Launch of Free Mobile
The launch of the fourth mobile network operator in France has so far met with dramatic success, gaining around 1.5 million subscribers in the first month, driven by rock-bottom pricing and a clever mass media PR campaign
Its tariffs are, however, so low that it is very hard to see how they are sustainable in the longer term. In the short term, Free’s economics are boosted by asymmetric voice and text termination rates that result in other operators’ customers effectively subsidising Free subscribers by €5 to €10 a month |
Media, Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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Cable & Wireless Worldwide: Turnaround or acquisition, easier said than done
Cable & Wireless Worldwide’s new CEO Gavin Darby has outlined a turnaround strategy for a business which is not performing that badly in context, against the backdrop of Vodafone considering a bid to buy the company
Mr Darby’s strategy is yet to be finalised, but in outline contains lots of initiatives which are good in theory but hard to implement in practice, especially in a weak macroeconomic climate, in the face of intense competition |
Mobile, Fixed line, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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Virgin Media Q4 2011 results and strategy update: speed bumps
VMed’s Q4 results were again mixed, with underlying cash flow growth hit by high capital expenditure primarily relating to accelerating TiVo box installations
But this strong take up of next generation TV, and real progress at the Mobile and Business divisions, give us confidence that the company’s strategy is working
Management guidance of further cash flow growth from the second half of 2012 is credible, though we continue to expect underlying growth to be limited |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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Vodafone Q3 2011/12 results: Economic slowdown
Vodafone Europe’s underlying revenue growth declined by 0.7 percentage points in the December quarter, with its Southern European operations continuing to struggle in poor economic environments
Few competitors have reported their results so far, so it is hard to conclude on Vodafone’s competitive performance as yet, but we expect that the slowdown will prove market-wide
The company has stuck to its full year profitability targets, suggesting that strong cost cutting is making up for top line weakness |
Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse December quarter results: Weak prepay hits revenue, but strong contract supports profits
Carphone Warehouse’s Q3 2011/12 volume and revenue was severely hit by a steep reduction in UK prepay volumes, with prepay subsidy cuts driving a drop in the UK market of as much as 40%
However, stronger volumes of higher margin contract handsets drove a small improvement in gross profit for the quarter
The unexpected prepay weakness means that Carphone Warehouse’s handset business will have roughly flat operating profit in its 2011/12 financial year at best, although given the negative external factors this would reflect a strong underlying performance |
Mobile, Telecoms |
January 2012 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q3 2011: The outlook bleakens
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request |
Mobile, Telecoms |
November 2011 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse H1 2011/12 results: Late handset launches hurt
Carphone Warehouse’s H1 2011/12 results were overshadowed somewhat by the announcements that it is shutting down its UK ‘big box’ consumer electronics venture and selling its share in the Best Buy US handset business
Its actual core business operating performance was grim, with drops of 12% in volume and 4.5% in like-for-like revenue in the September quarter, with the slashing of prepay subsidies in the UK hitting volumes, and the late arrival of the iPhone 4S hitting revenue |
Mobile, Telecoms |
November 2011 Access this report
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Vodafone H1 2011/12 results: Doing well in difficult circumstances
Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth improved marginally in the September quarter, a very solid performance under tricky circumstances, helped by good competitive performances and judicious pricing measures
The combined Europe and group common function EBITDA margin was again held flat, despite continued smartphone adoption pushing up handset costs, with strong cost control again evident |
Mobile, Telecoms |
November 2011 Access this report
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Nokia brings a new ball to the game
Nokia has launched its comeback with two very solid Windows Phone devices at €420 and €270. Next year Nokia, like Apple, will have handsets with uniquely appealing industrial design. However, Nokia will not launch in the USA until 2012 and needs to add cheaper smartphones to the portfolio
Nokia and Microsoft face a hard struggle in establishing a third mobile app ecosystem. However, it is not impossible (Google has managed it in 18 months) and given more devices and the right execution they could manage it |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
November 2011 Access this report
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Virgin Media Q3 2011 results: mixed not nixed
Q3 results were contradictory, with accelerating demand for enhanced services and resilient revenue, but high churn and weak growth in fundamental cash flow
Cost increases struck us as justifiable in the longer term and were in some cases temporary. We share management’s confidence that there is better news to come, particularly at Virgin Media Business
Nonetheless, we remain of the view that future cash flow growth is likely to be significantly lower than that seen over the past two years, particularly given the deteriorating economic outlook |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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Apple’s results, the iPhone and Android
