Enders Analysis - Publications

Published research is distributed to clients in full. For more information on subscribing to our research, please contact us. Executive Summaries of reports are available on this website six months after release. They can be seen by clicking on the link from the list below.

In order to read the Executive Summaries you will require Acrobat Reader, which is available from www.adobe.com as free downloadable software.

Recent Publications

All reports are listed here immediately on publication

PVR+ [2008-95]
Call it the Personal Video Recorder (PVR), the Digital Video Recorder (DVR), the Digital Television Recorder (DTR), or just Armageddon brought to Madison Avenue, this machine excited curiosity and ang...
More ...    10 Oct 2008

UK Classified Advertising [2008-94]
UK classified advertising, which generated £4.8 billion in 2007 (26% of total UK advertising spend), could decline to £4.2 billion in 2008 and to £3.7 billion in 2009. In our view, advertisers are acc...
More ...    09 Oct 2008

Ofcom Second Consultation on pay-TV and the root wholesale issue [2008-93e]
·         Ofcom’s second consultation document in its pay-TV investigation has focused on BSkyB’s wholesaling of designated premium film and sports channels, reviving memories of previous regulatory e...
More ...    02 Oct 2008

The second national digital radio multiplex [2008-92e]
·         The second national digital radio multiplex, awarded by Ofcom in July 2007 to 4 Digital Group, has not yet been built, despite having promised a launch within twelve months ·         Many l...
More ...    02 Oct 2008

NGA in the UK and Ofcom's Second Consultation: edging forward [2008-91e]
·         Ofcom’s second consultation document on Next Generation Access raised few new issues. Ofcom continues to favour passive access and emphasises the importance of joint investment in it ·...
More ...    01 Oct 2008

The Googlephone: nice software, shame about the hardware [2008-90e]
·         The long awaited first Android-driven handset was launched this week, and with the Google logo emblazoned on the back it has been swiftly christened the Googlephone ·         The software s...
More ...    26 Sep 2008

Mobile revenue growth to June 2008 and outlook: economic and regulatory worries [2008-89]
·         European revenue growth fell to 1.4% in the quarter, down 0.8ppts from 2.2% last quarter, driven primarily by Spain where growth fell 4.1ppts. The deterioration was despite an improvement in...
More ...    24 Sep 2008

ITV plc: economic downturn, NAR and cost reduction [2008-88e]
·         We have downgraded our short-term forecasts of TV NAR (net advertising revenue) growth from -5% to -5.75% for 2008 and from -3% to -6% for 2009 in light of the worsening economic conditions...
More ...    23 Sep 2008

UK advertising: online reality check [2008-87e]
·       Deteriorating economic conditions are impacting growth in online advertising, with display and classified especially affected, though search, which accounts for about 60% of spend, remains rel...
More ...    22 Sep 2008

Tiscali UK update – feeling the pinch [2008-86e]
·         Tiscali UK’s H1 results showed falling subscribers, revenue and margins, as the competitiveness of the UK broadband market bites ·         Margins should improve in H2, as marketing costs f...
More ...    19 Sep 2008

UK broadband market Q2 2008 [2008-85]
·         UK broadband market net additions in Q2 2008 were lower than at any point in five years. LLU data for Q3 to date suggests that a second half improvement will not be as substantial as in rece...
More ...    15 Sep 2008

UK Commercial Radio Q2 2008 [2008-84]
·         UK commercial radio revenues fell by 10.2% in Q2 2008 year-on-year to £134.2 million, the sector’s lowest quarter since 2000. In Q3 2008, commercial radio revenues are expected to be down 9%...
More ...    11 Sep 2008

Clear Channel – designs on global radio? [2008-82]
Encouraged by the way that Google has come to dominate the global market for online search advertising, Clear Channel and its rival CBS Radio are now eyeing the potential to dominate the global market...
More ...    03 Sep 2008

TV and ITV NAR to 2012 [2008-80]
2005 was an all time high for total TV net advertising revenues (NAR), even if ITV1, the leading commercial channel, had peaked the year before. 2008 is now proving particularly nasty for everyone as...
More ...    22 Aug 2008

Ofcom’s review of Openreach’s financial framework: BT one, unbundlers nil? [2008-72]
This report explains Ofcom’s ongoing review of Openreach’s financial framework, why it is important, the myriad factors involved, our view on the likely outcome and the implications for BT and unbundl...
More ...    30 Jul 2008

UK broadband market Q1 2008 [2008-67]
·         The decline in broadband market growth has accelerated, with market net additions in Q1 down on Q4 for the first time in three years. Household penetration reached 59% ·         BSkyB cont...
More ...    09 Jul 2008

UK DTV forecasts to 2017 June 2008 update [2008-62]
Digital TV growth has consistently exceeded expectations since the launch of Freeview in October 2002, while 2007 saw a record annual increase in digital TV homes reception from 72.0% to 82.3%. These...
More ...    23 Jun 2008

Mobile revenue growth: March 2008 quarter and outlook [2008-60]
·         European revenue growth improved by a whole percentage point this quarter, jumping to 2.2% from 1.2% last quarter. Most of this (0.7 percentage points) was due to a reduced regulatory impact...
More ...    19 Jun 2008

UK Commercial Radio Q1 2008 [2008-59]
·         UK commercial radio revenues increased by 6.7% in Q1 2008 year-on-year, resulting in four consecutive quarters of growth for the first time since 2004 ·         Commercial radio’s share of...
More ...    18 Jun 2008

Orange threat to Canal+ targets [2008-55]
Canal+ is entering a critical phase of growth following the recent merger with its former rival Télévision Par Satellite (TPS). Vivendi has set short term guidance targets for 2010 of 11.5 million sub...
More ...    10 Jun 2008

Virgin Radio – new owner, new name, new beginning [2008-54]
After a protracted offer period, Scottish Media Group has finally sold its national commercial radio business ‘Virgin Radio’ to Bennett, Coleman & Company Limited for £53.2 million cash. The sale does...
More ...    10 Jun 2008

UK mobile user survey [2008-53]
The attached report contains the 2008 edition of our regular review of UK mobile user trends, based on a survey of 1,000 adults. We look at handset ownership, replacement trends, handset manufacturer...
More ...    09 Jun 2008

Privatising Radios One and Two: how to kill commercial radio with kindness [2008-51]
The privatisation of the BBC’s two national music radio networks – Radio One and Radio Two – is in the news again and is being proposed by certain commentators as a potential solution to the current p...
More ...    04 Jun 2008

Triple play in France [2008-50]
This presentation reports on the triple play of broadband, full telephony and DSL-delivered IPTV in France, the leading market in Europe for the triple play. Of France’s 16.2 million broadband subscri...
More ...    02 Jun 2008

Recorded Music and Music Publishing [2008-39]
The recorded music market decline continued without pause in 2007, with global sales down an estimated 11% in value. Physical and internet piracy continue to drive the CD sales decline, along with sub...
More ...    28 Apr 2008

Ofcom HD Ready to Go [2008-38]
The Digital Dividend resulting from analogue switch-off and digital switchover (DSO) is shaping up into Ofcom’s spectrum sale of the century. It comes at a time when the TV broadcasting industry is co...
More ...    25 Apr 2008

Executive Summaries

Executive Summaries are made available for download six months after publication

French broadband: down to three players, for how long? [2008-83e]
·         Just three players now account for most French broadband connections: Orange’s DSL market share is closing on 50%, Iliad’s rose to 25% from consolidation with Alice, while SFR’s dropped to 2...
More ...    05 Sep 2008

