Iliad in transition
Thanks to bargain prices, France’s Iliad managed to grab 5.2 million mobile subscribers in its first year and to increase its fixed broadband market share, while achieving close to cash flow breakeven at the Group level
In 2013 Free Mobile’s termination charges will fall back to parity with those of its competitors, dramatically shrinking its gross margin, and likely pushing mobile EBITDA firmly negative again |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2013 Access this report
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European mobile revenue growth and outlook Q4 2012: The rate of decline stabilises
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2013 Access this report
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Vodafone, KDG and quad play in Europe
German unbundlers are in decline, unable to match cable for price or bandwidth, or to invest in new fibre networks. Vodafone, the second largest unbundler, must choose between consolidating and divesting Merging with Kabel Deutschland would deliver fixed line synergies – with high execution risks. |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
March 2013 Access this report
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European mobile revenue growth and outlook Q3 2012: Nadir not yet reached, can 4G help?
European mobile market service revenue growth dropped again in Q3, by 1.9ppts to -6.2%. This was not helped by a substantial increase in the MTR impact, driven by a big cut in Italy, but underlying revenue growth still fell by 1.3ppts In stark contrast to Europe, the US mobile market continues to grow apace, with there being over 10ppts between the growth rates of the two regions. |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
December 2012 Access this report
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SFR and Numericable: a coax and copper merger?
Keen to reposition itself as a media conglomerate, Vivendi is considering merging SFR with private equity-owned Numericable and its B2B sister Completel, while reducing its stake in the new entity to below 50%.
Sizeable savings would come from migrating SFR’s fixed line subscribers in urban areas from Orange’s copper network to Numericable’s coax and FTTB, and from eliminating Completel’s LLU network and Numericable’s marketing spend. |
Mobile, Fixed line, Telecoms |
October 2012 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q2 2012: Growth drops, worse to come
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
August 2012 Access this report
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Orange premium TV R.I.P.
France’s Orange Sport closed last month after France Télécom declined to bid for a renewal of its four-year licence to broadcast Ligue 1 football. The future of its sister film channel, Orange Cinéma Séries, remains unclear.
The strategic aim for Orange Sport was confused from the start – standalone profit centre or loss leader, fully fledged alternative to Canal+ or add-on to it. |
Media, TV |
July 2012 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q1 2012: Modest improvements, but worse to come
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request. |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
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Numericable: beyond deleveraging
France’s sole cable operator, the smallest of the country’s five broadband providers, is sub-scale on the retail market and the heavy cost of servicing its debt leaves only meagre resources to leverage its superior network commercially
However, thanks to its white label deal with Bouygues, Numericable has resumed revenue growth and should achieve its 2014 debt/EBITDA target
As France Télécom’s network upgrade to fibre progresses, the main upside for Numericable lies in a closer alliance with Bouygues and possibly other DSL providers |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
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Iliad gears up its investment
Iliad accelerated fixed line subscriber recruitment in 2011 thanks to a substantial increase in capital expenditure on its Révolution box, shrinking its cash flow margin
Iliad’s margin should recover somewhat in 2012 thanks to decreasing box prices. Fibre deployment is being scaled back due to weak demand
Mobile operating losses may be modest this year, but we expect pressure will build up in 2013 as network running costs rise and the termination rate asymmetry drops out |
Mobile, Fixed line, Telecoms |
March 2012 Access this report
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Launch of Free Mobile
The launch of the fourth mobile network operator in France has so far met with dramatic success, gaining around 1.5 million subscribers in the first month, driven by rock-bottom pricing and a clever mass media PR campaign
Its tariffs are, however, so low that it is very hard to see how they are sustainable in the longer term. In the short term, Free’s economics are boosted by asymmetric voice and text termination rates that result in other operators’ customers effectively subsidising Free subscribers by €5 to €10 a month |
Media, Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q3 2011: The outlook bleakens
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request |
Mobile, Telecoms |
November 2011 Access this report
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French fixed line retail upheaval
French ISPs are about to enter a disruptive four month window of penalty-free broadband subscriber churn, triggered by the VAT rise on IPTV
SFR has followed Iliad’s Free by offering unmetered fixed-to-mobile calls at the risk of ARPU decline
We expect Free’s market share to stabilise, whilst those of SFR and Bouygues should rise to the detriment of Orange |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
January 2011 Access this report
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Iliad’s Freebox V6
France’s Iliad will rekindle broadband subscriber recruitment with its Freebox V6 (router and TV set-top box), and extension of the triple play to include unmetered fixed-to-mobile calls
Freebox V6 is positioned as an innovative premium quasi-PC device including a 250GB PVR, a Blu-ray player, a game console and a web browser, re-establishing Iliad’s technology leadership
Iliad expects that V6 subscribers will be less profitable in the short term than in the medium term, but cumulative free cash flow guidance for the ADSL business remains unchanged for 2010-12 |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
December 2010 Access this report
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French telecoms retail highlights
Late entrant Bouygues Telecom is gaining broadband market share via the quad play. Orange and SFR have now also launched quad plays, but Iliad’s mobile offers will be ready only in 2012
Iliad hopes to use its new Freebox to energise recruitment around new IPTV services in Q4 2010. SFR will also launch a new box
Led by a likely VAT hike for triple play bundled IPTV services in 2011, triple play pricing is set to rise after many years, from €30 to €35/month. FTTH upgrades in urban areas will be gaining visibility this winter |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
September 2010 Access this report
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Iliad withstands new competitive pressures
France’s altnet Iliad again delivered stronger than expected profit and cash flow growth in 2009 on the back of continued strong results at the Free brand and a positive contribution from the Alice brand
These results demonstrate the continued pull of Free for the triple play customer despite intensifying competition, including from cable, making the low cost, low churn business model sustainable
By 2012, we expect fixed line profitability to increase and deliver enough cash flow to finance the launch of the Free Mobile project |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2010 Access this report
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French fixed line 2009 corporate results
Despite the recession, in 2009 the French broadband market added 1.8 million connections to reach 19.6 million, but we expect the deceleration in growth to persist in 2010
Orange’s leading position weakened further in Q4 2009, despite retail price cuts, and we expect a further decline in market share in 2010, impacting FT’s top-line |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
March 2010 Access this report
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Broadband, IPTV and Fibre in France
This report on the French broadband market examines growth trends in 2009 and forecasts to 2012, updates our previous assessments of the commercial significance of IPTV in the triple play (a bundle of broadband, telephony and TV), and details the state of fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) deployment |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
November 2009 Access this report
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Iliad unopposed for 4th mobile licence
Iliad is the only candidate in the rerun of the French 4th 3G Licence tender and we believe its bid will be successful
Free Mobile could launch by the autumn of 2011 under a ‘low cost’ model
We remain doubtful on the venture’s economic prospects – Iliad appears to underestimate the network and subscriber acquisition costs required to build a mobile operator of profitable scale |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
October 2009 Access this report
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Iliad’s 2008 results and prospects
Iliad, now France’s number two broadband provider, will increase total revenues by 10% per year by 2012, mainly by growing its subscriber base (rather than ARPU) in a market however rapidly reaching maturity
Excluding mobile, the EBITDA margin could rise by five percentage points to 40% in 2012, but a mobile launch in 2011 would pare the margin down to 32% |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2009 Access this report
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