Transformation buds: ITV FY 2011 results
Year-on-year increases of 4% in total revenues, 13% in EBITA before exceptional items and positive net cash for the first time in seven years sees ITV much more strongly placed to handle future challenges post digital switchover
ITV continued to outperform the market by raising its share of TV NAR, whilst the early signs of revival in its content production business were particularly encouraging
Online still poses ITV the toughest challenges with regard to providing it with significant new revenue streams despite strong improvements in the audience metrics – an issue familiar to many |
Media, TV |
March 2012 Access this report
|
TV NAR forecasts: 2012-2016
With the economy drifting sideways, we have set our centre case forecasts at 0-1% average annual growth in TV NAR and assigned a low probability to a repeat of the hyper-cyclical downturn of 2008/9
Comparative international data show a pervasive long term weakness in display advertising trends across the developed world, while emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe take an increasing share of global budgets |
Media, TV |
January 2012 Access this report
|
Netflix faces uphill battle in the UK
The launch of Netflix in the UK and Ireland has ignited the debate on the threat from over-the-top video to pay-TV services from Sky, Virgin Media and BT
Unlike in the US, Netflix’s UK prospects and those of competitors such as Lovefilm, are fundamentally limited, given the availability of low priced pay-TV with strong on-demand components included for free
The impact of Netflix on the UK pay-TV industry is therefore likely to be even smaller than the (hard to discern) effect it has had in the US |
Media, TV, Internet, Technology |
January 2012 Access this report
|
Google TV in the UK: friends with few benefits
Nearly a year after rolling out Google TV in the US, Google has confirmed plans to launch its ‘smart TV’ operating platform in Europe and the UK by early 2012
To date, Google TV in the US has been a disappointment, with little broadcaster support and, until recently, expensive devices, resulting in low adoption
The content issue is likely to dog Google TV, both here and in other European markets; access to key broadcaster TV and video programming will be a major challenge |
Media, TV, Internet, Technology |
September 2011 Access this report
|
UK advertising growth slows to a crawl
Whilst UK GDP growth crawls along at a snail’s pace in 2011, (real) private consumption, its principal component, has been in sequential decline since Q4 2010, dragging consumer facing industries down
UK media are not equally affected. The internet continues to grow through search as well as display, but we expect TV NAR to be flat in 2011
Press advertising is worst affected by the downturn due to its exposure to retail advertising on top of the structural shift of classifieds to the internet |
Media, TV, Press, Internet, Music and Radio |
September 2011 Access this report
|
Starting the transformation: ITV interim 2011 results
ITV reported strong year-on-year growth in profits in H1 2011, enabling a substantial reduction of net debt and putting the company in a stronger position to invest in growth as it pursues its five year transformation plan
Important to longer term success, ITV Family share of viewing has held up, and ITV looks well placed to expand its market share of TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) over the next two years, albeit in an uncertain and challenging economic environment |
Media, TV |
August 2011 Access this report
|
Sunshine to showers: TV 2011 advertising update
We have revised our central case forecasts of total year-on-year NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) growth in 2011 from 5% to 1%, as the advertising outlook has progressively worsened since mid April
2011 is marked by a further round of consolidation in airtime sales and a number of noteworthy channel and programming changes
Channel 4 Sales, and above all its flagship Channel 4, appears the most challenged of the leading market players, while we expect the ITV group to continue to outperform the NAR market in the rest of 2011 and 2012 |
Media, TV |
June 2011 Access this report
|
Return to fitness: ITV preliminary 2010 results
2010 marked the recovery of lost ground since 2006 as ITV outperformed the TV advertising market, which saw year-on-year growth of 14-15%, and delivered £40 million in cost savings as well as benefitting from a further £20 million reduction in Channel 3 licence payments
The short term outlook for continued advertising revenue growth in 2011 looks promising in spite of the risks of renewed downturn due to uncertainties about the economy and retail spend
|
Media, TV |
March 2011 Access this report
|
TV NAR in 2011 and medium term outlook
Q1 2011 TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) has delivered strong year-on-year growth of about 8%, yet the monthly variations are large, with a predictably sharp decrease in March based on past year comparatives countered by a large Christmas-style upswing in the Easter and Royal Wedding month of April
After several years of decoupling total display and TV advertising trends from those in the broader economy due to negative structural causes, the underlying positive correlations are expected to reappear as the structural factors subdue |
Media, TV |
March 2011 Access this report
|
Ofcom gives YouView clearance
Ofcom’s decision not to investigate Project Canvas under the Competition Act removes one more regulatory obstacle to the launch of the broadband connected TV service with the brand name YouView
