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Published research is distributed to clients in full. For more information on subscribing to our research, please contact us. Executive Summaries of reports are available on this website six months after release. They can be seen by clicking on the link from the list below.

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Recent Publications

All reports are listed here immediately on publication

UK Internet Trends [2009-076]
Driven by growing broadband connectivity, the internet continues to gain share of media consumption and advertising at the expense of traditional media, hit by the double whammy of substitution to onl...
More ...    02 Jul 2009

Ofcom pay-TV consultation: end of round three [2009-075e]
·         There is a reasonable chance that, by the middle of 2010, Ofcom will introduce regulations concerning the availability and pricing of wholesale premium movie and sports content, as outlined...
More ...    30 Jun 2009

OFT approach to local and regional newspaper mergers [2009-074e]
·         To coincide with the Digital Britain Report, the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) released its report on local media merger rules, confirming their application to newspaper consolidation althoug...
More ...    19 Jun 2009

Digital Britain Report: anti-piracy measures [2009-073e]
·         Digital Britain Report’s “Universal Service Commitment” will make high speed broadband ubiquitously available, thus potentially boosting the adoption of illegal file-sharing by UK internet u...
More ...    18 Jun 2009

UK broadband and telephony market Q1 2009 [2009-072]
·         UK broadband market growth continues to slow, with net additions more than halving year-on-year to 284,300 and annualised market growth in single figures ·         Carphone Warehouse (Talk...
More ...    18 Jun 2009

Digital Britain Final Report: implications for UK telecoms [2009-071e]
·         The Digital Britain report’s proposed fixed line levy to fund rural NGA may well never become law, but if implemented, could end up being absorbed by the service providers, with a disproport...
More ...    17 Jun 2009

Setanta at bay [2009-070e]
·         A last minute rescue proposition has postponed the threat of Setanta entering into administration by at least another week, subject to meeting its revised payment schedule of sums owing to t...
More ...    17 Jun 2009

Prisa-Mediapro football deal clears Digital+ sale [2009-069e]
·         Under recession-induced financial stress, rival Spanish media groups Prisa and Mediapro have settled a three year battle over football rights, giving Digital+ secure access to domestic footb...
More ...    16 Jun 2009

Ofcom statement on LLU pricing: gently does it [2009-068e]
·         Ofcom’s recent statement on LLU pricing has increased the amount which BT Openreach can charge unbundlers for full LLU over the next two years by about 8% overall ·         We estimate the...
More ...    15 Jun 2009

Carphone Warehouse 2008/09 FY results [2009-067e]
·         Carphone Warehouse’s distribution business had a slightly mixed year, with strong volumes and revenue mitigated by a sharp drop in margins and profit, with margin being sacrificed for market...
More ...    08 Jun 2009

Sky leads race for Virgin Media's VMtv [2009-066e]
·         According to press reports, Sky has lodged a bid of about £160 million for the VMtv content arm of Virgin Media (VMed), estimated to be 50-60% higher than other offers in the latest and fina...
More ...    05 Jun 2009

Mobile revenue growth to March 2009 and outlook [2009-065]
·         Reported European mobile revenue growth dropped sharply in the March 2009 quarter, dropping 1.7ppts to reach -1.0% growth, and underlying growth fell even more, with a drop of 2.3ppts ·...
More ...    05 Jun 2009

Recorded Music and Music Publishing [2009-064]
Our annual review of the state of global recorded music sales in 2009 makes for gloomy reading. On top of the established declining trend for CD sales, down 13% in 2008, ringtone revenues started tren...
More ...    04 Jun 2009

NGA in Italy [2009-045]
This report concludes our series of country reports (France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden) on next generation access on the Continent. Although Italy boasts the largest FTTH network in E...
More ...    06 Apr 2009

UK broadband and telephony market Q4 2008 [2009-042]
·         UK broadband subscriber growth continued to decline in Q4 2008 year-on-year.  We expect declining growth throughout 2009, with the growth rate remaining positive, but in single figures ·...
More ...    01 Apr 2009

Mobile revenue growth Dec 2008 quarter [2009-040]
·         European mobile revenue growth rose slightly in the quarter, from 0.2% to 0.8%; however, favourable changes in the regulatory environment implied that underlying growth was flat on the prior...
More ...    30 Mar 2009

UK DTV forecasts to 2018 March 2009 update [2009-039]
UK Digital TV (DTV) growth has finally started to slow significantly. By the end of 2008, 86% of TV homes and 91% of the population living in TV homes had DTV reception on one or more sets. Almost the...
More ...    27 Mar 2009

UK Commercial Radio Update [2009-034]
This report updates our ongoing coverage of the UK commercial radio sector, and includes our latest revenue forecasts for the period 2009-2013. In the context of a UK recession that is proving to be d...
More ...    13 Mar 2009

NGA in Spain [2009-029]
This research on next generation access in Spain continues our series of reports on NGA in the Continent. In relation to incumbents in other European markets, Telefónica’s NGA has one of the more aggr...
More ...    04 Mar 2009

Channel 4 future funding challenge [2009-015]
The essential conclusion of Ofcom’s Second Public Service Broadcasting Review is that the present commercial PSB model is unsustainable in the digital age. The Ofcom solution of fixing on Channel 4 as...
More ...    06 Feb 2009

NGA in Sweden [2008-013]
This presentation on Next Generation Access in Sweden is the fourth of our reports on NGA in the Continent, after France, The Netherlands and Germany.  Announced in March 2008, incumbent TeliaSonera p...
More ...    04 Feb 2009


Executive Summaries

Executive Summaries are made available for download six months after publication

OFT recommendations and CRR - little comfort for ITV [2009-063e]
·         The OFT has delivered its verdict on ITV’s request for a review and modification of the CRR remedy that the Competition Commission imposed as a condition of the Carlton/Granada merger in 200...
More ...    29 May 2009

Setanta: sink, float or swim? [2009-062e]
·         Against current annual losses in the order of £100 million, Setanta has the whole of June in which to attract the necessary investment that will allow it to continue. The alternative is clos...
More ...    29 May 2009

Will consumers pay for online news? [2009-061e]
·         Newspaper publishers are about to enter a series of ‘online payment’ trials to help bolster disappointing online advertising performance that alone will be unable to support full scale newsr...
More ...    27 May 2009

Cable & Wireless full year results to March 2009: strong cost control [2009-060e]
·         The UK and international businesses (now ‘Worldwide’ and ‘CWI’) are both continuing to perform well, despite weak revenue growth, thanks to strong cost control. Worldwide is now generating c...
More ...    22 May 2009

Vodafone 2008/09 full year results: economy and competition start to hurt [2009-059e]
·         Vodafone’s European revenue growth dipped sharply in the March 2009 quarter to -3.3% from -1.4% in the previous quarter, due to a combination of recessionary impact and continuing underperfo...
More ...    21 May 2009

BT FY 2008-09 Q4 results: clearing the decks [2009-058e]
·         BT’s Q4 results contained a bombshell £1.3 billion write-down at Global Services to correct previous under-reporting of costs on two contracts, believed to be with the NHS and Reuters. Under...
More ...    18 May 2009

ITV Q1 2009 trading statement: hard times [2009-057e]
·         ITV plc outperformance in a TV advertising market that is expected to fall by 17% in H1 2009 (ITV Family down 16%) may simply reflect frontloading of budgets, with audience trends suggesting...
More ...    15 May 2009

Gloomy trading updates on local newspapers [2009-056e]
·         Gloomy trading updates from both Johnston Press and Trinity Mirror, and news that Johnston has abandoned its sale of Irish titles, have choked the optimism that swelled both publishers’ valu...
More ...    15 May 2009

Carphone Warehouse acquisition of Tiscali UK: The Italian Job [2009-55e]
·         Carphone Warehouse’s acquisition of Tiscali UK makes TalkTalk Group the second largest UK ISP and the largest in terms of residential broadband subscribers, just as market growth begins to s...
More ...    11 May 2009

Channel Four 2008 annual report: bridging the funding gap [2009-54e]
·         Channel 4, broke even in 2008 despite a 5% fall in total TV NAR (net advertising revenues), through a combination of outperforming the market and £25 million in programme budget cuts. Its an...
More ...    08 May 2009

Virgin Media Q1 2009 results: awaiting impact of price changes [2009-053e]
·         VMed’s Q1 results were again mixed, with declining group revenue and OCF margin but improving performance at Virgin Mobile and continuing strength in TV ·         The core cable business is...
More ...    06 May 2009

Sky FY 2009 Q3 results: recession-resistant [2009-052e]
·         Another strong quarter of pay-TV subscriber growth, marked by record Sky+ HD sales, indicated continued resistance to recessionary pressures, supported by flat costs other than those associa...
More ...    01 May 2009

Q1 2009 GDP and forecasts for 2009 and 2010 [2009-051e]
·         As the UK recession deepens, economic factors are now dominant in the revenue growth of ad-supported media industries, as well as mobile and, to a lesser extent, fixed line telecoms industri...
More ...    29 Apr 2009

Google UK Q1 results: feeling the squeeze [2009-050e]
·         Google UK delivered solid performance in Q1, with gross revenues up about 8% YoY to £440 million; however, the huge growth of previous years has ended, due to a combination of recession and...
More ...    27 Apr 2009

Carphone Warehouse March quarter trading update and analyst day [2009-049e]
·         In fixed line, net broadband additions for the quarter were strong at TalkTalk given a tough market, but remained firmly negative at AOL UK ·         We are sceptical of new guidance for f...
More ...    24 Apr 2009

Digital Britain summit: talk is cheap [2009-048e]
·         Friday’s Digital Britain summit generated more heat than light but nonetheless provided a useful forum for the articulation of the views of government and some other key players ·         T...
More ...    21 Apr 2009

UK pay-TV in 2009: recession and competition concerns [2009-047e]
·         Leading pay-TV operators Sky and Virgin Media (VMed) have shown little sign of recessionary damage in 2008 and the outlook for Q1 2009 remains positive. Difficulties are apparent at compleme...
More ...    09 Apr 2009

Online classifieds: signs of recession [2009-046e]
·         Confirmation of robust UK online classified growth in 2008 from IAB/PwC should not be interpreted as ‘business as usual’, with signs of severe turbulence emerging in the final months of the...
More ...    09 Apr 2009

Iliad’s 2008 results and prospects [2009-044e]
·         Iliad, now France’s number two broadband provider, will increase total revenues by 10% per year by 2012, mainly by growing its subscriber base (rather than ARPU) in a market however rapidly...
More ...    02 Apr 2009

Recession hits UK internet advertising [2009-043e]
·         IAB/PwC released figures for 2008 showing that annual spending on internet advertising rose 19.1% to £3.35 billion, accounting for close to 20% of total UK advertising, far higher than in an...
More ...    01 Apr 2009

H3G 2008 results: Italy drags the group down [2009-041e]
·         H3G group’s H2 2008 results showed a 5% decline in revenue on a constant currency basis and a return to strongly negative underlying EBITDA, with a margin of -17% in H2 2008 and -8% for the...
More ...    31 Mar 2009

Copyright owners and ad-supported digital content models: more trouble brewing [2009-038e]
·         Highlighting the challenges of the ad-supported digital music model, SpiralFrog, the first licensed service to launch in the US, collapsed recently in a sea of red ink and failed promises ·...
More ...    26 Mar 2009

UK behavioural targeting: Google raises the ante [2009-037e]
·         Google’s announcement that it will offer ‘interest-based’ advertising to key partners on YouTube and its AdSense publisher network from next month, with a wider rollout later this year, rais...
More ...    24 Mar 2009

Revised offers at Virgin Media: light before the dawn? [2009-036e]
·         We expect VMed to use the upgrading of its 2 Mbit/s broadband base to 10 Mbit/s as the basis for a de facto price increase ·         The resulting increase in revenue could be substantial,...
More ...    17 Mar 2009

Further pain at Johnston Press [2009-035e]
·         Johnston Press results for 2008 (calendar year) all too eloquently illustrate accelerating local media advertising decline, with property advertising down 10% in Q1 and 55% in Q4 ·...
More ...    13 Mar 2009

The Digital Dividend: made for mobile [2009-033e]
·         Ofcom has reallocated its Digital Dividend spectrum, allowing the UK to fit in with plans for harmonised usage of the spectrum across Europe, resulting in most of the spectrum being made ‘mo...
More ...    12 Mar 2009

Canal+ FY 2008 results [2009-032e]
·         Vivendi’s Canal+ Group overshot its 2008 EBITA target, despite sluggish subscription growth, delivering to shareholders some of the promised post-merger gains from “synergies” with TPS ·...
More ...    11 Mar 2009

ITV NAR crunch point: ITV FY 2008 results [2009-031e]
·         ITV has switched from a turnaround to a survival strategy focused on preserving its core broadcast and content production business. The switch comes against a backdrop of plunging total TV N...
More ...    06 Mar 2009

Ofcom's statement on Next Generation Access: green light, red ink? [2009-30e]
·         Ofcom’s statement on Next Generation Access (NGA) gives BT the maximum possible incentive to invest by allowing a high degree of pricing freedom and some short cuts to reduce implementation...
More ...    06 Mar 2009

Virgin Media Q4 2008 results: one step forward, one step back [2009-028e]
·         VMed’s Q4 results were mixed, with consumer cable revenue remaining stable but cable net adds dropping significantly and opex performance hit by rising energy costs ·         Group OCF was...
More ...    02 Mar 2009

Canvas offers future path for 'Free TV' [2009-027e]
·         Project Canvas is the BBC/ITV/BT backed proposal for next generation Freeview and Freesat services that embraces IPTV reception, new EPG, home storage and HDTV applications ·         Settin...
More ...    27 Feb 2009

On-demand music streaming from Spotify [2009-026e]
·         Spotify, the slick on-demand music streaming service licensed by the majors, is being touted as the answer to piracy – streaming is now more popular than fee-based downloading or filesharing...
More ...    26 Feb 2009

Local media and the OFT review of the merger regime [2009-025e]
·         The Office of Fair Trading (OFT) has confirmed it is to follow up on Lord Carter's interim Digital Britain report by launching a full consultation on the local and regional media ownership r...
More ...    23 Feb 2009

More red than black and white [2009-024e]
·         Recent ABC declines in consumer magazines are not indicative of the accelerated declines experienced in the past 12 weeks ·         All print media is engulfed in a ‘perfect storm’ of falli...
More ...    20 Feb 2009

UK spectrum withdrawal 2: Ofcom still wants it back [2009-023e]
·         Ofcom has come up with a new 900MHz spectrum refarming/redistribution proposal, in which only 5MHz of spectrum is taken from Vodafone and O2, as opposed to the 15MHz it previously proposed...
More ...    17 Feb 2009

BT FY 2008-09 Q3 results: another mighty wave is looming [2009-022e]
·         As announced in the January trading update, BT’s Q3 results were hit by poor cost control at Global Services and the identification of some ‘toxic’ contracts. Performance elsewhere continued...
More ...    17 Feb 2009

Iliad FY 2008 headline KPIs and 4th 3G licence bid [2009-021e]
·         In Q4 2008 Iliad added 100,000 subscribers in a slowing French broadband market ·         A restructured 4th 3G licence call for tender is now expected in March, with a cost of €206 million...
More ...    13 Feb 2009

European mobile market consolidation [2009-020e]
·         The planned merger of Vodafone and H3G in Australia has raised the question of what consolidation could occur in Europe, although a direct analogy is not appropriate because Vodafone is much...
More ...    11 Feb 2009

BT Retail residential telephony price changes: rebalancing act [2009-019e]
·         BT Retail is putting through another round of residential price changes, trading further aggressive cuts in call plans in return for 12 month contracts, increases in line rental and some vol...
More ...    11 Feb 2009

KPN fixed line recovery [2009-018e]
·         KPN noticeably improved the performance of its domestic fixed line business in its full-year 2008 results, with revenues close to stabilising, and positive EBITDA growth of 1% indicating a t...
More ...    11 Feb 2009

Touchscreen Smartphones: the rise of the iClones? [2009-116e]
·         The iPhone has inspired all the major Smartphone makers to launch touchscreen models, and dramatically improve the usability of their interfaces. The iPhone itself remains the most easily us...
More ...    10 Feb 2009

Sky Five Setanta One [2009-017e]
·         The Premier League has succeeded in obtaining a 4.4% increase in live televised rights payments from £1,706 million to £1,782 million for the next three year contract commencing with the 201...
More ...    10 Feb 2009

Web TV: Kangaroo is dead, long live Marquee [2009-014e]
·         Kangaroo – the proposed BBC Worldwide/ITV/Channel 4 video-on-demand (VOD) service – has been terminated by the Competition Commission (CC) due to fears that it could control the wholesale an...
More ...    05 Feb 2009

Vodafone Q3 Interim Management Statement: slowing less quickly [2009-012e]
·         Vodafone’s December quarter KPIs showed only slightly worse underlying European revenue growth compared to last quarter, with another plummet in growth in Spain moderated by improving figure...
More ...    04 Feb 2009

UK telecoms and the Digital Britain Interim Report: the art of the possible [2009-011e]
·         On next generation access, the interim Digital Britain report has little new to say, but leaves the door open to using public money to help implement it. We think the chance of this happenin...
More ...    02 Feb 2009

Pay-TV Sky still blue: fiscal Q2 2009 results [2009-010e]
·         Strong Q2 results announced on Wednesday 28th January 2009 provided no evidence of negative impact so far due to the current recession ·         Sky+ HD looks set to provide a major growth...
More ...    30 Jan 2009

Enders Analysis and the Digital Britain interim report
Today, the Government published its Digital Britain: interim report which addresses the UK’s state of readiness to fully exploit the dramatic shift to digital technology, and which is available for...
More ...    29 Jan 2009

UK mobile termination rates: down but not out [2009-009e]
·         The CC determination on mobile termination rates (MTRs), if implemented, would result in a cumulative 4% reduction in UK mobile industry revenue and EBITDA by the 2010/11 financial year, but...
More ...    29 Jan 2009

DMGT offloads Evening Standard for £15 million [2008-008e]
·         DMGT has sold a 75% stake in its London title, the Evening Standard, to Russian investor Alexander Lebedev for £15 million ·         The deal helps DMGT reduce its losses at the title, tho...
More ...    27 Jan 2009

Many rivers to cross - fixing the broken PSB model [2009-007e]
·         The final Ofcom statement on the future of PSB advocates fixing the commercial PSB crisis by designating Channel 4 as the core alternative provider of public service programming to the BBC,...
More ...    23 Jan 2009

BT unscheduled trading update: further drastic revisions at Global Services, with more to come [2009-006e]
·         BT’s latest trading update involved a massive £340 million one-off charge to reflect a more cautious view of contract profitability and realign reported performance with cash flow; in additi...
More ...    23 Jan 2009

Impact of the credit crisis on media industries [2009-005e]
·         Our current forecast of UK advertising revenues in 2009 is a decline of 12.2% across all the display media, led by a steep fall of 19% in newspapers, a result of the double whammy of the mig...
More ...    19 Jan 2009

Carphone Warehouse trading update: weathering the storm [2009-004e]
·         Carphone Warehouse’s distribution business felt the recessionary chill for the first time in the December quarter, but its like-for-like organic growth of -1% was still far better than other...
More ...    16 Jan 2009

Apple drops DRM [2009-003e]
·         Major record labels will allow iTunes to sell all its music stripped of digital rights management (DRM), removing a barrier to digital music buying, while iTunes will introduce in April the...
More ...    15 Jan 2009

ITV and Virgin Media deal on TV VOD [2009-002e]
·       ITV has agreed to provide 7 day catch-up and archive content to Virgin Media’s TV customers. By closing the last major gap in its VOD offering, Virgin Media can better exploit VOD as a differe...
More ...    09 Jan 2009

Orange and Canal+ make peace [2009-001e]
·         Ending a simmering commercial dispute, Vivendi’s Canal+ has agreed to distribute its packages to France Télécom’s Orange TV satellite customers, allowing Orange to relaunch its DTH platform...
More ...    09 Jan 2009

