Launch of Free Mobile
The launch of the fourth mobile network operator in France has so far met with dramatic success, gaining around 1.5 million subscribers in the first month, driven by rock-bottom pricing and a clever mass media PR campaign
Its tariffs are, however, so low that it is very hard to see how they are sustainable in the longer term. In the short term, Free’s economics are boosted by asymmetric voice and text termination rates that result in other operators’ customers effectively subsidising Free subscribers by €5 to €10 a month |
Media, Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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More news under the Sun: launch confirmed
News International is to launch the Sun on Sunday on 26 February, seven months after closing the News of the World
In the intervening period, Trinity Mirror has picked up the bulk of the 55% of NoW copies that have not entirely fallen out of the market since June 2011
The £150 million revenue once generated by NoW is diminished and dispersed among rival publishers and we estimate that even a triumphant launch would likely generate half to two thirds of the income of the closed title |
Media, Press |
February 2012 Access this report
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Enders Analysis' Annual Conference
Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 19 January 2012. The event featured talks by 13 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. An edited transcript of notes taken during the speaker presentations follows. |
Media, Technology, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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Facebook - the IPO effect
Facebook’s IPO prospectus confirms that the social network is an internet colossus, with 845 million users worldwide and $3.7 billion in revenue in 2011
Growth potential in display advertising, which accounts for the majority of revenue, seems limited with increasing mobile substitution in major ad markets and future user expansion largely in lower yielding countries
There is significant potential to increase income from payments and other businesses beyond social games, but the company’s strategy is unknown at this point |
Media, Internet |
February 2012 Access this report
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Virgin Media Q4 2011 results and strategy update: speed bumps
VMed’s Q4 results were again mixed, with underlying cash flow growth hit by high capital expenditure primarily relating to accelerating TiVo box installations
But this strong take up of next generation TV, and real progress at the Mobile and Business divisions, give us confidence that the company’s strategy is working
Management guidance of further cash flow growth from the second half of 2012 is credible, though we continue to expect underlying growth to be limited |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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Platform wars, app stores and ecosystems
Around 125m smartphones and over 20m tablets were sold in Q4 2011. If tablets are included, Apple is now the largest PC manufacturer, while smartphones are now outselling PCs
These devices are the battleground for a war of ecosystems in which Apple’s iOS and Google’s Android platforms are dominant and others are hoping for third place at best. iOS and Android sold around 92m units in Q4 and now have an active base between them of around 515m devices
Samsung now accounts for at least half of Android sales and is in some senses more of a rival to Apple than Android itself |
Media, Technology, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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Feeling the economic chill: Sky interim 2012 results
Sky’s 16% year-on-year increase in interim profits reflects strong operating efficiencies and reduced marketing costs due to the slowdown of TV gross additions in a tough economic climate, while continuing low churn underlines its product strengths
Fibre broadband deployment and the January launch of streaming-only services by Lovefilm and Netflix signal increasingly competitive conditions, but Sky is well placed and the challenges should take several years to materialise |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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BT Q3 2011/12 results: reasonable progress, on balance
BT’s results for the December quarter saw continuing trends of gradual improvement at BT Retail and efficient deployment of next generation access at Openreach, plus strong control of unallocated property costs, enabling management to issue slightly improved group-level guidance for the current financial year to March
Cash flow growth at group level continued to be compromised by the cost of overseas expansion at Global Services and a continuing shift to LLU and IP-based services at BT Wholesale |
Media, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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TV NAR forecasts: 2012-2016
With the economy drifting sideways, we have set our centre case forecasts at 0-1% average annual growth in TV NAR and assigned a low probability to a repeat of the hyper-cyclical downturn of 2008/9
Comparative international data show a pervasive long term weakness in display advertising trends across the developed world, while emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe take an increasing share of global budgets |
Media, TV |
January 2012 Access this report
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Apple rewrites the textbook
Apple has begun selling interactive textbooks via its iBookstore, a move which is likely to accelerate the digital transition in education
However, the pace of change will be slowed by the cost of devices and the limited number of textbooks that have been designed for tablet computers
By developing educational software and course materials, Apple is trying to position the iPad at the centre of students’ educational lives – a niche that could significantly boost its hardware sales |
Media, Technology |
January 2012 Access this report
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More news under the Sun?
