UK Fixed Telephony Market Trends
Over the four years to 2008, fixed telephony market revenue has fallen by about 17% (£1.9 billion). But the picture is complex
The total number of fixed access lines has fallen by only 4% since 2004, but losses have been predominantly of business lines, due to a combination of inter-related factors involving a shift from ISDN2 to broadband, fixed call substitution and increased home working |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
October 2009 Access this report
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UK broadband and telephony markets Q2 2009
This report looks at the UK broadband and telephony market up to Q2 2009. The key trend is that the steep reduction in UK broadband net additions continued in Q2 2009, to 176,100 |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
September 2009 Access this report
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Virgin Media Q2 2009 results: positive impact from price increases
VMed’s Q2 results were again mixed but, on balance, encouraging, with the impact of the May price increases feeding through into revenue growth
Cable volume performance was poor but, with the exception of broadband, no worse than expected, and is not expected to deteriorate further relative to the market
We remain optimistic that management will succeed in combining revenue growth with reductions in operating costs to generate sustained growth in cash flow from autumn 2009 |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2009 Access this report
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Sky fiscal FY2009 closes on the best quarter ever?
Fiscal FY 2009 closed on a very strong note, with record Sky+ HD additions contributing to Q4 net growth of 124,000, the highest Q4 increase since 2003, and opening up the opportunity for a large increase in TV operating margins after absorption of the initial subscriber acquisition costs |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2009 Access this report
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BT FY 2009-10 Q1 results: what goes down
BT’s Q1 results provided welcome respite from a string of bad news, and some evidence of management’s ability to cut costs, but were helped by a temporary sharp reduction in capex and a VAT repayment. It remains early days
The ‘21st century’ upgrade to the core network now appears to be largely complete and delivering cost savings, but a separate voice network will continue to run over the access infrastructure |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2009 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse June quarter trading update: on course
The distribution business experienced modest growth in connections and revenue, easily outpacing European market handset growth of -15%, as the company continues to build market share
At TalkTalk Group (TTG) net broadband additions for the quarter were relatively strong, given likely market growth, probably due at least in part to reduced subscriber loss at AOL UK
In our view cut-price business broadband, rather than IPTV, offers the best prospect of profitable revenue growth in fixed line |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
July 2009 Access this report
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UK Internet Trends
Driven by growing broadband connectivity, the internet continues to gain share of media consumption and advertising at the expense of traditional media, hit by the double whammy of substitution to online and deepening recession
In the near-term, the recession will be the dominant factor across many business sectors. The enclosed presentation highlights key online trends in the UK and our current forecasts for internet advertising in 2009 and 2010 |
Media, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
July 2009 Access this report
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UK broadband and telephony market Q1 2009
UK broadband market growth continues to slow, with net additions more than halving year-on-year to 284,300 and annualised market growth in single figures |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
June 2009 Access this report
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Digital Britain Final Report: implications for UK telecoms
The Digital Britain report’s proposed fixed line levy to fund rural NGA may well never become law, but if implemented, could end up being absorbed by the service providers, with a disproportionately negative impact on TalkTalk Group
The proposed Universal Service Commitment for broadband at 2 Mbit/s looks of limited attraction to potential bidders, but could increase the addressable market for retail broadband by about one million households |
Mobile, Fixed line, Telecoms |
June 2009 Access this report
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Ofcom statement on LLU pricing: gently does it
Ofcom’s recent statement on LLU pricing has increased the amount which BT Openreach can charge unbundlers for full LLU over the next two years by about 8% overall
We estimate the changes will raise BT group EBITDA by less than 1% over the two years to March 2011
TalkTalk Group’s recent retail price increase is more than enough to offset the impact of Ofcom’s ruling on its annual EBITDA to March 2010, but the ruling could still take 5% off annual EBITDA to March 2011 |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
June 2009 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse 2008/09 FY results
Carphone Warehouse’s distribution business had a slightly mixed year, with strong volumes and revenue mitigated by a sharp drop in margins and profit, with margin being sacrificed for market share
