UK fixed telecoms market: broadband and telephony trends to Q1 2012
In this report we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to March 2012, based on the published results of the major service providers.
Highlights for the March quarter include broadband subscriptions exceeding 21 million, a sudden uptick in broadband market net additions and local loop unbundling accounting for a record 40% of broadband subscriptions. The proportion of unbundled lines that are fully unbundled exceeded two thirds for the first time. |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
June 2012 Access this report
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Apple, television and disruption
The Apple rumour mill turns to television, with widespread speculation that Apple will shortly announce… something, that will offer a different approach to the TV experience. However, if Apple distributes TV content in new ways, it will need to work with existing channels and often pay providers, who are unlikely to enable fundamental disruption to their business models. |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
June 2012 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q1 2012: Modest improvements, but worse to come
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request. |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
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Vodafone FY 2011/12 results: Revenue growth improves, margins shakier
Vodafone Europe’s revenue growth improved by 1.5ppts on a reported basis and by 0.3ppts on an underlying basis; given the deterioration in macroeconomic conditions, this is a strong result, and Vodafone extended its outperformance of competitors
Margins were weaker with European EBITDA margin dropping about 1ppt on an underlying basis in H2. SAC/SRCs were for once well under control, but a very small rise in ‘other’ costs pushed margins down; with revenue growth well below inflation, maintaining margins is a massive challenge |
Mobile, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
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TalkTalk FY 2011/12 results: walking the talk
Strong cost reduction and mix effects enabled TalkTalk to report a third successive year of high cash flow growth, in spite of declining revenue due to high churn The company appears to have retained its strong position at the value end of the market, and this should result in continuing sales combining with falling churn to generate positive revenue growth Although high speed broadband and a YouView-based TV offer will dilute profitability to an extent, this should be outweighed by other factors, generating further significant cash flow growth |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
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iPhone passes 50% smartphone share in the USA
In the last few quarters the iPhone has grown to 50% of total smartphone unit sales in the USA, while smartphones overall are now around 42% of the installed base
In the last 12 months we estimate US mobile operators spent around $15bn subsidising iPhones, slightly under 9% of their revenue |
Mobile, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
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BT Q4 and full year 2011/12 results: workmanlike
Continuing strong cost control enabled BT to meet its annual guidance for the third year running Underlying cash flow growth continues to be compromised by the impact of LLU and IP on BT Wholesale, with fibre deployment providing only limited defence BT is proving adept at survival in a hostile environment, but further gains will continue to be modest and hard won |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
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Numericable: beyond deleveraging
France’s sole cable operator, the smallest of the country’s five broadband providers, is sub-scale on the retail market and the heavy cost of servicing its debt leaves only meagre resources to leverage its superior network commercially
However, thanks to its white label deal with Bouygues, Numericable has resumed revenue growth and should achieve its 2014 debt/EBITDA target
As France Télécom’s network upgrade to fibre progresses, the main upside for Numericable lies in a closer alliance with Bouygues and possibly other DSL providers |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse March quarter results: Prepay declines continue to weigh
CPW’s key operating metrics worsened again in the March quarter, with connection volume growth dropping to -19% and like-for-like revenue growth dropping to -5.5%
Weakness in the UK prepay market continued to affect CPW’s results, with volumes again down 30-40%, but contract sales did not mitigate this as much as last quarter, with growth in the UK but declines in continental Europe |
Mobile, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
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Still headroom for growth - Sky Q3 2012 results
The weak spot of 15,000 net TV additions in a positive quarter for operating profit growth reflects the continuing downward pressures of a struggling economy, with little indication of headwinds to do with connected TV Very strong growth in home communications in a weak quarter for TV net additions underline Sky’s competitive strengths in a market now close to maturity, as well as bringing revenue growth and churn reduction benefits Overshadowing Sky’s Q3 results, Ofcom’s investigation into the “fit and proper” status of News Corp’s shareholding in BSkyB is unlikely to affect the company |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