H3G H1 2008 results and datacard economics [2008-81e]
·         H3G Group’s H1 2008 results showed static revenue and EBITDA slipping back into negative territory, neither of which bode well for the company’s target of being EBIT positive next year ·...
More ...    02 Sep 2008

Finding a buyer for Spain's Digital+ [2008-79e]
·         Prisa, the 98% owner of Sogecable, has put Spain’s leading pay-TV platform Digital+ up for sale in order to make a large reduction in its debts ·         Whilst maintaining a stable EBITDA...
More ...    14 Aug 2008

Virgin Media Q2 2008 results: continuing improvement but not yet firing on all cylinders [2008-78e]
·         VMed’s Q2 results represent a further step in the recovery of the business, with fixed line churn continuing to fall and operating cash flow (OCF) continuing to grow, helped by a dramatic im...
More ...    11 Aug 2008

ITV 2008 interim results: battening down the hatches [2008-77e]
·         ITV interim results for 2008 confirmed expectations of a sharp downturn in H1 profits combined with dire predictions for net advertising revenues in the second half of the year, although ITV...
More ...    08 Aug 2008

Carphone Warehouse Q1 trading update: weathering the storms [2008-76e]
·         Carphone Warehouse had a solid quarter on the distribution side given the current environment, with 6-7% underlying organic retail growth and roughly stable like-for-like figures ·...
More ...    06 Aug 2008

Sky FY 2008 results: sound progress [2008-75e]
·         Another strong quarter of pay-TV and Sky+ growth in the face of a severe retail downturn makes us more confident that Sky will achieve its target of 10 million DTH pay-TV subscribers by the...
More ...    05 Aug 2008

BT FY 2008-09 Q1 results: wholesale hit compounded by weak performance at Global Services [2008-74e]
·         BT’s Q1 results were weak, with declining like-for-like revenue and EBITDA, although cash flow grew strongly thanks to a lull in capex ·         We are increasingly sceptical of the abili...
More ...    04 Aug 2008

Web TV: Project Kangaroo heads to the Competition Commission [2008-73e]
·         Project Kangaroo, the planned joint venture between BBC Worldwide, ITV and C4 to pool archival resources and supply video-on-demand (VOD) to UK retail and wholesale customers, was referred b...
More ...    31 Jul 2008

Vodafone June 2008 KPIs: economic woes... or competitive struggles? [2008-71e]
·         Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth dropped by two full percentage points in the quarter to June 2008; Spain plummeted from +5.1% to -2.5%, but the UK and Italy’s underlying growth also...
More ...    23 Jul 2008

Setanta facing the credit crunch [2008-70e]
·         The TV advertising sector is haemorrhaging in the economic downturn, but troubles could also be brewing in the pay-TV sector. Sky still looks secure, but Setanta appears more exposed in its...
More ...    18 Jul 2008

BT Next Generation Access: a one billion pound toe in the water [2008-69e]
·         BT’s announcement of a project to extend fibre beyond the exchange for some existing homes as well as newly built ones is good PR, a useful regulatory gambit, and offers the prospect of rega...
More ...    16 Jul 2008

Tiscali UK - where now? [2008-68e]
·         The current process for a sale of Tiscali Spa in whole or part appears to be breaking down, just as the prospects for standalone ISPs in the UK are becoming less certain ·         A triple...
More ...    14 Jul 2008

Cable & Wireless/Thus: a deal worth doing [2008-66e]
·         In our view the potential for synergies from an acquisition of Thus by C&W, though more limited than might be supposed, would still have a significant impact on the combined entity at the EB...
More ...    02 Jul 2008

France Télécom premium TV play [2008-65e]
·         Having acquired national broadcast TV rights for premium content, France Télécom’s Orange TV will launch on satellite on 3rd July and introduce subscription football and film and series serv...
More ...    30 Jun 2008

Competition concerns for the TNS-GfK merger [2008-64e]
·         We expect the TNS-GfK merger proposal to be examined closely by the European Commission, and anticipate competition concerns to be raised in the market for television audience measurement (T...
More ...    30 Jun 2008

DAB radio - nice platform, shame about the take-up [2008-63e]
·         Consumer take-up both of DAB receiver hardware and of listening to digital-only radio stations has been slow, in spite of considerable investment in content and in transmission infrastructur...
More ...    24 Jun 2008

French anti-piracy law clears another hurdle [2008-61e]
·         France’s Council of State gave the green light to the draft law on ‘Creation and the Internet’, to combat internet piracy of content. If it completes the final hurdle of adoption by the Parl...
More ...    20 Jun 2008

UK advertising: internet to overtake TV this year [2008-58e]
·         We expect UK online advertising to reach £3.56 billion this year overtaking TV ad spend which we estimate will be £3.39 billion, making the internet the UK’s largest single advertising mediu...
More ...    17 Jun 2008

Iliad buys Alice [2008-57e]
·         Iliad is to recover the No. 2 spot on the French broadband market, behind France Télécom’s Orange, after acquiring Alice, ending Telecom Italia’s ill fated five-year French venture ·...
More ...    13 Jun 2008

Apple iPhone 3G: faster... cheaper... slimmer margins [2008-56e]
·         The much anticipated iPhone 3G is due to launch in July; it will include 3G and GPS, but will otherwise be quite similar to the old model, and is still a little off-the-pace in feature terms...
More ...    12 Jun 2008

ITV outperformance in a weakening advertising market [2008-52e]
·         The worsening economic outlook has caused us to lower our forecasts of TV net advertising revenue (NAR) growth in 2008 to -2.5%, although there is still little visibility beyond H1, which is...
More ...    06 Jun 2008

Vodafone 2007/08 full year results and outlook: solid prospects, but distractions remain [2008-49e]
·         Vodafone’s Q4 revenues were healthy if a little weak, with underlying growth slowing from 2.0% to 1.8%, but the improvement in Germany is very welcome ·         The company guidance for 200...
More ...    30 May 2008

Cable & Wireless full year results to March 2008: International still weak but continuing progress in the UK [2008-48e]
·         International performance continued to be weak apart from Macau, although well within EBITDA guidance. Turnaround in Jamaica remains a significant challenge ·         The UK business (EA&U...
More ...    29 May 2008

Regionals at the cliff edge [2008-47e]
·         Regional publishers are reporting steep downturns in advertising revenues in the early weeks of 2008. If the trend continues throughout 2008, print advertising could drop £250 million (9%) t...
More ...    21 May 2008

BT FY 2007-08 Q4 results: continued pressure on underlying performance [2008-46e]
·         BT’s Q4 results were a welcome improvement on Q3, with better growth in revenue, consistent growth in EBITDA and strong growth in cash flow ·         But revenue growth was helped by curre...
More ...    20 May 2008

Sky Picnic on Ice [2008-45e]
·         Ofcom has linked Sky's plans for a pay service on DTT (Picnic) to its wider investigation into the UK market for pay-TV, announcing on 13th May that it will issue its next statement on bot...
More ...    14 May 2008

Virgin Media Q1 2008 results: turning point in prospect [2008-44e]
·         VMed’s Q1 results represent a further step in the recovery of the core cable business, with markedly lower churn and strong growth in operating cash flow (OCF) ·         But OCF performance...
More ...    13 May 2008

HD now on Freesat [2008-43e]
·         The BBC-ITV Freesat venture, launched on 6th May, is the public service response to Sky’s free satellite service. Once fully up and running in 2009, Freesat aims to match Sky with 200 digita...
More ...    09 May 2008