Given the very poor recession-hit market for handsets, Carphone Warehouse’s market share gains have been dramatic, so the sacrifice was at least not in vain
Although TalkTalk Group missed much of its guidance to March 2009, we now view new guidance as achievable, with the main risks related to the integration of Tiscali UK |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
June 2009 Access this report
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Cable & Wireless full year results to March 2009: strong cost control
The UK and international businesses (now ‘Worldwide’ and ‘CWI’) are both continuing to perform well, despite weak revenue growth, thanks to strong cost control. Worldwide is now generating cash organically for the first time in memory
Performance at the newly-acquired Thus has been slightly below expectations, mostly due to increased customer churn. The sale of the ‘mid-market’ part of the business is a possibility |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
May 2009 Access this report
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BT FY 2008-09 Q4 results: clearing the decks
BT’s Q4 results contained a bombshell £1.3 billion write-down at Global Services to correct previous under-reporting of costs on two contracts, believed to be with the NHS and Reuters. Underlying EBITDA at Global Services also dropped sharply for the second quarter running
Annual pension contributions are to increase sharply, as expected, albeit to a level sustainable by the business. Performance at other divisions continues to be reasonable, given the economic environment |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
May 2009 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse acquisition of Tiscali UK: The Italian Job
Carphone Warehouse’s acquisition of Tiscali UK makes TalkTalk Group the second largest UK ISP and the largest in terms of residential broadband subscribers, just as market growth begins to stall
The company’s synergy target looks readily achievable, although integration challenges are significant and could make the acquired customer base difficult to stabilise
Nonetheless, TalkTalk Group now seems set to dominate the ‘value’ end of the UK residential telecoms market |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
May 2009 Access this report
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Virgin Media Q1 2009 results: awaiting impact of price changes
VMed’s Q1 results were again mixed, with declining group revenue and OCF margin but improving performance at Virgin Mobile and continuing strength in TV
The core cable business is facing a return to negative customer growth due to a combination of seasonality and stalling demand for broadband |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
May 2009 Access this report
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Sky FY 2009 Q3 results: recession-resistant
Another strong quarter of pay-TV subscriber growth, marked by record Sky+ HD sales, indicated continued resistance to recessionary pressures, supported by flat costs other than those associated with accelerated HD take-up
Results for the telecoms business again displayed strong volume growth in an increasingly difficult market. But original guidance for broadband subscribers, breakeven and standalone IRR looks challenging |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
April 2009 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse March quarter trading update and analyst day
In fixed line, net broadband additions for the quarter were strong at TalkTalk given a tough market, but remained firmly negative at AOL UK
We are sceptical of new guidance for fixed line for the year to March 2010, but still expect reasonable performance, given the slowdown in broadband market growth
The distribution business continued to defy the consumer downturn in volume terms, with 12% connections growth and a solid outlook for next year, although the pain is being felt at the margin level |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
April 2009 Access this report
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Digital Britain summit: talk is cheap
Friday’s Digital Britain summit generated more heat than light but nonetheless provided a useful forum for the articulation of the views of government and some other key players
There appears to remain a significant gap between government aspirations for a high speed broadband Britain and the commercial realities. All eyes are now on Wednesday’s Budget to see the extent to which the government is prepared to put its money where its mouth is |
Media, Fixed line, Telecoms |
April 2009 Access this report
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NGA in Italy
This report concludes our series of country reports (France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden) on next generation access on the Continent
Although Italy boasts the largest FTTH network in Europe, it is the least propitious market for new NGA plans among those we have surveyed. Telecom Italia has no specific plans for NGA, precluded by its level of indebtedness, and neither does any of the altnets |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2009 Access this report
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Iliad’s 2008 results and prospects
Iliad, now France’s number two broadband provider, will increase total revenues by 10% per year by 2012, mainly by growing its subscriber base (rather than ARPU) in a market however rapidly reaching maturity
Excluding mobile, the EBITDA margin could rise by five percentage points to 40% in 2012, but a mobile launch in 2011 would pare the margin down to 32% |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2009 Access this report
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