French broadband: down to three players, for how long?
Just three players now account for most French broadband connections: Orange’s DSL market share is closing on 50%, Iliad’s rose to 25% from consolidation with Alice, while SFR’s dropped to 23.7%, with Neuf’s rebrand imminent. Cable remains a minimal presence on broadband |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
September 2008 Access this report
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French fixed line 2009 corporate results
Despite the recession, in 2009 the French broadband market added 1.8 million connections to reach 19.6 million, but we expect the deceleration in growth to persist in 2010
Orange’s leading position weakened further in Q4 2009, despite retail price cuts, and we expect a further decline in market share in 2010, impacting FT’s top-line |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
March 2010 Access this report
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French fixed line retail upheaval
French ISPs are about to enter a disruptive four month window of penalty-free broadband subscriber churn, triggered by the VAT rise on IPTV
SFR has followed Iliad’s Free by offering unmetered fixed-to-mobile calls at the risk of ARPU decline
We expect Free’s market share to stabilise, whilst those of SFR and Bouygues should rise to the detriment of Orange |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
January 2011 Access this report
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French telecoms retail highlights
Late entrant Bouygues Telecom is gaining broadband market share via the quad play. Orange and SFR have now also launched quad plays, but Iliad’s mobile offers will be ready only in 2012
Iliad hopes to use its new Freebox to energise recruitment around new IPTV services in Q4 2010. SFR will also launch a new box
Led by a likely VAT hike for triple play bundled IPTV services in 2011, triple play pricing is set to rise after many years, from €30 to €35/month. FTTH upgrades in urban areas will be gaining visibility this winter |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
September 2010 Access this report
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Germany: Update on pay and free-to-air TV
Unlike other European TV markets, the digital transition started in Germany 15 years ago and is having little impact on advertising or audience share trends of leading FTA broadcasters, RTL Group and ProSiebenSat.1
RTL Group and ProSiebenSat.1 each have both German and international FTA TV operations, but German FTA TV is more profitable. RTL and ProSieben operate a de facto duopoly in advertising, with broadly stable market shares |
Media, TV, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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H3G 2008 results: Italy drags the group down
H3G group’s H2 2008 results showed a 5% decline in revenue on a constant currency basis and a return to strongly negative underlying EBITDA, with a margin of -17% in H2 2008 and -8% for the year as a whole, versus a margin of -1% in 2007
The UK performed reasonably well, with 11% revenue growth and improving margins, albeit still being cashflow negative, but Italy suffered from an 18% revenue decline and falling margins |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
March 2009 Access this report
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H3G H1 2009 results: falling short
H3G’s H1 2009 results showed some improvement on revenue growth and profitability on a very weak H2 2008, but it is still growing very slowly while barely EBITDA positive
The company has at last admitted that it will not be EBIT positive in 2009, and without some major changes we doubt it ever will be |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
August 2009 Access this report
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H3G HY 2012 results: UK strong, Italy boosted by accounting
H3G’s European operations accelerated their underlying service revenue growth to 7.8% in H1 2012, and EBIT margin improved slightly from 3% to 4%, but the growth appeared to be significantly helped by aggressive handset subsidies in Italy, with the company’s unconventional accounting policy disguising the impact on EBIT The UK business continued to perform very well, with contract net additions strong again helped by falling churn, and service revenue growth accelerating from 13% to 14%. |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
August 2012 Access this report
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Iliad - Destiny
Iliad is among the very few European altnets that have made unbundling a profitable business, despite France's highly contested market for broadband. This report examines Iliad's current positioning in this market, and the development of the media side of the triple play to grow ARPU and differentiate the brand |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
September 2006 Access this report
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Iliad 2006 FY results
Iliad’s 2006 results were solid with broadband subscriber growth on target, DSL market share up one point to 19%, ARPU up 7% to €34.5/month and churn (enviably) at just below 1% per month. Over 1 million of Iliad’s subscribers have dropped France Télécom line rental and Iliad now completely owns those fixed-line telecoms customer relationships |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
March 2007 Access this report
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Iliad and 3G – the black hole beckons
