The ebooks explosion
Market data and industry anecdote point to an explosion in ebook sales in the US and UK in 2011. Leading consumer publishers are seeing ebook sales at 10-15% of total sales in January and February, driven by Christmas device sales
So far ebooks had been strongest in niches: romance, business books and frequent travellers. They have now moved into the mass market: few genres will be untouched |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
April 2011 Access this report
|
Virgin Media Q1 2011 results: still respectable, but growth dropping
VMed’s Q1 results were respectable, helped by strong revenue growth at Virgin Media Business
However, growth in volume, ARPU and OCF, while still positive, is trending downwards, and we retain our expectation of more limited progress in 2011 compared to 2010
VMed’s strategy is coherent; the issue is the pace at which initiatives such as high speed broadband, service convergence and footprint expansion can be converted into cash flow growth |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
April 2011 Access this report
|
Carphone Warehouse Q4 2010/11 results: weathering storms
CPW Europe had a difficult quarter, with volumes falling 9% and like-for-like revenue 2%, due to continued prepay weakness and the shift to 24 month contracts in the UK
The US business was again very strong, growing volumes at 26%, and this strength is likely to continue due to an acceleration in store roll outs
Keeping the European business flat in 2011/12 will be a challenge, but the US business is likely to more than make up for this at the group level |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
May 2011 Access this report
|
Apple: everything going right?
In the March 2011 quarter Apple’s revenue was up 83% year-on-year and net income up 95%. iPhone sales are up 113% and the iPad has sold 19.5m units in the last 12 months. Even the ‘legacy’ Mac business grew 32%, and Apple now has over $65bn cash in the bank. Not bad for a niche business
With single digit penetration in its core growth businesses, Apple has the opportunity to continue growing fast for some time to come |
Media, Mobile, Telecoms |
May 2011 Access this report
|
Vodafone FY 2010/11 results: performing well in a weak market, smartphones helping
Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth dipped by 1ppt in the March 2011 quarter, but nearly all of this was due to regulated MTR cuts, with its competitive performance actually improving again
The combined Europe and common cost EBITDA margin was actually held flat in H2 10/11 on H2 09/10, aided by some heroic (and, frankly, uncharacteristic) cost cutting efforts, with Vodafone’s cost profligacy days apparently behind it |
Mobile, Telecoms |
May 2011 Access this report
|
Ebooks and accelerated change in bookselling
Amazon now sells more ebooks than print books on Amazon.com, while overall US ebook sales were 15.6% of the consumer market in March, up 142% from last year. Meanwhile, for some publishers over half of book sales are now through companies that are not book sellers
Waterstone’s has been bought by a Russian investor for £53m, with James Daunt parachuted in to take it back to its roots in bookselling, while in the USA John Malone has bid for Barnes & Noble valuing it at $1.45bn |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
May 2011 Access this report
|
Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q1 2011
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
May 2011 Access this report
|
Mobile user survey 2011: More smartphones, more usage of smartphones
The most dramatic observation from our survey is the surge in mobile data service usage: 48% of UK mobile users now use a data service at least once a month, up from just 30% last year. This increase is substantially all from the increased number of internet-centric smartphones (i.e. iPhone, BlackBerry and Android handsets) in the base |
Mobile, Telecoms |
June 2011 Access this report
|
Apple, Android and tablet market share
Apple has now sold 25m iPads since launch, worth $15bn, and will probably sell 40-50m in 2011. Competing tablets have sold perhaps 2-3m in total so far and will not be competitive with the iPad until 2012 at the earliest
Android phones are now far outselling iPhones, but benefit from a narrower user experience gap and from selling at a half of the price. Android tablets must compete with the iPad at the same or higher price points, a far harder task. We believe it is possible the iPad will retain a 50%+ share |
Media, Mobile, Press, Technology, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
|
Vodafone June quarter 2011 results: Spain continues to drag
Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth dropped by 0.5ppts to -1.3% in the June quarter, although most of this was due to a sharp MTR cut in the UK
Revenue in Spain was very weak due to a price re-adjustment, but trends elsewhere were broadly positive, with voice minutes growth improving overall
Medium term prospects are good, with MTR cuts fading, competitive performance improving and data growth likely to re-accelerate, but we expect declining growth in Turkey to drive a worse performance in the short term |
Mobile, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
|
Carphone Warehouse Q1 2011/12 results: weak start to the year