From Kangaroo to Marquis in a hop? [2008-120e]
·         Kangaroo, the BBC/ITV/Channel 4 VOD project, looks unlikely to see the light of day any time soon, based on the Competition Commission’s (CC) provisional findings announced on 3rd December...
More ...    23 Dec 2008

NGA in Germany [2008-121]
This is the third, after France and The Netherlands, of our reports on NGA in the continent. Deutsche Telekom’s NGA extends fibre to the cabinet, with VDSL for the last mile, to cover 25% of the count...
More ...    23 Dec 2008

UK Online Handset Sales Monitor [2008-119]
In the attached report, we present an analysis of UK handset sales over the online channel, using data sourced from Mobileshop.com, an online comparison handset sales site. Mobileshop.com presents off...
More ...    19 Dec 2008

NGA in The Netherlands [2008-118]
This report on next generation access in The Netherlands is the second, after France, of our reports on NGA in the continent. KPN’s NGA was initially focused on FTTC+VDSL deployment, to cover 15% of t...
More ...    18 Dec 2008

Virgin Media 50 Mbit/s broadband launch: product differentiation - at a price [2008-117e]
On Monday 15th December, Virgin Media (VMed) announced the launch of its 50 Mbit/s ‘XXL’ broadband service, implemented over the existing cable network using the DOCSIS3 standard. This note looks at t...
More ...    16 Dec 2008

NGA in France [2008-116]
This report on France kicks off a series of reports on Next Generation Access on the continent, also covering Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden, and concluding with a summary. Each cou...
More ...    10 Dec 2008

UK broadband market Q3 2008 [2008-115]
·         UK broadband net additions in Q3 2008 fell sequentially, the first time this has happened in a third quarter. Q3 net adds almost halved year-on-year to 320,000 ·         BSkyB and O2 were r...
More ...    09 Dec 2008

UK TV Advertising and PSB survival [2008-114]
The consultation period for the second phase of Ofcom’s Second Public Service Broadcasting Review closes on 4th December 2008. The central issue before Ofcom is that the current PSB model is broken, l...
More ...    27 Nov 2008

Carphone Warehouse interim results: calm before the storm? [2008-112e]
·         Carphone Warehouse’s distribution side was very strong in revenue terms in the September quarter, with an underlying (ex-currency) growth of 11% ·         The company is right to be cautiou...
More ...    26 Nov 2008

Mobile revenue growth: September 2008 quarter and outlook [2008-113]
·         European mobile revenue growth has declined again, from 1.4% to 0.5%, despite favourable movements in regulatory factors, which imply an underlying drop in growth of about 2 percentage point...
More ...    26 Nov 2008

UK TV and display advertising outlook [2008-111]
The enclosed presentation updates our latest UK TV and display media advertising figures to reflect the dramatic downgrading of the state of the UK economy in recent weeks and days, ending talk of a s...
More ...    20 Nov 2008

French Pay-TV: Back to growth? [2008-110]
This presentation on the French pay-TV market covers the principal recent developments on that market and the positioning of suppliers, including Vivendi's Canal+, France Télécom's Orange, Numericable...
More ...    18 Nov 2008

BT FY 2008-09 Q2 results: resilience reduced by cost control issues at Global Services [2008-109e]
·         As announced in the October trading update, BT’s Q2 results were hit by poor cost control at Global Services. Performance elsewhere was reasonable but was shored up at group level by a spike...
More ...    17 Nov 2008

Vodafone 2008/09 H1 results: underperforming competitors [2008-108e]
·         Vodafone’s European organic service revenue growth dropped again in the September quarter, to -1.3%, and we estimate that it continues to underperform its competitors’ growth by two percenta...
More ...    13 Nov 2008

Local Media and BBC Video [2008-107]
This report examines the role of local commercial media in supplying the information needs of the UK’s many communities, in the context of the BBC’s ‘Local Video’ plans to add video to its local onlin...
More ...    13 Nov 2008

Cable & Wireless half year results to September 2008: free at last [2008-106e]
·         The UK business (EAUS) is continuing to improve ahead of guidance as expected and its turnround can now be judged a success. Management has announced an aggressive plan to extract synergy fr...
More ...    12 Nov 2008

Virgin Media Q3 2008 results: significant improvement, but economic environment continuing to present challenges [2008-105e]
·         Virgin Media’s Q3 results represent a significant step in the recovery of the business, with ARPU and consumer cable revenue stable for the first time in 18 months. Group OCF growth was hit...
More ...    07 Nov 2008

Sky Q1 2009 results: riding the economic downturn [2008-104e]
·         Another robust set of subscriber KPIs provides little indication of the economic downturn taking its toll, other than a sharp 1.1% jump in churn over the previous quarter, which could reflec...
More ...    04 Nov 2008

UK Residential Broadband Market: maturity rapidly approaching [2008-103]
This report examines recent developments in the UK residential market for broadband internet access. We consider the outlook over the next five years for total market volume and market shares.
More ...    03 Nov 2008

BT pre-quarterly results trading update: cost control issues at Global Services [2008-102e]
On 31st October BT announced that Q2 EBITDA and EPS will be slightly below expectations as a result of a sharp deterioration in performance at Global Services (GS) and that GS CEO Francois Barrault ha...
More ...    31 Oct 2008

Nokia Comes With Music: one hit wonder? [2008-101e]
·         The Nokia Comes With Music (CWM) service bundles a music-centric handset with an unlimited music downloads service, allowing consumers to easily take advantage of their handsets’ music funct...
More ...    28 Oct 2008

The Digital One radio multiplex: desperately seeking subsidy [2008-100e]
·         Following Channel 4’s decision not to proceed with its plans for digital radio, there is a glut of unused capacity on the existing national digital commercial radio multiplex (owned by Digit...
More ...    22 Oct 2008

Google and copyright news [2008-99e]
·         Google has lost another copyright proceeding in a major European market, this time in Germany (it will appeal), on top of the 2007 judgement in Belgium that found against Google in favour of...
More ...    21 Oct 2008

Carphone Warehouse Q2 trading update: walking briskly against the wind [2008-98e]
·         Distribution connection numbers were strong (+9%), especially on contract (+21%), despite a reduction in store expansion and the consumer slowdown which is affecting other consumer electroni...
More ...    21 Oct 2008

Channel 4 radio: six feet under [2008-97e]
·         Channel 4 has announced the immediate withdrawal of its majority stake in 4 Digital Group, a new venture that was awarded the licence by Ofcom in 2007 to build the UK’s second national comme...
More ...    13 Oct 2008

US mechanical rates outcome – the status quo prevails [2008-96e]
·         The Copyright Royalty Board ruling issued on 2nd October gives the US music industry certainty on the statutory mechanical royalty rates payable to music publishers for 2008-2012 ·...
More ...    13 Oct 2008

PVR+ [2008-95]
Call it the Personal Video Recorder (PVR), the Digital Video Recorder (DVR), the Digital Television Recorder (DTR), or just Armageddon brought to Madison Avenue, this machine excited curiosity and ang...
More ...    10 Oct 2008

UK Classified Advertising [2008-94]
UK classified advertising, which generated £4.8 billion in 2007 (26% of total UK advertising spend), could decline to £4.2 billion in 2008 and to £3.7 billion in 2009. In our view, advertisers are acc...
More ...    09 Oct 2008

Ofcom Second Consultation on pay-TV and the root wholesale issue [2008-93e]
·         Ofcom’s second consultation document in its pay-TV investigation has focused on BSkyB’s wholesaling of designated premium film and sports channels, reviving memories of previous regulatory e...
More ...    02 Oct 2008

The second national digital radio multiplex [2008-92e]
·         The second national digital radio multiplex, awarded by Ofcom in July 2007 to 4 Digital Group, has not yet been built, despite having promised a launch within twelve months ·         Many l...
More ...    02 Oct 2008

NGA in the UK and Ofcom's Second Consultation: edging forward [2008-91e]
·         Ofcom’s second consultation document on Next Generation Access raised few new issues. Ofcom continues to favour passive access and emphasises the importance of joint investment in it ·...
More ...    01 Oct 2008

The Googlephone: nice software, shame about the hardware [2008-90e]
·         The long awaited first Android-driven handset was launched this week, and with the Google logo emblazoned on the back it has been swiftly christened the Googlephone ·         The software s...
More ...    26 Sep 2008

Mobile revenue growth to June 2008 and outlook: economic and regulatory worries [2008-89]
·         European revenue growth fell to 1.4% in the quarter, down 0.8ppts from 2.2% last quarter, driven primarily by Spain where growth fell 4.1ppts. The deterioration was despite an improvement in...
More ...    24 Sep 2008

ITV plc: economic downturn, NAR and cost reduction [2008-88e]
·         We have downgraded our short-term forecasts of TV NAR (net advertising revenue) growth from -5% to -5.75% for 2008 and from -3% to -6% for 2009 in light of the worsening economic conditions...
More ...    23 Sep 2008

UK advertising: online reality check [2008-87e]
·       Deteriorating economic conditions are impacting growth in online advertising, with display and classified especially affected, though search, which accounts for about 60% of spend, remains rel...
More ...    22 Sep 2008

Tiscali UK update – feeling the pinch [2008-86e]
·         Tiscali UK’s H1 results showed falling subscribers, revenue and margins, as the competitiveness of the UK broadband market bites ·         Margins should improve in H2, as marketing costs f...
More ...    19 Sep 2008

UK broadband market Q2 2008 [2008-85]
·         UK broadband market net additions in Q2 2008 were lower than at any point in five years. LLU data for Q3 to date suggests that a second half improvement will not be as substantial as in rece...
More ...    15 Sep 2008

UK Commercial Radio Q2 2008 [2008-84]
·         UK commercial radio revenues fell by 10.2% in Q2 2008 year-on-year to £134.2 million, the sector’s lowest quarter since 2000. In Q3 2008, commercial radio revenues are expected to be down 9%...
More ...    11 Sep 2008

French broadband: down to three players, for how long? [2008-83e]
·         Just three players now account for most French broadband connections: Orange’s DSL market share is closing on 50%, Iliad’s rose to 25% from consolidation with Alice, while SFR’s dropped to 2...
More ...    05 Sep 2008

Clear Channel – designs on global radio? [2008-82]
Encouraged by the way that Google has come to dominate the global market for online search advertising, Clear Channel and its rival CBS Radio are now eyeing the potential to dominate the global market...
More ...    03 Sep 2008

H3G H1 2008 results and datacard economics [2008-81e]
·         H3G Group’s H1 2008 results showed static revenue and EBITDA slipping back into negative territory, neither of which bode well for the company’s target of being EBIT positive next year ·...
More ...    02 Sep 2008

TV and ITV NAR to 2012 [2008-80]
2005 was an all time high for total TV net advertising revenues (NAR), even if ITV1, the leading commercial channel, had peaked the year before. 2008 is now proving particularly nasty for everyone as...
More ...    22 Aug 2008

Finding a buyer for Spain's Digital+ [2008-79e]
·         Prisa, the 98% owner of Sogecable, has put Spain’s leading pay-TV platform Digital+ up for sale in order to make a large reduction in its debts ·         Whilst maintaining a stable EBITDA...
More ...    14 Aug 2008

Virgin Media Q2 2008 results: continuing improvement but not yet firing on all cylinders [2008-78e]
·         VMed’s Q2 results represent a further step in the recovery of the business, with fixed line churn continuing to fall and operating cash flow (OCF) continuing to grow, helped by a dramatic im...
More ...    11 Aug 2008

ITV 2008 interim results: battening down the hatches [2008-77e]
·         ITV interim results for 2008 confirmed expectations of a sharp downturn in H1 profits combined with dire predictions for net advertising revenues in the second half of the year, although ITV...
More ...    08 Aug 2008

Carphone Warehouse Q1 trading update: weathering the storms [2008-76e]
·         Carphone Warehouse had a solid quarter on the distribution side given the current environment, with 6-7% underlying organic retail growth and roughly stable like-for-like figures ·...
More ...    06 Aug 2008

Sky FY 2008 results: sound progress [2008-75e]
·         Another strong quarter of pay-TV and Sky+ growth in the face of a severe retail downturn makes us more confident that Sky will achieve its target of 10 million DTH pay-TV subscribers by the...
More ...    05 Aug 2008

BT FY 2008-09 Q1 results: wholesale hit compounded by weak performance at Global Services [2008-74e]
·         BT’s Q1 results were weak, with declining like-for-like revenue and EBITDA, although cash flow grew strongly thanks to a lull in capex ·         We are increasingly sceptical of the abili...
More ...    04 Aug 2008

Web TV: Project Kangaroo heads to the Competition Commission [2008-73e]
·         Project Kangaroo, the planned joint venture between BBC Worldwide, ITV and C4 to pool archival resources and supply video-on-demand (VOD) to UK retail and wholesale customers, was referred b...
More ...    31 Jul 2008

Ofcom’s review of Openreach’s financial framework: BT one, unbundlers nil? [2008-72]
This report explains Ofcom’s ongoing review of Openreach’s financial framework, why it is important, the myriad factors involved, our view on the likely outcome and the implications for BT and unbundl...
More ...    30 Jul 2008

Vodafone June 2008 KPIs: economic woes... or competitive struggles? [2008-71e]
·         Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth dropped by two full percentage points in the quarter to June 2008; Spain plummeted from +5.1% to -2.5%, but the UK and Italy’s underlying growth also...
More ...    23 Jul 2008

Setanta facing the credit crunch [2008-70e]
·         The TV advertising sector is haemorrhaging in the economic downturn, but troubles could also be brewing in the pay-TV sector. Sky still looks secure, but Setanta appears more exposed in its...
More ...    18 Jul 2008

BT Next Generation Access: a one billion pound toe in the water [2008-69e]
·         BT’s announcement of a project to extend fibre beyond the exchange for some existing homes as well as newly built ones is good PR, a useful regulatory gambit, and offers the prospect of rega...
More ...    16 Jul 2008

Tiscali UK - where now? [2008-68e]
·         The current process for a sale of Tiscali Spa in whole or part appears to be breaking down, just as the prospects for standalone ISPs in the UK are becoming less certain ·         A triple...
More ...    14 Jul 2008

UK broadband market Q1 2008 [2008-67]
·         The decline in broadband market growth has accelerated, with market net additions in Q1 down on Q4 for the first time in three years. Household penetration reached 59% ·         BSkyB cont...
More ...    09 Jul 2008

Cable & Wireless/Thus: a deal worth doing [2008-66e]
·         In our view the potential for synergies from an acquisition of Thus by C&W, though more limited than might be supposed, would still have a significant impact on the combined entity at the EB...
More ...    02 Jul 2008

France Télécom premium TV play [2008-65e]
·         Having acquired national broadcast TV rights for premium content, France Télécom’s Orange TV will launch on satellite on 3rd July and introduce subscription football and film and series serv...
More ...    30 Jun 2008

Competition concerns for the TNS-GfK merger [2008-64e]
·         We expect the TNS-GfK merger proposal to be examined closely by the European Commission, and anticipate competition concerns to be raised in the market for television audience measurement (T...
More ...    30 Jun 2008

DAB radio - nice platform, shame about the take-up [2008-63e]
·         Consumer take-up both of DAB receiver hardware and of listening to digital-only radio stations has been slow, in spite of considerable investment in content and in transmission infrastructur...
More ...    24 Jun 2008

UK DTV forecasts to 2017 June 2008 update [2008-62]
Digital TV growth has consistently exceeded expectations since the launch of Freeview in October 2002, while 2007 saw a record annual increase in digital TV homes reception from 72.0% to 82.3%. These...
More ...    23 Jun 2008

French anti-piracy law clears another hurdle [2008-61e]
·         France’s Council of State gave the green light to the draft law on ‘Creation and the Internet’, to combat internet piracy of content. If it completes the final hurdle of adoption by the Parl...
More ...    20 Jun 2008

Mobile revenue growth: March 2008 quarter and outlook [2008-60]
·         European revenue growth improved by a whole percentage point this quarter, jumping to 2.2% from 1.2% last quarter. Most of this (0.7 percentage points) was due to a reduced regulatory impact...
More ...    19 Jun 2008

UK Commercial Radio Q1 2008 [2008-59]
·         UK commercial radio revenues increased by 6.7% in Q1 2008 year-on-year, resulting in four consecutive quarters of growth for the first time since 2004 ·         Commercial radio’s share of...
More ...    18 Jun 2008

UK advertising: internet to overtake TV this year [2008-58e]
·         We expect UK online advertising to reach £3.56 billion this year overtaking TV ad spend which we estimate will be £3.39 billion, making the internet the UK’s largest single advertising mediu...
More ...    17 Jun 2008

Iliad buys Alice [2008-57e]
·         Iliad is to recover the No. 2 spot on the French broadband market, behind France Télécom’s Orange, after acquiring Alice, ending Telecom Italia’s ill fated five-year French venture ·...
More ...    13 Jun 2008

Apple iPhone 3G: faster... cheaper... slimmer margins [2008-56e]
·         The much anticipated iPhone 3G is due to launch in July; it will include 3G and GPS, but will otherwise be quite similar to the old model, and is still a little off-the-pace in feature terms...
More ...    12 Jun 2008

Orange threat to Canal+ targets [2008-55]
Canal+ is entering a critical phase of growth following the recent merger with its former rival Télévision Par Satellite (TPS). Vivendi has set short term guidance targets for 2010 of 11.5 million sub...
More ...    10 Jun 2008

Virgin Radio – new owner, new name, new beginning [2008-54]
After a protracted offer period, Scottish Media Group has finally sold its national commercial radio business ‘Virgin Radio’ to Bennett, Coleman & Company Limited for £53.2 million cash. The sale does...
More ...    10 Jun 2008

UK mobile user survey [2008-53]
The attached report contains the 2008 edition of our regular review of UK mobile user trends, based on a survey of 1,000 adults. We look at handset ownership, replacement trends, handset manufacturer...
More ...    09 Jun 2008

ITV outperformance in a weakening advertising market [2008-52e]
·         The worsening economic outlook has caused us to lower our forecasts of TV net advertising revenue (NAR) growth in 2008 to -2.5%, although there is still little visibility beyond H1, which is...
More ...    06 Jun 2008

Privatising Radios One and Two: how to kill commercial radio with kindness [2008-51]
The privatisation of the BBC’s two national music radio networks – Radio One and Radio Two – is in the news again and is being proposed by certain commentators as a potential solution to the current p...
More ...    04 Jun 2008

Triple play in France [2008-50]
This presentation reports on the triple play of broadband, full telephony and DSL-delivered IPTV in France, the leading market in Europe for the triple play. Of France’s 16.2 million broadband subscri...
More ...    02 Jun 2008

Vodafone 2007/08 full year results and outlook: solid prospects, but distractions remain [2008-49e]
·         Vodafone’s Q4 revenues were healthy if a little weak, with underlying growth slowing from 2.0% to 1.8%, but the improvement in Germany is very welcome ·         The company guidance for 200...
More ...    30 May 2008

Cable & Wireless full year results to March 2008: International still weak but continuing progress in the UK [2008-48e]
·         International performance continued to be weak apart from Macau, although well within EBITDA guidance. Turnaround in Jamaica remains a significant challenge ·         The UK business (EA&U...
More ...    29 May 2008

Regionals at the cliff edge [2008-47e]
·         Regional publishers are reporting steep downturns in advertising revenues in the early weeks of 2008. If the trend continues throughout 2008, print advertising could drop £250 million (9%) t...
More ...    21 May 2008

BT FY 2007-08 Q4 results: continued pressure on underlying performance [2008-46e]
·         BT’s Q4 results were a welcome improvement on Q3, with better growth in revenue, consistent growth in EBITDA and strong growth in cash flow ·         But revenue growth was helped by curre...
More ...    20 May 2008

