More news under the Sun: launch confirmed
News International is to launch the Sun on Sunday on 26 February, seven months after closing the News of the World
In the intervening period, Trinity Mirror has picked up the bulk of the 55% of NoW copies that have not entirely fallen out of the market since June 2011
The £150 million revenue once generated by NoW is diminished and dispersed among rival publishers and we estimate that even a triumphant launch would likely generate half to two thirds of the income of the closed title |
Media, Press |
February 2012 Access this report
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More news under the Sun?
Rumours that News International will consider launching a newspaper to replace the News of the World have circulated for months, and probably only one event can dispel them
Trinity Mirror has picked up the bulk of the 60% of NoW copies that have not entirely fallen out of the market since June 2011, and arguably the longer any launch is delayed the harder it will be for NI to attract them back |
Media, Press |
January 2012 Access this report
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National newspaper ABCs, September 2011
National newspaper circulation continued its inexorable decline in September, with daily circulation down 7% year-on-year, although we estimate retail sales value decline was marginal
Sunday popular and mid-market newspaper circulation fell 4% month-on-month, as News of the World buyers continue to drop out of the market; we estimate around a third of ex-readers have not migrated to another title |
Media, Press |
October 2011 Access this report
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ECJ Murphy judgment - Who will win?
The European Court of Justice (ECJ) judgment in the Portsmouth pub landlady case looks to have opened the door to legitimising the private or domestic use of decoders to watch premium sports and other pay-TV content outside the territories for which they were licensed
The outcome could prove to be a significant commercial opportunity for Sky to expand its overseas distribution among residential customers, but an extra test for the Football Association Premier League (PL) as it designs the next round of contracts with a view to at least maintaining current revenues |
Media, TV |
October 2011 Access this report
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Competitive pressures on the press: presentation to the Leveson Inquiry
In the context of his Inquiry, Lord Leveson invited Claire Enders, as “one of the UK’s foremost media business analysts”, to kick off the seminar series on the 6 October with a synoptic presentation on “Competitive pressures on the press”. The Inquiry is interested in understanding the market economics of the mainstream media, including the impact of technology
This presentation brings together our existing work on the newspaper and consumer magazines industry, with an emphasis on the former, highlighting the challenges to the print media of the internet |
Media, Press, Internet |
October 2011 Access this report
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Sky FY 2011 results: excellent year of delivery
Fiscal 2011 was a vintage year for Sky, which reported a 23% growth in operating profit and 51% increase in free cash flow as it started to reap the full benefits of its investment in multi-product growth
Q4 2011 showed signs that tougher economic conditions are starting to bite, although the sharp fall in TV product additions was balanced by a fourth consecutive bumper quarter in home communications, in which Sky outperformed the rest of the market |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
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UK press and News International: what next?
Trinity Mirror, Northern & Shell and DMGT helped the market more or less offset the absence of the News of the World, though impressive volumes have come at a price
More generally, newspaper circulations have a temporary reprieve, as strong newsflow but also discounts and marketing techniques have been deployed to attract readers
What happens next at News International, and also competitor responses, could soon change market dynamics again |
Media, Press |
July 2011 Access this report
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The regulation of news
The uncovering of criminal behaviour at one newspaper (so far) has led to a much broader review of how the press is regulated, seeking to put a stop to dishonest and unethical behaviour, legal or illegal, and touching on ownership, ethics and on the freedom of the press in general
However, much of investigative journalism relies on activities that are certainly dishonest and arguably open to prosecution: any new code and enforcement will need to rely on judgement and selectivity, not prescription |
Media, Press |
July 2011 Access this report
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Mail and Mirror to gain share as World ends
The closure of the News of the World will see Sunday national press circulation decline by nearly 1.8 million copies per week, taking it to little more than half its level in 2000
All titles will gain market share of circulation as a result, and we anticipate additional market share gains for the Mail on Sunday and Sunday Mirror, to more than 30% and nearly 20%, respectively
In the context of the decision to withdraw the bid for BSkyB, News Corp will consider all its options, either expanding its presence through a Sun on Sunday, or retreating altogether from the UK newspaper market |
Media, Press |
July 2011 Access this report
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Update on BSkyB forecasts
All the recent attention to BSkyB has had to do with the proposed News Corporation takeover and its impact on the share price. For the BSkyB business itself, we think the troubles of News International have so far had very little effect, as there is nothing to link the pay-TV operator Sky directly with the News of the World, the epicentre of the current judicial and political storm. Nothing, that is, apart from the Murdoch factor, which certainly seemed to do no harm to sales of the final News of the World edition on Sunday 10 July which topped 4.5 million. |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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What does ‘fit and proper’ mean?