Rumours that News International will consider launching a newspaper to replace the News of the World have circulated for months, and probably only one event can dispel them
Trinity Mirror has picked up the bulk of the 60% of NoW copies that have not entirely fallen out of the market since June 2011, and arguably the longer any launch is delayed the harder it will be for NI to attract them back |
Media, Press |
January 2012 Access this report
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Recorded music: is the US bouncing back?
US album volumes in 2011 rose for the first time since 2004, but lower pricing may continue the revenue decline
UK album volumes declined 5.6% in 2011. HMV’s new-found breathing space removes a key risk for the outlook
US radio royalties to music publishers have been agreed in principle and will see a return to a revenue based payment |
Media, Music and Radio, Non-UK Media |
January 2012 Access this report
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Google UK results: mobile and display ascendant
Google’s UK revenue grew 23% to £676 million in Q4 2011, taking 2011 revenue to £2,525 million, up 20% year-on-year, 2 ppts below our November estimate
Globally, gross revenue rose 25% year-on-year, with mobile and display performing strongly, but rising costs pulled net revenue growth down to 8%
Our growth forecasts for Google’s UK revenue remain unchanged; we expect UK internet ad spend to rise from £4.7 billion last year to £5.8 billion by 2013, representing 35% of total advertising, as print continues to fall |
Media, Internet |
January 2012 Access this report
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Al Jazeera needs Canal+
Qatar’s Al Jazeera will launch its French pay-TV channel by this summer, showing weekly Ligue 1 and Champions League games, but it has yet to disclose a business plan and distribution deals
The new channel is a complement to Canal+, which broadcasts the most attractive games. Al Jazeera would need to obtain distribution on the Canal+ platform
Even if such a deal were to be struck, Al Jazeera would struggle to break even |
Media, TV |
January 2012 Access this report
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Two UK consumer recessions for the price of one
UK households cut their real spending in 2011, and we expect their spending to, at best, flat-line in 2012 and 2013
From an economic perspective, flat real advertising growth is our central case for 2012 and into 2013 for the UK
Poor sales prospects and low profit margins on heavy price discounting will dissuade advertisers from higher spend until tangible evidence of a consumer recovery emerges. |
Media |
January 2012 Access this report
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Netflix faces uphill battle in the UK
The launch of Netflix in the UK and Ireland has ignited the debate on the threat from over-the-top video to pay-TV services from Sky, Virgin Media and BT
Unlike in the US, Netflix’s UK prospects and those of competitors such as Lovefilm, are fundamentally limited, given the availability of low priced pay-TV with strong on-demand components included for free
The impact of Netflix on the UK pay-TV industry is therefore likely to be even smaller than the (hard to discern) effect it has had in the US |
Media, TV, Internet, Technology |
January 2012 Access this report
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Virgin Media's cable broadband speed upgrade: put that in your pipe
Virgin Media’s plan to double the line speed of most of its broadband customers is the latest in a series of moves to retain its position as the leading high speed internet service provider in the face of BT’s deployment of next generation access (NGA)
The move presages further price increases and an upgrade to offers for new cable customers, but is in the first instance about retaining the large existing base of cable customers currently on 10 Mbit/s |
Media, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
January 2012 Access this report
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Digital platform growth post analogue
As Phase 1 digital shift from broadcast analogue to digital nears completion, individual platform growth trends have almost flattened out
The most likely area of change in platform trends over the next ten years concerns basic only subscription pay-TV, where we anticipate an overall increase in the total pay-TV base and change in platform balance arising from the introduction of low price basic packages |
Media, TV |
December 2011 Access this report
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Google versus Facebook: display advertising
Facebook is winning the battle for eyeballs and advertising in the internet display arena, with revenues projected to reach $5.3 billion in 2012
By comparison, we expect Google to achieve revenue of $2.5 billion, after traffic acquisition costs, though it remains the king of internet advertising, due to its dominance of search
Increasing advertiser demand for scale and performance will make many publishers increasingly reliant on one or both of the internet giants for audience and revenue growth |
Media, Internet |
December 2011 Access this report
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Pre-Christmas tablet market update
Apple has now sold 40m iPads – we estimate 4 to 5m in the UK – and goes into the Christmas season with no credible competitors beyond Amazon’s Kindle Fire, which is so far only available in the USA
Android phones are selling in huge numbers at half the price or less of the iPhone, but would-be iPad competitors are the same price or higher. With the continued absence of a meaningful content ecosystem for Android tablets it is hard to see consumers buying them in substantial numbers |
Media, Technology, Telecoms |
December 2011 Access this report
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