The ITV merger ten years on
In 2003, the Competition Commission imposed the CRR remedy as a condition of the proposed merger of Carlton and Granada to allay advertiser fears that the new ITV plc would use its market power to leverage higher airtime prices on ITV1 CRR made it possible to stop the ITV1 premium from rising and yet the ITV1 premium has risen almost without a blip since 2003. |
Media, TV |
April 2013 Access this report
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The changing face of ITV: FY 2012 results
Highlights of 2012, which saw double digit EBITA growth for the third year running, included ITV outperformance of the advertising market, strong organic growth in ITV Studios and a large increase in Online, Pay & Interactive revenues The outlook for 2013 suggests that EBITA could see double digit growth for the fourth year running. |
Media, TV |
March 2013 Access this report
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The rise of connected viewing
The development of the Digital Britain infrastructure, introduction of tablets, increasing connectivity of TV sets and launch of on demand OTT services over the internet have greatly intensified interest in connected viewing and its impact on the traditional broadcast model No single source of audience measurement for viewing of long- and short- form video content across all screens yet exists, though current market data suggest that connected viewing occupies a c. |
Media, TV |
January 2013 Access this report
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TV advertising forecasts: 2012 - 2017
2012 has been a year of two halves, with TV NAR up by 2-3% in H1, plus the feel good factor of the Diamond Jubilee and London Olympics, but down by 1-1.5% across the full year as economic conditions have worsened in H2 2013 and 2014 promise to be especially taxing times with significant downside risks due to weakness in the economy, the squeeze on consumer disposable income and beginnings of real fiscal austerity On the upside, we expect negative structural pressures, caused by increases in CI delivery and online growth, to subside and conditions to improve from 2015 |
Media, TV |
November 2012 Access this report
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TV, non-linear and disruption
The linear TV broadcast industry has kept its oligopolistic structure remarkably intact over the last 50 years against a background of much technological innovation and re-regulation, but now faces a new wave of innovation that promises growth of non-linear at the expense of linear True disruption can only occur by solving the device challenge of developing on a mass scale new, compelling and innovative ways to access content, but so far non-linear has achieved a very small share of total viewing while linear viewing levels are as high as ever Although non-linear viewing may become substa |
Media, TV, Internet, Technology |
October 2012 Access this report
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YouView: better late than never
YouView, the hybrid DTT/IPTV service backed by the public service broadcasters, is here, but with an initial retail box price of £300 it will be heavily dependent on the subsidies offered by ISP distributors BT and TalkTalk The TV market has evolved since YouView’s conception in 2008, with many other internet-enabled options now available; its managed and integrated approach gives it some advantages but doesn’t make it a ‘must have’ We expect YouView to mainly appeal to Freeview and BT Vision upgraders and project take-up between 1-3 million TV homes by 2015, though if the product improve |
Media, TV, Internet, Technology |
July 2012 Access this report
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ITV/Channel 4 2012 viewing and NAR outlook
Further sharp year-on-year declines in viewing share by the leading commercial PSB channels, ITV1 and Channel 4, in Q1 2012 run contrary to the general stabilisation of viewing trends as Digital Switchover nears completion
The Channel 4 decline is more easily explained by exceptional factors, while closer examination of NAR trends suggest that ITV Family NAR has performed less well in recent quarters than results releases suggest |
Media, TV |
May 2012 Access this report
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Transformation buds: ITV FY 2011 results
Year-on-year increases of 4% in total revenues, 13% in EBITA before exceptional items and positive net cash for the first time in seven years sees ITV much more strongly placed to handle future challenges post digital switchover
ITV continued to outperform the market by raising its share of TV NAR, whilst the early signs of revival in its content production business were particularly encouraging
Online still poses ITV the toughest challenges with regard to providing it with significant new revenue streams despite strong improvements in the audience metrics – an issue familiar to many |
Media, TV |
March 2012 Access this report
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TV NAR forecasts: 2012-2016
With the economy drifting sideways, we have set our centre case forecasts at 0-1% average annual growth in TV NAR and assigned a low probability to a repeat of the hyper-cyclical downturn of 2008/9
Comparative international data show a pervasive long term weakness in display advertising trends across the developed world, while emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe take an increasing share of global budgets |
Media, TV |
January 2012 Access this report
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Netflix faces uphill battle in the UK
The launch of Netflix in the UK and Ireland has ignited the debate on the threat from over-the-top video to pay-TV services from Sky, Virgin Media and BT
Unlike in the US, Netflix’s UK prospects and those of competitors such as Lovefilm, are fundamentally limited, given the availability of low priced pay-TV with strong on-demand components included for free
The impact of Netflix on the UK pay-TV industry is therefore likely to be even smaller than the (hard to discern) effect it has had in the US |
Media, TV, Internet, Technology |
January 2012 Access this report