Apple is now a $108bn company, with annual revenue up 66% from a year ago and 40% gross margins. September quarter iPhone sales dipped to 17m ahead of a new product launch, but Apple still sold 72m in the last 12m, compared to 40m in the 12m to September 2010
Apple has now sold 40m iPads for $20.3bn revenue, and 11m in the last quarter. All other competing devices have sold perhaps 4m. We expect Apple’s dominance to continue through 2012 and potentially beyond |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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Amazon makes its move into tablets
Amazon has taken the ereader to $79 and the tablet to $200. The Amazon Fire is everything that Android tablets are not: a coherent high-quality user experience rather than a box of components. It will sell well, while new sub-$100 Kindles will reinforce Amazon’s dominance of ebooks
Amazon began as a bookshop, but just 30% of Q2 North American sales were physical media of any kind. The Fire is part of a broader strategy – to embed Amazon in online buying of everything from shoes to nappies to iPads and TVs. The Kindle Fire is a shop window on every coffee table |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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Apple refreshes the iPhone
Apple will release the iPhone 4S later this month, with substantially upgraded internals but the same design. Despite disappointment at the lack of something with a ‘5’ on the box, this is a solid update that maintains Apple’s competitive positioning
The most significant omission was a lower-priced iPhone. Apple sells the 3GS and now the 4 at lower prices, but lacks a dedicated device to address the sub $300 (SIM-free) market where most future growth will come from. We think this is only a matter of time |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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The mobile platform wars
In this report we outline the current state and likely development of the war between mobile platforms. We discuss installed bases and activity levels, the key issues facing Apple and Android, including Android fragmentation and Google's acquisition of Motorola, and go on to look at the tablet market and the outlook for RIM, Nokia and Windows Phone. |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q2 2011: MTR cuts hit but stable underlying
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request |
Mobile, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
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H3G H1 2011 results: UK strengthens, Italy weakens
After strong underlying improvements in growth and profitability in 2010, in H1 2011 H3G Europe’s service revenue growth was steady at 3% and margins only slightly improved to (underlying) EBIT breakeven
In the UK, service revenue growth accelerated to 7% (from -1% in H2 2010), with EBIT maintained at about breakeven, as the UK company’s ongoing strong contract subscriber growth fed through
Italy suffered roughly the opposite fate, with service revenue growth falling to -8%, as its recent subscriber losses fed through, and EBIT remained firmly negative |
Mobile, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse Q1 2011/12 results: weak start to the year
CPW Europe had a weak first quarter, with like-for-like revenue growth of -3.3%, with all of the drop coming from the 18 to 24 month contract length shift in the UK
We expect its performance to improve through the rest of its fiscal year, but it will need to in order to hit even the bottom end of its full year guidance
The US mobile retailing operation is doing much better, with very strong revenue growth, and is likely again to exceed full year guidance |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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Virgin Media Q2 2011 results: resilient but with limits
VMed’s Q2 results were respectable, but quirky, with resilient underlying revenue and strong cash flow, but exceptionally weak cable volumes
Virgin Mobile is performing better than ever, but steam continues to seep from the cable cash flow boiler
A TiVo push and further progress at Virgin Media Business are still to come, but we expect a trend of gradual decline in fundamental cash flow growth |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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Vodafone June quarter 2011 results: Spain continues to drag
Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth dropped by 0.5ppts to -1.3% in the June quarter, although most of this was due to a sharp MTR cut in the UK
Revenue in Spain was very weak due to a price re-adjustment, but trends elsewhere were broadly positive, with voice minutes growth improving overall
Medium term prospects are good, with MTR cuts fading, competitive performance improving and data growth likely to re-accelerate, but we expect declining growth in Turkey to drive a worse performance in the short term |
Mobile, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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Apple, Android and tablet market share
Apple has now sold 25m iPads since launch, worth $15bn, and will probably sell 40-50m in 2011. Competing tablets have sold perhaps 2-3m in total so far and will not be competitive with the iPad until 2012 at the earliest
Android phones are now far outselling iPhones, but benefit from a narrower user experience gap and from selling at a half of the price. Android tablets must compete with the iPad at the same or higher price points, a far harder task. We believe it is possible the iPad will retain a 50%+ share |
Media, Mobile, Press, Technology, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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