BT Total Broadband Anywhere: Fusion enhanced, but still nowhere [2008-42e]
·         BT’s new mobile product, BT Total Broadband Anywhere, is sensibly being sold as an optional add-on to its broadband line up, maximising the cross-selling opportunity ·         The product...
More ...    09 May 2008

Sky Q3 FY 2008 results: strong fixed line growth, but at a price [2008-41e]
·         Sky Q3 FY 2008 results confirm the strength of the core pay-TV business, where the marketing strategy is now focused on subscriber quality rather than pure numbers. Sky+ boxes continue to...
More ...    06 May 2008

Vodafone UK data pricing: free for £5 a month [2008-40e]
·         Vodafone UK has announced a tariff refresh that includes ‘free’ mobile browsing with all of its new contract plans ·         However, a careful comparison of the old and new tariffs revea...
More ...    02 May 2008

Carphone Warehouse March quarter trading update and analyst day [2008-37e]
·         Carphone Warehouse had a solid quarter, and its expectation of a currency-aided 9-10% growth rate in 2008/2009 distribution revenue looks achievable, as does guidance of 4-5% growth in fix...
More ...    25 Apr 2008

Tiscali UK: attractive assets, but many bidders? [2008-36e]
·         Tiscali SpA has publicly invited bids for its businesses, the largest of which is the UK’s fourth largest ISP, a key player with 12% broadband market share ·         While there are a l...
More ...    24 Apr 2008

Iliad: consolidation, 3G licence and fibre [2008-35e]
·         Iliad will be challenged to meet its target of a steady EBITDA margin of 36% in 2008 despite further cuts in mobile termination charges due to the continued drift of the subscriber mix to hi...
More ...    18 Apr 2008

BT management changes: exit Ben Verwaayen, enter Ian Livingston [2008-34e]
BT announced on 8th April that Ian Livingston, currently CEO of BT Retail, will replace Ben Verwaayen as group CEO on 1st June. The Managing Director of BT Retail’s Consumer division, Gavin Patterson,...
More ...    10 Apr 2008

H3G H1 2007 results: slow improvements, unreasonable expectations [2008-33e]
·         H3G Group’s growth continued to slow in H2 2007, and it is now growing at just 6%, versus 10% 6 months ago, with falling ARPU combining with static subscriber net additions ·         It has...
More ...    09 Apr 2008

GCap Media: one previous owner, needs serious attention [2008-32]
This report examines the proposed acquisition of GCap Media by Global Radio for £375 million which, if successful, will signal the end of a commercial radio giant that, in its brief three-year existen...
More ...    08 Apr 2008

UK broadband market Q4 2007 [2008-31]
·         Broadband market growth continues to fall and was below 20% for the first time in Q4 2007. Household penetration hit 56%. BSkyB dominated net additions, increasing its market share to 7.8% a...
More ...    04 Apr 2008

Mobile revenue growth: December 2007 quarter and outlook [2008-30]
·         Reported revenue growth among operators in the top 5 European markets continues to be adversely affected by the regulatory ‘triple whammy’ of regulation (termination, roaming and Bersani), w...
More ...    01 Apr 2008

Mobile advertising: progress on a small scale [2008-29e]
·         Mobile advertising has progressed well in recent months in terms of expanding trials, building experience and case study evidence, and selling the medium to advertisers ·         However, t...
More ...    28 Mar 2008

UK Commercial Radio Q4 2007 [2008-28]
·         UK commercial radio revenues increased by 7.1% in Q4 2007 year-on-year, driven by strong growth from national advertisers, while full-year 2007 revenues increased by 2.8% to £598.2 million...
More ...    27 Mar 2008

Can TF1 meet its 2012 Ebitda target? [2008-27e]
·         To encourage investors, TF1 announced continued diversification of group revenues from reliance on the flagship TF1 channel, and an increase in group Ebitda from 16% in 2007 to 20% in ‘4-5 y...
More ...    18 Mar 2008

BT Retail telephony pricing: ringing the changes [2008-26e]
·         BT Retail’s fixed-line telephony packages are now amongst the most attractive in the market following a third price change in two years. Attractive headline prices have been balanced by less...
More ...    11 Mar 2008

ITV FY 2007 results: turnaround in a fog [2008-25e]
·         Disappointing headline figures showing a 35% drop in pre-tax profits largely reflect exceptional and non-core items, in particular the fallout from the phone-in scandals that occurred in 200...
More ...    07 Mar 2008

Web TV: much hoopla, little moola [2008-24e]
·         Early figures from the BBC show promising take-up of iPlayer, its web TV application to deliver BBC TV shows. More than 2 million people watched an average of just over one show per week in...
More ...    04 Mar 2008

Virgin Media Q4 2007 results: cable OCF growing but still fragile [2008-23e]
·         Growth in ARPU is reinforcing the impact of improving cable subscriber growth, but revenue remains in decline, year-on-year ·         The synergy project is reducing costs sufficiently to e...
More ...    03 Mar 2008

France Télécom’s fixed line revenue returns to growth [2008-22e]
·         Following years of decline, France Télécom’s revenue from its fixed line business (‘Home France’) rose €248 million in 2007. Rising retail and wholesale broadband revenue (plus WLR) more tha...
More ...    27 Feb 2008

The internet... on your mobile? [2008-21e]
·         Dramatic growth in datacards and Blackberry users has fuelled excitement that the mobile internet is finally arriving to the mass market, even though these remain largely business devices ·...
More ...    26 Feb 2008

The Setanta Question [2008-20]
Setanta is the subject of takeover speculation and this report considers the opportunity, the challenge, and the risks that a purchase represents. Setanta's ownership of live televised rights to premi...
More ...    25 Feb 2008

Yahoo!: acquisition by Microsoft most probable outcome [2008-19e]
·         Microsoft’s $44.6 billion offer for Yahoo! represents the software giant’s last opportunity to compete with Google in the rapidly growing market for online advertising, which is forecast to...
More ...    15 Feb 2008

Sky ITV Appeal? [2008-18]
This report examines whether Sky has grounds to appeal the decision by the Competition Commission requiring Sky to partly divest its ITV stake. The deadline for Sky's decision on appeal is 25th Februa...
More ...    14 Feb 2008

Yell shortfall shines spotlight on local advertising [2008-17e]
·         Yell announced this week that full year sales growth (to March 2008) in its UK operations would be 2%, sharply down from the previously forecast 3%, due to “toughening market conditions” sin...
More ...    13 Feb 2008

French football rights auction outcome [2008-16e]
·         France’s football rights auction for the four seasons starting in 2008 ended with a second round on 6th February. Canal+ will keep most rights, while France Télécom picks up some live rights...
More ...    13 Feb 2008

BT FY 2007-08 Q3 results: under pressure [2008-15e]
·         Increasing loss of retail call market share and continuing decline in wholesale revenue stunted growth in group revenue, which would have dropped slightly without help from acquisitions ·...
More ...    12 Feb 2008

Sky Q2 2007/8 results: record product sales, but concerns on fixed line costs [2008-14e]
·         Sky's Q2 results show continuing strong growth across all parts of its multi-product business, with bumper product sales, up by almost a third year-on-year ·         Although headline gross...
More ...    08 Feb 2008

Fibre in France [2008-13]
France is the first major European market where a large scale fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) deployment is under way. Numericable and France Télécom, as well as unbundlers Iliad and Neuf Cegetel, are launch...
More ...    06 Feb 2008

