European mobile revenue growth and outlook Q1 2013: Hitting a nadir (of sorts)
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on reques |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
June 2013 Access this report
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UK mobile market Q1 2013: 4G progresses but does not transform
Overall UK mobile revenue growth slipped slightly in Q1, dropping 0.4ppts to -4.3%, although, taking into account the leap year effect, underlying growth likely improved a touch, marking the second quarter of growth being at least stable
EE announced 4G subscriber figures for the first time, reporting 318k subscribers at the end of the quarter, a very respectable figure given coverage, handset and price tier limitations. We expect this figure to grow strongly as coverage rolls out and 4G handset availability spreads, but the 4G revenue premium is still unlikely to be significant in 2013 |
Mobile, Telecoms |
June 2013 Access this report
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Numericable back into growth
In the past two quarters the French cable operator has seen its retail segment resuming growth after years of decline.
The improvement strengthens Numericable’s attractiveness as a consolidation partner. |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
May 2013 Access this report
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Facebook and mobile social networking in the UK
As smartphones have grown in the UK, so has mobile use of social networks However, mobile messaging services that offer an alternative channel to Facebook have become almost as important Meanwhile analysis by smartphone platform shows that iPhone users continue to have a higher propensity to install and use apps than do Android users. Android skews young and lower income, and messaging apps in particular start as a means to save money (though they are now much more than that), but even in this category iPhone users appear to care more |
Media, Mobile, Internet, Technology, Telecoms |
May 2013 Access this report
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Vodafone Q4 2012/13 results: Growth drops, 4G going slow
Vodafone’s European revenue slowed again, with declining underlying growth compounded by increased MTR cuts, and Vodafone Red tariffs seemingly driving both reduced customer acquisition and ARPU
Vodafone is investing in 4G on a leisurely timetable, planning to upgrade only 40% of sites to 4G by March 2015, and is seemingly more concerned about securing fixed fibre access than driving mobile |
Mobile, Telecoms |
May 2013 Access this report
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Apple, price and market share
Apple’s numbers have got so good they’re bad: after growing at over 50% for two years, relative revenue growth has, inevitably, slowed. The products remain very strong, and direct competitors continue to have little impact. (Apple’s mobile phone market share has never been higher, for example.) However, the premium phone market itself, which the iPhone dominates, is at a potential tipping point. |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
April 2013 Access this report
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Virgin Media Q1 2013 results: Early price increase boosts revenue
Virgin Media’s consumer business had a very strong quarter in revenue growth terms, but a weaker one in subscriber terms, both driven by the annual price increase occurring during the quarter
On the wholesale side, the company signed up both Sky and two mobile operators for backhaul services, likely at BT Wholesale’s expense
Net net Virgin Media is well on course, with the completion of the acquisition by Liberty Global expected by the end of Q2 unlikely to derail this |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
April 2013 Access this report
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Iliad in transition
Thanks to bargain prices, France’s Iliad managed to grab 5.2 million mobile subscribers in its first year and to increase its fixed broadband market share, while achieving close to cash flow breakeven at the Group level
In 2013 Free Mobile’s termination charges will fall back to parity with those of its competitors, dramatically shrinking its gross margin, and likely pushing mobile EBITDA firmly negative again |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2013 Access this report
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EE Q1 2013 results: 4G progress
EE reported 4G subscriber numbers for the first time at the end of March; we estimate the 318k implies that over half of addressable joiners/upgraders are choosing to pay extra for 4G
The rest of EE’s results were more prosaic, with steady net adds and mobile service revenue growth declining slightly due to leap year and price increase timing effects
Vodafone and O2 are planning to launch 4G services in the summer, which may boost the market for all |
Mobile, Fixed line, Telecoms |
April 2013 Access this report
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European mobile revenue growth and outlook Q4 2012: The rate of decline stabilises
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2013 Access this report
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UK mobile market Q4 2012: 4G launches - little impact so far, more to come
UK mobile revenue growth was steady in Q4 at -3.9%, only a fractional drop from -3.8% in the previous quarter, with underlying growth unchanged, and contract subscriber growth and ARPU trends also unwavering, though the market solidity masked more dramatic developments in service offerings with the launch of the new EE umbrella brand and its 4G service |
Mobile, Telecoms |
April 2013 Access this report
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Facebook Home and mobile
Facebook has announced Home, an Android app that takes control of your phone, replaces the home screen with your Facebook newsfeed and relegates any competing social services to, it hopes, an afterthought.