Sky Picnic on Ice [2008-45e]
·         Ofcom has linked Sky's plans for a pay service on DTT (Picnic) to its wider investigation into the UK market for pay-TV, announcing on 13th May that it will issue its next statement on bot...
More ...    14 May 2008

Virgin Media Q1 2008 results: turning point in prospect [2008-44e]
·         VMed’s Q1 results represent a further step in the recovery of the core cable business, with markedly lower churn and strong growth in operating cash flow (OCF) ·         But OCF performance...
More ...    13 May 2008

HD now on Freesat [2008-43e]
·         The BBC-ITV Freesat venture, launched on 6th May, is the public service response to Sky’s free satellite service. Once fully up and running in 2009, Freesat aims to match Sky with 200 digita...
More ...    09 May 2008

BT Total Broadband Anywhere: Fusion enhanced, but still nowhere [2008-42e]
·         BT’s new mobile product, BT Total Broadband Anywhere, is sensibly being sold as an optional add-on to its broadband line up, maximising the cross-selling opportunity ·         The product...
More ...    09 May 2008

Sky Q3 FY 2008 results: strong fixed line growth, but at a price [2008-41e]
·         Sky Q3 FY 2008 results confirm the strength of the core pay-TV business, where the marketing strategy is now focused on subscriber quality rather than pure numbers. Sky+ boxes continue to...
More ...    06 May 2008

Vodafone UK data pricing: free for £5 a month [2008-40e]
·         Vodafone UK has announced a tariff refresh that includes ‘free’ mobile browsing with all of its new contract plans ·         However, a careful comparison of the old and new tariffs revea...
More ...    02 May 2008

Recorded Music and Music Publishing [2008-39]
The recorded music market decline continued without pause in 2007, with global sales down an estimated 11% in value. Physical and internet piracy continue to drive the CD sales decline, along with sub...
More ...    28 Apr 2008

Ofcom HD Ready to Go [2008-38]
The Digital Dividend resulting from analogue switch-off and digital switchover (DSO) is shaping up into Ofcom’s spectrum sale of the century. It comes at a time when the TV broadcasting industry is co...
More ...    25 Apr 2008

Carphone Warehouse March quarter trading update and analyst day [2008-37e]
·         Carphone Warehouse had a solid quarter, and its expectation of a currency-aided 9-10% growth rate in 2008/2009 distribution revenue looks achievable, as does guidance of 4-5% growth in fix...
More ...    25 Apr 2008

Tiscali UK: attractive assets, but many bidders? [2008-36e]
·         Tiscali SpA has publicly invited bids for its businesses, the largest of which is the UK’s fourth largest ISP, a key player with 12% broadband market share ·         While there are a l...
More ...    24 Apr 2008

Iliad: consolidation, 3G licence and fibre [2008-35e]
·         Iliad will be challenged to meet its target of a steady EBITDA margin of 36% in 2008 despite further cuts in mobile termination charges due to the continued drift of the subscriber mix to hi...
More ...    18 Apr 2008

BT management changes: exit Ben Verwaayen, enter Ian Livingston [2008-34e]
BT announced on 8th April that Ian Livingston, currently CEO of BT Retail, will replace Ben Verwaayen as group CEO on 1st June. The Managing Director of BT Retail’s Consumer division, Gavin Patterson,...
More ...    10 Apr 2008

H3G H1 2007 results: slow improvements, unreasonable expectations [2008-33e]
·         H3G Group’s growth continued to slow in H2 2007, and it is now growing at just 6%, versus 10% 6 months ago, with falling ARPU combining with static subscriber net additions ·         It has...
More ...    09 Apr 2008

GCap Media: one previous owner, needs serious attention [2008-32]
This report examines the proposed acquisition of GCap Media by Global Radio for £375 million which, if successful, will signal the end of a commercial radio giant that, in its brief three-year existen...
More ...    08 Apr 2008

UK broadband market Q4 2007 [2008-31]
·         Broadband market growth continues to fall and was below 20% for the first time in Q4 2007. Household penetration hit 56%. BSkyB dominated net additions, increasing its market share to 7.8% a...
More ...    04 Apr 2008

Mobile revenue growth: December 2007 quarter and outlook [2008-30]
·         Reported revenue growth among operators in the top 5 European markets continues to be adversely affected by the regulatory ‘triple whammy’ of regulation (termination, roaming and Bersani), w...
More ...    01 Apr 2008

Mobile advertising: progress on a small scale [2008-29e]
·         Mobile advertising has progressed well in recent months in terms of expanding trials, building experience and case study evidence, and selling the medium to advertisers ·         However, t...
More ...    28 Mar 2008

UK Commercial Radio Q4 2007 [2008-28]
·         UK commercial radio revenues increased by 7.1% in Q4 2007 year-on-year, driven by strong growth from national advertisers, while full-year 2007 revenues increased by 2.8% to £598.2 million...
More ...    27 Mar 2008

Can TF1 meet its 2012 Ebitda target? [2008-27e]
·         To encourage investors, TF1 announced continued diversification of group revenues from reliance on the flagship TF1 channel, and an increase in group Ebitda from 16% in 2007 to 20% in ‘4-5 y...
More ...    18 Mar 2008

BT Retail telephony pricing: ringing the changes [2008-26e]
·         BT Retail’s fixed-line telephony packages are now amongst the most attractive in the market following a third price change in two years. Attractive headline prices have been balanced by less...
More ...    11 Mar 2008

ITV FY 2007 results: turnaround in a fog [2008-25e]
·         Disappointing headline figures showing a 35% drop in pre-tax profits largely reflect exceptional and non-core items, in particular the fallout from the phone-in scandals that occurred in 200...
More ...    07 Mar 2008

Web TV: much hoopla, little moola [2008-24e]
·         Early figures from the BBC show promising take-up of iPlayer, its web TV application to deliver BBC TV shows. More than 2 million people watched an average of just over one show per week in...
More ...    04 Mar 2008

Virgin Media Q4 2007 results: cable OCF growing but still fragile [2008-23e]
·         Growth in ARPU is reinforcing the impact of improving cable subscriber growth, but revenue remains in decline, year-on-year ·         The synergy project is reducing costs sufficiently to e...
More ...    03 Mar 2008

France Télécom’s fixed line revenue returns to growth [2008-22e]
·         Following years of decline, France Télécom’s revenue from its fixed line business (‘Home France’) rose €248 million in 2007. Rising retail and wholesale broadband revenue (plus WLR) more tha...
More ...    27 Feb 2008

The internet... on your mobile? [2008-21e]
·         Dramatic growth in datacards and Blackberry users has fuelled excitement that the mobile internet is finally arriving to the mass market, even though these remain largely business devices ·...
More ...    26 Feb 2008

The Setanta Question [2008-20]
Setanta is the subject of takeover speculation and this report considers the opportunity, the challenge, and the risks that a purchase represents. Setanta's ownership of live televised rights to premi...
More ...    25 Feb 2008

Yahoo!: acquisition by Microsoft most probable outcome [2008-19e]
·         Microsoft’s $44.6 billion offer for Yahoo! represents the software giant’s last opportunity to compete with Google in the rapidly growing market for online advertising, which is forecast to...
More ...    15 Feb 2008

Sky ITV Appeal? [2008-18]
This report examines whether Sky has grounds to appeal the decision by the Competition Commission requiring Sky to partly divest its ITV stake. The deadline for Sky's decision on appeal is 25th Februa...
More ...    14 Feb 2008

Yell shortfall shines spotlight on local advertising [2008-17e]
·         Yell announced this week that full year sales growth (to March 2008) in its UK operations would be 2%, sharply down from the previously forecast 3%, due to “toughening market conditions” sin...
More ...    13 Feb 2008

French football rights auction outcome [2008-16e]
·         France’s football rights auction for the four seasons starting in 2008 ended with a second round on 6th February. Canal+ will keep most rights, while France Télécom picks up some live rights...
More ...    13 Feb 2008

BT FY 2007-08 Q3 results: under pressure [2008-15e]
·         Increasing loss of retail call market share and continuing decline in wholesale revenue stunted growth in group revenue, which would have dropped slightly without help from acquisitions ·...
More ...    12 Feb 2008

Sky Q2 2007/8 results: record product sales, but concerns on fixed line costs [2008-14e]
·         Sky's Q2 results show continuing strong growth across all parts of its multi-product business, with bumper product sales, up by almost a third year-on-year ·         Although headline gross...
More ...    08 Feb 2008

Fibre in France [2008-13]
France is the first major European market where a large scale fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) deployment is under way. Numericable and France Télécom, as well as unbundlers Iliad and Neuf Cegetel, are launch...
More ...    06 Feb 2008

Canal+ subscriptions disappoint [2008-12e]
·         Vivendi’s preliminary results for FY 2007 show weak subscription growth by France’s leading pay-TV operator Canal+ despite the existence of special positive factors. Strengthening free-to-ai...
More ...    05 Feb 2008

Vodafone December quarter KPIs: improved performance, and prospects good for 2008 [2008-11e]
·         Vodafone’s European performance was very solid, with underlying growth of 1.9%, up from 1.7% last quarter, with some very encouraging moderation to price cuts in Germany and elsewhere ·...
More ...    01 Feb 2008

Apple Q1 FY2008 results [2008-10e]
·         Powered by strong computer sales at Apple stores and surging European sales (and the weaker dollar), Apple’s dollar revenue for Q1 FY2008 rose 35% year-on-year to $9.6 billion, exceeding gui...
More ...    31 Jan 2008

O2 UK - iPhone tariff price cut [2008-09e]
·         O2 this week announced changes to its contract tariffs; however, these will have limited impact for most of their subscribers, and the reductions to their data pricing only bring them into l...
More ...    30 Jan 2008

France Télécom’s calculated posturing on the football rights auction [2008-08e]
·         In an apparent change of direction, France Télécom said it would consider bidding for all the 12 packages of French televised football rights at the auction to be held tomorrow, 31st January...
More ...    30 Jan 2008

The Future of Digital Radio - is it 'DAB'? [2008-07]
This report considers recent activity concerning the radio sector’s Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB) platform and examines the implications, particularly in view of the recent establishment of a gover...
More ...    28 Jan 2008

Seesaw TV advertising prospects in 2008 [2008-06e]
·         Chill global winds in the financial world have triggered gloomy predictions in the City of around 2% negative nominal UK TV NAR (net advertising revenues) growth in 2008. In general, the TV...
More ...    25 Jan 2008

Valuing Chrysalis music publishing assets [2008-05e]
·         Chrysalis, the music publishing company, is for sale and expressions of interest have been received from EMI Music Publishing, Warner Chappell, SonyATV as well as a small number of private e...
More ...    24 Jan 2008

Carphone Warehouse December quarter: growth increasingly challenging, but downside protected [2008-04e]
·         Distribution growth improved considerably (retail grew 13% versus 8% last quarter), with strong contract sales more than counteracting a relatively weak prepay performance ·         Given t...
More ...    22 Jan 2008

News Corporation takes its second bite at German pay-TV [2008-03e]
·         Unity Media sold its 14.58% stake in German pay TV operator Premiere to News Corporation at the start of 2008, prompting speculation of a full takeover by News Corporation later in the year...
More ...    21 Jan 2008

Will Google buy Yell? [2008-02e]
·         Rumours that Google was acquiring Yell emerged at the end of last week, but we doubt the search giant would be interested in purchasing a traditional media company, particularly not one pred...
More ...    17 Jan 2008

GCap Media - the end of the road [2008-01e]
·     Since its creation in 2005, GCap Media has singularly failed to deliver its shareholders either a return on their investment or a coherent, strategic vision of its future, rendering the company...
More ...    11 Jan 2008

H3G/T-Mobile network sharing: joining at the hip [2007-117e]
·     H3G and T-Mobile have agreed to fully share their 3G networks, with their networks being roughly doubled to a combined 13,000 sites over the next two years ·     The cost savings are significan...
More ...    20 Dec 2007

French football auction: Canal+ won’t pay more for rights [2007-116e]
·     To draw in competitors to Canal+, French football Ligue 1 broadcasting rights are being tendered in 12 lots, offered in three sequential auctions (non-premium Fans matches, Premium, highlights)...
More ...    20 Dec 2007

UK DTV Homes Platform Forecasts: 2003-2017 [2007-118]
Just as digital switchover (DSO) has finally begun, TV broadband convergence is beginning to make its mark in the UK following the launch of hybrid broadcast reception and IPTV services over DSL. In t...
More ...    20 Dec 2007

UK broadband market Q3 2007 [2007-115]
·     At 30th September 2007 there were approximately 15.1 million fixed broadband subscribers in the UK and residential broadband penetration was approximately 54%. BT remains the country’s largest b...
More ...    19 Dec 2007

Emap – can't get used to losing you [2007-114e]
·     Emap’s sale last week of its consumer magazine and radio divisions to H. Bauer, the German privately-held publisher, for £1.14 billion is nothing short of miraculous given declining consumption...
More ...    14 Dec 2007

Iliad and 3G – the black hole beckons [2007-113e]
·     Iliad is getting ever closer to securing the French 4th 3G licence on terms with which it is happy, with progress slow but seemingly inevitable, and a licence award likely in H2 2008 followed by...
More ...    13 Dec 2007

Google, the US 700MHz auction, and futurology [2007-112e]
·         Google has announced that it will be bidding for 700MHz spectrum in the US, after the FCC adopted most of the ‘open access’ provisions for which it lobbied ·         In our view Google is s...
More ...    04 Dec 2007

TF1: unchallenged leadership in an uncertain market [2007-111e]
·         After two quarters that have fallen short of earlier guidance, TF1 Q3 results have at last met more subdued investor expectations of marginal growth in flagship TF1 channel advertising reven...
More ...    30 Nov 2007

Mobile revenue growth: September 2007 quarter and outlook [2007-110]
European mobile revenue growth dropped again to 1.4% from 2.8% last quarter, although the roaming cuts mandated by the EU do approximately explain the drop Vodafone had a poor quarter, with gro...
More ...    28 Nov 2007

Cable & Wireless half year results to September 2007: International weak but encouraging progress in UK [2007-109e]
·         International performance was hit by problems in Jamaica and was weak generally except for Panama and Macau ·         The UK business is continuing to improve ahead of guidance, as we expec...
More ...    15 Nov 2007

Vodafone 2007/08 interim results: guidance up, but performance down [2007-108e]
·         Vodafone’s European revenue growth has dropped again in the latest quarter, both relative to the prior quarter and its competitors, with Spain performing particularly poorly ·         Its i...
More ...    14 Nov 2007

BT FY 2007/2008 Q2 results: reasonable overall EBITDA performance but concerns on 21CN remain [2007-107e]
Overall growth in revenue and EBITDA remained adequate, in spite of a poor quarter at BT Wholesale We remain optimistic that improving performance at Global Services will offset the effects of...
More ...    13 Nov 2007

Virgin Media Q3 2007 results: some better news but sustained improvement in cash flow growth remains distant [2007-106e]
Telecoms subscriber growth has improved sharply but this has been achieved at the expense of ARPU growth; revenue continues to decline Cost savings from the synergy project are at last generating c...
More ...    09 Nov 2007

Waiting for Googlephone [2007-105e]
Google has announced that, alongside other industry partners, it is to create ‘Android’, a new operating system for mobile phones which is designed to facilitate the design and use of 3rd party ap...
More ...    09 Nov 2007

Sky FY 2008 Q1 results: strong underlying performance [2007-104e]
·         The pay-TV business is performing well, helped by the ‘halo’ effect from broadband; we view the unexpectedly sharp drop in operating profit as a temporary result of record quarterly take-up...
More ...    06 Nov 2007

H3G’s Skypephone: cheap minutes, but cheaper handset [2007-103e]
H3G has launched the ‘Skypephone’, a Skype-branded phone with a free Skype VoIP service fully integrated into the handset While VoIP is often portrayed as being low cost, the minutes are actually c...
More ...    31 Oct 2007

Apple Q4 FY2007 results: can the iPod shine over Apple’s Christmas? [2007-101e]
School’s back and strong computer sales drove Apple’s Q4 FY2007 revenue to $6.22 billion, up 28.5% year-on-year Computer sales growth is being helped by Apple’s expanding retail presence at home an...
More ...    30 Oct 2007

ITV NAR forecasts, 2007-2012 [2007-102]
ITV plc set itself the annual target of 3-5% revenue growth up to 2010, then 5% to 2012, in its strategy presentation on September 12th 2007. Within the overall business growth target, ITV set itself...
More ...    30 Oct 2007

Mobile revenue growth: June 2007 quarter and outlook [2007-100]
Aggregate mobile service revenue growth in the June quarter was 2.7%, down almost 1%, although this is mostly explicable by regulated price cuts Service revenue growth has however been slowly decl...
More ...    24 Oct 2007

Digital Radio Switchover: somewhere over the rainbow? [2007-99]
For the radio industry, the transition from an analogue broadcast system to a digital one is not going particularly smoothly. Data from the latest RAJAR audience survey, the first to track platform us...
More ...    19 Oct 2007

UK Residential Broadband Market: the guests have arrived, but is the party almost over? [2007-98]
This report examines recent developments in the UK residential market for broadband internet access. We consider the outlook over the next five years for total market volume and market shares.
More ...    18 Oct 2007

BT and FON [2007-97e]
BT is now offering its broadband customers the option of joining the FON network, allowing them to use the FON worldwide network of Wi-Fi hotspots FON hotspots are formed by allowing access to priv...
More ...    15 Oct 2007

Carphone Warehouse trading update [2007-96e]
The distribution side was slightly weak again, but the prospects for the Christmas quarter are much better, with the iPhone exclusivity a big help even if its sales prove to be weak It is difficult...
More ...    11 Oct 2007

No Picnic for Sky? [2007-95e]
On 4th October Ofcom issued its consultation document on Sky’s proposals to provide a broader and more comprehensive range of programming by replacing its three free-to-air channels on Freeview with...
More ...    11 Oct 2007

O2 Broadband: worth the wait? [2007-94e]
O2’s new broadband offer is sensibly pitched as high quality at a reasonable price, but its reported target of 1 million users by 2010 looks ambitious We forecast somewhat less than half of this (4...
More ...    09 Oct 2007

Competition Commission view about the Sky stake in ITV [2007-93e]
BSkyB’s 17.9% shareholding in ITV is likely to lead to a substantial lessening of competition in the all-TV market, according to the provisional findings of the Competition Commission (CC) investiga...
More ...    03 Oct 2007

Next Generation Access in the UK: could Sky and Virgin Media be the real losers? [2007-92e]
Ofcom’s consultation document on Next Generation Access indicates a desire to avoid regulatory impediments to investment, not to force BT to act The desire to encourage BT to implement an NGA may w...
More ...    02 Oct 2007

UK broadband market Q2 2007 [2007-91]
At 30th June 2007 there were approximately 14.5 million fixed broadband subscribers in the UK and residential broadband penetration was approximately 52% BSkyB, BT and Carphone Warehouse all had u...
More ...    01 Oct 2007

Blyk: easy money? [2007-90e]
A new MVNO, Blyk, launched in the UK this week offering limited free texts and voice minutes in exchange for receiving advertising While the offer is attractive for many prepay users looking to sav...
More ...    28 Sep 2007

UK spectrum withdrawal: Ofcom wants it back [2007-89e]
Ofcom is proposing taking back and re-auctioning over 30% of Vodafone and O2’s 2G spectrum as part of more general plans for ‘refarming’ 2G spectrum to allow its use for 3G services This move would...
More ...    27 Sep 2007

UK Commercial Radio Consolidation [2007-88]
Further consolidation could lie ahead for the UK commercial radio sector. EMAP is expected to offer its radio assets for sale and Scottish Media Group plans to divest Virgin Radio. The battleground is...
More ...    20 Sep 2007

iPhone in the UK: over here, overhyped and overpriced [2007-87e]
The Apple iPhone will finally be available in the UK on 9th November, sold exclusively through Apple, O2 and Carphone Warehouse, and costing a hefty £269 when bought with a minimum £35 a month 18 mo...
More ...    19 Sep 2007