Canal+ subscriptions disappoint [2008-12e]
·         Vivendi’s preliminary results for FY 2007 show weak subscription growth by France’s leading pay-TV operator Canal+ despite the existence of special positive factors. Strengthening free-to-ai...
More ...    05 Feb 2008

Vodafone December quarter KPIs: improved performance, and prospects good for 2008 [2008-11e]
·         Vodafone’s European performance was very solid, with underlying growth of 1.9%, up from 1.7% last quarter, with some very encouraging moderation to price cuts in Germany and elsewhere ·...
More ...    01 Feb 2008

Apple Q1 FY2008 results [2008-10e]
·         Powered by strong computer sales at Apple stores and surging European sales (and the weaker dollar), Apple’s dollar revenue for Q1 FY2008 rose 35% year-on-year to $9.6 billion, exceeding gui...
More ...    31 Jan 2008

O2 UK - iPhone tariff price cut [2008-09e]
·         O2 this week announced changes to its contract tariffs; however, these will have limited impact for most of their subscribers, and the reductions to their data pricing only bring them into l...
More ...    30 Jan 2008

France Télécom’s calculated posturing on the football rights auction [2008-08e]
·         In an apparent change of direction, France Télécom said it would consider bidding for all the 12 packages of French televised football rights at the auction to be held tomorrow, 31st January...
More ...    30 Jan 2008

The Future of Digital Radio - is it 'DAB'? [2008-07]
This report considers recent activity concerning the radio sector’s Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB) platform and examines the implications, particularly in view of the recent establishment of a gover...
More ...    28 Jan 2008

Seesaw TV advertising prospects in 2008 [2008-06e]
·         Chill global winds in the financial world have triggered gloomy predictions in the City of around 2% negative nominal UK TV NAR (net advertising revenues) growth in 2008. In general, the TV...
More ...    25 Jan 2008

Valuing Chrysalis music publishing assets [2008-05e]
·         Chrysalis, the music publishing company, is for sale and expressions of interest have been received from EMI Music Publishing, Warner Chappell, SonyATV as well as a small number of private e...
More ...    24 Jan 2008

Carphone Warehouse December quarter: growth increasingly challenging, but downside protected [2008-04e]
·         Distribution growth improved considerably (retail grew 13% versus 8% last quarter), with strong contract sales more than counteracting a relatively weak prepay performance ·         Given t...
More ...    22 Jan 2008

News Corporation takes its second bite at German pay-TV [2008-03e]
·         Unity Media sold its 14.58% stake in German pay TV operator Premiere to News Corporation at the start of 2008, prompting speculation of a full takeover by News Corporation later in the year...
More ...    21 Jan 2008

Will Google buy Yell? [2008-02e]
·         Rumours that Google was acquiring Yell emerged at the end of last week, but we doubt the search giant would be interested in purchasing a traditional media company, particularly not one pred...
More ...    17 Jan 2008

GCap Media - the end of the road [2008-01e]
·     Since its creation in 2005, GCap Media has singularly failed to deliver its shareholders either a return on their investment or a coherent, strategic vision of its future, rendering the company...
More ...    11 Jan 2008

H3G/T-Mobile network sharing: joining at the hip [2007-117e]
·     H3G and T-Mobile have agreed to fully share their 3G networks, with their networks being roughly doubled to a combined 13,000 sites over the next two years ·     The cost savings are significan...
More ...    20 Dec 2007

French football auction: Canal+ won’t pay more for rights [2007-116e]
·     To draw in competitors to Canal+, French football Ligue 1 broadcasting rights are being tendered in 12 lots, offered in three sequential auctions (non-premium Fans matches, Premium, highlights)...
More ...    20 Dec 2007

UK DTV Homes Platform Forecasts: 2003-2017 [2007-118]
Just as digital switchover (DSO) has finally begun, TV broadband convergence is beginning to make its mark in the UK following the launch of hybrid broadcast reception and IPTV services over DSL. In t...
More ...    20 Dec 2007

UK broadband market Q3 2007 [2007-115]
·     At 30th September 2007 there were approximately 15.1 million fixed broadband subscribers in the UK and residential broadband penetration was approximately 54%. BT remains the country’s largest b...
More ...    19 Dec 2007

Emap – can't get used to losing you [2007-114e]
·     Emap’s sale last week of its consumer magazine and radio divisions to H. Bauer, the German privately-held publisher, for £1.14 billion is nothing short of miraculous given declining consumption...
More ...    14 Dec 2007

Iliad and 3G – the black hole beckons [2007-113e]
·     Iliad is getting ever closer to securing the French 4th 3G licence on terms with which it is happy, with progress slow but seemingly inevitable, and a licence award likely in H2 2008 followed by...
More ...    13 Dec 2007

Google, the US 700MHz auction, and futurology [2007-112e]
·         Google has announced that it will be bidding for 700MHz spectrum in the US, after the FCC adopted most of the ‘open access’ provisions for which it lobbied ·         In our view Google is s...
More ...    04 Dec 2007

TF1: unchallenged leadership in an uncertain market [2007-111e]
·         After two quarters that have fallen short of earlier guidance, TF1 Q3 results have at last met more subdued investor expectations of marginal growth in flagship TF1 channel advertising reven...
More ...    30 Nov 2007

Mobile revenue growth: September 2007 quarter and outlook [2007-110]
European mobile revenue growth dropped again to 1.4% from 2.8% last quarter, although the roaming cuts mandated by the EU do approximately explain the drop Vodafone had a poor quarter, with gro...
More ...    28 Nov 2007

Cable & Wireless half year results to September 2007: International weak but encouraging progress in UK [2007-109e]
·         International performance was hit by problems in Jamaica and was weak generally except for Panama and Macau ·         The UK business is continuing to improve ahead of guidance, as we expec...
More ...    15 Nov 2007

Vodafone 2007/08 interim results: guidance up, but performance down [2007-108e]
·         Vodafone’s European revenue growth has dropped again in the latest quarter, both relative to the prior quarter and its competitors, with Spain performing particularly poorly ·         Its i...
More ...    14 Nov 2007

BT FY 2007/2008 Q2 results: reasonable overall EBITDA performance but concerns on 21CN remain [2007-107e]
Overall growth in revenue and EBITDA remained adequate, in spite of a poor quarter at BT Wholesale We remain optimistic that improving performance at Global Services will offset the effects of...
More ...    13 Nov 2007

Virgin Media Q3 2007 results: some better news but sustained improvement in cash flow growth remains distant [2007-106e]
Telecoms subscriber growth has improved sharply but this has been achieved at the expense of ARPU growth; revenue continues to decline Cost savings from the synergy project are at last generating c...
More ...    09 Nov 2007

Waiting for Googlephone [2007-105e]
Google has announced that, alongside other industry partners, it is to create ‘Android’, a new operating system for mobile phones which is designed to facilitate the design and use of 3rd party ap...
More ...    09 Nov 2007

Sky FY 2008 Q1 results: strong underlying performance [2007-104e]
·         The pay-TV business is performing well, helped by the ‘halo’ effect from broadband; we view the unexpectedly sharp drop in operating profit as a temporary result of record quarterly take-up...
More ...    06 Nov 2007

H3G’s Skypephone: cheap minutes, but cheaper handset [2007-103e]
H3G has launched the ‘Skypephone’, a Skype-branded phone with a free Skype VoIP service fully integrated into the handset While VoIP is often portrayed as being low cost, the minutes are actually c...
More ...    31 Oct 2007

