Numericable: beyond deleveraging
France’s sole cable operator, the smallest of the country’s five broadband providers, is sub-scale on the retail market and the heavy cost of servicing its debt leaves only meagre resources to leverage its superior network commercially
However, thanks to its white label deal with Bouygues, Numericable has resumed revenue growth and should achieve its 2014 debt/EBITDA target
As France Télécom’s network upgrade to fibre progresses, the main upside for Numericable lies in a closer alliance with Bouygues and possibly other DSL providers |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
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French fixed line retail upheaval
French ISPs are about to enter a disruptive four month window of penalty-free broadband subscriber churn, triggered by the VAT rise on IPTV
SFR has followed Iliad’s Free by offering unmetered fixed-to-mobile calls at the risk of ARPU decline
We expect Free’s market share to stabilise, whilst those of SFR and Bouygues should rise to the detriment of Orange |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
January 2011 Access this report
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Iliad’s Freebox V6
France’s Iliad will rekindle broadband subscriber recruitment with its Freebox V6 (router and TV set-top box), and extension of the triple play to include unmetered fixed-to-mobile calls
Freebox V6 is positioned as an innovative premium quasi-PC device including a 250GB PVR, a Blu-ray player, a game console and a web browser, re-establishing Iliad’s technology leadership
Iliad expects that V6 subscribers will be less profitable in the short term than in the medium term, but cumulative free cash flow guidance for the ADSL business remains unchanged for 2010-12 |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
December 2010 Access this report
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France: Update on free-to-air and pay-TV
The digital transition is almost complete in France, five years after the launch of DTT. After undergoing an audience share decline, TF1's share is stabilising. In contrast, M6 improved its audience share during the transition. Both groups are likely to remain dominant in the FTA TV market, thanks to the partial withdrawal of public TV from advertising sales
The advertising recovery in 2010 was strong. Thanks to its diversification, M6 is less exposed to the cycle than TF1, which is rebounding more strongly. M6 is also structurally more profitable |
Media, TV, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
December 2010 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q3 2010: smartphones surge, revenue doesn't
European mobile revenue growth improved by 0.8ppts in Q3 to reach -0.3%, but all of this improvement and more was due to easing regulatory pressures, with underlying growth actually declining marginally
GDP growth continues to improve year-on-year, but in the current low confidence environment underlying mobile revenue growth is not (yet) responding. Smartphone sales are surging, but their net impact on revenue is hard to discern |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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Germany: Update on pay and free-to-air TV
Unlike other European TV markets, the digital transition started in Germany 15 years ago and is having little impact on advertising or audience share trends of leading FTA broadcasters, RTL Group and ProSiebenSat.1
RTL Group and ProSiebenSat.1 each have both German and international FTA TV operations, but German FTA TV is more profitable. RTL and ProSieben operate a de facto duopoly in advertising, with broadly stable market shares |
Media, TV, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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Vivendi scenarios for 2011
Vivendi is close to being in a cash position to buy out minority shareholdings in SFR and Canal+, shedding the image of a ‘conglomerate’ of partly owned and diverse assets, which has weighed on valuation Acquiring Vodafone’s 44% stake in SFR (now only a question of price) would allow Vivendi to rebrand itself as a telecoms story, serving France, with Maroc Télécom and mainly Brazil’s GVT supplying the upside To fully acquire Canal+, Vivendi’s offer will need to consider Lagardère’s option of floating its 20% stake. |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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French telecoms retail highlights
Late entrant Bouygues Telecom is gaining broadband market share via the quad play. Orange and SFR have now also launched quad plays, but Iliad’s mobile offers will be ready only in 2012
Iliad hopes to use its new Freebox to energise recruitment around new IPTV services in Q4 2010. SFR will also launch a new box
Led by a likely VAT hike for triple play bundled IPTV services in 2011, triple play pricing is set to rise after many years, from €30 to €35/month. FTTH upgrades in urban areas will be gaining visibility this winter |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
September 2010 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse June quarter results: steady in Europe, strong in US
CPW saw growing revenue but falling volume in its core European handset retail business, as contract handset growth outperformed prepay
We believe that this is in line with a slightly subdued market, with consumer confidence quite weak across a number of European countries
CPW’s US business did much better, growing at 30%, and it is this strength that leaves us confident in the group’s ability to have a strong full year |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
July 2010 Access this report
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Vodafone June quarter 2010 results: confidence issues
Vodafone Europe’s revenue growth again notched up, increasing by 0.7ppts as reported or 0.3ppts in underlying terms, with minutes volume growth accelerating by 1.8ppts