It looks increasingly as if the YouView launch will experience further delay, with autumn 2011 looking steadily more likely as disputes continue over the satisfactoriness of the technical specifications released by YouView for meeting manufacturer needs |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2010 Access this report
|
No quick fixes... fundamental change required: ITV interim 2010 results
The bounce back in H1 2010 advertising revenues (18% up over H1 2009), combined with extra cost savings, turned last year’s £72 million loss into this year’s £71 million profit; but could not disguise the need for transformation of a business overly dependent on an advertising model in long-term structural decline |
Media, TV |
August 2010 Access this report
|
Project Canvas and the future of television
Subject to BBC Trust approval, Canvas looks almost certain to launch in spring 2011 after the OFT decided that it did not have the jurisdiction to review Canvas under the merger provisions of the Enterprise Act 2002. The OFT decision does not rule out complaints on other grounds, but the chances of persuading the regulators look very small |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
June 2010 Access this report
|
Election winners and losers: revisited
A hung Parliament now appears the most likely outcome of the UK general election on 6 May, giving the Liberal Democrats influence, in terms of votes and seats, over the next government
Because the Lib Dems are ideologically closer to Labour than to the Conservatives, we anticipate their influence will favour the policy and regulatory status quo in media and telecommunications in relation to the proposals made by the Conservatives |
Media |
April 2010 Access this report
|
Winners and losers of the May 2010 general election
The outlook for ad-supported UK media businesses is brighter in the short term than in the medium term, irrespective of who wins the election, since fiscal tightening is inevitable early in the next parliament
We expect the Conservatives, should they win, to favour commercial media (Sky, ITV) over the BBC in general and in particular in the upcoming negotiations on the licence fee settlement post 2013
Super-fast broadband networks enjoy cross-party support, but Labour’s 50 pence landline tax was blocked by the Conservatives, who prefer to use a sm
|
Media |
April 2010 Access this report
|
Conservative proposals to tackle CRR
The proposal by the Conservatives to remove or to moderate Contract Rights Renewal if elected would put ministers back into the thick of competition issues
The Conservatives strongly supported the move to make the competition authorities independent of government in Enterprise Act 2002, and should this stance be reconsidered, the regulatory landscape for business would acquire a political dimension, to the detriment of UK business generally |
Media, TV |
March 2010 Access this report
|
Challenging future for internet TV aggregators
Hulu’s postponed UK launch, and the inability of SeeSaw and MSN to get carriage deals with the BBC and ITV, underscore the difficulty for internet TV aggregators of acquiring mainstream content
In-stream video advertising is nascent – we estimate it was worth just over 1% of UK TV ad spend last year – giving major channel operators/rights holders little incentive to syndicate their programming to online services
The future for ad-funded internet aggregators continues to look highly challenging, aside from YouTube, due to its audience scale and Google’s deep pockets |
Media, TV, Internet |
March 2010 Access this report
|
ITV FY 2009 results – Preparing for transformation
ITV survived the worst recession and advertising downturn in its history thanks to market outperformance, cost cutting and other measures that delivered a full year profit of £25 million despite a 7% decline in total revenues, largely the result of a £134 million drop in its core advertising revenues
With the worst of the recession past, the focus of the incoming management is on revival and sustainable earnings growth through a transformation that will make ITV increasingly less reliant on at best stable broadcast advertising revenues in the digital age |
Media, TV |
March 2010 Access this report
|
IFNCs and the politics of local news provision
The IFNC process remains on track, but the pilot contracts may not be signed off this side of the general election – if Labour wins the election, this will not be material to the pilots or the wider IFNC project in the Digital Economy Bill
Given their opposition to IFNCs, we expect a win for the Conservatives would halt the pilot negotiations – as well as the wider IFNC project
The Conservative plan appears to be the creation of a network of local media companies. We are sceptical that such LMCs would be commercially viable |
Media, TV, Press |
March 2010 Access this report
|
Court of Appeal verdict on Sky stake in ITV
The Court of Appeal’s (CA) dismissal of Sky’s second attempt to overturn the Competition Commission’s (CC) decision that it must reduce its 17.9% shareholding in ITV to below 7.5% makes it increasingly probable that Sky will comply with the CC ruling at some point during 2010/2011 |
Media, TV |
January 2010 Access this report
|
Ofcom airtime rules review and CRR clash
Ofcom’s plan to review commercial airtime rules in 2010 with an emphasis on deregulation clashes with the Competition Commission’s provisional decision to retain the Contract Rights Renewal remedy (CRR) as it is, other than to extend the ITV1 definition to include staggercast and HD variants |
Media, TV |
January 2010 Access this report
|