Apple Q4 FY2007 results: can the iPod shine over Apple’s Christmas? [2007-101e]
School’s back and strong computer sales drove Apple’s Q4 FY2007 revenue to $6.22 billion, up 28.5% year-on-year Computer sales growth is being helped by Apple’s expanding retail presence at home an...
More ...    30 Oct 2007

ITV NAR forecasts, 2007-2012 [2007-102]
ITV plc set itself the annual target of 3-5% revenue growth up to 2010, then 5% to 2012, in its strategy presentation on September 12th 2007. Within the overall business growth target, ITV set itself...
More ...    30 Oct 2007

Mobile revenue growth: June 2007 quarter and outlook [2007-100]
Aggregate mobile service revenue growth in the June quarter was 2.7%, down almost 1%, although this is mostly explicable by regulated price cuts Service revenue growth has however been slowly decl...
More ...    24 Oct 2007

Digital Radio Switchover: somewhere over the rainbow? [2007-99]
For the radio industry, the transition from an analogue broadcast system to a digital one is not going particularly smoothly. Data from the latest RAJAR audience survey, the first to track platform us...
More ...    19 Oct 2007

UK Residential Broadband Market: the guests have arrived, but is the party almost over? [2007-98]
This report examines recent developments in the UK residential market for broadband internet access. We consider the outlook over the next five years for total market volume and market shares.
More ...    18 Oct 2007

BT and FON [2007-97e]
BT is now offering its broadband customers the option of joining the FON network, allowing them to use the FON worldwide network of Wi-Fi hotspots FON hotspots are formed by allowing access to priv...
More ...    15 Oct 2007

Carphone Warehouse trading update [2007-96e]
The distribution side was slightly weak again, but the prospects for the Christmas quarter are much better, with the iPhone exclusivity a big help even if its sales prove to be weak It is difficult...
More ...    11 Oct 2007

No Picnic for Sky? [2007-95e]
On 4th October Ofcom issued its consultation document on Sky’s proposals to provide a broader and more comprehensive range of programming by replacing its three free-to-air channels on Freeview with...
More ...    11 Oct 2007

O2 Broadband: worth the wait? [2007-94e]
O2’s new broadband offer is sensibly pitched as high quality at a reasonable price, but its reported target of 1 million users by 2010 looks ambitious We forecast somewhat less than half of this (4...
More ...    09 Oct 2007

Competition Commission view about the Sky stake in ITV [2007-93e]
BSkyB’s 17.9% shareholding in ITV is likely to lead to a substantial lessening of competition in the all-TV market, according to the provisional findings of the Competition Commission (CC) investiga...
More ...    03 Oct 2007

Next Generation Access in the UK: could Sky and Virgin Media be the real losers? [2007-92e]
Ofcom’s consultation document on Next Generation Access indicates a desire to avoid regulatory impediments to investment, not to force BT to act The desire to encourage BT to implement an NGA may w...
More ...    02 Oct 2007

UK broadband market Q2 2007 [2007-91]
At 30th June 2007 there were approximately 14.5 million fixed broadband subscribers in the UK and residential broadband penetration was approximately 52% BSkyB, BT and Carphone Warehouse all had u...
More ...    01 Oct 2007

Blyk: easy money? [2007-90e]
A new MVNO, Blyk, launched in the UK this week offering limited free texts and voice minutes in exchange for receiving advertising While the offer is attractive for many prepay users looking to sav...
More ...    28 Sep 2007

UK spectrum withdrawal: Ofcom wants it back [2007-89e]
Ofcom is proposing taking back and re-auctioning over 30% of Vodafone and O2’s 2G spectrum as part of more general plans for ‘refarming’ 2G spectrum to allow its use for 3G services This move would...
More ...    27 Sep 2007

UK Commercial Radio Consolidation [2007-88]
Further consolidation could lie ahead for the UK commercial radio sector. EMAP is expected to offer its radio assets for sale and Scottish Media Group plans to divest Virgin Radio. The battleground is...
More ...    20 Sep 2007

iPhone in the UK: over here, overhyped and overpriced [2007-87e]
The Apple iPhone will finally be available in the UK on 9th November, sold exclusively through Apple, O2 and Carphone Warehouse, and costing a hefty £269 when bought with a minimum £35 a month 18 mo...
More ...    19 Sep 2007

Emap Sale and Consumer Magazine Trends [2007-86]
Emap’s decision in July 2007 to sell off the entire group – consumer magazines, radio and business-to-business (B2B) – as a whole or in parts, provides the context for our examination of the state of...
More ...    14 Sep 2007

Apple’s iPods: reaching maturity? [2007-85e]
Apple revealed an updated iPod range to stimulate demand in the run up to the all important Christmas quarter, when iPod revenues typically account for 50% of Apple’s totals Key to the new range is...
More ...    11 Sep 2007

Neuf Cegetel [2007-84]
This report presents our analysis of Neuf Cegetel alongside that of close rival Iliad (which trades under the Free brand). Neuf and Iliad are France’s two leading unbundlers, are both quoted on the Eu...
More ...    11 Sep 2007

'The Broadband Warehouse?' [2007-83e]
Carphone Warehouse is seeking to position itself as an impartial guide to the broadband products from 6 different brands, although it is not selling the product sets of BT, Sky or Tiscali While the...
More ...    07 Sep 2007

The CRR dividend - what dividend? [2007-82e]
The Office of Fair Trading (OFT) has confirmed receipt of a formal request from ITV plc for a review of the Contract Rights Renewal (CRR) remedy and will announce its decision whether to proceed bef...
More ...    05 Sep 2007

Apple TV in the UK [2007-81e]
• Apple has now launched downloads of 28 US TV series in the UK, hoping to drive demand for portable video watching on iPod or for home viewing via Apple TV • In the US, where Apple has made TV shows...
More ...    29 Aug 2007

H3G HI 2007 results - Slow growth [2007-80e]
• H3G’s revenue growth has slowed significantly, with H1 revenue flat on the previous half, driven by steady churn and a reduced investment in customer acquisition • The Group was EBITDA positive on a...
More ...    24 Aug 2007

C4 and Digital Diversification [2007-79]
Channel 4's digital diversification strategy is a topic we first considered in 2002. At that time, we urged Channel 4 to husband its resources to meet its public service remit and maintain audiences o...
More ...    15 Aug 2007

Disposal headaches at Trinity [2007-78e]
Trinity Mirror’s 2007 interim results announcement produced the shock news of an expected £150 million shortfall in its disposals of two regional newspaper divisions and its sports addition TM is n...
More ...    10 Aug 2007

Virgin Media Q2 2007 results: cash flow down; outlook for top line growth remains dubious [2007-77e]
The loss of Sky basic channels, strong competition and a maturing broadband market have combined to weaken Virgin Media’s top line results sufficiently to cause cash flow to decline The basic pay T...
More ...    09 Aug 2007

Virgin Mobile price increases [2007-76e]
Virgin Media has recently upped its mobile prices both within the ‘quad-play’ and on the Virgin Mobile standard prepay product We believe that the dramatic reduction in value of the quad-play offer...
More ...    03 Aug 2007

BT FY 2007/08 Q1 results: more clarity required on 21CN [2007-75e]
Growth in revenue and EBITDA was adequate but a nasty surge in capex hit cash flow Progress at Global Services should still offset the effects of competition and a maturing broadband market until 2...
More ...    02 Aug 2007

Sogecable's diverging free and pay-TV results [2007-74e]
Rising audiences for Cuatro in a booming TV advertising market have unexpectedly lifted Sogecable earnings in H1 2007, encouraging confidence that Cuatro will achieve breakeven in 2008, if not in 20...
More ...    02 Aug 2007