This is a little disappointing in the context of the rate of reported GDP recovery, but consumer confidence, particularly in Southern Europe, has re-dipped in the last few months, making raw GDP figures less relevant than they once were |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
July 2010 Access this report
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European mobile market analysis to March 2010
Overall reported revenue growth in the top 5 European markets increased by 1.6ppts, to growth of -1.7%. With little change in regulation during the quarter, underlying growth also saw a sharp uplift, rising 1.7ppts and building on the 0.4ppts increase seen in the last quarter. The European mobile market is now firmly in recovery following a very difficult 2009 |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
June 2010 Access this report
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France Télécom in a Red Queen race
FT’s domestic fixed line revenue decline accelerated in Q1 2010 as Orange’s broadband subscriber growth continued to disappoint, despite price cuts
FT’s higher service level has sustained premium pricing to date, but competitor altnets are also improving service – FT must run to stay still in a fast moving competitive marketplace
New promotions and/or price cuts for the triple play are required to stabilise Orange’s broadband market share, at the cost of further fixed line revenue decrease
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Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
May 2010 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse Group March 2010 quarter trading update: riding recovery?
CPW grew its core European mobile handset distribution business in underlying like-for-like revenue terms by 3% in the March quarter, and its profits grew by 18% in the 2009/10 year, although connection volumes and actual revenue fell during the quarter
Growth is improving with the recovery, but not dramatically, as its strong competitive performance during the recession is unwinding to some extent. Nonetheless, 2010/11 should see continued improvement, with handset trends still generally going in CPW’s direction |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2010 Access this report
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Iliad withstands new competitive pressures
France’s altnet Iliad again delivered stronger than expected profit and cash flow growth in 2009 on the back of continued strong results at the Free brand and a positive contribution from the Alice brand
These results demonstrate the continued pull of Free for the triple play customer despite intensifying competition, including from cable, making the low cost, low churn business model sustainable
By 2012, we expect fixed line profitability to increase and deliver enough cash flow to finance the launch of the Free Mobile project |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2010 Access this report
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Kabel Deutschland IPO
Kabel Deutschland, being floated on 22 March, has a credible track record of profitable growth and some upside potential to lure investors
Rising broadband and telephony take-up should more than offset basic cable TV erosion, delivering a CAGR of 7% in revenues, and a threefold rise in cash flow to €578 million by FY2015, according to our model
Downside risks include Kabel Deutschland’s high debt and the intense competition for the triple play customer being waged by Deutsche Telekom |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
March 2010 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q4 2009: a corner is turned
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
March 2010 Access this report
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French fixed line 2009 corporate results
Despite the recession, in 2009 the French broadband market added 1.8 million connections to reach 19.6 million, but we expect the deceleration in growth to persist in 2010
Orange’s leading position weakened further in Q4 2009, despite retail price cuts, and we expect a further decline in market share in 2010, impacting FT’s top-line |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
March 2010 Access this report
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Vodafone December quarter update: inflection attained
Vodafone’s European revenue growth improved by 1.4 percentage points in the December 2009 quarter to reach -3.2%, the first improvement since the start of the economic slowdown in 2008
While data revenue is growing fast in absolute terms, its contribution to growth is flat to slightly down, with the main driver being more traditional services improving due to the recovery in year-on-year GDP growth |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
February 2010 Access this report
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Update on KPN’s fibre roll-out
In The Netherlands, KPN faces strong competitive pressure on voice and broadband from cable operators historically addressing subscription TV services due to their superior fibre/coax networks – KPN needs to upgrade its ADSL network to increase IPTV coverage and bandwidth to compete effectively on the triple play |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
December 2009 Access this report
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Orange TV premium content strategy
France Télécom’s Orange TV premium strategy presents an interesting example of diversification into low cost ‘light’ pay-TV offers by an incumbent telecoms operator. Orange Sport and Orange Cinéma Séries are offered exclusively to Orange's 2.55 million TV subscribers, and five quarters after launch, adoption is 20%. This report draws several lessons on this type of venture for other incumbent operators |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
December 2009 Access this report
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