Pay-TV Sky still blue: fiscal Q2 2009 results
Strong Q2 results announced on Wednesday 28th January 2009 provided no evidence of negative impact so far due to the current recession
Sky+ HD looks set to provide a major growth opportunity, especially with the Sky+ HD box prices now dropping to £49. That and another record quarter for Sky+ take-up strengthens the view that Sky will meet its target of 10 million pay-TV subscribers by the end of 2010 with room to spare |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
January 2009 Access this report
|
Sky Five Setanta One
The Premier League has succeeded in obtaining a 4.4% increase in live televised rights payments from £1,706 million to £1,782 million for the next three year contract commencing with the 2010/11 football season
The big surprise was that Sky bid more than last time round (by an estimated factor of circa 7.5% for its current four packages), while Setanta bid roughly 20% less for its two packages, thereby losing one to Sky |
Media, TV |
February 2009 Access this report
|
UK broadband and telephony market Q4 2008
UK broadband subscriber growth continued to decline in Q4 2008 year-on-year. We expect declining growth throughout 2009, with the growth rate remaining positive, but in single figures |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
March 2009 Access this report
|
UK pay-TV in 2009: recession and competition concerns
Leading pay-TV operators Sky and Virgin Media (VMed) have shown little sign of recessionary damage in 2008 and the outlook for Q1 2009 remains positive. Difficulties are apparent at complementary pay-TV service provider Setanta
Ofcom’s pay-TV investigation enters its final stages in 2009. Ofcom faces a formidable challenge to devise a workable wholesale must-offer solution for premium film and sports content that fosters competition across all platforms |
Media, TV |
April 2009 Access this report
|
Sky FY 2009 Q3 results: recession-resistant
Another strong quarter of pay-TV subscriber growth, marked by record Sky+ HD sales, indicated continued resistance to recessionary pressures, supported by flat costs other than those associated with accelerated HD take-up
Results for the telecoms business again displayed strong volume growth in an increasingly difficult market. But original guidance for broadband subscribers, breakeven and standalone IRR looks challenging |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
April 2009 Access this report
|
Setanta: sink, float or swim?
Against current annual losses in the order of £100 million, Setanta has the whole of June in which to attract the necessary investment that will allow it to continue. The alternative is closure
As complementary supplier of premium sports channels to Sky, Setanta has been more vulnerable to recessionary pressures, but it is not in the interest of any of its existing competitors/business associates for it to cease operations |
Media, TV |
May 2009 Access this report
|
Sky leads race for Virgin Media's VMtv
According to press reports, Sky has lodged a bid of about £160 million for the VMtv content arm of Virgin Media (VMed), estimated to be 50-60% higher than other offers in the latest and final round of the bidding contest
At TalkTalk Group (TTG) net broadband additions for the quarter were relatively strong, given likely market growth, probably due at least in part to reduced subscriber loss at AOL UK
In our view cut-price business broadband, rather than IPTV, offers the best prospect of profitable revenue growth in fixed line |
Media |
June 2009 Access this report
|
Ofcom statement on LLU pricing: gently does it
Ofcom’s recent statement on LLU pricing has increased the amount which BT Openreach can charge unbundlers for full LLU over the next two years by about 8% overall
We estimate the changes will raise BT group EBITDA by less than 1% over the two years to March 2011
TalkTalk Group’s recent retail price increase is more than enough to offset the impact of Ofcom’s ruling on its annual EBITDA to March 2010, but the ruling could still take 5% off annual EBITDA to March 2011 |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
June 2009 Access this report
|
Ofcom pay-TV consultation: end of round three
There is a reasonable chance that, by the middle of 2010, Ofcom will introduce regulations concerning the availability and pricing of wholesale premium movie and sports content, as outlined in its third pay-TV consultation released on 26th June 2009
The Ofcom wholesale remedy proposals are likely to provide rival retailers to Sky with modest benefits in new customer acquisition and customer retention in the first three years, whilst opening up the prospect of wider competition as the broadband infrastructure develops |
Media, TV |
June 2009 Access this report
|
Sky fiscal FY2009 closes on the best quarter ever?