Apple Q3 2006-07 results [2007-73e]
Apple reported strong revenue growth for Q3 2006/07, up 23.8% year on year to $5.41 billion, powered mainly by strong computer sales iPod revenue returned to growth on higher unit sales, but has no...
More ...    01 Aug 2007

Fastweb-Swisscom: Towards a Strategic Review [2007-72]
Swisscom's recent acquisition of 82% of Fastweb, among the largest altnets in Europe, provides the context for a much-needed strategic review. Fastweb is the principal competitor to Telecom Italia in...
More ...    01 Aug 2007

Carphone Warehouse: fixed line momentum regained, but distribution has a shakier start [2007-71e]
The distribution business was slightly weak despite good like-for-like store sales, due to the lower quality ‘off-the-page’ newspaper advertisement business being successfully cut back by the mobile...
More ...    31 Jul 2007

Sky FY 2007 results [2007-70e]
The release of FY 2007 results on 27th July 2007 confirmed the strong performance of Sky and the success of its multi-product and service strategy over the past year, as reported in its trading upda...
More ...    30 Jul 2007

BBC iPlayer: forever niche? [2007-69]
On 27th July the BBC will open access to the iPlayer to UK internet users, en route to a hard launch later this summer. This PC-based application allows the user to download BBC TV content after broad...
More ...    26 Jul 2007

Mobile TV: Brussels gets bossy [2007-68e]
The European Commission has backed DVB-H as the common standard for mobile TV in an attempt to boost investment and rollout of services However, with the key issues of limited spectrum availabilit...
More ...    25 Jul 2007

Royalty regime for online music services in the UK [2007-67e]
The UK recorded music industry now has certainty on the royalty regime for online music services until 2009 as a result of the ruling issued last week by the UK Copyright Tribunal, with little impac...
More ...    24 Jul 2007

Trinity sale: round one to DMGT [2007-66e]
Trinity Mirror has sold 39 of the more than 130 regional newspapers on the block, and looks set to generate £550-£570 million from its disposals by the end of Q3 2007, just shy of its £600 million t...
More ...    23 Jul 2007

Vodafone June 07 Q1 results [2007-65e]
Vodafone’s European operations revenue growth dropped, but not as much as various regulatory interventions would have warranted, implying a strong operational performance Reported European revenue...
More ...    19 Jul 2007

Recorded Music: the bad news continues [2007-64e]
US music shoppers continue to shun the CD, whilst increasing digital music sales are not filling the gap – we estimate the market’s volume was down 10.3% in H1 2007 year-over-year, in keeping with o...
More ...    18 Jul 2007

Mobile revenue growth: March 2007 quarter and outlook [2007-63]
Mobile service revenue growth in the top five European markets was 3.6%, a decline of 0.5pps from the previous quarter, although this was substantially driven by the Bersani Decree in Italy outlawin...
More ...    13 Jul 2007

BSkyB trading update to 30 June 2007 [2007-62e]
Another record quarter of subscriber growth testifies again to the strengths of Sky’s marketing strategy and its successful entry into the telecommunications arena. The target of 10 million subscrib...
More ...    12 Jul 2007

Free’s TV Perso: another first for Iliad [2007-61e]
True to its reputation for innovation, France’s No. 2 ISP Free has launched TV Perso, a user-generated video-on-demand service, to its 1.5 million TV-over-DSL subscribers. Users will contribute uplo...
More ...    11 Jul 2007

Radio: Last.fm is not the problem [2007-60e]
Audio webcasting services such as Last.fm, bought in May by CBS for $280 million, have built sizable audiences by offering greater choice and personalisation than traditional radio Pure-play intern...
More ...    10 Jul 2007

Apple iPhone: revolutionising the mobile business? [2007-59e]
Apple has at least revolutionised two aspects of the mobile business: getting customers to queue overnight for a handset, and selling ‘contracts-in-a-box’, neither of which are likely to catch on in...
More ...    09 Jul 2007

Channel 4: radio ambitions aim too high [2007-58e]
Ofcom has awarded the UK’s second national commercial digital radio multiplex to Channel 4 Television, having rejected a competing bid from National Grid Wireless Channel 4 will launch ten new digi...
More ...    06 Jul 2007

Sky pay DTT plans on ice [2007-57e]
Ofcom’s decision to hold a consultation on Sky’s pay DTT proposal will prevent its launch before Q1 2008 at the earliest and could be delayed to 2010 if Ofcom’s current investigation of the UK pay T...
More ...    29 Jun 2007

Emap - pick up the pieces [2007-56]
Emap, the consumer and business-to-business (B2B) publisher, appears ripe for a break-up. This report examines the health of the group's principal consumer magazine and radio assets, as well as its B2...
More ...    28 Jun 2007

Classified advertising in the UK [2007-55]
This presentation expands on our report on Classified Advertising in Print and Online [2006-58], by examining the online classified market segments of recruitment, property and automotive, and their l...
More ...    22 Jun 2007

Carphone Warehouse: distribution steady but fixed line telecoms not yet out of the woods [2007-54e]
The distribution business had a strong year, marred by a longer than usual Christmas hangover in the last quarter, but the early signs for the new financial year are promising The fixed line teleco...
More ...    11 Jun 2007

European internet advertising trends [2007-53]
Broadband penetration and Internet usage in continental European countries are catching up with the US and UK, but consumer e-commerce and internet advertising spend still massively lag behind. Online...
More ...    05 Jun 2007

UK broadband and telephony Q1 2007 [2007-52]
50% of UK households now have a broadband line installed, but market growth is dropping. Rolling 12-month net additions were below three million for the first time since Q3 2004 BSkyB took 30.9% o...
More ...    01 Jun 2007

Vodafone 2006/07 results and 2007/08 guidance: unambitious? [2007-51e]
Vodafone achieved its 2006/07 full year targets on revenue and profitability, with solid revenue growth (underlying about 2% in Europe) but dropping margins (by around 2pps in Europe) Its 2007/08 t...
More ...    31 May 2007

EMI: underperforming in difficult times [2007-50e]
Steep drops in US and UK recorded music sales dragged EMI’s group revenue 15.8% lower for FY 2006/07. EMI’s underperformance of the sagging recorded music industry highlights the scale of the challe...
More ...    30 May 2007

Cable & Wireless full year results to March 2007: a start is a start [2007-49e]
The performance of the international business remains solid The UK business is improving, but more slowly than is apparent from the reported figures It is likely to be autumn 2008 before the UK tu...
More ...    30 May 2007

Neuf Cegetel: is being #2 on the DSL market worth it? [2007-48e]
French altnet Neuf Cegetel is buying Club Internet from Deutsche Telekom for an estimated €500 million and will overtake its rival Free as the #2 on the DSL market, still way behind Orange Even tak...
More ...    29 May 2007

Q1 mobile operator results: the story so far... [2007-47e]
Growth in Q1 2007 for the aggregate non-Vodafone European mobile operations was 4.2%, a slight decline from 4.7% last quarter (Vodafone reports its results next week) The main reason for the declin...
More ...    22 May 2007

BT FY 2006-07 Q4 results: going whoosh? [2007-46e]
Revenue growth was weaker but EBITDA growth remained strong and capex fell, sending cash flow growth strongly positive Growth at Global Services looks increasingly capable of offsetting the effects...
More ...    21 May 2007

Trinity Mirror: another false dawn? [2007-45e]
Trinity Mirror’s recent optimism about the market for newspaper advertising “stabilising” is questionable, and we expect 2007 to be another year of decline, although less pronounced than in 2006 TM...
More ...    18 May 2007

