play. Orange and SFR have now also launched quad plays, but Iliad’s mobile offers will be ready only in 2012
Iliad hopes to use its new Freebox to energise recruitment around new IPTV services in Q4 2010. SFR will also launch a new box
Led by a likely VAT hike for triple play bundled IPTV services in 2011, triple play pricing is set to rise after many years, from €30 to €35/month. FTTH upgrades in urban areas will be gaining visibility this winter |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
September 2010 Access this report
|
Iliad withstands new competitive pressures
France’s altnet Iliad again delivered stronger than expected profit and cash flow growth in 2009 on the back of continued strong results at the Free brand and a positive contribution from the Alice brand
These results demonstrate the continued pull of Free for the triple play customer despite intensifying competition, including from cable, making the low cost, low churn business model sustainable
By 2012, we expect fixed line profitability to increase and deliver enough cash flow to finance the launch of the Free Mobile project |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2010 Access this report
|
French fixed line 2009 corporate results
Despite the recession, in 2009 the French broadband market added 1.8 million connections to reach 19.6 million, but we expect the deceleration in growth to persist in 2010
Orange’s leading position weakened further in Q4 2009, despite retail price cuts, and we expect a further decline in market share in 2010, impacting FT’s top-line |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
March 2010 Access this report
|
Broadband, IPTV and Fibre in France
This report on the French broadband market examines growth trends in 2009 and forecasts to 2012, updates our previous assessments of the commercial significance of IPTV in the triple play (a bundle of broadband, telephony and TV), and details the state of fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) deployment |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
November 2009 Access this report
|
Iliad unopposed for 4th mobile licence
Iliad is the only candidate in the rerun of the French 4th 3G Licence tender and we believe its bid will be successful
Free Mobile could launch by the autumn of 2011 under a ‘low cost’ model
We remain doubtful on the venture’s economic prospects – Iliad appears to underestimate the network and subscriber acquisition costs required to build a mobile operator of profitable scale |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
October 2009 Access this report
|
Iliad’s 2008 results and prospects
Iliad, now France’s number two broadband provider, will increase total revenues by 10% per year by 2012, mainly by growing its subscriber base (rather than ARPU) in a market however rapidly reaching maturity
Excluding mobile, the EBITDA margin could rise by five percentage points to 40% in 2012, but a mobile launch in 2011 would pare the margin down to 32% |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2009 Access this report
|
French broadband: down to three players, for how long?
Just three players now account for most French broadband connections: Orange’s DSL market share is closing on 50%, Iliad’s rose to 25% from consolidation with Alice, while SFR’s dropped to 23.7%, with Neuf’s rebrand imminent. Cable remains a minimal presence on broadband |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
September 2008 Access this report
|
Iliad buys Alice
Iliad is to recover the No. 2 spot on the French broadband market, behind France Télécom’s Orange, after acquiring Alice, ending Telecom Italia’s ill fated five-year French venture |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
June 2008 Access this report
|
Iliad: consolidation, 3G licence and fibre
Iliad will be challenged to meet its target of a steady EBITDA margin of 36% in 2008 despite further cuts in mobile termination charges due to the continued drift of the subscriber mix to higher cost (for Iliad) full telephony packages. Some benefit to cash flow could result from reduced charges for one-off LLU services to be mandated by regulator ARCEP |
Mobile, Telecoms |
April 2008 Access this report
|
Fibre in France
France is the first major European market where a large scale fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) deployment is under way. Numericable and France Télécom, as well as unbundlers Iliad and Neuf Cegetel, are launching triple play offers over fibre to households. Public authorities actively support the plans, to boost France's growth prospects. This report examines the commercial context for fibre deployment in France |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
February 2008 Access this report
|
Iliad and 3G – the black hole beckons
Iliad is getting ever closer to securing the French 4th 3G licence on terms with which it is happy, with progress slow but seemingly inevitable, and a licence award likely in H2 2008 followed by service launch in 2010 |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
December 2007 Access this report
|
Neuf Cegetel
This report presents our analysis of Neuf Cegetel alongside that of close rival Iliad (which trades under the Free brand). Neuf and Iliad are France’s two leading unbundlers, are both quoted on the Euronext exchange and, since Neuf’s IPO in November 2006, have been assessed largely in parallel by investors. We anticipate Neuf's Investor Day on 12th September will provide analysts with greater detail on Neuf’s strategy to improve by 2010 its profitability to the level enjoyed by Iliad. |
Telecoms |
September 2007 Access this report
|
Iliad 2006 FY results
Iliad’s 2006 results were solid with broadband subscriber growth on target, DSL market share up one point to 19%, ARPU up 7% to €34.5/month and churn (enviably) at just below 1% per month. Over 1 million of Iliad’s subscribers have dropped France Télécom line rental and Iliad now completely owns those fixed-line telecoms customer relationships |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
March 2007 Access this report
|
Iliad - Destiny
Iliad is among the very few European altnets that have made unbundling a profitable business, despite France's highly contested market for broadband. This report examines Iliad's current positioning in this market, and the development of the media side of the triple play to grow ARPU and differentiate the brand |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
September 2006 Access this report
|
