BT Q2 2011/12 results: light before the dawn?
BT reported its eighth successive quarter of strong growth in broadband volume and is aiming to complete deployment of next generation access one year early, yet within existing capex guidance for the group
Progress at Global Services and BT Wholesale is continuing, but remains very gradual
We continue to expect guidance for the current financial year to be met, though not significantly exceeded. But broadband momentum and excellent cost control suggest the prospects for FY2012/13 are improving |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
November 2011 Access this report
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Virgin Media Q3 2011 results: mixed not nixed
Q3 results were contradictory, with accelerating demand for enhanced services and resilient revenue, but high churn and weak growth in fundamental cash flow
Cost increases struck us as justifiable in the longer term and were in some cases temporary. We share management’s confidence that there is better news to come, particularly at Virgin Media Business
Nonetheless, we remain of the view that future cash flow growth is likely to be significantly lower than that seen over the past two years, particularly given the deteriorating economic outlook |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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Sky still climbing, but going getting tougher
Sky’s Q1 2012 produced strong 16% year-on-year headline growth in adjusted operating profits, although weakening TV product net additions underlined the challenging economic conditions
Churn remains comparatively low in spite of the economic conditions, while Sky’s current round of major investment in entertainment content, now showing the first signs of bearing fruit, could prove vital to holding churn down and stimulating gross additions |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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Apple’s results, the iPhone and Android
Apple is now a $108bn company, with annual revenue up 66% from a year ago and 40% gross margins. September quarter iPhone sales dipped to 17m ahead of a new product launch, but Apple still sold 72m in the last 12m, compared to 40m in the 12m to September 2010
Apple has now sold 40m iPads for $20.3bn revenue, and 11m in the last quarter. All other competing devices have sold perhaps 4m. We expect Apple’s dominance to continue through 2012 and potentially beyond |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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Openreach's revised pricing for Physical Infrastructure Access
Openreach has announced large cuts in the prices of some important components of physical infrastructure access (PIA). A further substantial reduction in duct prices is possible as a result of an adjustment by Ofcom to Openreach’s regulatory asset value (RAV)
The reductions are helpful to the economics of bids by altnets such as Fujitsu for government funds to deploy rural next generation access (NGA), and to Virgin Media, as it expands its existing cable network footprint |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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Amazon makes its move into tablets
Amazon has taken the ereader to $79 and the tablet to $200. The Amazon Fire is everything that Android tablets are not: a coherent high-quality user experience rather than a box of components. It will sell well, while new sub-$100 Kindles will reinforce Amazon’s dominance of ebooks
Amazon began as a bookshop, but just 30% of Q2 North American sales were physical media of any kind. The Fire is part of a broader strategy – to embed Amazon in online buying of everything from shoes to nappies to iPads and TVs. The Kindle Fire is a shop window on every coffee table |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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Apple refreshes the iPhone
Apple will release the iPhone 4S later this month, with substantially upgraded internals but the same design. Despite disappointment at the lack of something with a ‘5’ on the box, this is a solid update that maintains Apple’s competitive positioning
The most significant omission was a lower-priced iPhone. Apple sells the 3GS and now the 4 at lower prices, but lacks a dedicated device to address the sub $300 (SIM-free) market where most future growth will come from. We think this is only a matter of time |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2011 Access this report
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The mobile platform wars
In this report we outline the current state and likely development of the war between mobile platforms. We discuss installed bases and activity levels, the key issues facing Apple and Android, including Android fragmentation and Google's acquisition of Motorola, and go on to look at the tablet market and the outlook for RIM, Nokia and Windows Phone. |
Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q2 2011: MTR cuts hit but stable underlying
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request |
Mobile, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
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UK broadband and telephony trends: Summer 2011
In this presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to June 2011, based on the published results of the major service providers. This quarter’s edition includes a first look at high speed broadband subscriber volumes, and our analysis of broadband growth in 2010 based on data recently released by Ofcom. |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
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H3G H1 2011 results: UK strengthens, Italy weakens
After strong underlying improvements in growth and profitability in 2010, in H1 2011 H3G Europe’s service revenue growth was steady at 3% and margins only slightly improved to (underlying) EBIT breakeven
In the UK, service revenue growth accelerated to 7% (from -1% in H2 2010), with EBIT maintained at about breakeven, as the UK company’s ongoing strong contract subscriber growth fed through