Emap Sale and Consumer Magazine Trends [2007-86]
Emap’s decision in July 2007 to sell off the entire group – consumer magazines, radio and business-to-business (B2B) – as a whole or in parts, provides the context for our examination of the state of...
More ...    14 Sep 2007

Apple’s iPods: reaching maturity? [2007-85e]
Apple revealed an updated iPod range to stimulate demand in the run up to the all important Christmas quarter, when iPod revenues typically account for 50% of Apple’s totals Key to the new range is...
More ...    11 Sep 2007

Neuf Cegetel [2007-84]
This report presents our analysis of Neuf Cegetel alongside that of close rival Iliad (which trades under the Free brand). Neuf and Iliad are France’s two leading unbundlers, are both quoted on the Eu...
More ...    11 Sep 2007

'The Broadband Warehouse?' [2007-83e]
Carphone Warehouse is seeking to position itself as an impartial guide to the broadband products from 6 different brands, although it is not selling the product sets of BT, Sky or Tiscali While the...
More ...    07 Sep 2007

The CRR dividend - what dividend? [2007-82e]
The Office of Fair Trading (OFT) has confirmed receipt of a formal request from ITV plc for a review of the Contract Rights Renewal (CRR) remedy and will announce its decision whether to proceed bef...
More ...    05 Sep 2007

Apple TV in the UK [2007-81e]
• Apple has now launched downloads of 28 US TV series in the UK, hoping to drive demand for portable video watching on iPod or for home viewing via Apple TV • In the US, where Apple has made TV shows...
More ...    29 Aug 2007

H3G HI 2007 results - Slow growth [2007-80e]
• H3G’s revenue growth has slowed significantly, with H1 revenue flat on the previous half, driven by steady churn and a reduced investment in customer acquisition • The Group was EBITDA positive on a...
More ...    24 Aug 2007

C4 and Digital Diversification [2007-79]
Channel 4's digital diversification strategy is a topic we first considered in 2002. At that time, we urged Channel 4 to husband its resources to meet its public service remit and maintain audiences o...
More ...    15 Aug 2007

Disposal headaches at Trinity [2007-78e]
Trinity Mirror’s 2007 interim results announcement produced the shock news of an expected £150 million shortfall in its disposals of two regional newspaper divisions and its sports addition TM is n...
More ...    10 Aug 2007

Virgin Media Q2 2007 results: cash flow down; outlook for top line growth remains dubious [2007-77e]
The loss of Sky basic channels, strong competition and a maturing broadband market have combined to weaken Virgin Media’s top line results sufficiently to cause cash flow to decline The basic pay T...
More ...    09 Aug 2007

Virgin Mobile price increases [2007-76e]
Virgin Media has recently upped its mobile prices both within the ‘quad-play’ and on the Virgin Mobile standard prepay product We believe that the dramatic reduction in value of the quad-play offer...
More ...    03 Aug 2007

BT FY 2007/08 Q1 results: more clarity required on 21CN [2007-75e]
Growth in revenue and EBITDA was adequate but a nasty surge in capex hit cash flow Progress at Global Services should still offset the effects of competition and a maturing broadband market until 2...
More ...    02 Aug 2007

Sogecable's diverging free and pay-TV results [2007-74e]
Rising audiences for Cuatro in a booming TV advertising market have unexpectedly lifted Sogecable earnings in H1 2007, encouraging confidence that Cuatro will achieve breakeven in 2008, if not in 20...
More ...    02 Aug 2007

Apple Q3 2006-07 results [2007-73e]
Apple reported strong revenue growth for Q3 2006/07, up 23.8% year on year to $5.41 billion, powered mainly by strong computer sales iPod revenue returned to growth on higher unit sales, but has no...
More ...    01 Aug 2007

Fastweb-Swisscom: Towards a Strategic Review [2007-72]
Swisscom's recent acquisition of 82% of Fastweb, among the largest altnets in Europe, provides the context for a much-needed strategic review. Fastweb is the principal competitor to Telecom Italia in...
More ...    01 Aug 2007

Carphone Warehouse: fixed line momentum regained, but distribution has a shakier start [2007-71e]
The distribution business was slightly weak despite good like-for-like store sales, due to the lower quality ‘off-the-page’ newspaper advertisement business being successfully cut back by the mobile...
More ...    31 Jul 2007

Sky FY 2007 results [2007-70e]
The release of FY 2007 results on 27th July 2007 confirmed the strong performance of Sky and the success of its multi-product and service strategy over the past year, as reported in its trading upda...
More ...    30 Jul 2007

BBC iPlayer: forever niche? [2007-69]
On 27th July the BBC will open access to the iPlayer to UK internet users, en route to a hard launch later this summer. This PC-based application allows the user to download BBC TV content after broad...
More ...    26 Jul 2007

Mobile TV: Brussels gets bossy [2007-68e]
The European Commission has backed DVB-H as the common standard for mobile TV in an attempt to boost investment and rollout of services However, with the key issues of limited spectrum availabilit...
More ...    25 Jul 2007

Royalty regime for online music services in the UK [2007-67e]
The UK recorded music industry now has certainty on the royalty regime for online music services until 2009 as a result of the ruling issued last week by the UK Copyright Tribunal, with little impac...
More ...    24 Jul 2007

Trinity sale: round one to DMGT [2007-66e]
Trinity Mirror has sold 39 of the more than 130 regional newspapers on the block, and looks set to generate £550-£570 million from its disposals by the end of Q3 2007, just shy of its £600 million t...
More ...    23 Jul 2007

Vodafone June 07 Q1 results [2007-65e]
Vodafone’s European operations revenue growth dropped, but not as much as various regulatory interventions would have warranted, implying a strong operational performance Reported European revenue...
More ...    19 Jul 2007

Recorded Music: the bad news continues [2007-64e]
US music shoppers continue to shun the CD, whilst increasing digital music sales are not filling the gap – we estimate the market’s volume was down 10.3% in H1 2007 year-over-year, in keeping with o...
More ...    18 Jul 2007

Mobile revenue growth: March 2007 quarter and outlook [2007-63]
Mobile service revenue growth in the top five European markets was 3.6%, a decline of 0.5pps from the previous quarter, although this was substantially driven by the Bersani Decree in Italy outlawin...
More ...    13 Jul 2007

BSkyB trading update to 30 June 2007 [2007-62e]
Another record quarter of subscriber growth testifies again to the strengths of Sky’s marketing strategy and its successful entry into the telecommunications arena. The target of 10 million subscrib...
More ...    12 Jul 2007

Free’s TV Perso: another first for Iliad [2007-61e]
True to its reputation for innovation, France’s No. 2 ISP Free has launched TV Perso, a user-generated video-on-demand service, to its 1.5 million TV-over-DSL subscribers. Users will contribute uplo...
More ...    11 Jul 2007

Radio: Last.fm is not the problem [2007-60e]
Audio webcasting services such as Last.fm, bought in May by CBS for $280 million, have built sizable audiences by offering greater choice and personalisation than traditional radio Pure-play intern...
More ...    10 Jul 2007

Apple iPhone: revolutionising the mobile business? [2007-59e]
Apple has at least revolutionised two aspects of the mobile business: getting customers to queue overnight for a handset, and selling ‘contracts-in-a-box’, neither of which are likely to catch on in...
More ...    09 Jul 2007

Channel 4: radio ambitions aim too high [2007-58e]
Ofcom has awarded the UK’s second national commercial digital radio multiplex to Channel 4 Television, having rejected a competing bid from National Grid Wireless Channel 4 will launch ten new digi...
More ...    06 Jul 2007

Sky pay DTT plans on ice [2007-57e]
Ofcom’s decision to hold a consultation on Sky’s pay DTT proposal will prevent its launch before Q1 2008 at the earliest and could be delayed to 2010 if Ofcom’s current investigation of the UK pay T...
More ...    29 Jun 2007

Emap - pick up the pieces [2007-56]
Emap, the consumer and business-to-business (B2B) publisher, appears ripe for a break-up. This report examines the health of the group's principal consumer magazine and radio assets, as well as its B2...
More ...    28 Jun 2007

Classified advertising in the UK [2007-55]
This presentation expands on our report on Classified Advertising in Print and Online [2006-58], by examining the online classified market segments of recruitment, property and automotive, and their l...
More ...    22 Jun 2007

Carphone Warehouse: distribution steady but fixed line telecoms not yet out of the woods [2007-54e]
The distribution business had a strong year, marred by a longer than usual Christmas hangover in the last quarter, but the early signs for the new financial year are promising The fixed line teleco...
More ...    11 Jun 2007

European internet advertising trends [2007-53]
Broadband penetration and Internet usage in continental European countries are catching up with the US and UK, but consumer e-commerce and internet advertising spend still massively lag behind. Online...
More ...    05 Jun 2007

UK broadband and telephony Q1 2007 [2007-52]
50% of UK households now have a broadband line installed, but market growth is dropping. Rolling 12-month net additions were below three million for the first time since Q3 2004 BSkyB took 30.9% o...
More ...    01 Jun 2007

Vodafone 2006/07 results and 2007/08 guidance: unambitious? [2007-51e]
Vodafone achieved its 2006/07 full year targets on revenue and profitability, with solid revenue growth (underlying about 2% in Europe) but dropping margins (by around 2pps in Europe) Its 2007/08 t...
More ...    31 May 2007

EMI: underperforming in difficult times [2007-50e]
Steep drops in US and UK recorded music sales dragged EMI’s group revenue 15.8% lower for FY 2006/07. EMI’s underperformance of the sagging recorded music industry highlights the scale of the challe...
More ...    30 May 2007

Cable & Wireless full year results to March 2007: a start is a start [2007-49e]
The performance of the international business remains solid The UK business is improving, but more slowly than is apparent from the reported figures It is likely to be autumn 2008 before the UK tu...
More ...    30 May 2007

Neuf Cegetel: is being #2 on the DSL market worth it? [2007-48e]
French altnet Neuf Cegetel is buying Club Internet from Deutsche Telekom for an estimated €500 million and will overtake its rival Free as the #2 on the DSL market, still way behind Orange Even tak...
More ...    29 May 2007

Q1 mobile operator results: the story so far... [2007-47e]
Growth in Q1 2007 for the aggregate non-Vodafone European mobile operations was 4.2%, a slight decline from 4.7% last quarter (Vodafone reports its results next week) The main reason for the declin...
More ...    22 May 2007

BT FY 2006-07 Q4 results: going whoosh? [2007-46e]
Revenue growth was weaker but EBITDA growth remained strong and capex fell, sending cash flow growth strongly positive Growth at Global Services looks increasingly capable of offsetting the effects...
More ...    21 May 2007

Trinity Mirror: another false dawn? [2007-45e]
Trinity Mirror’s recent optimism about the market for newspaper advertising “stabilising” is questionable, and we expect 2007 to be another year of decline, although less pronounced than in 2006 TM...
More ...    18 May 2007

Commercial radio: out of tune with London [2007-44e]
The three most listened to radio stations in London all belong to the BBC, for the first time since commercial radio started in 1973 Commercial radio’s share of listening (compared to the BBC) has...
More ...    18 May 2007

Warner Music Group: I will survive! [2007-43e]
Warner Music Group reported a mild revenue decline in Q2 FY 2006/07, despite continued steep declines in CD sales in the US and elsewhere, by outperforming other CD suppliers, gaining from rising do...
More ...    17 May 2007

Mobile data pricing in the UK: down but not out [2007-42e]
The new consumer data tariffs from Vodafone and Orange in the UK continue the trend towards dramatically lower data prices for high end users, although they are cunningly structured to involve more...
More ...    14 May 2007

Virgin Media Q1 2007 results: headwinds increasing [2007-41e]
Virgin Media’s Q1 top line results were again mixed, with a growing number of customers leaving as competition intensifies, despite the rebrand to Virgin. But it could have been worse; most higher-s...
More ...    11 May 2007

Virgin Radio: a pig in a poke [2007-40]
Scottish Media Group’s decision to sell its Virgin Radio business has been prompted by the need to pay down group debt and the management’s decision to refocus on the turnaround of its ITV service. Th...
More ...    09 May 2007

Sky high again [2007-39e]
Strong FY Q3 2007 results across all parts of Sky’s increasingly diversified portfolio testify to the success of its multiple product and service strategy as it makes the transition from a high pric...
More ...    04 May 2007

Back to being Apple computer [2007-38e]
iPod revenue (quarterly, year-on-year) declined for the first time. Even though unit sales were up 24% year-on-year, the average iPod price was down 20%. Apple group revenue growth is increasingly d...
More ...    01 May 2007

DMGT bucks advertising trend and reduces reliance on print [2007-36e]
DMGT’s recent upbeat trading update showed improvements on the hefty declines in advertising of 2005 and 2006. At least part of the lift is thanks to DMGT’s national titles gaining share from other...
More ...    17 Apr 2007

Mobile advertising: overhyped? [2007-35e]
Mobile advertising has recently been talked up by both mobile operators and media companies, with some analysts estimating that it could be worth more than $11 billion by 2011, or over one third of...
More ...    13 Apr 2007

UK Internet Advertising [2007-34]
The internet is the UK’s fastest growing advertising medium, with spend rising 41% to £2.02 billion in 2006, and a further 30% rise expected for 2007. Three drivers underpin this growth: more intense...
More ...    11 Apr 2007

Mobile termination rates [2007-33e]
Ofcom has reintroduced price cuts to the UK mobile call termination rates, cutting 2G call termination rates by between 9% and 19% over four years and introducing termination regulation for 3G calls...
More ...    04 Apr 2007

UK broadband market Q4 2006 [2007-32e]
UK broadband market growth fell to 3.2 million net additions in 2006 from 3.8 million in 2005. With 47% of UK households already on broadband, new entrant unbundlers (BSkyB and Carphone Warehouse) a...
More ...    03 Apr 2007

Canal+ post-merger targets for 2010 [2007-31e]
Canal+ targeted subscription (as opposed to subscriber) growth of 1.3 million by 2010 has a lot of stretch in view of the intense competition from free-to-air (FTA) services and in particular digita...
More ...    28 Mar 2007

H3G 2006 results: still burning [2007-30e]
H3G’s H2 2006 results were a mixed bag, with the UK’s revenue growth strong but Italy’s weak, churn reduced but unit SACs up, and non-SAC operating costs reduced but capex up sharply Net net, overa...
More ...    27 Mar 2007

Recorded Music and Music Publishing [2007-29]
This update on the prospects for the global recorded music market in the period to 2012 reveals the depth of the industry's woes from steep declines in CD sales in most major markets. Rising sales fro...
More ...    23 Mar 2007

Scottish Media Group - the only way is up? [2007-28e]
The boardroom coup at Scottish Media Group instigated by Hanover has revamped management with the aim of executing a turnaround strategy quickly In our view, the opportunities for turnaround of the...
More ...    22 Mar 2007

Sky and Virgin blogs [2007-27e]
The spat between Virgin and Sky over cable carriage of Sky basic channels has generated much blogging, mostly supportive of Virgin, although neither party appears to be gaining from the ‘zero sum ga...
More ...    20 Mar 2007

GMG’s sale of Trader Media Group stake [2007-26e]
The Guardian Media Group (GMG) sale of a minority stake of Trader Media, publisher of AutoTrader, in 2007 is well timed to maximise its price, given the preponderance of downside risks to classified...
More ...    20 Mar 2007

Iliad 2006 FY results [2007-25e]
Iliad’s 2006 results were solid with broadband subscriber growth on target, DSL market share up one point to 19%, ARPU up 7% to €34.5/month and churn (enviably) at just below 1% per month. Over 1 mi...
More ...    19 Mar 2007

Mobile revenue growth: December 2006 quarter [2007-24]
Aggregate mobile service revenue growth in the December quarter was stable at 4.2% although, given an easing of termination rate cuts, the underlying growth actually dropped by 0.5 percentage points...
More ...    16 Mar 2007

Sky's purchase of ITV shares [2007-23]
Using a little understood provision of the merger rules, the government has asked Ofcom to take a look at the Sky stake in ITV, just in case the OFT did not come up with the right answer the first tim...
More ...    09 Mar 2007

Mobile handsets: ever slimmer and fewer Gs [2007-22e]
Mobile handset form factors have continued to multiply, but the general trend is for flagship models to be slimmer, sleeker and more metallic The diminishing size is pushing 3G back out of the sta...
More ...    09 Mar 2007

Sogecable's vanishing goal posts [2007-21e]
With 84,000 net pay-TV additions in 2006, Sogecable resumed subscriber growth, but we expect this pace to decline in 2007 unless Sogecable re-positions on basic and expands distribution from satelli...
More ...    05 Mar 2007

Virgin Media Q4 results: Restructuring story promising, growth story more dubious [2007-20e]
Virgin Media’s Q4 results were again mixed – increasing competition is continuing to have a significant effect on net additions but, as yet, most higher ARPU customers are staying put, permitting mo...
More ...    02 Mar 2007

BBC iPlayer [2007-19e]
Set for launch in May/June, the BBC’s iPlayer is a PC-based application offering live and on-demand access to around 3,500 hours of BBC programmes per week via the internet, using peer-to-peer (P2P)...
More ...    02 Mar 2007

Sprint and the mobile WiMAX bubble [2007-18e]
Mobile WiMAX is still being heavily hyped as the future of mobile broadband, with Sprint in the US, with its $3 billion network rollout, being lauded as the pioneer It is hard, however, to see WiMA...
More ...    01 Mar 2007

Commercial radio: growth ambitions quashed by economic realities [2007-17e]
Commercial radio trade association launches new R.A.D.I.O. plan to achieve 20% revenue growth, increased share of listening and migration to digital platforms by 2011 Radio groups implement furthe...
More ...    01 Mar 2007

Mobile network sharing in the UK: a strategic blunder? [2007-16e]
Vodafone and Orange are planning to share their 3G networks in the UK, and are looking at potentially sharing their 2G networks in due course Sharing rural 3G networks makes sense, with significan...
More ...    22 Feb 2007

Sky versus Virgin (and all comers) [2007-15e]
Hostilities between Sky and Virgin have intensified during the course of cable’s re-launch, Sky’s announcement of its pay-DTT plans, and bilateral negotiations over channel carriage fee payments on...
More ...    19 Feb 2007

BT FY 2006/07 Q3 results: firing on (almost) all cylinders [2007-14e]
Group revenue growth was strong but helped by a one-off price change and LLU supply issues at Openreach EBITDA growth is continuing to accelerate, but cash flow growth remains elusive Risks rema...
More ...    12 Feb 2007

Mobile TV: poor reception to date [2007-13]
This report sets out the technological, regulatory and consumer demand issues relating to the provision of mobile TV services in the UK. In summary, technology is uncertain, spectrum is scarce and dem...
More ...    09 Feb 2007

Yell UK and Classified Directory Advertising Services [2007-12]
Yell UK is the dominant supplier of Classified Advertising Directory Services (CDAS) in the UK. Its principal competitor is BT but, as a natural monopoly, it is regulated, and has just undergone a sec...
More ...    07 Feb 2007

Sky FY 2007 Q2 results [2007-11e]
Strong second quarter subscriber figures, including 432,000 gross additions, the highest in six years, attest to a strong and improving product offer. To reach the core target of 10 million subscrib...
More ...    05 Feb 2007

Vodafone Q3 2006/07 KPIs: steady but unspectacular [2007-10e]
Vodafone’s underlying service revenue growth in its core European markets again improved, to 3.0% from 2.3% in the previous quarter, although most of this improvement was due to the impact from term...
More ...    01 Feb 2007

Apple quarterly results [2007-09e]
iPod volumes hit a record 21.1 million units sold in the key Christmas quarter, but year-over-year quarterly revenue growth declined again to 18% (from 29%) due to lower prices for all iPods and con...
More ...    30 Jan 2007