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Everything Everywhere Q1 2012 results: Encouraging volume bounce back
EE’s subscriber growth in Q1 was solid enough given a market slowdown, but disappointing given T-Mobile’s Full Monty tariff launch. With O2’s ‘On and On’ launched in late March, the outlook for subscriber growth will be tougher in the rest of 2012
Service revenue growth was more encouraging, improving by 1.5 ppts after a disappointing Q4. This appears to have been largely volume driven (i.e. existing users using their handsets more), which is encouraging for the operators yet to report Q1 figures (i.e. Vodafone and O2) |
Mobile, Telecoms |
May 2012 Access this report
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VMed Q1 12 results: increased spending on customer equipment and advertising weighs
VMed’s underlying financial performance in Q1 was hit by continuing high capex on customer equipment for TiVo and high speed broadband, and on marketing opex to retain customers Strong take-up of next generation TV, lower cable churn and continuing progress at the Mobile and Business divisions continue to give us confidence that the company’s strategy is working Despite early indications that most cable customers will accept the latest round of price increases, the outlook for underlying cash flow growth in 2012 appears limited |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
April 2012 Access this report
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Vodafone and Cable & Wireless Worldwide: a UK telecoms milestone in prospect
Vodafone’s proposed acquisition of Cable & Wireless Worldwide is far from a done deal and is unlikely to be completed until September
The cost synergies are real but likely slim, with the main rationale being to cost effectively expand Vodafone’s fixed enterprise business in the UK, and to gain the expertise to do this elsewhere |
Mobile, Fixed line, Telecoms |
April 2012 Access this report
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UK internet advertising powers ahead
According to IABUK/PwC, internet advertising grew 14.4% like-for-like in 2011 to £4.8 billion, overtaking press to become the single largest advertising medium
Search was again the main growth driver, surging 17.5% to £2.7 billion last year, while display rose 13.4% and classifieds increased just 5.2% on the weak economy
We now forecast internet advertising will increase 14% in 2012 and 12% in 2013, taking spend to £6.1 billion or 36% of UK advertising, up from 30% in 2011 |
Media, Mobile, Internet, Telecoms |
April 2012 Access this report
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H3G FY 2011 results: UK strengthens more, Italy weakens further
H3G’s European operations slightly improved underlying service revenue growth, and EBIT margin improved from 0% to 3%, but the latter figure was flattered by a change in handset subsidy accounting; without this change, EBIT would likely have been negative
The UK and Italian performances further diverged, with UK growth accelerating in H2 to +13%, and Italy decelerating to -14%, despite a renewed (and expensive) push for contract subscribers in Italy |
Mobile, Telecoms |
April 2012 Access this report
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UK mobile advertising begins to take off
UK mobile advertising jumped 157% year-on-year to £203 million in 2011, marginally higher than our forecast of £180 million, with strong growth in both search and display
Mobile advertising now accounts for 6% of internet search and display spend, but still lags mobile devices’ share of internet consumption, which has been rising strongly due to rapid smartphone and tablet adoption, and we estimate is now at around 15%
We expect much of the lag between mobile’s share of internet consumption and ad spend to disappear over the next five years, indicating continued high growth |
Media, Mobile, Internet, Telecoms |
March 2012 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q4 2011: from bad to worse
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
March 2012 Access this report
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Themes from Mobile World Congress
Mobile operators, services and handset makers are diverging – they all come to the MWC but have increasingly little to say to each other as their businesses move in very different directions
In the context of -5% European mobile revenue growth, the MNOs at the MWC were a sober bunch, focusing on industrial services, defensive moves around messaging, and a (not unreasonable) plea to regulators for some relief |
Mobile, Telecoms |
March 2012 Access this report
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Iliad gears up its investment
Iliad accelerated fixed line subscriber recruitment in 2011 thanks to a substantial increase in capital expenditure on its Révolution box, shrinking its cash flow margin
Iliad’s margin should recover somewhat in 2012 thanks to decreasing box prices. Fibre deployment is being scaled back due to weak demand
Mobile operating losses may be modest this year, but we expect pressure will build up in 2013 as network running costs rise and the termination rate asymmetry drops out |
Mobile, Fixed line, Telecoms |
March 2012 Access this report
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The new iPad: solid, predictable and devastating
Apple refreshed the iPad yesterday, delivering few surprises, a market leading product and a set of features that we expect to ensure continued dominance into 2013 |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
March 2012 Access this report
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