UK broadband and telephony trends to September 2010
In this short presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to September 2010, based on the published results of the major service providers and Ofcom telephony data. We include our own estimates where reported data is incomplete. This quarter’s edition includes a revision to some historical trends resulting from our own interpretation of BT’s recent adjustment to the volume of unbundled lines. |
Media, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
December 2010 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q3 2010: smartphones surge, revenue doesn't
European mobile revenue growth improved by 0.8ppts in Q3 to reach -0.3%, but all of this improvement and more was due to easing regulatory pressures, with underlying growth actually declining marginally
GDP growth continues to improve year-on-year, but in the current low confidence environment underlying mobile revenue growth is not (yet) responding. Smartphone sales are surging, but their net impact on revenue is hard to discern |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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Germany: Update on pay and free-to-air TV
Unlike other European TV markets, the digital transition started in Germany 15 years ago and is having little impact on advertising or audience share trends of leading FTA broadcasters, RTL Group and ProSiebenSat.1
RTL Group and ProSiebenSat.1 each have both German and international FTA TV operations, but German FTA TV is more profitable. RTL and ProSieben operate a de facto duopoly in advertising, with broadly stable market shares |
Media, TV, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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Cable & Wireless Worldwide interim results 2010/11: not much excitement
C&W Worldwide’s performance over the six months to September was strong in terms of cash flow growth, although this was partly due to lower bad debt cost
Revenue decline is easing, but weakness in the mid-market business and reduced public sector spending are weighing on EBITDA
Looking ahead, this should improve somewhat, as the retail mid-market business recovers, but we expect growth in the core business to remain unexciting |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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TTG H1 2010/11 interim results: the Dido effect
TalkTalk Group (TTG) revenue growth for the six months to September was flat on a like-for-like basis; broadband net additions were affected by heavy churn among former Tiscali customers as the migration process got under way
Guidance for broadband net adds to March has been reduced by two thirds, but the prospect of improved efficiency from migrations and strong ARPU growth has enabled financial guidance for the full year to be maintained |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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HD platform differentiation
A large gap has opened up between the different platforms in the five years since HD launched in the UK, with the pay-TV platforms – above all Sky – gaining a large lead over the free-to-air satellite and terrestrial platforms
With HD Ready TV sets now counting for almost half the total population of TV sets in the UK, the big issue facing the free-to-air platforms is the number of channels, where Sky (now 52 HD channels) and Virgin Media (now 28 HD channels) are expanding their lead over the free-to-air platforms Freeview (now 4 channels) and Freesat (now 3 channels) |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Technology, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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BT Q2 2010/11 results: digging in
Group performance to September was affected by increased investment in fibre and other defensive measures, as expected
Despite strong retail broadband subscriber growth, the core business remains under siege. High speed broadband should – eventually – provide an effective defence, but not much more
The Global Services turnaround is continuing, and further progress at GS supported by improving stability in the rest of the group should enable new guidance to be met |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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Vodafone half year 2010/11 results: slow improvements, strong strategy
Vodafone Europe’s underlying revenue growth rose slightly in the September quarter, performing well in a market that is still only slowly recovering. Control of fixed costs was strong, but rising handset subsidies pushed margins down again
Vodafone’s updated strategy contains strong elements of a focus on the nitty gritty and a move away from the more expansive desires of the past, which is excellent. Successful implementation remains a challenge, but at least head office is likely to be a help, not a hindrance |
Mobile, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse 2010/11 interim results: US driven growth
CPW’s European handset business had a steady quarter, with growth dipping slightly on the previous quarter but still in line with full year guidance. Smartphone sales are surging, and CPW is orientating its business towards them, but their impact is not unambiguously positive in Europe
The US handset business continued to enjoy strong growth, with this side of their business benefitting strongly from smartphone growth, and this outperformance led the company to increase its full year EBIT guidance |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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Vivendi scenarios for 2011
Vivendi is close to being in a cash position to buy out minority shareholdings in SFR and Canal+, shedding the image of a ‘conglomerate’ of partly owned and diverse assets, which has weighed on valuation Acquiring Vodafone’s 44% stake in SFR (now only a question of price) would allow Vivendi to rebrand itself as a telecoms story, serving France, with Maroc Télécom and mainly Brazil’s GVT supplying the upside To fully acquire Canal+, Vivendi’s offer will need to consider Lagardère’s option of floating its 20% stake. |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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Virgin Media Q3 2010 results: resilience under pressure