Trinity Mirror disposals [2007-08e]
Trinity Mirror’s decision to sell certain regional newspaper and sports assets is ill-timed in view of the severe declines in newspaper circulation and advertising revenues across the industry, whic...
More ...    29 Jan 2007

Very High Speed Broadband: A Case For Intervention? [2007-07]
In continental Europe ‘public/private partnerships’ rolling out very high speed broadband (VHSB) access networks to consumers are the latest rage, with local governments pushing their own subsidy init...
More ...    24 Jan 2007

H3G drops roaming charges [2007-06e]
H3G has removed roaming charges for customers roaming onto its own overseas networks. While reducing roaming prices can be partially, or even fully, compensated for by elasticity effects, removing t...
More ...    23 Jan 2007

Carphone Warehouse Q3 trading statement: is no news good news? [2007-05e]
Carphone Warehouse’s core distribution business was firm, showing no signs of being harmed by Vodafone withdrawing its new contract business in the UK Growth will likely slow from 2006's impressive...
More ...    18 Jan 2007

Climate change: M&S goes for Plan A [2007-04e]
Marks & Spencer’s plan to make itself the world’s most 'sustainable' retailer is an extremely ambitious proposal to make the company carbon neutral, reduce its own landfill waste to zero, and change...
More ...    18 Jan 2007

The Apple iPhone – beautiful, but niche [2007-03e]
Apple has introduced its long-awaited iPhone, with sleek looks and a host of innovative touches, to be launched in the US exclusively with Cingular in June and Europe by the end of 2007 While beau...
More ...    12 Jan 2007

BT's IPTV play [2007-02e]
BT has gone further than expected in setting a “medium term” goal of 2-3 million customers for BT Vision, remaining vague on when it will be achieved. Giving away the PVR and a cheap self-install op...
More ...    10 Jan 2007

Audiovisual advertising blues 2007 [2007-01e]
Television advertising revenues fell by nearly 7% and radio advertising by more than 4% in 2006 according to latest market estimates. We expect declines of around 4% for both media in 2007 The fal...
More ...    04 Jan 2007

US digital music sales in 2006 [2006-e73]
US digital music sales continue to perform well, despite press reports to the contrary, with the average weekly volume of tracks sold up 75% in 2006, supported by steady sales of iPods US digital...
More ...    21 Dec 2006

TF1 - new digital TV offensive [2006-e72]
TF1, France’s leading free-to-air (FTA) terrestrial broadcaster, has repositioned its channel assets in order to better exploit rapid growth of digital TV, now taken by 44% of households TF1’s acq...
More ...    20 Dec 2006

Mobile revenue growth - September 2006 quarter [2006-71]
Aggregate mobile service revenue growth remains reasonably strong, at 4% for the latest quarter for the five largest European countries This growth is in spite of some high outbound tariff cuts, a...
More ...    14 Dec 2006

France Télécom takes few risks with naked DSL [2006-e70]
Under regulatory pressure, France Télécom introduced in July 2006 a wholesale ‘naked’ DSL offer, under which broadband alone is supplied to the customer, as the lower frequency portion of the line u...
More ...    12 Dec 2006

Internet and Telephony Market Statistics Q3 2006 [2006-69]
At the end of Q3 2006, the UK had 12.4 million broadband connections and we estimate 45% household broadband penetration. Over the past 12 months, 3.4 million new broadband connections have been sold,...
More ...    06 Dec 2006

H3G’s X-Series and the mobile internet (or lack thereof) [2006-e68]
H3G’s X-Series is not quite as innovative as it was presented to be, given that T-Mobile’s Web ‘n’ Walk is very similar in concept (flat rate data tariffs, 3rd party Internet services) and has been...
More ...    22 Nov 2006

ITV - where next? [2006-e67]
Today ITV officially rejected NTL's bid, currently worth around 120 pence/share with, among others, the consequence that Sir Peter Burt will have to continue to show up for meetings at ITV for the f...
More ...    21 Nov 2006

BT FY 2006-07 Q2 results: further progress but rougher water ahead [2006-e66]
Group revenue growth continues to be positive but vulnerable; EBITDA growth continues apace but cash flow growth has again been hit by 21CN capex BT’s financial year beginning April 2007 looks lik...
More ...    17 Nov 2006

Vodafone H1 2006/07 results: on the mend? [2006-e65]
Vodafone’s revenue growth has improved, with core underlying growth rising both relative to the previous quarter and relative to its competitors Vodafone’s 3G and convergence efforts appear to now...
More ...    16 Nov 2006

NTL-Q3 results [2006-e64]
Although NTL could use ITV programming to improve its competitiveness, it is difficult to see how yet another acquisition could be justified, given the managerial and financial burden that would res...
More ...    15 Nov 2006

ITV1 Viewing Decline: Causes and Prospects [2006-63]
Having experienced an almost straight-line decline in its audience, ITV1’s 20% share of total viewing in 2006 is about half of what it was in 1992. Although the causes of this dramatic decline have va...
More ...    15 Nov 2006

Vodafone UK broadband launch [2006-e62]
Vodafone UK’s new broadband product is not very competitively priced compared to the offers from Carphone Warehouse and Orange, costing £5-10 a month more than the nearest equivalent packages The...
More ...    13 Nov 2006

Changing times for Sky - fiscal Q1 2007 results [2006-e61]
Fiscal Q1 2007 results show unexpectedly strong subscriber gross additions (14% up on Q1 2006) and a promising start to Sky Broadband in its pursuit of at least 3 million subscribers by December 201...
More ...    13 Nov 2006

ITV/NTL - a possible combination transaction [2006-e60]
Under mounting competitive pressure from Sky, NTL needs to reinforce its position in content and has approached ITV about a possible combination A merger would not be a panacea for either company...
More ...    10 Nov 2006

Microsoft’s Zune: credible or incredible competitor to Apple? [2006-e59]
The Zune will compete with the iPod Video – but not the mini, nano or shuffle that have built Apple’s player market share. The Zune’s USP of Wi-Fi capability (to share tracks locally, not download)...
More ...    10 Nov 2006

Classified Advertising in Print and Online [2006-58]
The UK newspaper industry is being engulfed by a 'perfect storm'. Overall advertising has been in a cyclical downturn since mid-2005, and public sector recruitment in particular has been weak, while r...
More ...    09 Nov 2006

Internet Advertising: you’ve been googled! [2006-e57]
Last week Google hit the headlines on the back of forecasts for its UK revenues for 2006 which we expect to reach £920 million, up 90% on 2005, cited as proof of a structural shift away from broadcast...
More ...    07 Nov 2006

Orange UK: struggling to give convergence away for free [2006-e56]
Orange UK’s converged mobile and broadband brands and ‘free’ broadband offer has not proved a big hit with consumers, with Orange reporting just 25,000 DSL net additions for the September quarter, l...
More ...    01 Nov 2006

French broadband market update [2006-e55]
The level of net broadband additions in France declined in Q3 2006 to 539,000 net adds, down 8% on a year-over-year basis, as narrowband migration reaches completion due to exceptional levels of pro...
More ...    30 Oct 2006

UK Residential Broadband Market [2006-54]
This report examines recent developments in the UK residential market for broadband internet access. We consider past trends and the outlook over the next five years for the total market volume, marke...
More ...    20 Oct 2006

Vodafone drops Carphone Warehouse, but who will fall further? [2006-e53]
In a fit of pique over increasing subsidies, Vodafone UK is dropping Carphone Warehouse (CPW) as a distributor, and moving exclusively to Phones4U with lower subsidy levels and volume guarantees, wh...
More ...    16 Oct 2006

IPO of Neuf Cegetel [2006-e52]
Neuf Cegetel will make an initial public offering (IPO) on Euronext Paris on 25th October. Proceeds of about €847 million are expected (if the ‘green shoe’ option is fully exercised and the price is s...
More ...    13 Oct 2006

The Carphone Warehouse's proposed acquisition of the AOL UK access business [2006-e51]
The Carphone Warehouse (CPW)’s £370 million acquisition of AOL UK’s internet access business is set to quadruple the size of CPW’s UK broadband customer base, enabling it to become the third largest p...
More ...    13 Oct 2006

Canal+ Group after the merger [2006-50]
Ten years of fierce and implacable rivalry between Canal+ Group and TPS, the two French pay-TV operators, is expected to end in November 2006, when they close their merger deal and Canal+ France emerg...
More ...    11 Oct 2006

CRR (Cash Withdrawal Machine) [2006-e49]
Total TV advertising expenditure is expected to fall between 4% and 7% in 2006. ITV1 will suffer most, with a projected fall in NAR of around 13-14%, but the rest of the TV industry is also starting t...
More ...    29 Sep 2006

UK termination rate cuts... and increases [2006-e48]
Ofcom has reintroduced price reductions for UK mobile call termination charges, cutting 2G termination rates in real terms by between 6% and 16% over four years and introducing regulation for 3G call...
More ...    28 Sep 2006

Iliad - Destiny [2006-47]
Iliad is among the very few European altnets that have made unbundling a profitable business, despite France's highly contested market for broadband. This report examines Iliad's current positioning i...
More ...    25 Sep 2006

Vodafone chooses wholesale broadband from BT [2006-e46]
Vodafone is taking the first step in implementing its convergence strategy in the UK by buying broadband from BT Wholesale; while we believe the strategy is misguided, Vodafone’s approach is at least...
More ...    15 Sep 2006

Pipex acquisition of Bulldog and Toucan, wholesale deal with Cable & Wireless [2006-e45]
Pipex’s acquisition of the Bulldog and Toucan customer bases establishes it as a significant player in the UK residential telecoms market Pipex’s strategy is sophisticated, but its success depends to...
More ...    08 Sep 2006

European Mobile Revenue Growth – June 2006 quarter [2006-44]
In the attached slides, we examine the service revenue growth trends in the top five European mobile markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain) over the last six quarters (ending in the June 2006...
More ...    06 Sep 2006

H3G results: the lengthening path to profitability [2006-e43]
H3G has extended its deadline for hitting EBITDA breakeven, with this now around 12 months later than its previous forecast, we believe due to management failing to understand the extent of its churn...
More ...    04 Sep 2006

UTV and SMG merger could revive commercial radio sector [2006-e42]
The prospect of a merger between Scottish Media Group (SMG) and UTV (formerly Ulster Television) provides exactly the positive news the commercial radio sector needs at this time. The merger would bri...
More ...    30 Aug 2006

NTL Q2 results [2006-e41]
NTL’s Q2 results were again adversely affected by merger-related costs There is little evidence of a revenue meltdown On-schedule delivery of the programme to extract ‘synergy’ from the NTL/Telewest m...
More ...    22 Aug 2006

UK DTV Platform Growth [2006-40]
The UK continues to be the largest and fastest growing national digital TV (DTV) market in Europe. We now expect 75% of UK TV homes to be equipped with digital reception by the end of 2006, rising to...
More ...    16 Aug 2006

Poor ratings exacerbate commercial radio woes [2006-e39]
The latest RAJAR radio data (Q2 2006) delivered further bad news to the commercial radio sector, whose audience share has fallen year-on-year in all but four quarters of the last eight years to the be...
More ...    14 Aug 2006

BT FY 2006-07 Q1 results: revenue growth looking more vulnerable but overall performance continuing to improve [2006-e38]
Group revenue growth remains positive, but intensifying competition in residential services and the absence of further big wins in corporate contracts mean that it looks more vulnerable than it has fo...
More ...    28 Jul 2006

UK Mobile Consumer Trends [2006-37]
In the attached report we are publishing the 2006 edition of our regular review of UK mobile user trends, based on a survey of 1,000 adults. We look at handset ownership, replacement trends, handset m...
More ...    28 Jul 2006

Vodafone June quarter KPIs: excuses, excuses… [2006-e36]
Vodafone blamed a harsh competitive environment and the timing of Easter for its low revenue growth in core markets reported this week. Its growth did at least not decline again, although we expect th...
More ...    26 Jul 2006

Sky Broadband: All power to the portal [2006-35]
True to pre-launch speculation, BSkyB has entered broadband with a price-cutting bang that will have sent tremors round the rest of the industry. BSkyB plans to unbundle 1,200 exchanges by the end of...
More ...    21 Jul 2006

Sogecable and the Spanish game of football bluff [2006-e34]
Spain’s top football club FC Barcelona (Barça) has threatened to withdraw its broadcast licence from Sogecable unless it matches an offer from Mediapro that is almost double the current annual fee for...
More ...    17 Jul 2006

AOL UK internet access sale [2006-e33]
AOL UK offers buyers of its internet access business the prospect of instant scale in broadband, enabling 1,000 exchanges to be unbundled on a shared LLU basis. However, it has relatively few of the t...
More ...    17 Jul 2006

UK Cable Prospects [2006-32]
The UK market for fixed line telecoms services is undergoing huge change. Local loop unbundling is increasing price erosion in both broadband and telephony. BSkyB, BT and Orange are all planning to la...
More ...    07 Jul 2006

A busy week in UK broadband [2006-e31]
BT’s launch of ‘Total Broadband’ represents a timely improvement in the value proposition for BT’s residential broadband customers but its impact will depend crucially on the success of BT Vision and...
More ...    22 Jun 2006

ITV1 NAR plunge in 2006 [2006-e30]
ITV plc national advertising revenues (NAR) from ITV1 fell by £50 million in 2005. This was caused chiefly by a loss of more than 6% in weighted share of commercial impacts in 2004, which enables a pr...
More ...    19 Jun 2006

New media and creative industries [2006-e29]
Here are the main points of the evidence I gave on 9 May 2006 before the House of Commons Select Committee for Culture, Media & Sport joint meeting with Trade and Industry Committee. I was questioned...
More ...    14 Jun 2006

Canal+ outlook for sub growth [2006-e28]
Vivendi Q1 2006 quarterly results show solid underlying improvement in earnings, but disappointing subscription figures, which fell by 40,000 in the quarter The cause of subscription take-up already f...
More ...    13 Jun 2006

Orange and Wanadoo in the UK: a match made in France? [2006-e27]
Orange’s new ‘free broadband’ offer brings savings of up to 60% for Orange UK customers who pay for broadband, and may appeal to a great many of them The product, however, has a massive cost to Orange...
More ...    13 Jun 2006

Fastweb model under strain [2006-e26]
Q1 2006 results show strong subscriber growth due to an enlarged LLU footprint and to promotions Fastweb’s high service model increasingly appeals to the business segment but aggressive competition on...
More ...    08 Jun 2006

Vodafone results: diverting to fixed line? [2006-e25]
Vodafone's performance in its core European markets is continuing to worsen in both absolute terms and in relation to its competitors, and its margin progression is weak We believe that its focus on 3...
More ...    01 Jun 2006

Cable & Wireless annual results ending 31st March 2006 [2006-e24]
International subsidiaries continue to perform solidly The new management is teeing up the core UK business for a successful turnaround Bulldog is burning increasing amounts of cash with little prospe...
More ...    31 May 2006

Eircom [2006-e23]
The directors of Eircom, the Irish incumbent, have recommended acceptance of a joint offer from Babcock and Brown Capital and the Eircom Employee Share Ownership Trust Sound market fundamentals mean t...
More ...    30 May 2006

Sky Italia and the broadband question [2006-e22]
Positive Q3 FY 2006 results and the announcement of a possible flotation have raised speculation that Sky Italia may be gearing itself up to follow BSkyB’s entry into broadband Sky Italia subscription...
More ...    30 May 2006

BT FY 2005-06 Q4 results [2006-e21]
BT is continuing to grow revenue in spite of increasing competition in the residential market We continue to expect group revenue growth to remain positive in spite of the impact of local loop unbundl...
More ...    22 May 2006

Versatel - Football-driven LLU? [2006-12]
The experience of Versatel (now owned by Tele2) in The Netherlands provides a cautionary tale for new entrant altnets hoping to use premium content to gain broadband market share in a well-contested a...
More ...    17 May 2006

Freebox to hit mobile? [2006-e20]
Illiad’s new Freebox in France promises savings of ‘up to’ 40% for mobile users by using Wi-Fi to make mobile calls at home, creating fears that it will harm the French mobile industry We estimate tha...
More ...    16 May 2006

BT Vision [2006-e19]
BT plans to launch BT Vision – its hybrid Freeview-IPTV service – in Q4 2006. The aim is to broaden the appeal of its broadband offerings and help it to withstand aggressive competition from local-loo...
More ...    09 May 2006

Sky and football: more to pay, less to show and reduced margin [2006-e18]
The FAPL has just auctioned six packages of televised live Premier League (PL) rights, each comprising 23 games, for the three years commencing autumn 2008. The total consideration of £1,714 million i...
More ...    08 May 2006

Valuing Premier League Football Rights [2006-11]
The FA Premier League Limited has set a deadline of 14:00 on Thursday 27th April 2006 for receiving bids for live televised Premier League (PL) rights under the new three-year contract due to start wi...
More ...    27 Apr 2006

Carphone Warehouse [2006-e17]
Carphone Warehouse (CPW) has launched a broadband/telephony bundle which effectively offers free broadband to non-cable customers in urban areas The company will take a significant cash hit in the ear...
More ...    12 Apr 2006

H3G results: 3 broken promises [2006-e16]
H3G’s 2005 results underperformed in 3 key areas: net subscriber additions were lower than promised, unit SACs were higher than promised and the group failed to reach EBITDA breakeven as promised The...
More ...    10 Apr 2006

NTL/Virgin Mobile [2006-e15]
NTL’s acquisition of Virgin Mobile will improve NTL’s prospects for revenue growth and enable it to exploit the Virgin brand and marketing expertise However, we do not share NTL management’s optimism...
More ...    05 Apr 2006

The PVR and Adding Value [2006-10]
The Personal Video Recorder (PVR) will play a central role in contesting the digital TV landscape in the UK over the course of digital switchover and broadband expansion. BSkyB’s market leader Sky+ wi...
More ...    31 Mar 2006

Mobile Video Downloads [2006-09]
Mobile video services (along with music) have been heralded as the ‘killer applications’ set to deliver the revenue and customer satisfaction long promised by 3G. In our report Mobile TV: Trials and T...
More ...    29 Mar 2006

Spanish Free-to-Air TV [2006-08]
With the launch of two new analogue terrestrial services and a relaunch of digital terrestrial television (DTT), the Spanish government has opened up the country’s free-to-air (FTA) TV market. Althoug...
More ...    24 Mar 2006

BT Wholesale Broadband Access Speeds [2006-e14]
BT Wholesale will launch IPStream Max, a rate adaptive ADSL product, on 31st March 2006, providing a downstream data rate greater than 6.5Mbit/s – a line speed that should support a wider range of goo...
More ...    22 Mar 2006

Iliad FY 2005 results [2006-e13]
Sharp rise in EBITDA margin to 31% in 2005 as Free increases the share of unbundled (on-net) subscribers from 53% to 70% and retains tight control of marketing spend in the 'landgrab' for customers in...
More ...    20 Mar 2006

UK PC Video-on-Demand [2006-07]
This companion report to UK TV VOD [2005-24] concludes that the number of PC-based video-on-demand (VOD) services in the UK is set to explode in the near future. Rising broadband penetration, to 35% o...
More ...    17 Mar 2006

Internet and Telephony Market Statistics Q4 2005 [2006-06]
Broadband connections continued to increase strongly in the UK in Q4 2005 with 935,000 net additions, taking the UK total to just over 9.8 million connections and household broadband penetration to 35...
More ...    13 Mar 2006

EMI-WMG Merger Prospects [2006-05]
Talk of a merger between the recorded music divisions of EMI and Warner Music Group to create the third largest recorded music group has been simmering for at least six months. After two failed attemp...
More ...    10 Mar 2006

Vodafone: all change? [2006-e12]
Vodafone’s discussions with Softbank to exit Japan could remove its most troubled and ill-fitting subsidiary, but only if the structure allows for a clean break, which will require tricky financial en...
More ...    06 Mar 2006