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Google TV in the UK: friends with few benefits
Nearly a year after rolling out Google TV in the US, Google has confirmed plans to launch its ‘smart TV’ operating platform in Europe and the UK by early 2012
To date, Google TV in the US has been a disappointment, with little broadcaster support and, until recently, expensive devices, resulting in low adoption
The content issue is likely to dog Google TV, both here and in other European markets; access to key broadcaster TV and video programming will be a major challenge |
Media, TV, Internet, Technology |
September 2011 Access this report
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UK advertising growth slows to a crawl
Whilst UK GDP growth crawls along at a snail’s pace in 2011, (real) private consumption, its principal component, has been in sequential decline since Q4 2010, dragging consumer facing industries down
UK media are not equally affected. The internet continues to grow through search as well as display, but we expect TV NAR to be flat in 2011
Press advertising is worst affected by the downturn due to its exposure to retail advertising on top of the structural shift of classifieds to the internet |
Media, TV, Press, Internet, Music and Radio |
September 2011 Access this report
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Starting the transformation: ITV interim 2011 results
ITV reported strong year-on-year growth in profits in H1 2011, enabling a substantial reduction of net debt and putting the company in a stronger position to invest in growth as it pursues its five year transformation plan
Important to longer term success, ITV Family share of viewing has held up, and ITV looks well placed to expand its market share of TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) over the next two years, albeit in an uncertain and challenging economic environment |
Media, TV |
August 2011 Access this report
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Sunshine to showers: TV 2011 advertising update
We have revised our central case forecasts of total year-on-year NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) growth in 2011 from 5% to 1%, as the advertising outlook has progressively worsened since mid April
2011 is marked by a further round of consolidation in airtime sales and a number of noteworthy channel and programming changes
Channel 4 Sales, and above all its flagship Channel 4, appears the most challenged of the leading market players, while we expect the ITV group to continue to outperform the NAR market in the rest of 2011 and 2012 |
Media, TV |
June 2011 Access this report
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Return to fitness: ITV preliminary 2010 results
2010 marked the recovery of lost ground since 2006 as ITV outperformed the TV advertising market, which saw year-on-year growth of 14-15%, and delivered £40 million in cost savings as well as benefitting from a further £20 million reduction in Channel 3 licence payments
The short term outlook for continued advertising revenue growth in 2011 looks promising in spite of the risks of renewed downturn due to uncertainties about the economy and retail spend
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Media, TV |
March 2011 Access this report
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TV NAR in 2011 and medium term outlook
Q1 2011 TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) has delivered strong year-on-year growth of about 8%, yet the monthly variations are large, with a predictably sharp decrease in March based on past year comparatives countered by a large Christmas-style upswing in the Easter and Royal Wedding month of April
After several years of decoupling total display and TV advertising trends from those in the broader economy due to negative structural causes, the underlying positive correlations are expected to reappear as the structural factors subdue |
Media, TV |
March 2011 Access this report
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Ofcom gives YouView clearance
Ofcom’s decision not to investigate Project Canvas under the Competition Act removes one more regulatory obstacle to the launch of the broadband connected TV service with the brand name YouView
It looks increasingly as if the YouView launch will experience further delay, with autumn 2011 looking steadily more likely as disputes continue over the satisfactoriness of the technical specifications released by YouView for meeting manufacturer needs |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2010 Access this report
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No quick fixes... fundamental change required: ITV interim 2010 results
The bounce back in H1 2010 advertising revenues (18% up over H1 2009), combined with extra cost savings, turned last year’s £72 million loss into this year’s £71 million profit; but could not disguise the need for transformation of a business overly dependent on an advertising model in long-term structural decline |
Media, TV |
August 2010 Access this report
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Project Canvas and the future of television
Subject to BBC Trust approval, Canvas looks almost certain to launch in spring 2011 after the OFT decided that it did not have the jurisdiction to review Canvas under the merger provisions of the Enterprise Act 2002. The OFT decision does not rule out complaints on other grounds, but the chances of persuading the regulators look very small |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
June 2010 Access this report
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Election winners and losers: revisited
A hung Parliament now appears the most likely outcome of the UK general election on 6 May, giving the Liberal Democrats influence, in terms of votes and seats, over the next government
Because the Lib Dems are ideologically closer to Labour than to the Conservatives, we anticipate their influence will favour the policy and regulatory status quo in media and telecommunications in relation to the proposals made by the Conservatives |
Media |
April 2010 Access this report
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