Italy suffered roughly the opposite fate, with service revenue growth falling to -8%, as its recent subscriber losses fed through, and EBIT remained firmly negative |
Mobile, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
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BT Q1 2011/12 results: marking time
BT reported another quarter of strong growth in broadband volume, helped by high competitor churn and accelerating take up of the Infinity high speed broadband service
But broadband volume growth did not feed through to financial performance at BT Retail, Global Services remained stuck in low gear and BT Wholesale performance weakened further
The company should make its guidance for the year to March, but evidence that it will do more than the minimum remains elusive |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
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Sky FY 2011 results: excellent year of delivery
Fiscal 2011 was a vintage year for Sky, which reported a 23% growth in operating profit and 51% increase in free cash flow as it started to reap the full benefits of its investment in multi-product growth
Q4 2011 showed signs that tougher economic conditions are starting to bite, although the sharp fall in TV product additions was balanced by a fourth consecutive bumper quarter in home communications, in which Sky outperformed the rest of the market |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2011 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse Q1 2011/12 results: weak start to the year
CPW Europe had a weak first quarter, with like-for-like revenue growth of -3.3%, with all of the drop coming from the 18 to 24 month contract length shift in the UK
We expect its performance to improve through the rest of its fiscal year, but it will need to in order to hit even the bottom end of its full year guidance
The US mobile retailing operation is doing much better, with very strong revenue growth, and is likely again to exceed full year guidance |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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Virgin Media Q2 2011 results: resilient but with limits
VMed’s Q2 results were respectable, but quirky, with resilient underlying revenue and strong cash flow, but exceptionally weak cable volumes
Virgin Mobile is performing better than ever, but steam continues to seep from the cable cash flow boiler
A TiVo push and further progress at Virgin Media Business are still to come, but we expect a trend of gradual decline in fundamental cash flow growth |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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Vodafone June quarter 2011 results: Spain continues to drag
Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth dropped by 0.5ppts to -1.3% in the June quarter, although most of this was due to a sharp MTR cut in the UK
Revenue in Spain was very weak due to a price re-adjustment, but trends elsewhere were broadly positive, with voice minutes growth improving overall
Medium term prospects are good, with MTR cuts fading, competitive performance improving and data growth likely to re-accelerate, but we expect declining growth in Turkey to drive a worse performance in the short term |
Mobile, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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UK residential high speed broadband outlook: leading the horse to water
BT’s plans to deploy next generation access, combined with state-aided rural broadband projects, look set to give almost three quarters of UK households access to high speed broadband by 2016
New wireless technology is a feasible substitute for wireline for some low-end users and in specific areas, but we do not expect it to have a major impact on high speed broadband deployment |
Media, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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Apple, Android and tablet market share
Apple has now sold 25m iPads since launch, worth $15bn, and will probably sell 40-50m in 2011. Competing tablets have sold perhaps 2-3m in total so far and will not be competitive with the iPad until 2012 at the earliest
Android phones are now far outselling iPhones, but benefit from a narrower user experience gap and from selling at a half of the price. Android tablets must compete with the iPad at the same or higher price points, a far harder task. We believe it is possible the iPad will retain a 50%+ share |
Media, Mobile, Press, Technology, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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Update on BSkyB forecasts
All the recent attention to BSkyB has had to do with the proposed News Corporation takeover and its impact on the share price. For the BSkyB business itself, we think the troubles of News International have so far had very little effect, as there is nothing to link the pay-TV operator Sky directly with the News of the World, the epicentre of the current judicial and political storm. Nothing, that is, apart from the Murdoch factor, which certainly seemed to do no harm to sales of the final News of the World edition on Sunday 10 July which topped 4.5 million. |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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What does ‘fit and proper’ mean?
Ofcom is entitled to consider whether News Corp is ‘fit and proper’ to own BSkyB’s channels, not the company itself
Precedent suggests that Ofcom will only be able to conclude that News Corp is unfit if the acquiring company’s directors are found guilty of a serious criminal offence. Suspicions, allegations and mistrust are absolutely not enough
We believe that Ofcom will only be able to assess whether News Corp is ‘fit and proper’ to own Sky channels after the transaction is concluded |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Press, Telecoms |
July 2011 Access this report
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