Mobile TV update: technology and consumer demand still very uncertain [2006-e11]
Mobile TV hype remains alive and well, but the DVB-H and DAB-IP standards are not progressing fast given a lack of European-wide spectrum IPWireless’s TDtv technology offers an intriguing alternative,...
More ...    06 Mar 2006

Cable & Wireless UK business update. "My gaff, my rules." [2006-e10]
C&W UK’s new Chairman John Pluthero’s turnaround strategy involves shedding 27,000 business customers and focusing on 800 of the largest accounts The resulting outlook for C&W UK’s performance in the...
More ...    01 Mar 2006

Sogecable FY 2005 results [2006-04]
Sogecable FY 2005 results recorded the first net profit (€7.7 million) since 2001, two and a half years after the merger with Vía Digital. With the after effects and restructuring costs of this merger...
More ...    27 Feb 2006

LLU in the UK III and BT - revenue meltdown? [2006-03]
Over the past 18 months, UK telecoms regulator Ofcom has seized on LLU as a catalyst for change, forcing BT to cut its LLU prices by up to 70%, separate its access services division from the rest of t...
More ...    15 Feb 2006

BT FY 2005/06 Q3 results: light at the end of the tunnel? [2006-e09]
Global Services is now established as the main engine of growth at BT The decline in underlying Group EBITDA is continuing to decelerate Local loop unbundling volumes are set to explode, but the impac...
More ...    13 Feb 2006

Cable & Wireless - take away the number you first thought of... [2006-e08]
C&W UK has warned of a sharp drop in organic EBITDA for C&W UK in 2006/07 The new UK management team, led by former Energis CEO John Pluthero, still has the opportunity to improve C&W UK’s longer-term...
More ...    07 Feb 2006

H3G - WePay, but you pay more [2006-e07]
H3G’s new UK prepay tariff ‘WePay’, launched this week, offers the appealing gimmick of paying customers to receive phone calls. Less appealing is the 32% outbound calling price rise accompanying this...
More ...    02 Feb 2006

Music Publishing 2006 [2006-02]
This report on Music Publishing 2006 [2006-02] updates our views on the prospects of the sector in the context of the continued difficulties of the recorded music market (Music sales continued to decl...
More ...    31 Jan 2006

Vodafone KPIs - strategic issues [2006-e06]
As predicted by Enders Analysis in August 2005, global recorded music sales declined by 2% during 2005 Strong growth in both online and mobile music revenues was not enough to compensate for the erosi...
More ...    27 Jan 2006

Music sales continued to decline in 2005 [2006-e05]
As predicted by Enders Analysis in August 2005, global recorded music sales declined by 2% during 2005 Strong growth in both online and mobile music revenues was not enough to compensate for the erosi...
More ...    26 Jan 2006

Mobile TV trial results [2006-e04]
The UK’s first two trials of broadcast mobile TV, run by Arqiva/O2 and BT Movio/ Virgin Mobile, reported results in the last week. 3G-based mobile TV is already available in the UK, but its one-to-one...
More ...    23 Jan 2006

Vodafone Radio DJ [2006-e03]
Vodafone announced last week a new extension to its range of music services that will offer European subscribers interactive mobile radio through a collaboration with Sony NetServices Although the...
More ...    18 Jan 2006

UK TV Trends [2006-01]
Our presentation UK TV Trends January 2006 [2006-01]* provides our most up-to-date views on three subjects: • Digital TV growth trends following the record surge of Freeview homes in December 2005; •...
More ...    18 Jan 2006

Consolidation in Italian mobile [2006-e02]
Egypt-based mobile operator Orascom’s investment in Hutchison Telecom creates an intriguing if convoluted link between the 3rd and 4th players in the Italian market, Wind and H3G An eventual merge...
More ...    17 Jan 2006

Freeview enters 2006 with a bang [2006-e01]
Freeview recorded its strongest monthly increase of 694,000 homes in December 2005 according to BARB survey estimates, with 6.393 million digital terrestrial television (DTT) homes projected for the b...
More ...    09 Jan 2006

UK TV Video-on-Demand [2005-24]
UK broadband network operators have begun full-scale deployment of video-on-demand (VOD) services. NTL/Telewest have almost completed the upgrade of their networks to enable homes in their footprint f...
More ...    08 Dec 2005

GCap Media [2005-23]
GCap Media's first financial results last week were described as "extremely disappointing” by Chief Executive Ralph Bernard. Formed earlier this year from the merger of GWR plc and Capital Radio plc,...
More ...    30 Nov 2005

3G Datacards [2005-22]
3G datacards slot into laptops to provide Internet connectivity when on the move. They make good use of the current patchy 3G networks: demand is likely to be concentrated in areas that are currently...
More ...    09 Nov 2005

UK Commercial Radio [2005-21]
The liberalised ownership provisions in the Communications Act 2003 have facilitated consolidation of the commercial radio sector in the past year. Two top-tier groups have emerged in GCap Media and E...
More ...    05 Oct 2005

Mobile TV [2005-20]
Mobile TV is being hailed as the next killer consumer mobile data application, and is already credited with being the most popular 3G service where it is offered. We find that the hype is overblow...
More ...    20 Sep 2005

NGN in the UK [2005-19]
BT and other industry players have announced plans to upgrade their fixed telecommunications networks to Next Generation Networks (NGNs). In the UK, BT’s ‘21st Century Network’ plans are the most ambi...
More ...    01 Sep 2005

TF1 - Digital Challenge [2005-18]
Television's old world of analogue scarcity produced a clutch of big names in free-to-air (FTA) commercial broadcasting: ITV1, TF1, Mediaset, RTL and Sat.1/Pro7 being among the most prominent in Europ...
More ...    25 Aug 2005

Recorded Music [2005-17]
After ten years of top line decline, the total recorded music market stabilised in 2004 at $34.4 billion, but our view remains that specific factors rather than fundamental change in the key market an...
More ...    19 Aug 2005

E-Recruitment and UK Regional Newspapers [2005-16]
Recruitment ad spend has led the growth of ad revenues of regional newspapers in recent years. Declining recruitment ad volumes in Q2 2005 and weak outlook for H2 2005 will significantly reduce ad rev...
More ...    11 Aug 2005

TSR - Impact on Industry [2005-15]
This report examines the impact on alternative communications service providers - unbundlers, resellers, altnets and the cable companies - of BT's proposed settlement of the Telecoms Strategic Review...
More ...    28 Jul 2005

Telecoms Strategic Review [2005-14]
Ofcom, BT and the industry are getting closer to completing the Telecoms Strategic Review (TSR), currently in its Phase 3, and scheduled to complete in the Autumn. Ofcom's proposals and the supportive...
More ...    05 Jul 2005

Freeview Plus [2005-13]
The competitive strength of Freeview is growing. Freeview is already in five million homes and increasing at the rate of about two million homes a year, far exceeding initial expectations at the time...
More ...    24 Jun 2005

Football Rights [2005-12]
Although Sky’s monopoly over UK Premier League football runs for only two more seasons, the jostling between other broadcasters eager to transmit top tier football matches has already begun. Persisten...
More ...    17 Jun 2005

LLU in France Update [2005-11]
France has become the largest market for broadband in Europe (7.7 million connections at the end of Q1 2005) as a result of the aggressive price competition unleashed by local loop unbundling (LLU) si...
More ...    17 Jun 2005

Ofcom - ITV Licence Fee Decision [2005-10]
Ofcom will announce at the end of June the new terms for ITV to operate the analogue portion of its broadcast licence for ITV1. According to Ofcom's own statements, it is obliged to estimate the full...
More ...    07 Jun 2005

UK Mobile Consumer Trends [2005-09]
The UK mobile market can give the unwary observer the impression of strong subscriber growth, dangerously high levels of competition for the incumbents, and high levels of consumer enthusiasm for both...
More ...    13 May 2005

UK Broadband Market 2005 [2005-08]
Broadband growth has been very strong in the UK, with 7 million businesses and households connecting to the Internet via a broadband cable or DSL connection at the end of Q1 2005. Driven by rapid migr...
More ...    10 May 2005

UK Digital TV Platform Growth [2005-07]
The success of Freeview has ignited demand from channel operators to jump on board. The lure of Freeview is exemplified by this week's decision of Channel 4 to broadcast E4 free-to-air. The enticement...
More ...    28 Apr 2005

Digital Terrestrial Television in France [2005-06]
Digital terrestrial TV (DTT) launched in France on 31st March. We expect significant enthusiasm for the wider channel choice available to the 15 million French homes (62%) served only by analogue terr...
More ...    21 Apr 2005

Fastweb - New Targets [2005-05]
As unbundlers in France increasingly look to migrate their customers from shared to full access – principally to sever the underlying telephony customer relationship with the incumbent and reduce chur...
More ...    17 Mar 2005

UK Mobile Spectrum Review [2005-04]
In January this year, Ofcom published its eagerly-awaited consultation document, “Spectrum Framework Review: Implementation Plan”, containing its plans for the release of new mobile spectrum and the l...
More ...    11 Mar 2005

Analogue switch-off [2005-03]
Analogue switch-off is of huge significance to audience share and thus advertising revenue of the existing terrestrial broadcasters (see Analogue Switch-Off [2004-26]). When switch-off occurs, ITV’s a...
More ...    21 Feb 2005

UK Residential Telephony Market Update [2005-02]
Carrier Pre-Selection (CPS) providers such as One.Tel and Carphone Warehouse are adding thousands of customers for fixed-line voice calls every week. BT has improved its competitive positioning in the...
More ...    16 Feb 2005

Digital Music Downloads [2005-01]
Our first report of 2005 deals with prospects for music download services to the PC and the mobile handset. We have long been sceptical of claims that music download stores like iTunes, combined with...
More ...    12 Jan 2005

Device and Network Convergence [2004-44]
Our last report of the year 2004 covers device and network convergence – a recently resurgent growth story for media, telecommunications and consumer electronics companies. But does it represent any m...
More ...    22 Dec 2004

Hutchison 3G - Predicting the Fall [2004-43]
H3G has made great strides this year, but these have mainly been in terms of reported subscribers and market perception rather than in fundamental terms. In this report we examine in depth both its gl...
More ...    10 Dec 2004

French Football Rights Auction [2004-42]
France's Ligue de football professionnel (LFP) will reveal the outcome of its first assessment of bids for broadcast rights to 380 first division football events and highlights for the seasons 2005-20...
More ...    08 Dec 2004

LLU in France 2004 [2004-41]
The experience in France of local loop unbundling (LLU) could be indicative of LLU in the UK. About 20% of France's 6 million DSL connections will be unbundled by Q4 2004 (just 4.5% of all lines), and...
More ...    03 Dec 2004

Vodafone 3G Launch [2004-40]
Vodafone this week announced its formal 3G launch to great fanfare, with new handsets, services and pricing. This brief note gives our view on the launch and likely impact in Europe and Japan.
More ...    12 Nov 2004

TV-over-DSL in the UK [2004-39]
TV-over-DSL has been pioneered in the UK by HomeChoice and Kingston Interactive Television (KIT), but their combined customer base is only about 15,000. ISPs and telcos are considering TV as a potenti...
More ...    11 Nov 2004

BSkyB Targets II [2004-38]
The BSkyB change of strategy announced last August by James Murdoch has claimed its first victim according to this report: the company's own original target of 30% operating margin by FY 2006/07. That...
More ...    05 Nov 2004

NTL 2004 [2004-37]
NTL’s successful reshaping of its balance sheet over the last two years since it emerged from Chapter 11 has meant that the company is now a reliable future generator of cash. Management disciplines h...
More ...    27 Oct 2004

Recorded Music 2004 [2004-36]
Our annual assessment of the global recorded music market highlights the key drivers of the market's development – competition for the consumer wallet from mobile telephony, video games, DVD sales and...
More ...    18 Oct 2004

Update on 3G in Japan [2004-35]
This note updates on 3G in Japan [2004-24] after visits to NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and Vodafone Japan, and recent announcements in advance of Vodafone’s investor day next week. We conclude that the market's...
More ...    23 Sep 2004

UK Mobile Call Charge Trends [2004-34]
The profitability of the UK 2G mobile networks depends on the continued avoidance of a price war. Are there any signs yet of retail price erosion? This report suggests that mobile prices have in fact...
More ...    22 Sep 2004

Virgin Mobile and MVNOs [2004-33]
MVNOs have attracted much attention recently. Virgin Mobile's IPO revealed attractive economics and discount MVNOs in certain smaller European markets have had success. This report considers the quest...
More ...    15 Sep 2004

LLU in the UK II [2004-32]
Local loop unbundling (LLU) is about to become a reality in the UK. This is the main conclusion of our quantitative assessment of the cost savings to be realised from unbundling local exchanges follow...
More ...    09 Sep 2004

Sogecable and Spanish Pay-TV [2004-31]
This report examines pay-TV developments in Spain where Digital+, Sogecable's DTH pay-TV service, has just celebrated its first birthday (Sogecable [2003-23]). Sogecable financial targets for 2005 are...
More ...    02 Sep 2004

ITV audience and NAR under the CRR Remedy [2004-30]
Weak Q2 commercial viewing figures fuelled stories that ITV1 NAR could be approximately £100 million lower in 2005 unless audience share rallied in H2 2004. This was due to the Contracts Rights Renewa...
More ...    05 Aug 2004

ITV Licence Fees [2004-29]
Ofcom produced a tough and rigorous document on ITV licence fee renewals. Although the paper is dense and difficult to understand, we think it is bad news for ITV. The likely licence fee settlement is...
More ...    21 Jul 2004

Online Advertising Europe 2004 [2004-28]
Online advertising outperformed other media in 2003 in the three biggest European markets of the UK, Germany and France, a trend which we expect to continue in 2004-06. Paid search has been the princi...
More ...    15 Jul 2004

UK Broadband Market H1 2004 [2004-27]
UK broadband take-up continued to be strong in H1 2004, with an estimated 1.1 million new home and business broadband subscribers expanding the base to 4.2 million. Take-up is being aided by aggressiv...
More ...    25 Jun 2004

Analogue Switch-Off [2004-26]
The structure of the UK broadcasting industry will be hugely influenced by the timing of the analogue switch-off. It will particularly affect ITV, whose licence fee is set by reference to the percenta...
More ...    22 Jun 2004

Global Games Market [2004-25]
The unveiling of new handheld gamers at E3, the games industry's annual gathering in Los Angeles, has resuscitated interest in the fast maturing market for handheld gamers. Sony's PlayStation Portable...
More ...    18 Jun 2004

3G in Japan [2004-24]
Although 3G mobile networks are being rolled out aggressively in Japan, instead of the promised land of increased voice and data revenue driving higher profits, revenue is stagnant and costs are risin...
More ...    15 Jun 2004

UK Digital TV Platform Growth [2004-23]
UK digital TV (DTV) growth is rocketing ahead, but how fast? Ofcom and BARB – the two ‘official’ sources – agree that growth has been faster since Q4 2003 and that Freeview is the main reason, but are...
More ...    08 Jun 2004

French Broadband Market [2004-22]
The take-off of local loop unbundling in H2 2003 enabled France to record the highest rate of broadband market growth in 2003 in Europe. This torrid pace of growth continued in Q1 2004 due to retail p...
More ...    02 Jun 2004

Cable & Wireless: UK vs. the 'exotics' [2004-21]
This report examines the medium-term prospects for Cable & Wireless. In 2003, analysts sensed a new dawn for C&W following the arrival of new management and the company's exit from the US.
More ...    14 May 2004

UK Mobile User Survey [2004-20]
In this report we update our regular survey of UK mobile users, with the latest survey conducted in April 2004. We look at user penetration, handset replacement rates, camera phone ownership and use,...
More ...    10 May 2004

Happy Birthday iTunes [2004-19]
Happy Birthday iTunes! It is just over a year since Apple launched iTunes and the media continues to talk up the second coming of the music industry, whose saviour appears in the form of affable Steve...
More ...    06 May 2004

Local Loop Unbundling in the UK [2004-18]
Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) has been a failure in the UK, with BT maintaining a stranglehold on the wholesale supply of DSL connections. But in other European countries, LLU has helped provide competi...
More ...    05 May 2004

Canal Plus and French Pay-TV [2004-17]
This in-depth report on pay-TV in France charts the course of Canal Plus and its main, but much smaller, competitor, TPS, over the period 2004-06. We anticipate pay-TV penetration will rise from 35% i...
More ...    04 May 2004

UK Online Console Gaming [2004-16]
This report updates our readers on the disappointing advance of online console gaming in the UK. Although the UK is the third largest video games market in the world, and was the first country in Euro...
More ...    30 Apr 2004

UK Commercial Radio [2004-15]
Modest progress has been made towards consolidation in commercial radio since we last reported on the issue in mid-2003. Although the new Communications Act has liberalised the ownership rules, the po...
More ...    16 Apr 2004

Voice-over-IP [2004-14]
Voice-over-Internet-Protocol (VoIP) is a fashionable topic and this report provides our assessment about whether the mass market potential in Europe matches the rhetoric of enthusiasts or the experien...
More ...    07 Apr 2004

Music Publishing 2004 [2004-13]
We expect the music publishing market to grow from $3.7 billion in 2003 to $5 billion in 2010. Performance, mobile phone ring tone and synchronisation revenues will be the most important drivers of gr...
More ...    05 Apr 2004

E-Recruitment and Regional Newspapers [2004-12]
A new menace hangs over the future of regional newspapers, an industry already suffering from declining display advertising and paid circulation. Starting with the NHS Electronic Recruitment Programme...
More ...    26 Mar 2004

Mediaset [2004-11]
Our first report on Mediaset, the Italian commercial TV empire controlled by Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, covers the company's strong results for 2003 and prospects for 2004 and 2005. The company...
More ...    22 Mar 2004

Fastweb [2004-10]
Fastweb is an interesting altnet break-out story from Milan, Italy. Fastweb has a two-tiered network composed of a fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) network and the more recent DSL network based on fully unbun...
More ...    18 Mar 2004

Comcast/Disney: The Strategy Examined [2004-09]
Although the prospect of a successful Comcast bid for Disney has receded almost completely, we expect it to come back. The strategic imperative for Comcast to integrate with a leading content producer...
More ...    05 Mar 2004

Wholesale DSL Access Products [2004-08]
Ofcom is about to issue a decision that will have a major impact on the way the UK broadband market develops. It concerns the pricing of wholesale DSL connections. The decision will be an important fi...
More ...    04 Mar 2004

UK Broadband Market 2004-2006 [2004-07]
Broadband took off in 2003 reaching 3.1 million cable and DSL connections at the end of the year. We anticipate a further massive shift to broadband in 2004, but mainly to the benefit of DSL suppliers...
More ...    19 Feb 2004

Freeview Impact [2004-06]
Does Freeview, the free-to-air digital terrestrial television (DTT) service, represent a serious and growing threat to the pay-TV offerings from BSkyB, NTL and Telewest? This report presents the resul...
More ...    13 Feb 2004

Mobile Location-Based Services [2004-05]
Location-based services (LBS) have long been credited as a key new mobile data application destined to generate substantial extra revenues for the mobile operators. A number of consumer-focused LBS ha...
More ...    06 Feb 2004

European DTV Trends 2003-2005 [2004-04]
European digital TV take-up enjoyed a mild recovery in 2003, adding about 4 million households to reach 30 million households at the end of the year. We expect the momentum to build in 2004 and 2005....
More ...    29 Jan 2004

UK Mobile User Survey [2004-03]
Handset sales in the UK and the rest of Europe have reportedly been strong over the last few months, with camera phones selling well. In this report we look at our most recent survey of UK mobile hand...
More ...    21 Jan 2004

Iliad [2004-02]
We write regularly about Free, the French ISP that is leading Europe in unbundling local loops. Through its proprietary technology, the Freebox, Free now offers cheap DSL access, free VoIP (voice over...
More ...    14 Jan 2004