Commercial radio: out of tune with London [2007-44e]
The three most listened to radio stations in London all belong to the BBC, for the first time since commercial radio started in 1973 Commercial radio’s share of listening (compared to the BBC) has...
More ...    18 May 2007

Warner Music Group: I will survive! [2007-43e]
Warner Music Group reported a mild revenue decline in Q2 FY 2006/07, despite continued steep declines in CD sales in the US and elsewhere, by outperforming other CD suppliers, gaining from rising do...
More ...    17 May 2007

Mobile data pricing in the UK: down but not out [2007-42e]
The new consumer data tariffs from Vodafone and Orange in the UK continue the trend towards dramatically lower data prices for high end users, although they are cunningly structured to involve more...
More ...    14 May 2007

Virgin Media Q1 2007 results: headwinds increasing [2007-41e]
Virgin Media’s Q1 top line results were again mixed, with a growing number of customers leaving as competition intensifies, despite the rebrand to Virgin. But it could have been worse; most higher-s...
More ...    11 May 2007

Virgin Radio: a pig in a poke [2007-40]
Scottish Media Group’s decision to sell its Virgin Radio business has been prompted by the need to pay down group debt and the management’s decision to refocus on the turnaround of its ITV service. Th...
More ...    09 May 2007

Sky high again [2007-39e]
Strong FY Q3 2007 results across all parts of Sky’s increasingly diversified portfolio testify to the success of its multiple product and service strategy as it makes the transition from a high pric...
More ...    04 May 2007

Back to being Apple computer [2007-38e]
iPod revenue (quarterly, year-on-year) declined for the first time. Even though unit sales were up 24% year-on-year, the average iPod price was down 20%. Apple group revenue growth is increasingly d...
More ...    01 May 2007

DMGT bucks advertising trend and reduces reliance on print [2007-36e]
DMGT’s recent upbeat trading update showed improvements on the hefty declines in advertising of 2005 and 2006. At least part of the lift is thanks to DMGT’s national titles gaining share from other...
More ...    17 Apr 2007

Mobile advertising: overhyped? [2007-35e]
Mobile advertising has recently been talked up by both mobile operators and media companies, with some analysts estimating that it could be worth more than $11 billion by 2011, or over one third of...
More ...    13 Apr 2007

UK Internet Advertising [2007-34]
The internet is the UK’s fastest growing advertising medium, with spend rising 41% to £2.02 billion in 2006, and a further 30% rise expected for 2007. Three drivers underpin this growth: more intense...
More ...    11 Apr 2007

Mobile termination rates [2007-33e]
Ofcom has reintroduced price cuts to the UK mobile call termination rates, cutting 2G call termination rates by between 9% and 19% over four years and introducing termination regulation for 3G calls...
More ...    04 Apr 2007

UK broadband market Q4 2006 [2007-32e]
UK broadband market growth fell to 3.2 million net additions in 2006 from 3.8 million in 2005. With 47% of UK households already on broadband, new entrant unbundlers (BSkyB and Carphone Warehouse) a...
More ...    03 Apr 2007

Canal+ post-merger targets for 2010 [2007-31e]
Canal+ targeted subscription (as opposed to subscriber) growth of 1.3 million by 2010 has a lot of stretch in view of the intense competition from free-to-air (FTA) services and in particular digita...
More ...    28 Mar 2007

H3G 2006 results: still burning [2007-30e]
H3G’s H2 2006 results were a mixed bag, with the UK’s revenue growth strong but Italy’s weak, churn reduced but unit SACs up, and non-SAC operating costs reduced but capex up sharply Net net, overa...
More ...    27 Mar 2007

Recorded Music and Music Publishing [2007-29]
This update on the prospects for the global recorded music market in the period to 2012 reveals the depth of the industry's woes from steep declines in CD sales in most major markets. Rising sales fro...
More ...    23 Mar 2007

Scottish Media Group - the only way is up? [2007-28e]
The boardroom coup at Scottish Media Group instigated by Hanover has revamped management with the aim of executing a turnaround strategy quickly In our view, the opportunities for turnaround of the...
More ...    22 Mar 2007

Sky and Virgin blogs [2007-27e]
The spat between Virgin and Sky over cable carriage of Sky basic channels has generated much blogging, mostly supportive of Virgin, although neither party appears to be gaining from the ‘zero sum ga...
More ...    20 Mar 2007

GMG’s sale of Trader Media Group stake [2007-26e]
The Guardian Media Group (GMG) sale of a minority stake of Trader Media, publisher of AutoTrader, in 2007 is well timed to maximise its price, given the preponderance of downside risks to classified...
More ...    20 Mar 2007

Iliad 2006 FY results [2007-25e]
Iliad’s 2006 results were solid with broadband subscriber growth on target, DSL market share up one point to 19%, ARPU up 7% to €34.5/month and churn (enviably) at just below 1% per month. Over 1 mi...
More ...    19 Mar 2007

Mobile revenue growth: December 2006 quarter [2007-24]
Aggregate mobile service revenue growth in the December quarter was stable at 4.2% although, given an easing of termination rate cuts, the underlying growth actually dropped by 0.5 percentage points...
More ...    16 Mar 2007

Sky's purchase of ITV shares [2007-23]
Using a little understood provision of the merger rules, the government has asked Ofcom to take a look at the Sky stake in ITV, just in case the OFT did not come up with the right answer the first tim...
More ...    09 Mar 2007

Mobile handsets: ever slimmer and fewer Gs [2007-22e]
Mobile handset form factors have continued to multiply, but the general trend is for flagship models to be slimmer, sleeker and more metallic The diminishing size is pushing 3G back out of the sta...
More ...    09 Mar 2007

Sogecable's vanishing goal posts [2007-21e]
With 84,000 net pay-TV additions in 2006, Sogecable resumed subscriber growth, but we expect this pace to decline in 2007 unless Sogecable re-positions on basic and expands distribution from satelli...
More ...    05 Mar 2007

Virgin Media Q4 results: Restructuring story promising, growth story more dubious [2007-20e]
Virgin Media’s Q4 results were again mixed – increasing competition is continuing to have a significant effect on net additions but, as yet, most higher ARPU customers are staying put, permitting mo...
More ...    02 Mar 2007

BBC iPlayer [2007-19e]
Set for launch in May/June, the BBC’s iPlayer is a PC-based application offering live and on-demand access to around 3,500 hours of BBC programmes per week via the internet, using peer-to-peer (P2P)...
More ...    02 Mar 2007

Sprint and the mobile WiMAX bubble [2007-18e]
Mobile WiMAX is still being heavily hyped as the future of mobile broadband, with Sprint in the US, with its $3 billion network rollout, being lauded as the pioneer It is hard, however, to see WiMA...
More ...    01 Mar 2007

Commercial radio: growth ambitions quashed by economic realities [2007-17e]
Commercial radio trade association launches new R.A.D.I.O. plan to achieve 20% revenue growth, increased share of listening and migration to digital platforms by 2011 Radio groups implement furthe...
More ...    01 Mar 2007

Mobile network sharing in the UK: a strategic blunder? [2007-16e]
Vodafone and Orange are planning to share their 3G networks in the UK, and are looking at potentially sharing their 2G networks in due course Sharing rural 3G networks makes sense, with significan...
More ...    22 Feb 2007