CPW Europe had a weak first quarter, with like-for-like revenue growth of -3.3%, with all of the drop coming from the 18 to 24 month contract length shift in the UK
We expect its performance to improve through the rest of its fiscal year, but it will need to in order to hit even the bottom end of its full year guidance
The US mobile retailing operation is doing much better, with very strong revenue growth, and is likely again to exceed full year guidance |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
|
Virgin Media Q2 2011 results: resilient but with limits
VMed’s Q2 results were respectable, but quirky, with resilient underlying revenue and strong cash flow, but exceptionally weak cable volumes
Virgin Mobile is performing better than ever, but steam continues to seep from the cable cash flow boiler
A TiVo push and further progress at Virgin Media Business are still to come, but we expect a trend of gradual decline in fundamental cash flow growth |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
|
H3G H1 2011 results: UK strengthens, Italy weakens
After strong underlying improvements in growth and profitability in 2010, in H1 2011 H3G Europe’s service revenue growth was steady at 3% and margins only slightly improved to (underlying) EBIT breakeven
In the UK, service revenue growth accelerated to 7% (from -1% in H2 2010), with EBIT maintained at about breakeven, as the UK company’s ongoing strong contract subscriber growth fed through
Italy suffered roughly the opposite fate, with service revenue growth falling to -8%, as its recent subscriber losses fed through, and EBIT remained firmly negative |
Mobile, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
|
Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q2 2011: MTR cuts hit but stable underlying
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request |
Mobile, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
|
The mobile platform wars
In this report we outline the current state and likely development of the war between mobile platforms. We discuss installed bases and activity levels, the key issues facing Apple and Android, including Android fragmentation and Google's acquisition of Motorola, and go on to look at the tablet market and the outlook for RIM, Nokia and Windows Phone. |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
|
Apple refreshes the iPhone
Apple will release the iPhone 4S later this month, with substantially upgraded internals but the same design. Despite disappointment at the lack of something with a ‘5’ on the box, this is a solid update that maintains Apple’s competitive positioning
The most significant omission was a lower-priced iPhone. Apple sells the 3GS and now the 4 at lower prices, but lacks a dedicated device to address the sub $300 (SIM-free) market where most future growth will come from. We think this is only a matter of time |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
|
Amazon makes its move into tablets
Amazon has taken the ereader to $79 and the tablet to $200. The Amazon Fire is everything that Android tablets are not: a coherent high-quality user experience rather than a box of components. It will sell well, while new sub-$100 Kindles will reinforce Amazon’s dominance of ebooks
Amazon began as a bookshop, but just 30% of Q2 North American sales were physical media of any kind. The Fire is part of a broader strategy – to embed Amazon in online buying of everything from shoes to nappies to iPads and TVs. The Kindle Fire is a shop window on every coffee table |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
|
Apple’s results, the iPhone and Android
Apple is now a $108bn company, with annual revenue up 66% from a year ago and 40% gross margins. September quarter iPhone sales dipped to 17m ahead of a new product launch, but Apple still sold 72m in the last 12m, compared to 40m in the 12m to September 2010
Apple has now sold 40m iPads for $20.3bn revenue, and 11m in the last quarter. All other competing devices have sold perhaps 4m. We expect Apple’s dominance to continue through 2012 and potentially beyond |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
|
Virgin Media Q3 2011 results: mixed not nixed
Q3 results were contradictory, with accelerating demand for enhanced services and resilient revenue, but high churn and weak growth in fundamental cash flow
Cost increases struck us as justifiable in the longer term and were in some cases temporary. We share management’s confidence that there is better news to come, particularly at Virgin Media Business
Nonetheless, we remain of the view that future cash flow growth is likely to be significantly lower than that seen over the past two years, particularly given the deteriorating economic outlook |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
|
Nokia brings a new ball to the game
Nokia has launched its comeback with two very solid Windows Phone devices at €420 and €270. Next year Nokia, like Apple, will have handsets with uniquely appealing industrial design. However, Nokia will not launch in the USA until 2012 and needs to add cheaper smartphones to the portfolio
Nokia and Microsoft face a hard struggle in establishing a third mobile app ecosystem. However, it is not impossible (Google has managed it in 18 months) and given more devices and the right execution they could manage it |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
November 2011 Access this report
|