The Major Music Groups [2004-01]
As we predicted in our last report on the music business, the end of 2003 saw the beginning of the corporate activity that the industry has been itching to carry out for a decade. In this note, we loo...
More ...    08 Jan 2004

Vodafone: Strategy vs. Reality [2003-52]
Vodafone's strategic direction appears little altered since its change of CEO earlier this year. In this report we look at the company’s overall global positioning and prospects.
More ...    19 Dec 2003

Contracts Rights Renewal [2003-51]
The Competition Commission inquiry into the proposed merger of Carlton and Granada imposed a remedy called Contracts Rights Renewal. Ofcom devised the details. We conducted a series of interviews to d...
More ...    10 Dec 2003

The Personal Video Recorder [2003-50]
So far, the PVR has had indifferent success. Despite the extraordinary enthusiasm of owners, PVRs have struggled to become a fixture in the home. This is now changing as prices fall and pay-TV operato...
More ...    01 Dec 2003

Local Loop Unbundling in France [2003-49]
Comparisons between the French and UK broadband market are thought-provoking. In France there will be 3 million DSL connections and 210,000 unbundled lines by the end of 2003; in the UK in October thi...
More ...    27 Nov 2003

Music Mergers Update [2003-48]
The elaborate mating dance in the music industry is nearing a conclusion. We look briefly at the main participants in the game and conclude that the Warner/EMI combination still looks likely to happen...
More ...    18 Nov 2003

BSkyB Targets [2003-47]
BSkyB’s quarterly results will be delivered on Friday 14th November. Prior to these new figures, this report gives our views on the attainability of BSkyB’s medium term targets.
More ...    13 Nov 2003

Mobile Number Portability [2003-46]
On 24th November, the FCC hopes finally to force through mobile number portability to the US market. In this report we look at the impact that MNP has had in European markets, drawing conclusions for...
More ...    07 Nov 2003

Consumer Reactions to 3G [2003-45]
The service from '3' in the UK is one of the few examples of a 3G network in action in Europe. In this report we look at the evidence of customer experiences at 3 to determine the potential popularity...
More ...    27 Oct 2003

French Pay-TV Update [2003-44]
The promised turnaround at Canal+, the core asset of Groupe Canal+, the pay-TV division of Vivendi Universal, looks less certain due to sluggish growth of the French pay-TV market in 2003 to date and...
More ...    13 Oct 2003

Universal Music H1 2003 Results [2003-43]
Universal Music is the world’s largest music company, but has not been immune from the savage downturn in the industry. This note provides our sales projections for the company and places an approxima...
More ...    09 Oct 2003

UK Broadband and Internet Trends Autumn 2003 [2003-42]
This note updates on the positioning strategies of ISPs serving the DSL market in autumn 2003, as a companion to our recent reports on Cable [2003-38] and Broadbanders [2003-39]. The UK Internet marke...
More ...    02 Oct 2003

UK TV Viewing Trends [2003-41]
This report covers some of the important developments in UK television viewing in the first half of 2003. It focuses on assessing the true number of Freeview homes, the encouraging progress of ITV2 an...
More ...    30 Sep 2003

'Better Than Free' [2003-40]
This report sets out a programme of actions to help slow the growth of music and video piracy. For the last five years the content industries and ISPs have been in a state of almost open war as a resu...
More ...    22 Sep 2003

Broadbanders [Ref 2003-39]
This report looks at the characteristics of today’s UK broadband users in order to understand (a) likely future trends in subscriber numbers growth; and (b) how usage patterns vary between broadband a...
More ...    19 Sep 2003

Recorded Music [Ref 2003-38]
The severity of the issues facing the world recorded music business is becoming clearer by the month. As a result, our concerns about the future of music business have increased over the last year. In...
More ...    15 Sep 2003

UK Cable [Ref 2003-37]
The UK cable sector is now hardly covered by investment bank analysts. (It may be impossible to find anyone who isn’t tarnished by having a previous ‘Buy’ recommendation on the stocks.) But since NTL’...
More ...    04 Sep 2003

Global Mobile Trends [Ref 2003-36]
In this report we compare the mobile markets and operator business models in Western Europe, the US and Japan. We examine the main differences, and judge whether convergence is possible or likely.
More ...    29 Aug 2003

H3G UK Update [Ref 2003-35]
On 21st August Hutchison Whampoa reported on the progress of its 3G investments as part of its interim report. This brief note examines this progress compared to our expectations, and reassesses the t...
More ...    27 Aug 2003

Wanadoo H1 2003 [Ref 2003-34]
Wanadoo just reported its H1 2003 results and the FY 2003 Group EBITDA target looks well in hand thanks to the outstanding performance of the directories division. The performance of the Internet segm...
More ...    11 Aug 2003

The ITV Merger - The Final Hurdle [Ref 2003-33]
Last week Enders Analysis interviewed David Elstein. Elstein is leading a team attempting to put in place a new management at ITV in the event that the merger is allowed by the Competition Commission....
More ...    05 Aug 2003

UK Commercial Radio [Ref 2003-32]
The Communications Act heralds a brave new world for commercial radio... or does it? Although newly relaxed media ownership rules vastly increase the scope for consolidation, the competition authoriti...
More ...    23 Jul 2003

BT Yahoo! Broadband [Ref 2003-31]
BT and Yahoo! recently announced the launch of BT Yahoo! Broadband for September 2003, a co-branded DSL transport/personalised home page/broadband portal service. The goal is to revitalise BTopenworld...
More ...    18 Jul 2003

New EU Telecoms Regulatory Framework [Ref 2003-30]
By the 25th of July, we expect the Communications Bill will have received royal assent. The Bill, together with Oftel's new tasks as regulator pending the handover to Ofcom, represents the UK's implem...
More ...    16 Jul 2003

Online Advertising Outlook 2003 [Ref 2003-29]
Online advertising in the UK, Germany and France proved to be extremely resilient in 2002, despite a difficult advertising environment generally, victim of the soft economic conditions in Europe. Base...
More ...    09 Jul 2003

Freeview [Ref 2003-28]
Freeview is the most successful Digital Terrestrial Television service in the world. But, despite its success in attracting purchasers, it will not manage to lay the basis for the proposed analogue sw...
More ...    01 Jul 2003

Interactive TV Advertising [Ref 2003-27]
This report examines the revenue potential of Direct interactive TV advertising (DiTV) for BSkyB and other UK channels. This advertising format exploits the technology of BSkyB's Digibox to provide th...
More ...    26 Jun 2003

BT Global Services [Ref 2003-26]
Global Services is the new name for BT's Ignite division. The structure of this important part of BT's business is complex and extremely difficult to understand. BT itself promotes the division as its...
More ...    23 Jun 2003

Handset Survey [Ref 2003-25]
This note reports on the results of our latest bi-monthly survey in May 2003 of handset owners and purchase intentions for the near future. Highlights include the rising share of Nokia to 57% of the U...
More ...    17 Jun 2003

3's New Tariffs [Ref 2003-24]
On June 9th '3' launched 2 new tariffs aggressively targeting the core of the GSM contract base. In this report we look at the potential impact of these on both H3G and the UK GSM operators.
More ...    12 Jun 2003

Sogecable [Ref 2003-23]
The long drawn out merger between the two Spanish pay-TV operators will finally be consummated in the next few weeks. As we have seen elsewhere in Europe, competition in pay-TV produces little but red...
More ...    02 Jun 2003

Digital Music Downloading [Ref 2003-22]
It was just like the old days. Apple started an online music service, which was immediately well received. Steve Jobs proclaimed loudly that the world would never be the same. Investment banks rushed...
More ...    23 May 2003

UK Broadband and Internet Trends Q1 2003 [Ref 2003-21]
Part of our regular series on the UK broadband and Internet markets, this note highlights the shifting fortunes of ISPs and cable operators in competing against BT brands on the fast growing residenti...
More ...    21 May 2003

BT's Residential Tariff Increase [Ref 2003-20]
On June 1st BT is launching a radically new pricing structure for its 10m BT Together customers, dropping the distinction between local and long distance calls, and introducing a flat rate 6p for off-...
More ...    15 May 2003

The Digital Bomb III [Ref 2003-19]
Digital Bomb lll is our third annual assessment of the global market for digital set-top boxes and associated hardware. So far, our forecasts have been accurate and we continue to see relatively slow...
More ...    09 May 2003

Freeserve versus Oftel [Ref 2003-18]
Last week’s decision from the Competition Appeal Tribunal was seen as a victory for Freeserve over BT. Does this mean Oftel will have to use a different approach to regulation? Does the decision heral...
More ...    25 Apr 2003

The Services from '3' [Ref 2003-17]
Perhaps inevitably, ‘3’ opened for business before it was really ready. As a result, its services are patchy and unreliable. Some of these problems will be overcome in the next few weeks. Others will...
More ...    16 Apr 2003

Vivendi Universal [Ref 2003-16]
Vivendi's only agenda at this time is to effect a disposal of its non-core assets for the best price to reduce debt to manageable levels. This note casts a critical eye on prospects for sale of USA Ne...
More ...    14 Apr 2003

'3' and 3G [Ref 2003-15]
With the handsets finally available and (to some extent) working, Hutchison 3G's '3' operation has finally launched in the UK. In this report we review the commercial prospects for '3' in particular a...
More ...    10 Apr 2003

Wanadoo FY 2002 Results (Ref 2003-14)
Wanadoo reached an important milestone in 2002, reporting its first (very small) positive EBITDA margin on its French Internet business, thanks to broadband-related revenue increases and lower narrowb...
More ...    04 Apr 2003

Sony vs. Xbox Live (Ref 2003-13)
The recent launch of online gaming from the major games consoles makers has focused attention again on the future of Xbox. Will the online version, Xbox Live, enable Microsoft to improve its position...
More ...    28 Mar 2003

Piracy (Ref 2003-12)
The troubles of the global music industry are usually assumed to derive from the growth of piracy. This report argues that physical piracy is probably no more of a problem than it has been in the rece...
More ...    18 Mar 2003

Churn (Ref 2003-11)
Little research has been done into why consumers move from one supplier to another. Churn, as this phenomenon is known, is much discussed but little understood. We carried out some research to show wh...
More ...    07 Mar 2003

Camera Phones & MMS in 2003 (Ref 2003-10)
In this report we look at the sales and usage of camera phones in Europe, and estimate future sales based in part on the results of our regular survey of UK mobile users. As a consequence of these fin...
More ...    05 Mar 2003

Fixed Line Telecoms (Ref 2003-09)
In this report we look at three regulatory initiatives to increase competitors access to the 'last mile' of incumbent monopolists: CPS and WLR in the UK, and UNE-P in the US. BT's market shares losses...
More ...    28 Feb 2003

UK TV Viewing Trends (Issue 4) (Ref 2003-08)
This issue of our regular report on TV trends in the UK looks at pay-TV subscriber numbers, the position of Freeview, and the impact of the huge expansion in the number of digital channels. Our analys...
More ...    24 Feb 2003

UK Broadband & Internet Trends Q4 2002 (Ref 2003-07)
BT will be announcing tomorrow its latest results on meeting the target of 1 million broadband connections by H1 2003. Some difficulty could be anticipated from the slow monthly pace of connections in...
More ...    12 Feb 2003

The ITV Merger (Ref 2003-06)
The public debate about the ITV merger has revolved around whether the maintenance of two separate sales houses is the appropriate remedy to be imposed by any Competition Commission inquiry. We argue...
More ...    11 Feb 2003

SMS TV (Ref 2003-05)
Interactivity via the TV set was one of the most misguided bubbles of the late 1990s. Fancy software and mini keyboards were supposed to provide a replacement for the PC. As matters have turned out, t...
More ...    31 Jan 2003

Canal+ vs. TPS (Ref 2003-04)
On 23 January, the French Competition Council dealt what is likely to be a deathblow to the ambitions of Canal+ Group to obtain exclusive rights to French Premier League football events. The Competiti...
More ...    30 Jan 2003

EMI Music Group (Ref 2003-03)
A few weeks ago, it looked as though EMI would follow Safeway into a frenzied auction in which trade buyers competed with canny buy-out funds. The rumoured interest was sparked by the steady fall in E...
More ...    24 Jan 2003

Tracing the Decline in ITV1 Viewing (Ref 2003-02)
This report picks apart the evidence on why ITV1 is rapidly losing audience share. It shows that more intense competition in terrestrial homes is the key reason, not the impact of the growth of the mu...
More ...    22 Jan 2003

French Broadband: The Final Battle?
ISPs have long found it difficult to challenge Wanadoo on its home French market successfully.   Wanadoo has built a commanding lead in the narrowband segment of the Internet access market, and domina...
More ...    10 Jan 2003

UK Handset Survey
We have recently completed our December survey of UK mobile users, which shows increased purchase intentions for handsets in general and camera phones in particular.  We summarise the results in this...
More ...    19 Dec 2002

UK Competition Commission Investigation Update
In January the UK Competition Commission (CC) is expected to issue its report on the pricing of mobile termination rates, an issue that was referred to it by Oftel after the UK operators rejected Ofte...
More ...    17 Dec 2002

Digital Television in Europe
This report provides our forecasts for the growth rate of digital television homes in Europe over the next three years. We split countries into four groups and predict how the numbers of households wi...
More ...    13 Dec 2002

Can NTL Service its new debt?
In the next few days, NTL expects to emerge from Chapter 11, relieved of $11 billion of debt. While the long negotiations over financial restructuring have been in progress, NTL management has been co...
More ...    12 Dec 2002

TF1 - The Future of TPS
This note looks at the position of TPS, the satellite pay-TV venture largely owned by TF1 in France. We particularly focus on the issue of payments for football rights because sports rights have bec...
More ...    10 Dec 2002

Universal Music - Valuation
Universal Music is an important component of Vivendi’s business. As M. Fourtou shuffles his cards, the disposal or flotation of Universal becomes more likely by the day and this report values this mar...
More ...    05 Dec 2002

C4 and E4
One response to the growth of the satellite and cable households has been for terrestrial broadcasters to launch their own digital channels. These channels are beginning to absorb significant fraction...
More ...    29 Nov 2002

Mobile and Internet Substitution
Weak revenue growth has been a feature of both European and US fixed line incumbent operators over the last six months, with the root of the problem lying in poor growth, or even decline, in the vol...
More ...    27 Nov 2002

Canal+ The Showdown
Based on the recent announcement by the French Professional Football League, we now expect Canal+ to be awarded the exclusive rights to broadcast Premier League events for the three seasons starting i...
More ...    26 Nov 2002

The Song Remains the Same
In spite of the widely publicised decline in sales of recorded music, the 'music publishing' business grew at an average annual rate of over 4% between 1995 and 2000. This report assesses the prospect...
More ...    15 Nov 2002

Canal+ and Cegetel
The November 12th bids for football rights are a nightmare for Canal+. Its operating margins and cash flow are under pressure, but failure to outbid TPS would mean a probable loss of perhaps 25% of...
More ...    08 Nov 2002

UK Digital TV Forecasts
This note provides our forecast for the number of UK households able to receive extra television through satellite, cable and terrestrial multi-channel platforms. Though Sky’s performance has been s...
More ...    06 Nov 2002

UK Internet Trends Q3 2002
This note shows the mixed evidence on household penetration. Most surveys report a distinct plateau in subscribing household numbers in the UK, particularly compared to France and Germany, where numbe...
More ...    04 Nov 2002

BT Broadband
In this report, we show that price competition between ISPs is helping to push broadband penetration to higher levels than we expected. BT is likely to achieve at least some of its targets for broadba...
More ...    04 Nov 2002

Mobile Device Update
In this short note we look at three data product offerings recently launched by the operators: Vodafone Live!, the Orange SPV and Vodafone Mobile Office laptop card service. Vodafone Live! follows a...
More ...    01 Nov 2002

UK Consumer Magazines
The UK consumer magazines business has shown steady growth and stable profitability, though some individual participants have suffered from failed attempts at international expansion. The industry has...
More ...    28 Oct 2002

Vodafone Live
Vodafone Live represents an attempt to claw back some of the initiative from handset manufacturers, and to offer product and services that add to revenue. We look at the early evidence from the UK abo...
More ...    28 Oct 2002

UK TV Viewing Trends - Issue 3
This is the third of our regular reports on UK TV viewing. The report contains details to support the following assertions The evidence of a rapid slowing of the growth in multichannel homes is i...
More ...    15 Oct 2002

Robbie Williams
What prompted EMI to spend about £60 million to acquire Robbie’s next two records and to buy options on the next four? Even for an artist as successful as Robbie Williams, the numbers do not add up...
More ...    07 Oct 2002

Nokia 3G Handset Launch
Last week Nokia launched its first 3G handset, the 6650. Or did it? Although the size, weight and price initially looked impressive, the handset has not really been launched (not until H1 2003), and t...
More ...    03 Oct 2002

Mobile Handset Replacement
This note reports on our third bi-monthly survey of handset replacement intentions in the UK. Purchase intentions have weakened slightly in the last four months, suggesting a further lengthening in th...
More ...    01 Oct 2002

Wanadoo H1 2002 Results
Wanadoo's results for the first half of 2002, detailed in the attached note, show that the company is well on track to make its target of positive EBITDA as the loss margin has been cut by half on t...
More ...    30 Sep 2002

UK Broadband Market
This note provides an update on the state of the UK broadband market at the end of the summer. The number of broadband users in the UK is rising fast, but much of this growth has arisen from the intro...
More ...    23 Sep 2002

Orange UK's New Tariff
On Wednesday Orange announced a simple new single tariff range for all its new contract users. Although there are some benefits to both consumers and Orange of tariff simplification, the main impact...
More ...    16 Sep 2002

European Mobile Operators - Mobile Valuation
In this report, we look at the components of a theoretical DCF valuation of European mobile operators, focusing on Vodafone as the most salient example, and compare our views with those of the ‘analys...
More ...    15 Sep 2002

Korean Broadband, Wireless and TV
This report looks at whether the extraordinary investment in Korean digital infrastructure has changed consumer behaviour. A combination of the Korean government and the large conglomerates have prov...
More ...    15 Sep 2002

Consolidation in Media Buying
The last three years have seen huge concentration in the marketing services industry. One source suggests that 56% of the world’s advertising billings now pass through just seven buying groups, up fro...
More ...    10 Sep 2002

Wi-Fi: Wireless Data in Public 'Hotspots'
The last few weeks have seen several enthusiastic announcements from telecom operators eager to start public Wi-Fi services. In this note we look at the prospects for public Wi-Fi. Our analysis sugges...
More ...    30 Aug 2002

Camera Phones
Camera phones represent the best hope of the mobile operators. Proven demand in Japan gives European operators reason for optimism that cameras will increase ARPU. Handset manufacturers believe it wil...
More ...    13 Aug 2002

Where Did the Music Go?
This report provides our analysis of the main factors in the evolution of the global music market in the period 2002-2006. We identify the main external factors, such as the current strong video ga...
More ...    06 Aug 2002

UK Broadband/Internet Trends H1 2002
This report provides an insight into the effect on consumers of the significant changes in retail pricing and promotion of broadband, as well as an update on the size and dynamics of the UK Internet...
More ...    30 Jul 2002

European Mobile Operators - Capital Expenditure Trends
Analysts are predicting substantial declines in mobile industry capital expenditure when expressed as a percentage of turnover. These improvements are supposed to be driven by (a) declining growth in...
More ...    19 Jul 2002

European Online Advertising
This report addresses four principal questions: The likely development of overall advertising in Europe in 2002 and 2003; The development of overall online advertising in the same period; The r...
More ...    18 Jul 2002

The High Cost of Going Digital - The experience of BSkyB
In The Digital Bomb II (2002-21), we asserted that the worldwide switch to digital TV would take place more slowly than most commentators expect. We base this view on our assessment that there is no...
More ...    28 Jun 2002

Resellers of Calls
Are resellers with ‘stretchy brands’ going to succeed where others have failed in dislodging BT from a dominant position in the fixed residential market for calls? Stretchy brands are widely toute...
More ...    12 Jun 2002