At launch, Home will be available to at most 20% of Facebook’s mobile base. It is an interesting tool to lock in core users and drive up their engagement, but can only be part of Facebook’s mobile strategy. |
Media, Mobile, Internet, Technology, Telecoms |
April 2013 Access this report
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Vodafone, KDG and quad play in Europe
German unbundlers are in decline, unable to match cable for price or bandwidth, or to invest in new fibre networks. Vodafone, the second largest unbundler, must choose between consolidating and divesting Merging with Kabel Deutschland would deliver fixed line synergies – with high execution risks. |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
March 2013 Access this report
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Samsung maintains the pace with the S4
Last week Samsung updated its flagship Galaxy S smartphone with a solid incremental upgrade that will cement its dominance of the high-end of Android, helped by a $14.7bn marketing budget and wide distribution
Impact will be strongest on other Android OEMs: the preceding S3 was heavily outsold by the iPhone and the new model is unlikely to change this, with similar design and positioning |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Technology, Telecoms |
March 2013 Access this report
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View from Mobile World Congress
Major European mobile operators were downbeat, with mobile revenue growth in Europe still massively underperforming the US, and their (misplaced in our view) anger at the OTT players being channelled into promoting new mobile OSs to compete with both Apple and Android
Samsung is cementing its dominance, while the other branded players focus on flagship models to try to cut through the noise. Meanwhile the flood of Android from Chinese OEM/ODMs is growing, at increasingly good quality. All other mobile platforms appear increasingly marginal |
Mobile, Telecoms |
March 2013 Access this report
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UK 4G spectrum auction: Mostly rational
The UK 4G spectrum auction raised a total of £2.3bn, broadly in line with similar auctions, although the highest quality spectrum raised less and the lowest quality spectrum raised more than might have been expected
The main short term consequences are as was expected beforehand; Vodafone and O2 will launch 4G services around May/June 2013 and H3G will launch in October 2013
Longer term, O2 and H3G may suffer from their lack of 2.6GHz spectrum, although with other bands likely to come free within the next ten years this may not affect them |
Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2013 Access this report
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EE Q4 2012 results: Promising start for 'EE'
EE’s Q4 results exhibited a resilient performance for a market leader, with net adds and revenue growth slightly declining, but likely in line with a weak market
The 4G launch and partial rebrand were implemented in October 2012, and resulted in little customer leakage (a substantial short term risk), but also little evidence yet of ARPU enhancement (a longer term upside)
With the rebrand successfully completed, a headstart in 4G established, and significant scope for merger synergy savings to come, the outlook is positive |
Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2013 Access this report
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Vodafone Q3 2012/13 results: Growth slows again, new tariffs not helping
Vodafone’s European revenue growth slowed again in the December quarter, to -4.8% on a reported basis from -3.8% in the previous quarter, with growth excluding the MTR impact also dropping While macroeconomic conditions and the decline in the mobile broadband dongle market are not helping, there also appears to be some competitive weakness, with churn increasing markedly in the quarter The new Vodafone Red tariffs are sound from a strategic perspective, but in the short term they do not appear to be helping subscriber numbers or ARPU |
Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2013 Access this report
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Slides accompanying Media & Telecoms: 2013 & Beyond (part 2)
Slides from the presentations by the following speakers at the Media & Telecoms: 2013 & Beyond conference on 15 January 2013: •Anthony Wood, CEO, Roku •Anne Bouverot, Director General, GSMA •Thomas Hesse, Chief Digital Officer, Bertelsmann |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Press, Internet, Telecoms |
February 2013 Access this report
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Media & Telecoms - 2013 & Beyond, part 2
Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 15 January 2013. The event featured talks by 14 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Press, Internet, Technology, Telecoms |
February 2013 Access this report
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