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European mobile in Q1 2014: Underlying remains weak, but consolidation progresses

8 July 2014
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European mobile service revenue growth improved to -7.6% in Q1 2014 from -9.0% in the previous quarter, but most of the improvement came from a drop in the regulated MTR cut impact, with underlying growth only improving 0.2ppts

This is in spite of continued improvements in GDP growth and the highest level of consumer confidence in six years, confirming that the often-blamed economic conditions actually have been having little impact on the market, with competitive intensity the real cause

For this very reason, the approval by the EC of in-market mergers in Germany and Ireland has been warmly welcomed by the industry and investors. Our view is that market repair is dependent on a change of attitude of the incumbents towards long term investment and away from chasing short term subscriber share via price discounting; consolidation may well help with this, but it is neither necessary nor sufficient

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Pricing under pressure: European mobile in Q4 2023

10 April 2024

Service revenue took a dip in Q4 to 1.5% as a waning price rise impact in the UK combined with the loss of positive one-offs in Germany.

We expect growth to slow further through 2024 as many operators implement lower index-linked price rises which are also coming under increasing regulatory scrutiny.

Vodafone has made progress on its turnaround plan—striking deals for its Italian and Spanish units—but it is not yet out of the woods, with ongoing challenges in Germany and approval still uncertain in the UK.

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Sky/DAZN peace challenged: Bundesliga tries to buck the downward trend

8 April 2024

The German football league’s rights tender for its 2025-29 cycle is designed to create competitive tension between Sky and DAZN.

Based on precedents and public statements, we would expect Sky to increase coverage and DAZN to scale it down without a head-on bidding battle.

With low international potential, the Bundesliga can only count on its deep fan base to meet competitive pressure from the Premier League.

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Disney: Iger prevails at AGM

4 April 2024

Shareholders have voted down director nominees proposed by Trian Partners and Blackwells Capital, providing a convincing, but hard fought, victory for Bob Iger and the current board

The proxy battle surfaced useful ideas and recommendations that Disney should implement: appointing a Chief Technology Officer to the C-Suite would help the company better respond to technology-first competitors and AI

After months of distraction, Disney leadership can now focus on important unresolved issues: completing the acquisition of Hulu, achieving profitability in direct-to-consumer services, and what to do with Linear Networks

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