UK Mobile User Survey
Handset sales in the UK and the rest of Europe have reportedly been strong over the last few months, with camera phones selling well. In this report we look at our most recent survey of UK mobile handset owners to investigate whether this is a result of stronger consumer demand, or whether purchasers have been responding to cheaper offers from mobile operators.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
January 2004 Access this report
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Mobile Number Portability
On 24th November, the FCC hopes finally to force through mobile number portability to the US market. In this report we look at the impact that MNP has had in European markets, drawing conclusions for the potential impact in the US and Japan, and the future of MNP in Europe.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
November 2003 Access this report
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Consumer Reactions to 3G
The service from '3' in the UK is one of the few examples of a 3G network in action in Europe. In this report we look at the evidence of customer experiences at 3 to determine the potential popularity of the services to a wider audience. Our sources include two studies performed by GSM operators and an NOP survey.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
October 2003 Access this report
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Global Mobile Trends
In this report we compare the mobile markets and operator business models in Western Europe, the US and Japan. We examine the main differences, and judge whether convergence is possible or likely.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
August 2003 Access this report
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Handset Survey
This note reports on the results of our latest bi-monthly survey in May 2003 of handset owners and purchase intentions for the near future. Highlights include the rising share of Nokia to 57% of the UK handset market, consistent with past survey results indicating that Nokia remains the favoured brand by a wide margin, both for new entrants and for existing users upgrading to a newer model.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
June 2003 Access this report
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'3' and 3G
With the handsets finally available and (to some extent) working, Hutchison 3G's '3' operation has finally launched in the UK. In this report we review the commercial prospects for '3' in particular and 3G in general.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
April 2003 Access this report
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Camera Phones & MMS in 2003
In this report we look at the sales and usage of camera phones in Europe, and estimate future sales based in part on the results of our regular survey of UK mobile users. As a consequence of these findings, we have downgraded our forecast of UK MMS revenues.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
March 2003 Access this report
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UK Handset Survey
We have recently completed our December survey of UK mobile users, which shows increased purchase intentions for handsets in general and camera phones in particular. We summarise the results in this note, which are good news for handset manufacturers, but more mixed for the operators.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
December 2002 Access this report
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Mobile and Internet Substitution
Weak revenue growth has been a feature of both European and US fixed line incumbent operators over the last six months, with the root of the problem lying in poor growth, or even decline, in the volume of voice calls. This report looks at the reasons.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
November 2002 Access this report
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Mobile Device Update
In this short note we look at three data product offerings recently launched by the operators: Vodafone Live!, the Orange SPV and Vodafone Mobile Office laptop card service. Vodafone Live! follows a sensible strategy of having the operator define the user interface to help drive revenues, and is launched with two new light and compact handset models. However, the service has many glitches, with only the camera function working as well as it should, and very few of its target market will be likely to be able to afford the handsets. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
November 2002 Access this report
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Nokia 3G Handset Launch
Last week Nokia launched its first 3G handset, the 6650. Or did it? Although the size, weight and price initially looked impressive, the handset has not really been launched (not until H1 2003), and technically it is not really 3G (the data rates are too slow). By the time the handset is actually widely available to consumers, GSM-only handsets will have a much better feature/price combination, with a 3G handset only appealing to laptop users who would probably prefer a data card anyway. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
October 2002 Access this report
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Mobile Handset Replacement
This note reports on our third bi-monthly survey of handset replacement intentions in the UK. Purchase intentions have weakened slightly in the last four months, suggesting a further lengthening in the average replacement cycle. Interest in replacing phones to acquire new handset features remains low. Awareness of camera phones is extremely high, but the most recent survey shows a decline in the level of interest in purchasing, probably as the prices of these devices has become more widely known. Nokia remains the overwhelmingly dominant choice for consumers’ next brand of phone. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
September 2002 Access this report
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European Mobile Operators - Mobile Valuation
In this report, we look at the components of a theoretical DCF valuation of European mobile operators, focusing on Vodafone as the most salient example, and compare our views with those of the ‘analyst consensus’. Perhaps unsurprisingly, we are more conservative on revenue and margin forecasts than most forecasters, but an area in which we are uncharacteristically optimistic is cost of capital; the one benefit of the mobile industry’s transformation to low but stable growth is that WACCs should fall through both reduced betas and the ability to take on more debt. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
September 2002 Access this report
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Camera Phones
Camera phones represent the best hope of the mobile operators. Proven demand in Japan gives European operators reason for optimism that cameras will increase ARPU. Handset manufacturers believe it will ignite replacement demand.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
August 2002 Access this report
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European Mobile Operators - Capital Expenditure Trends
Analysts are predicting substantial declines in mobile industry capital expenditure when expressed as a percentage of turnover. These improvements are supposed to be driven by (a) declining growth in call minutes; (b) decreasing prices of capital equipment; and (c) better 'capital efficiency' in the 3G era. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
July 2002 Access this report
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Mobile Termination Charges
This note looks at the likely extent of regulatory pressures on reducing termination charges for off-net calls to the 2G networks of mobile network operators (MNOs) in the UK, Italy and Germany. These charges are well above cost – mainly because each MNO acts as a monopolist for termination of calls on its network - and are therefore important contributors to revenues as well as profits of MNOs. In the UK, off-net interconnection charges contribute one-quarter of revenues of the four MNOs.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
June 2002 Access this report
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Handset Sales and the Replacement Cycle
In developed markets, the crucial determinant of the level of mobile handset sales is the speed of replacement, not the volume of new subscribers. But data on when customers expect to replace their existing phone, and what will prompt them to make the change, is extremely hard to find. In order to rectify this deficiency, we commissioned a telephone survey of customers in the UK. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
June 2002 Access this report
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European Mobile Operators - Revenue Growth
In this note we look at the recent revenue growth performance of European mobile operators. We show that the current pessimism about future performance looks broadly justified. We comment on the increasing evidence, at least in the UK, that mobile penetration has stalled and that minutes of use are growing only slowly. We admit that our previous view that mobile usage would drift upwards even with stable call charges looks difficult to justify at the moment. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
May 2002 Access this report
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European Mobile Operators - Mobile Data
The mobile operators in the UK and elsewhere probably make a higher margin on SMS than on any other product. We think that about 30% of a UK operator's gross margin in derived from SMS and the percentage is rising. This report asks the question 'why should mobile operators launch any other mobile data products aimed at consumers?'. SMS now generates about £800 per megabyte of traffic. GPRS prices fall to about £1 per megabyte to heavy users. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2002 Access this report
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Mobile Operators - The Pricing of Calls to Mobiles
The charges imposed by the mobile operators for handling incoming calls are a very important part of their revenue stream. The UK telecoms regulator is attempting to force the networks to reduce their prices significantly. The row has just been referred to the UK competition authorities. We look at the arguments used by Oftel to justify its harsh stance. We conclude that the evidence supports the regulator's view that incoming call charges are held artificially high. As a result, analysts should expect that the UK networks will fail to see the charge cap reversed. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
January 2002 Access this report
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