Fiscal FY 2009 closed on a very strong note, with record Sky+ HD additions contributing to Q4 net growth of 124,000, the highest Q4 increase since 2003, and opening up the opportunity for a large increase in TV operating margins after absorption of the initial subscriber acquisition costs |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2009 Access this report
|
ESPN and Sky - The new complementary premium sports duo
According to recent speculation, Sky stands to benefit materially in the short-term from the replacement of Setanta by ESPN, but could suffer from rights inflation and worse in the longer term should ESPN become really successful
ESPN’s commitment to a pure wholesale channel distribution model across all platforms and lower outlay on rights gives a real chance of building a viable business where Setanta failed |
Media, TV |
August 2009 Access this report
|
UK broadband and telephony markets Q2 2009
This report looks at the UK broadband and telephony market up to Q2 2009. The key trend is that the steep reduction in UK broadband net additions continued in Q2 2009, to 176,100 |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
September 2009 Access this report
|
Sky Songs: Does the music get any cheaper?
Just-launched Sky Songs offers a ‘new’ online music model, combining on- demand streaming with credit towards DRM-free downloads, for a single monthly payment
Sky Songs combines the best features of Spotify and iTunes, with lower average per track prices for in-bundle downloads, which will appeal to the music purchaser, and drive industry revenues provided regular use is made of the service
Sky Songs is backed by the power of Sky’s brand, serving the UK’s most entertainment-conscious clientele, with initial promotions targeting Sky’s 2.2 million broadband customers |
Media, TV, Music and Radio |
October 2009 Access this report
|
2010 off to a good start: Sky fiscal Q1 2010 results
Latest fiscal Q1 2010 results show continuation of the strong subscriber and revenue growth trends, but as Sky forges ahead of its rival pay-TV operators so attention is turning to competition issues |
Media, TV |
October 2009 Access this report
|
The future progress of Ofcom's pay-TV review
Three years into its pay-TV investigation, we expect Ofcom to impose a wholesale must-offer obligation with regulated prices on the Sky premium films and sports channels in its final statement scheduled for Q1 2010
The WMO could take effect by the middle of 2010. It appears unlikely that Sky will be granted a stay of implementation whilst its appeals against the lawfulness and substance of the WMO remedy are being heard |
Media, TV |
November 2009 Access this report
|
BT Retail 40 Mbit/s broadband: priced to sell
BT Retail has announced its intention to launch residential
40 Mbit/s broadband at similar price points to its existing two higher tier
broadband offers. While this looks unlikely on its own to create significant
additional shareholder value, it could eventually help BT retain existing value
The move is unlikely to seriously inconvenience other
players for the next year or so, but could encourage TTG and Sky to sign
wholesale deals with BT for higher speed broadband and, ultimately, make it
more likely that a demerged TTG is acquired by another player |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
January 2010 Access this report
|
Court of Appeal verdict on Sky stake in ITV
The Court of Appeal’s (CA) dismissal of Sky’s second attempt to overturn the Competition Commission’s (CC) decision that it must reduce its 17.9% shareholding in ITV to below 7.5% makes it increasingly probable that Sky will comply with the CC ruling at some point during 2010/2011 |
Media, TV |
January 2010 Access this report
|
Sky fiscal H1 2010 results: high on HD, 3D to come
Sky fiscal H1 2010 results show continued resilience in the face of weak economic conditions, delivering strong net subscriber growth, a big lift in ARPU, and a record lift in HD subscriptions, almost 200,000 up on any previous quarter and only just short of the half a million mark
Sky+ HD is now manifestly the centre point of a three-pronged operational strategy that focuses on driving customer growth, selling more products into the customer base and seeking efficiencies in fixed costs |
Media, TV |
January 2010 Access this report
|
Can Sky deliver a German pay-TV turnaround?
The News Corp management has given Sky Deutschland a full and costly revamp in 2009, leading to a steep year on year increase in negative EBITDA of around €200 million
Underlying trends of improvement in net subscriber additions, ARPU growth and churn reduction, assisted by its HD offer, suggest that Sky management will get close to, if not actually meet, its 2011 breakeven target
However, there are significant downside risks in the historically tough German pay-TV market, and robust profitable growth beyond 2012 presents a real challenge |
Media, TV, Non-UK Media |
March 2010 Access this report
|
UK broadband and telephony trends to December 2009: broadband bounce
There were approximately 18.4 million fixed broadband lines in the UK at the end of Q4 2009 including those used by small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
Subscriber growth over the past year has continued to drop but the rate of decline has slowed to the lowest ever. Year-on-year subscriber growth in Q4 was 5.7%, only slightly down on Q3 |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
March 2010 Access this report
|