Iliad is getting ever closer to securing the French 4th 3G licence on terms with which it is happy, with progress slow but seemingly inevitable, and a licence award likely in H2 2008 followed by service launch in 2010 |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
December 2007 Access this report
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Iliad buys Alice
Iliad is to recover the No. 2 spot on the French broadband market, behind France Télécom’s Orange, after acquiring Alice, ending Telecom Italia’s ill fated five-year French venture |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
June 2008 Access this report
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Iliad FY 2008 headline KPIs and 4th 3G licence bid
In Q4 2008 Iliad added 100,000 subscribers in a slowing French broadband market
A restructured 4th 3G licence call for tender is now expected in March, with a cost of €206 million for a 2x5MHz spectrum block, which Iliad is expected to bid for
We remain sceptical that Iliad will earn a return from this, with the 3G-only business model challenging even with a reduced licence cost and restricted network rollout
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Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
February 1009 Access this report
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Iliad in transition
Thanks to bargain prices, France’s Iliad managed to grab 5.2 million mobile subscribers in its first year and to increase its fixed broadband market share, while achieving close to cash flow breakeven at the Group level
In 2013 Free Mobile’s termination charges will fall back to parity with those of its competitors, dramatically shrinking its gross margin, and likely pushing mobile EBITDA firmly negative again |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2013 Access this report
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Iliad unopposed for 4th mobile licence
Iliad is the only candidate in the rerun of the French 4th 3G Licence tender and we believe its bid will be successful
Free Mobile could launch by the autumn of 2011 under a ‘low cost’ model
We remain doubtful on the venture’s economic prospects – Iliad appears to underestimate the network and subscriber acquisition costs required to build a mobile operator of profitable scale |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
October 2009 Access this report
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Iliad withstands new competitive pressures
France’s altnet Iliad again delivered stronger than expected profit and cash flow growth in 2009 on the back of continued strong results at the Free brand and a positive contribution from the Alice brand
These results demonstrate the continued pull of Free for the triple play customer despite intensifying competition, including from cable, making the low cost, low churn business model sustainable
By 2012, we expect fixed line profitability to increase and deliver enough cash flow to finance the launch of the Free Mobile project |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2010 Access this report
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Iliad’s 2008 results and prospects
Iliad, now France’s number two broadband provider, will increase total revenues by 10% per year by 2012, mainly by growing its subscriber base (rather than ARPU) in a market however rapidly reaching maturity
Excluding mobile, the EBITDA margin could rise by five percentage points to 40% in 2012, but a mobile launch in 2011 would pare the margin down to 32% |
Mobile, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
April 2009 Access this report
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Iliad’s Freebox V6
France’s Iliad will rekindle broadband subscriber recruitment with its Freebox V6 (router and TV set-top box), and extension of the triple play to include unmetered fixed-to-mobile calls
Freebox V6 is positioned as an innovative premium quasi-PC device including a 250GB PVR, a Blu-ray player, a game console and a web browser, re-establishing Iliad’s technology leadership
Iliad expects that V6 subscribers will be less profitable in the short term than in the medium term, but cumulative free cash flow guidance for the ADSL business remains unchanged for 2010-12 |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
December 2010 Access this report
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IPO of Neuf Cegetel
Neuf Cegetel will make an initial public offering (IPO) on Euronext Paris on 25th October. Proceeds of about €847 million are expected (if the ‘green shoe’ option is fully exercised and the price is set in the mid-range), of which about €250 million will be fresh money to finance the acquisition of AOL FR and other properties, and the rest mainly to founder Louis Dreyfus and exiting shareholder Suez. SFR (controlled 56/44 by Vivendi/Vodafone) will maintain its stake at 40.6%. The resulting float should be 20.3% of equity |
Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
October 2006 Access this report
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Kabel Deutschland IPO
Kabel Deutschland, being floated on 22 March, has a credible track record of profitable growth and some upside potential to lure investors
Rising broadband and telephony take-up should more than offset basic cable TV erosion, delivering a CAGR of 7% in revenues, and a threefold rise in cash flow to €578 million by FY2015, according to our model
Downside risks include Kabel Deutschland’s high debt and the intense competition for the triple play customer being waged by Deutsche Telekom |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
March 2010 Access this report
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