SFR and Numericable: a coax and copper merger?
Keen to reposition itself as a media conglomerate, Vivendi is considering merging SFR with private equity-owned Numericable and its B2B sister Completel, while reducing its stake in the new entity to below 50%.
Sizeable savings would come from migrating SFR’s fixed line subscribers in urban areas from Orange’s copper network to Numericable’s coax and FTTB, and from eliminating Completel’s LLU network and Numericable’s marketing spend. |
Mobile, Fixed line, Telecoms |
October 2012 Access this report
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Recorded music 2012: edging to a new dawn
This report contains our annual assessment and forecasts for recorded music, in the context, as always, of the implacable physical-to-digital transition in music consumption and purchase, which continues to drain the topline of the recorded music industry.
Although 2011 was another year of decline in global recorded music retail sales, these fell just 4% in 2011 compared to 10% in the previous year, on a strong year for the album in the top markets, notably Adele’s 21 album. |
Media, Music and Radio |
July 2012 Access this report
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US music publishers reach royalty agreements
US music publishers have reached agreement on rolling over the mechanical royalties due on sales of digital and physical music formats for 2013-17
The expanded scope of the statute to cover ‘scan and match’ cloud locker services, such as Apple’s iTunes Match, provides incremental revenues to music publishers; the unlicensed ‘storage’ cloud locker services are not concerned
ASCAP’s agreement on US radio performance royalties will however reduce music publisher revenues |
Media, Music and Radio, Non-UK Media |
April 2012 Access this report
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Canal+ bursts into free TV
Advancing its free-to-air TV project, France’s Canal+ is to buy Bolloré TV’s national channels for €465 million to gain (scarce) licences for FTA terrestrial broadcast
Canal+ plans to leverage its library of original programming to attract upscale audiences, neglected by commercial rivals
However, the Vivendi investment case of a 9% return on capital is built on incompatible assumptions about profit margins and market share – to grow the latter in a mature market, a channel needs to sacrifice the former |
Media, TV |
September 2011 Access this report
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Recorded Music and Music Publishing 2011
This report provides our annual assessment and forecasts for recorded music sales and music publishing revenues, which engage all four of the ‘majors’ – Universal Music Group (UMG), EMI, Sony and Warner Music Group (WMG). In the context of the ongoing physical-to-digital transition of music consumption, retailing and buying, documented in the report, we estimate a 10% decline in recorded music sales to $18.4 billion in 2010, the sixth consecutive year of decline. We also project further overall declines in our forecast period to 2015. |
Media, Music and Radio |
July 2011 Access this report
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Canal+ France prospectus
Canal+ France has issued a prospectus in view of the April flotation of Lagardère’s 20% stake, which could still reach an agreement to sell with majority owner Vivendi
The prospectus provides a unique insight on the performance of Canal+, which has increased ARPU and profitability in the past three years, despite erosion of its subscriber base due to competitive pressures and the recession
Management’s revenue and profit targets for 2013 appear within reach, and we also see potential upsides |
Media, TV, Non-UK Media |
March 2011 Access this report
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France: Update on free-to-air and pay-TV
The digital transition is almost complete in France, five years after the launch of DTT. After undergoing an audience share decline, TF1's share is stabilising. In contrast, M6 improved its audience share during the transition. Both groups are likely to remain dominant in the FTA TV market, thanks to the partial withdrawal of public TV from advertising sales
The advertising recovery in 2010 was strong. Thanks to its diversification, M6 is less exposed to the cycle than TF1, which is rebounding more strongly. M6 is also structurally more profitable |
Media, TV, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
December 2010 Access this report
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Vivendi scenarios for 2011
Vivendi is close to being in a cash position to buy out minority shareholdings in SFR and Canal+, shedding the image of a ‘conglomerate’ of partly owned and diverse assets, which has weighed on valuation Acquiring Vodafone’s 44% stake in SFR (now only a question of price) would allow Vivendi to rebrand itself as a telecoms story, serving France, with Maroc Télécom and mainly Brazil’s GVT supplying the upside To fully acquire Canal+, Vivendi’s offer will need to consider Lagardère’s option of floating its 20% stake. |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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