More news under the Sun: launch confirmed
News International is to launch the Sun on Sunday on 26 February, seven months after closing the News of the World
In the intervening period, Trinity Mirror has picked up the bulk of the 55% of NoW copies that have not entirely fallen out of the market since June 2011
The £150 million revenue once generated by NoW is diminished and dispersed among rival publishers and we estimate that even a triumphant launch would likely generate half to two thirds of the income of the closed title |
Media, Press |
February 2012 Access this report
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More news under the Sun?
Rumours that News International will consider launching a newspaper to replace the News of the World have circulated for months, and probably only one event can dispel them
Trinity Mirror has picked up the bulk of the 60% of NoW copies that have not entirely fallen out of the market since June 2011, and arguably the longer any launch is delayed the harder it will be for NI to attract them back |
Media, Press |
January 2012 Access this report
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Zoopla’s merger with the Digital Property Group: implications for digital property media
Zoopla and The Digital Property Group, DMGT’s property portfolio which includes Findaproperty, Primelocation and Globrix, announced a merger on 14 October 2011. Under the terms of the proposed merger, DMGT would receive a 55% interest in the merged entity
A merged Zoopla and DPG will compete more effectively with market leader Rightmove, in a property market scaled down by one-third in terms of the number of transactions |
Media, Press, Internet |
November 2011 Access this report
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UK consumer magazines: (some) loss of gloss
This report on UK consumer magazines charts the ongoing pressures on the sector: circulation of paid titles in H1 2011 of 445m copies was down 5% year-on-year, and down more than 20% in relation to the 562m copies sold in H1 2006. When the closure of Sky's titles is factored in, the year-on-year decline of both free and paid copies is 15% |
Media, Press |
October 2011 Access this report
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UK consumer magazines: the digital dimension
This second report on UK consumer magazines considers the strategic positioning of leading publishers in terms of their print portfolio and the digital opportunities. We believe further consolidation print assets is inevitable during the next few years. Additionally, publishers are launching fewer, or at least generally smaller products, and a widespread shift to a subscription model remains a distant prospect for most publishers. |
Media, Press |
October 2011 Access this report
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National newspaper ABCs, September 2011
National newspaper circulation continued its inexorable decline in September, with daily circulation down 7% year-on-year, although we estimate retail sales value decline was marginal
Sunday popular and mid-market newspaper circulation fell 4% month-on-month, as News of the World buyers continue to drop out of the market; we estimate around a third of ex-readers have not migrated to another title |
Media, Press |
October 2011 Access this report
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Competitive pressures on the press: presentation to the Leveson Inquiry
In the context of his Inquiry, Lord Leveson invited Claire Enders, as “one of the UK’s foremost media business analysts”, to kick off the seminar series on the 6 October with a synoptic presentation on “Competitive pressures on the press”. The Inquiry is interested in understanding the market economics of the mainstream media, including the impact of technology
This presentation brings together our existing work on the newspaper and consumer magazines industry, with an emphasis on the former, highlighting the challenges to the print media of the internet |
Media, Press, Internet |
October 2011 Access this report
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Local TV: watch this space
Jeremy Hunt is pressing ahead with plans to inject television into the local media ecosystem, the latest in a series of attempts by successive governments to promote local news provision
This presents a challenge to local media, threatening to fragment consumption and intensify the competitive environment in perennially difficult times, but in certain areas these pressures will be attenuated
A ‘community’ model may allow local TV services to survive in areas where advertising revenues do not provide a sufficient income stream |
Media, TV, Press |
September 2011 Access this report
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UK advertising growth slows to a crawl
Whilst UK GDP growth crawls along at a snail’s pace in 2011, (real) private consumption, its principal component, has been in sequential decline since Q4 2010, dragging consumer facing industries down
UK media are not equally affected. The internet continues to grow through search as well as display, but we expect TV NAR to be flat in 2011
Press advertising is worst affected by the downturn due to its exposure to retail advertising on top of the structural shift of classifieds to the internet |
Media, TV, Press, Internet, Music and Radio |
September 2011 Access this report
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UK classified advertising 2011
UK classified advertising in print and digital media fell -9% in 2010 to £2.76 billion, and we expect a further decline of -7% in 2011. |
Media, Press, Internet |
August 2011 Access this report
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UK press and News International: what next?