Ofcom is entitled to consider whether News Corp is ‘fit and proper’ to own BSkyB’s channels, not the company itself
Precedent suggests that Ofcom will only be able to conclude that News Corp is unfit if the acquiring company’s directors are found guilty of a serious criminal offence. Suspicions, allegations and mistrust are absolutely not enough
We believe that Ofcom will only be able to assess whether News Corp is ‘fit and proper’ to own Sky channels after the transaction is concluded |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Press, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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The proposed acquisition of BSkyB: the process from now on
We expect Jeremy Hunt to announce the fine details of the proposal to give editorial independence to Sky News within the next few days. After a perfunctory further consultation, the regulatory barriers to the purchase of BSkyB by News Corp will be cleared in July
News Corp will need to reach agreement with BSkyB over price and only then can proceed with its proposal for a ‘scheme of agreement’ to take over the company. We expect the purchase to be concluded by about the middle of October if BSkyB cooperates, but early in 2012 if News Corp is forced to use a takeover bid |
Media, TV |
June 2011 Access this report
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News Corp proposed takeover of BSkyB
In the attached note we present our analysis of BSkyB revenue and cost trends over the five years 2006 - 2010 and our forecasts to 2015 |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
June 2011 Access this report
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The ebooks explosion
Market data and industry anecdote point to an explosion in ebook sales in the US and UK in 2011. Leading consumer publishers are seeing ebook sales at 10-15% of total sales in January and February, driven by Christmas device sales
So far ebooks had been strongest in niches: romance, business books and frequent travellers. They have now moved into the mass market: few genres will be untouched |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
April 2011 Access this report
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The New York Times and pay models
The New York Times is shortly to switch its free desktop and app services into a part-free and part-paid metered system. We also expect the UK Times to switch from its subscription ‘Berlin wall’ to a similar system
In the UK, quality newspaper circulation is moving into freefall, as smartphone and tablet devices provide target consumers with 24/7 news coverage on the sofa and on the move |
Media, Press, Internet |
March 2011 Access this report
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Sky News
The concept of demerging Sky News is evidently a plausible one and we consider it very unlikely that critics of the deal will have much success undermining its appropriateness as a protection of plurality
However, it is harder to judge whether the proposed implementation secures the channel’s independence as fully and clearly as it might |
Media, TV, Press |
March 2011 Access this report
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The Daily Cloud – Murdoch, publishers and Apple
With the Daily, Rupert Murdoch has launched an iPad-only mass market ‘newspaper’ with a fifth of the journalists and just 15% of the revenue per reader of a conventional popular newspaper. Whether it succeeds or not, this sort of radicalism may be essential if the spirit of newspapers is to survive
The Daily is using every tool Apple and the social web can give it to drive adoption, but for all the video and twitter feeds it remains at heart a print product on a tablet. The first truly native iPad news voice has yet to come |
Media, Mobile, Press, Internet, Telecoms |
February 2011 Access this report
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Will News Corp’s best and final offer be enough?
Jeremy Hunt announced on 25 January his intention to refer News Corp’s bid for BSkyB to the Competition Commission
However, he is first providing News Corp with the opportunity to address Ofcom’s concerns, and in so doing protecting his department and Ofcom from any legal threats
If Ofcom or the OFT say the News Corp remedies don’t go far enough, Jeremy Hunt will be then almost obliged to refer the transaction to the CC |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Press, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
January 2011 Access this report
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Newspapers: Good news, bad news
National newspaper advertising revenues should be up 6-8% year-on-year in 2010, with ‘popular’ titles in particular attracting display ads from national retailer brands
Local and regional press advertising revenues will fall by about 6% year-on-year, mainly on the continued decline of recruitment classifieds
Publishers are exploring more efficient printing, new digital models, and staking a claim on e-commerce |
Media, Press, Internet |
December 2010 Access this report
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Sky Italia and Sky Deutschland
This report on Sky Italia and Sky Deutschland, News Corporation’s Continental Europe pay-TV assets, complements our coverage of BSkyB in the UK. We look at the market environment, including regulation and competition. The report also provides subscriber, revenue and earnings forecasts and SWOT analysis. |
Media, TV, Non-UK Media |
October 2010 Access this report
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