The Digital Terrestrial Licence Applications
Digital terrestrial television in the UK and elsewhere faces three enormous problems: (1) the paucity of attractive programming available for free distribution; (2) the uncertainty of the coverage a...
More ...    12 Jun 2002

Mobile Termination Charges
This note looks at the likely extent of regulatory pressures on reducing termination charges for off-net calls to the 2G networks of mobile network operators (MNOs) in the UK, Italy and Germany. Th...
More ...    12 Jun 2002

Handset Sales and the Replacement Cycle
In developed markets, the crucial determinant of the level of mobile handset sales is the speed of replacement, not the volume of new subscribers. But data on when customers expect to replace their...
More ...    07 Jun 2002

UK TV Viewing Trends - Issue 2
Despite the bad press it is receiving, the BARB TV viewing panel appears to us to be settling down and providing robust results. In this note, Toby Syfret shows that UK viewing trends now appear to be...
More ...    06 Jun 2002

European Mobile Operators - Revenue Growth
In this note we look at the recent revenue growth performance of European mobile operators. We show that the current pessimism about future performance looks broadly justified. We comment on the incre...
More ...    17 May 2002

Wanadoo Q1 2002 Results
This note contains our latest update on Wanadoo, France's leading ISP and broadband service provider, following on from the report we issued in April. Wanadoo's Q1 2002 results are on target with t...
More ...    17 May 2002

UK Regional Newspapers
This is the third in our series of notes on UK newspapers and concerns regional newspapers. Unlike other media sectors, 2002 has got off to a positive start (as we predicted) due to resilience in ne...
More ...    14 May 2002

The Digital Bomb II - The Digital TV World Market
This report explains why we are pessimistic about the short and medium term prospects of the global digital TV supply chain. While some recently published forecasts of digital TV penetration remain un...
More ...    02 May 2002

Hutchison 3G - The Last of the White Elephants?
This note discusses the likely obstacles to a successful launch of H3G UK, the most aggressive 3G new entrant in Europe. Our main points: In its projections supporting its £3.2 billion debt fi...
More ...    02 May 2002

BT Broadband
BT's direct access broadband product attracted a lot of attention last week. This note examines the likely scale of demand for the product over the next four years. We conclude that although the pro...
More ...    26 Apr 2002

Digital Terrestrial Television
We think that ITV Digital will eventually be forced to close. What will replace the service on the digital terrestrial spectrum? This note looks at the possible outcomes once the commercial televisi...
More ...    10 Apr 2002

UK Broadband
The BT self-install broadband product appears to be working well. Our own trial showed it was easy to install and functioned perfectly. More important, perhaps, the current economics look accep...
More ...    05 Apr 2002

Wanadoo
Wanadoo is a business combining extensive interests in European ISPs with a strongly cash-generative directory business. Wanadoo's position as the leading French ISP is secure. Its position as an ISP...
More ...    04 Apr 2002

UK National Newspapers
UK national newspapers are in poor shape. The inherent problem of the industry – too many papers chasing too few readers – has been exacerbated by a sharp decline in advertising revenue since Septe...
More ...    22 Mar 2002

Telewest
Telewest has drawn away from its key competitor in terms of UK performance. However, we still believe Telewest's bonds are worth less than 50% of their face value. This note explains why.
More ...    08 Mar 2002

UK TV Viewing Trends - Issue 1
This report is the first of a quarterly series by Toby Syfret, one of Europe's best known commentators on viewing trends. In this issue, Toby looks at recent evidence on UK multichannel viewing, pa...
More ...    07 Mar 2002

UK Internet Trends - Q4 2001
The UK Internet population continued to grow very slowly in the fall of 2001, reaching 14.7 million home users (30% adult penetration rate). Although this slow pace of customer growth may give dot.co...
More ...    27 Feb 2002

Sky's Operating Performance
Sky's continued excellent performance has attracted favourable comment in the weeks since its half yearly results. But much of the commentary missed some critical points. The analysts did not questi...
More ...    22 Feb 2002

European Mobile Operators - Mobile Data
The mobile operators in the UK and elsewhere probably make a higher margin on SMS than on any other product. We think that about 30% of a UK operator's gross margin in derived from SMS and the percent...
More ...    15 Feb 2002

NTL - Can the Restructuring Work?
The painful restructuring process at NTL is probably well underway. Holders of NTL bonds will have to accept a significant reduction in the nominal value of their holdings. To us, the crucial questi...
More ...    11 Feb 2002

Oftel Report on Broadband
This brief note concerns further evidence of strong price sensitivity to broadband prices, as provided by Oftel's recent qualitative research. Since we expect an announcement from BT Group on February...
More ...    07 Feb 2002

Mobile Operators - The Pricing of Calls to Mobiles
The charges imposed by the mobile operators for handling incoming calls are a very important part of their revenue stream. The UK telecoms regulator is attempting to force the networks to reduce their...
More ...    22 Jan 2002

Cable vs DSL?
This report is a companion to Broadband Europe (2002-02), issued concurrently, and looks more closely at cable’s ability to compete with incumbents on marketing broadband. Key points include: Broa...
More ...    16 Jan 2002

Broadband Europe
The potential for residential broadband connectivity in France, Germany and the UK depends on the availability of low-priced broadband products (hardware, installation and monthly subscriptions) and a...
More ...    16 Jan 2002

Alleged 25% Drop in ITV Viewing
The flow of news about ITV is going from bad to worse. But we think that the market may have misunderstood the real story behind last week's bombshell that ITV viewing has fallen by 25% in a year. T...
More ...    15 Jan 2002

UK Internet Trends
15 million UK adults regularly (at least once a month) accessed the Internet from home in Q3 2001, the same as in Q2 2001. This stagnation is due to mainly seasonal factors and we expect growth of th...
More ...    21 Dec 2001

French TV Market
This report contains our analysis of the French TV market. France, like the UK, is a difficult market for pay-TV and, recently, for some analogue terrestrial channels as well. We look at the analogies...
More ...    20 Dec 2001

Mobile Operators - ARPU Trends
In this note we summarise the available evidence on trends in ARPU among European mobile operators. We demonstrate the increasing trend towards stable or increasing revenue per subscriber in key mar...
More ...    19 Dec 2001

Regional Newspapers
The regional newspaper business in the UK is a mature industry with improved operating management and a small number of powerful players. It is well placed to weather any downturn, though its d...
More ...    18 Dec 2001

Microsoft Windows XP
Microsoft XP has wider significance than most analysts appreciate. While the operating system is, in itself, not a huge advance on existing products - particularly Windows 2000 - its true significance...
More ...    14 Dec 2001

Mobile Handset Market - Q3 Update
Nokia's recent guidance suggested a modest recovery in handset sales in 2002, followed by a strong resurgence thereafter. We think the position will be different and look for unit sales of about 450...
More ...    10 Dec 2001

Mobile Handset Market - New Handset Trends
In this short note, we look at trends in mobile design and features. We show that the steady decline in size and weight is now over, and manufacturers are focusing on adding new functions, such as d...
More ...    29 Nov 2001

Mobile Handset Market
Mobile operators’ marketing strategies are the primary determinant of the size of the market for handsets. The level of handset subsidy dramatically affects retailer sales. In this brief note, we l...
More ...    23 Nov 2001

UK Digital TV Trends
This report provides an update on the major trends in the UK digital TV market. We use a variety of consumer market research data, which all offer a consistent picture of trends in the business....
More ...    21 Nov 2001

Pay-TV Penetration
The most recent quarterly operating statistics for the UK pay-TV providers point to the continued rapid slow-down in consumer subscriptions. This short note analyses the figures and offers a forecast...
More ...    20 Nov 2001

NTL Liquidity Position
Yesterday's third quarter results were broadly in line with market expectations. Analysts have noted that subscriber numbers are stagnant and that ARPU for domestic subscribers was essentially flat,...
More ...    14 Nov 2001

ITV Digital - The Shareholders' Logic
The issues surrounding ITV Digital are complex and unclear. This report tries to unpick the tangled threads. It looks at the main financial issues and the manoeuvres with the BBC, the Office of Fair...
More ...    02 Nov 2001

Consumer Payment Companies
In this short note Chris Goodall looks at consumer payment technologies. He says that the banks and credit card companies are under no immediate threat from new technologies. Do not be confused by t...
More ...    26 Oct 2001

UK Internet Trends
This note provides an update on UK Internet trends covering the post-Christmas period. It covers usage, shopping and other online activities of the 17.7 million connected adults. The note highlights...
More ...    24 Oct 2001

European Telecoms Incumbents
In our recent report on the prospects for BT, we looked at the pressures on the company resulting from declining prices, static call volumes and increased competition from mobile. This report e...
More ...    20 Oct 2001

Time and Money
This report looks at how consumers in the UK spend their money on TMT goods and services. It tracks changes in the portion of household expenditure going to TMT. It shows that expenditure patterns a...
More ...    18 Oct 2001

Signs of Price Inflation in Mobile Call Charges
Since the research for our report on Vodafone was carried out, the UK mobile operators have made a number of changes in tariffs. We think the net impact of these changes has been to increase average...
More ...    12 Oct 2001

Global Handset Shipments
Nokia's quarterly results statement included an estimate for worldwide global handset shipments of about 390 million. Global shipments so far this year have been: Q1: 97m Q2: 91m Q3: 94m TOTAL...
More ...    09 Oct 2001

European Online Advertising
This report provides our forecasts for online advertising revenues in 2001 and 2002 in the UK, Germany and France. Our central forecasts are for a decline of 3% in online advertising in 2001 over 2...
More ...    02 Oct 2001

Vodafone - The Transition to Being a 'Value" Stock
This report looks at the prospects for mobile operators. It focuses on the UK, and Vodafone in particular, because of the high quality of data available to analysts. We think the main conclusions ap...
More ...    28 Sep 2001

3G Infrastructure
Europolitan, Vodafone's Swedish affiliate, has just announced that its expected costs to build a 3G network will be 10bn Swedish Kroner, or about 1bn Euros. This figure is exactly what we would...
More ...    19 Sep 2001

UK Regional Newspapers
In this report we look at one of the subsectors of UK media - regional newspapers - to see whether these companies would be relatively resilient in a downturn - this is the product of our review. The...
More ...    14 Sep 2001

BT and Earthlease
We note with interest the reported bids by various consortia for part or all of BT's fixed-line network.  According to press reports, the Earthlease consortium has offered £8bn for BT's local loop (i....
More ...    31 Aug 2001

BT - The Pressure Will Continue
As the various separations in the BT family draw closer, we use this report to assess the likely prospects of the core UK fixed line division, Wholesale and Retail. Our primary purpose is to pr...
More ...    18 Aug 2001

UK Mobile Operators - 'Active' Customers
The UK mobile operators have made much of their honesty in ceasing to record subscribers that have not made calls within six months. This will help analysts make a clearer judgment of how many people...
More ...    18 Aug 2001

Mobile Handset Market Global Trends and Forecast
This report provides our model for global handset sales in 2001 to 2005. We continue to forecast 375 million units shipped in 2001. The forecast for 2002 is 470 million units. Key constraints on the l...
More ...    13 Aug 2001

NTL - A False Dawn?
We look at the recent improvements in NTL performance but suggest that continued progress towards cash generation in unlikely. In our view, NTL will miss its guidance for cash flow in 2002 and 2003...
More ...    01 Aug 2001

ITV Digital
This note has been prompted by a flurry of activity in UK television media: the renaming of ONdigital (‘ITV Digital’) and its absorption into the ITV mother ship; the launch of ITV Sport, a new pay-...
More ...    29 Jul 2001

Internet Access in the UK
This report updates our thinking on the market segmentation of Internet access in the UK, one year after we buried the European portal model (Portal Strategies, May 2000). It analyses the connectiv...
More ...    18 Jul 2001

The Gross Margin from Retailing Premium Pay-TV Channels
More ...    17 Jul 2001

BSkyB's Results and the State of Pay-TV in the UK
NTL's share price slide over the last few weeks has focused attention again on the prospects for UK pay-TV. We see a clear distinction between the relative success of Sky and the continued slo...
More ...    12 Jul 2001

Marconi and DWDM
Marconi blames reduced capital expenditure budgets for its troubles. We suspect the truth is more complex. Operators and CLECs have put a lot of optical bandwidth into Europe. This looked sensible whe...
More ...    07 Jul 2001

UK B2C E-Commerce
This report updates our UK E-Commerce 2000 report from December 2000 and our European B2C E-Commerce Update of April 2001. It draws mainly on data provided by the British Market Research Bureau (BM...
More ...    06 Jul 2001

Global Handset Sales
We have analysed the latest numbers from the EMC world database.  The countries covered represented 68% of year-end 2000 global subs, so are incomplete but give a fair indication of progress so far th...
More ...    04 Jul 2001

DWDM in Europe
More ...    02 Jul 2001

BT Rights Issue Pointers
This is the first of a series of notes on the outlook for the core fixed-line businesses of BT and the other European incumbent telcos. In order to prepare investors for the coming rights issue we b...
More ...    22 Jun 2001

3G Infrastructure
Estimates of the cost of building 3G networks in large European countries have tended to cluster around $5 billion per operator. This, in addition to the embarrassing large licence fees paid to gove...
More ...    20 Jun 2001

Mobile Handsets - Sendo
Despite the bad news it offered the markets last week, Nokia still wields massive power in the handset market. Its market share goal of 40% is well within reach. This makes mobile phones a very unus...
More ...    16 Jun 2001

The US/Europe Wireless Spectrum Paradox
This note examines the US 'spectrum shortage' campaign. We think that US 3G services will be forced to use existing spectrum, rather than move to greenfield frequencies. This is highly relevant to E...
More ...    07 Jun 2001

3G Capacity - Europe, Japan
In our recent report on 3G infrastructure, we analysed published actual contract values that demonstrated that claims that large European 3G networks would cost 5bn Euros or more each were very unli...
More ...    03 Jun 2001

3G Infrastructure Sharing
The UK telecoms regulator, Oftel, has just (1st May) produced a briefing note that seems to encourage the idea of infrastructure sharing of third generation mobile networks. It defines 'infrastructu...
More ...    20 May 2001

Mobile Market Trends and Forecasts for 2001/2
Our view is that mobile operator marketing strategy was the key determinant of the rate of apparent growth in mobile penetration across Europe in 2000. We use this report to show that operator 'push...
More ...    20 May 2001

NTL Q1 2001 Results
NTL's quarterly results demonstrate an abrupt change of strategy. Customer acquisition has all but ceased. Increasing telecom prices is the new battle plan. This is sensible, but we question whether t...
More ...    20 May 2001

BSkyB Q3 2000 Results
In this report Chris Goodall carries out a brief analysis of Sky's results published today and compares them to our projections.
More ...    17 May 2001

Global Handset Market 2001
At the current CSFB tech conference in Barcelona Ericsson stated that the expected handset market for 2001 will now be at lower end of its previously stated range of 430-480m; both it & Nokia said t...
More ...    13 May 2001

May 2001 Survey Results from Oftel
Mobile Phone Users 70% of adults surveyed in May 2001 said they owned/used a mobile phone, up from 67% in February. When asked about other mobile subscribers in their household (adults and children),...
More ...    12 May 2001

Digital TV Update
We have published extensively on digital TV in the past 18 months, consistently casting doubt on the potential of TV-centric interactive platforms to (a) generate enough income for operators to repa...
More ...    09 May 2001

Pay-TV - When Will the Corner be Turned?
Chris Goodall has dissected the economics of the major pay-TV operators. He finds that if current trends continue, BSkyB, NTL and Telewest will not generate the cash to pay back their debt in the fo...
More ...    06 May 2001

ITV Licence Renewals
This note considers the so-called 'digital dividend' in light of the recent ITV licence renewals. The main conclusions are as follows: While concerns over the advertising environment dominat...
More ...    16 Apr 2001

European B2C E-Commerce Update
This report updates our July 2000 report on European B2C e-commerce, with a special focus on the UK market. We estimate 80 million Internet users in 2000, of which 20 million in the UK and German...
More ...    10 Apr 2001

UK ISPs
The UK online market is among the most mature in Europe: while strong growth continued during 2000 (60% increase in home users), this was less dramatic than in Germany and France. We expect furt...
More ...    06 Apr 2001

Microsoft .NET - The Oil Tanker Turns
Microsoft has never made much impact on the Internet. As a result, we still have a proliferation of standards and competing suppliers of the underlying technology, of which the most obvious is Java. A...
More ...    15 Mar 2001

Microsoft: Will the Giant Engulf the Mobile Phone Industry?
More ...    15 Mar 2001

Wireless - Current Ideas and Issues
We see European handset shipments down from 140-150 million in 2000 to 100 million in each of the next two years. We see worldwide handset shipments down from 410 million in 2000 to 300-odd million...
More ...    05 Mar 2001

Sonera Smart Trust
More ...    20 Feb 2001

The Digital Bomb?
More ...    15 Feb 2001

Gambling and Gaming on TV
More ...    05 Feb 2001

Wireless
More ...    15 Jan 2001

The Orange Prospectus
The Orange Prospectus
More ...    10 Jan 2001

Broadband Update
Broadband update document.
More ...    09 Jan 2001


 
 
News
 
The Financial Times

Breaking news of a radical reform of its business model (Setanta considers wholesale switch), the Financial Times suggested that the sports broadcaster would consider ditching its retail customers in order to reduce annual losses of £100m.

It would instead become a wholesale supplier of programmes, including Premier League football, to broadcasters such as British Sky Broadcasting and BT Vision, reported the FT.

Quoting from a note on Setanta’s cash crisis written by Claire Enders and Toby Syfret, the FT endorsed their view that the participation of BSkyB would be a key to the success of a scheme, “the one escape route from Setanta’s predicament”.

Allowing BSkyB to sell to customers on Setanta’s behalf would bring the benefit of Sky’s broader subscriber base and more than halve its current annual operating expenses to about £55m. As the FT pointed out: "Setanta, with 1.2m subscribers, is still far from reaching a break-even point that Ms Enders estimates at 1.9m."

Summarising their views on Setanta, Claire Enders and Toby Syfret added:  “The sum total of £125m in annual cost savings by 2011 comfortably exceeds the current estimated annual operating loss of £90m in Setanta’s UK operation. On balance, we believe that the switch to a wholesale-only model leaves Setanta with a fighting chance, and it is vital it happens quickly.”

02 Jun 2009
 
Variety

Following implementation in January of the French government's ban on prime time advertising (TV ad ban creates no windfall for webs), Variety suggested that analysts had originally predicted that the dominant commercial channels, TF1 and M6, would receive a windfall: "Sarkozy's critics argued the real aim of the scheme was to benefit his private sector friends. But things turned out differently."

Variety reported that TF1 recorded a 27% drop in first quarter advertising revenue compared to the same period last year, to $442 million. With audience levels "satisfactory," the company blamed the plunge on the deteriorating advertising market, strong downward pressure on prices, and the compensation tax. M6 reported an 11% fall in advertising revenue to $202 million in the first quarter, blaming the drop on low volumes.

François Godard was asked for his view. He said: "We're in some sort of negative feedback loop... There's less inventory on sale, and the prices are collapsing, whereas you would expect lower inventory to sustain prices." He added: "Indications are that (DTT) net revenues have increased, but we don't know for sure the exact balance of the market... There is still some fog around exactly what has happened."

22 May 2009
 
Mobile Power
Singling out James Barford's contribution as a Mobile Telecoms Analyst (50 Most Influential People in the UK Mobile Industry), Mobile Power comments:

Operators are bombarded with reports and briefings, but the Enders Analysis reports are regarded most seriously by UK senior bosses. Barford heads up Enders' commentaries on the operators and manufacturers. "His assessments on the direction of the sector are very astute and taken seriously", says one senior executive. He manages to keep a deep insight in both the manufacturers and operators to take a broader view of the industry.

 

21 May 2009
 
More ...