Trinity Mirror, Northern & Shell and DMGT helped the market more or less offset the absence of the News of the World, though impressive volumes have come at a price
More generally, newspaper circulations have a temporary reprieve, as strong newsflow but also discounts and marketing techniques have been deployed to attract readers
What happens next at News International, and also competitor responses, could soon change market dynamics again |
Media, Press |
July 2011 Access this report
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The regulation of news
The uncovering of criminal behaviour at one newspaper (so far) has led to a much broader review of how the press is regulated, seeking to put a stop to dishonest and unethical behaviour, legal or illegal, and touching on ownership, ethics and on the freedom of the press in general
However, much of investigative journalism relies on activities that are certainly dishonest and arguably open to prosecution: any new code and enforcement will need to rely on judgement and selectivity, not prescription |
Media, Press |
July 2011 Access this report
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Apple, Android and tablet market share
Apple has now sold 25m iPads since launch, worth $15bn, and will probably sell 40-50m in 2011. Competing tablets have sold perhaps 2-3m in total so far and will not be competitive with the iPad until 2012 at the earliest
Android phones are now far outselling iPhones, but benefit from a narrower user experience gap and from selling at a half of the price. Android tablets must compete with the iPad at the same or higher price points, a far harder task. We believe it is possible the iPad will retain a 50%+ share |
Media, Mobile, Press, Technology, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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Mail and Mirror to gain share as World ends
The closure of the News of the World will see Sunday national press circulation decline by nearly 1.8 million copies per week, taking it to little more than half its level in 2000
All titles will gain market share of circulation as a result, and we anticipate additional market share gains for the Mail on Sunday and Sunday Mirror, to more than 30% and nearly 20%, respectively
In the context of the decision to withdraw the bid for BSkyB, News Corp will consider all its options, either expanding its presence through a Sun on Sunday, or retreating altogether from the UK newspaper market |
Media, Press |
July 2011 Access this report
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What does ‘fit and proper’ mean?
Ofcom is entitled to consider whether News Corp is ‘fit and proper’ to own BSkyB’s channels, not the company itself
Precedent suggests that Ofcom will only be able to conclude that News Corp is unfit if the acquiring company’s directors are found guilty of a serious criminal offence. Suspicions, allegations and mistrust are absolutely not enough
We believe that Ofcom will only be able to assess whether News Corp is ‘fit and proper’ to own Sky channels after the transaction is concluded |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Press, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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Yell still shouting as its market crashes
Revenues and profits continue to crash at the directory giant as local and small business expenditure shifts to cheaper online media
We believe Yell’s challenges may be less about share of voice, and more about how to absorb the pace of structural change – and to operate its business effectively from a much lower top-line
Tough conditions in all territories – UK, US, Spain and Latin America – have accelerated structural change, but Yell has some advantages over the start-ups, search algorithms and social networks that surround it |
Media, Press, Internet |
May 2011 Access this report
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Regional press left behind in media bounceback
Growth in advertising for TV and the largest popular newspapers has not spread to local media, with regional press suffering declines in recruitment, auto and retail in 2010 despite colossal falls the previous year
Operating profit recovery in 2010 demonstrates firm management cost control, although the largest businesses have suffered 20% decline in annual profits since 2006 |
Media, Press, Internet |
April 2011 Access this report
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The New York Times and pay models
The New York Times is shortly to switch its free desktop and app services into a part-free and part-paid metered system. We also expect the UK Times to switch from its subscription ‘Berlin wall’ to a similar system
In the UK, quality newspaper circulation is moving into freefall, as smartphone and tablet devices provide target consumers with 24/7 news coverage on the sofa and on the move |
Media, Press, Internet |
March 2011 Access this report
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Sky News
The concept of demerging Sky News is evidently a plausible one and we consider it very unlikely that critics of the deal will have much success undermining its appropriateness as a protection of plurality
However, it is harder to judge whether the proposed implementation secures the channel’s independence as fully and clearly as it might |
Media, TV, Press |
March 2011 Access this report
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Virtual goods and competition law
Publishers are committing no offence by using Amazon as their agent and insisting on a high price for their e-books. Owners are entitled to set their own price and remunerate retailers with a standard percentage commission
On the other hand, retailers such as Amazon that demand publishers do not sell their e-books through other channels at lower prices may well run into legal trouble |
Media, TV, Press, Music and Radio |
March 2011 Access this report
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