VMed’s Q3 results showed continuing strength in the face of heavy marketing by BT Retail and BSkyB, although cable churn increased significantly
There are plenty of further challenges on the horizon, including a downturn in consumer confidence and later, the launch of YouView and wider deployment by BT of next generation access
The broad based nature of the company’s growth and its plans for further product development in TV and broadband continue to give us confidence in the potential for further growth in cash flow, albeit at a more modest pace |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2010 Access this report
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Versatile multiproduct strategy: Sky fiscal Q1 2011 results
A switch in marketing focus from HD to home communications and sports appeared chiefly responsible for a record quarter in multiproduct take-up, with the biggest increases being registered in broadband, telephony and line rental
Although Q1 2011 net HD take-up halved against the previous quarter, partly reflecting reduced emphasis in marketing plus the World Cup factor, there is abundant room for growth and we expect a strong Q2 as Sky enlarges its HD offer with the ITV digital channels, and prepares for the launch of Sky Atlantic HD in early calendar 2011 |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms |
October 2010 Access this report
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Windows Phone 7: fast but late
Microsoft’s new Windows Phone 7 operating system is launching with a big bang: ten handsets, eighteen operators, and a massive marketing campaign
The OS itself is positioned firmly in between iPhone and Android in terms of ease-of-use and customisability; it is as fast as the best-in-class but no faster; and its interface is bold but will not be to everybody’s taste |
Media, Mobile, Internet, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2010 Access this report
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Ofcom gives YouView clearance
Ofcom’s decision not to investigate Project Canvas under the Competition Act removes one more regulatory obstacle to the launch of the broadband connected TV service with the brand name YouView
It looks increasingly as if the YouView launch will experience further delay, with autumn 2011 looking steadily more likely as disputes continue over the satisfactoriness of the technical specifications released by YouView for meeting manufacturer needs |
Media, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2010 Access this report
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UK Residential Broadband Market 2010
The decline in UK residential broadband market growth has paused due to accelerating adoption by older householders and increased household formation. We expect 970,000 net additions in 2010 and 20.5 million broadband households by 2015. However we expect growth will continue to decline from 2011 as the impact of the government spending review feeds into consumer confidence and the market becomes increasingly saturated |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Technology, Telecoms |
October 2010 Access this report
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Everything Everywhere: UK market leader (for a bit)
Everything Everywhere’s maiden investor day presentation was soured by the disappointing results it reported for Q2 2010, with service revenue growth underperforming its UK competitors by 7 percentage points. At current relative growth rates, O2 will retake its lead by June 2011 |
Mobile, Telecoms |
October 2010 Access this report
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French telecoms retail highlights
Late entrant Bouygues Telecom is gaining broadband market share via the quad play. Orange and SFR have now also launched quad plays, but Iliad’s mobile offers will be ready only in 2012
Iliad hopes to use its new Freebox to energise recruitment around new IPTV services in Q4 2010. SFR will also launch a new box
Led by a likely VAT hike for triple play bundled IPTV services in 2011, triple play pricing is set to rise after many years, from €30 to €35/month. FTTH upgrades in urban areas will be gaining visibility this winter |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
September 2010 Access this report
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Mobile data economics: the limit of unlimited
The unlimited mobile data plan, rightfully credited with being a key part of the current boom in handset-based mobile internet use, is now being scaled back across the US and UK, with capped data bundles of various sizes now preferred
The economics of data are such that current price plans (including unlimited ones) combined with current average smartphone data usage rates are still respectably profitable for the mobile operators on an incremental basis, provided they do not substitute for the far more profitable voice and text messaging services |
Mobile, Telecoms |
September 2010 Access this report
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UK broadband and telephony trends to June 2010
There were approximately 19 million fixed broadband lines in the UK at the end of June 2010 including those used by small and medium enterprises (SMEs)
Year-on-year subscriber growth in Q2 increased by half a percentage point, following stabilisation in Q1, the first material since the early years of UK broadband |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2010 Access this report
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H3G H1 2010 results: underlying stagnation
H3G Group’s reported results claimed strong growth and rapidly improving profitability, but, taking out the effect of an accounting change, an acquisition and some one off income, underlying revenue was flat and profitability improved only marginally
The parent company is still guiding to positive EBIT from the H3G group for the full 2010 year, but this will require either further creative accounting or very strictly controlled spending on subscriber acquisition, at the expense of future revenue growth |
Mobile, Telecoms |
August 2010 Access this report
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