Sky versus Virgin (and all comers) [2007-15e]
Hostilities between Sky and Virgin have intensified during the course of cable’s re-launch, Sky’s announcement of its pay-DTT plans, and bilateral negotiations over channel carriage fee payments on...
More ...    19 Feb 2007

BT FY 2006/07 Q3 results: firing on (almost) all cylinders [2007-14e]
Group revenue growth was strong but helped by a one-off price change and LLU supply issues at Openreach EBITDA growth is continuing to accelerate, but cash flow growth remains elusive Risks rema...
More ...    12 Feb 2007

Mobile TV: poor reception to date [2007-13]
This report sets out the technological, regulatory and consumer demand issues relating to the provision of mobile TV services in the UK. In summary, technology is uncertain, spectrum is scarce and dem...
More ...    09 Feb 2007

Yell UK and Classified Directory Advertising Services [2007-12]
Yell UK is the dominant supplier of Classified Advertising Directory Services (CDAS) in the UK. Its principal competitor is BT but, as a natural monopoly, it is regulated, and has just undergone a sec...
More ...    07 Feb 2007

Sky FY 2007 Q2 results [2007-11e]
Strong second quarter subscriber figures, including 432,000 gross additions, the highest in six years, attest to a strong and improving product offer. To reach the core target of 10 million subscrib...
More ...    05 Feb 2007

Vodafone Q3 2006/07 KPIs: steady but unspectacular [2007-10e]
Vodafone’s underlying service revenue growth in its core European markets again improved, to 3.0% from 2.3% in the previous quarter, although most of this improvement was due to the impact from term...
More ...    01 Feb 2007

Apple quarterly results [2007-09e]
iPod volumes hit a record 21.1 million units sold in the key Christmas quarter, but year-over-year quarterly revenue growth declined again to 18% (from 29%) due to lower prices for all iPods and con...
More ...    30 Jan 2007

Trinity Mirror disposals [2007-08e]
Trinity Mirror’s decision to sell certain regional newspaper and sports assets is ill-timed in view of the severe declines in newspaper circulation and advertising revenues across the industry, whic...
More ...    29 Jan 2007

Very High Speed Broadband: A Case For Intervention? [2007-07]
In continental Europe ‘public/private partnerships’ rolling out very high speed broadband (VHSB) access networks to consumers are the latest rage, with local governments pushing their own subsidy init...
More ...    24 Jan 2007

H3G drops roaming charges [2007-06e]
H3G has removed roaming charges for customers roaming onto its own overseas networks. While reducing roaming prices can be partially, or even fully, compensated for by elasticity effects, removing t...
More ...    23 Jan 2007

Carphone Warehouse Q3 trading statement: is no news good news? [2007-05e]
Carphone Warehouse’s core distribution business was firm, showing no signs of being harmed by Vodafone withdrawing its new contract business in the UK Growth will likely slow from 2006's impressive...
More ...    18 Jan 2007

Climate change: M&S goes for Plan A [2007-04e]
Marks & Spencer’s plan to make itself the world’s most 'sustainable' retailer is an extremely ambitious proposal to make the company carbon neutral, reduce its own landfill waste to zero, and change...
More ...    18 Jan 2007

The Apple iPhone – beautiful, but niche [2007-03e]
Apple has introduced its long-awaited iPhone, with sleek looks and a host of innovative touches, to be launched in the US exclusively with Cingular in June and Europe by the end of 2007 While beau...
More ...    12 Jan 2007

BT's IPTV play [2007-02e]
BT has gone further than expected in setting a “medium term” goal of 2-3 million customers for BT Vision, remaining vague on when it will be achieved. Giving away the PVR and a cheap self-install op...
More ...    10 Jan 2007

Audiovisual advertising blues 2007 [2007-01e]
Television advertising revenues fell by nearly 7% and radio advertising by more than 4% in 2006 according to latest market estimates. We expect declines of around 4% for both media in 2007 The fal...
More ...    04 Jan 2007

US digital music sales in 2006 [2006-e73]
US digital music sales continue to perform well, despite press reports to the contrary, with the average weekly volume of tracks sold up 75% in 2006, supported by steady sales of iPods US digital...
More ...    21 Dec 2006

TF1 - new digital TV offensive [2006-e72]
TF1, France’s leading free-to-air (FTA) terrestrial broadcaster, has repositioned its channel assets in order to better exploit rapid growth of digital TV, now taken by 44% of households TF1’s acq...
More ...    20 Dec 2006

Mobile revenue growth - September 2006 quarter [2006-71]
Aggregate mobile service revenue growth remains reasonably strong, at 4% for the latest quarter for the five largest European countries This growth is in spite of some high outbound tariff cuts, a...
More ...    14 Dec 2006

France Télécom takes few risks with naked DSL [2006-e70]
Under regulatory pressure, France Télécom introduced in July 2006 a wholesale ‘naked’ DSL offer, under which broadband alone is supplied to the customer, as the lower frequency portion of the line u...
More ...    12 Dec 2006

Internet and Telephony Market Statistics Q3 2006 [2006-69]
At the end of Q3 2006, the UK had 12.4 million broadband connections and we estimate 45% household broadband penetration. Over the past 12 months, 3.4 million new broadband connections have been sold,...
More ...    06 Dec 2006

H3G’s X-Series and the mobile internet (or lack thereof) [2006-e68]
H3G’s X-Series is not quite as innovative as it was presented to be, given that T-Mobile’s Web ‘n’ Walk is very similar in concept (flat rate data tariffs, 3rd party Internet services) and has been...
More ...    22 Nov 2006

ITV - where next? [2006-e67]
Today ITV officially rejected NTL's bid, currently worth around 120 pence/share with, among others, the consequence that Sir Peter Burt will have to continue to show up for meetings at ITV for the f...
More ...    21 Nov 2006

BT FY 2006-07 Q2 results: further progress but rougher water ahead [2006-e66]
Group revenue growth continues to be positive but vulnerable; EBITDA growth continues apace but cash flow growth has again been hit by 21CN capex BT’s financial year beginning April 2007 looks lik...
More ...    17 Nov 2006

Vodafone H1 2006/07 results: on the mend? [2006-e65]
Vodafone’s revenue growth has improved, with core underlying growth rising both relative to the previous quarter and relative to its competitors Vodafone’s 3G and convergence efforts appear to now...
More ...    16 Nov 2006

NTL-Q3 results [2006-e64]
Although NTL could use ITV programming to improve its competitiveness, it is difficult to see how yet another acquisition could be justified, given the managerial and financial burden that would res...
More ...    15 Nov 2006

ITV1 Viewing Decline: Causes and Prospects [2006-63]
Having experienced an almost straight-line decline in its audience, ITV1’s 20% share of total viewing in 2006 is about half of what it was in 1992. Although the causes of this dramatic decline have va...
More ...    15 Nov 2006

Vodafone UK broadband launch [2006-e62]
Vodafone UK’s new broadband product is not very competitively priced compared to the offers from Carphone Warehouse and Orange, costing £5-10 a month more than the nearest equivalent packages The...
More ...    13 Nov 2006

Changing times for Sky - fiscal Q1 2007 results [2006-e61]
Fiscal Q1 2007 results show unexpectedly strong subscriber gross additions (14% up on Q1 2006) and a promising start to Sky Broadband in its pursuit of at least 3 million subscribers by December 201...
More ...    13 Nov 2006

ITV/NTL - a possible combination transaction [2006-e60]
Under mounting competitive pressure from Sky, NTL needs to reinforce its position in content and has approached ITV about a possible combination A merger would not be a panacea for either company...
More ...    10 Nov 2006

Microsoft’s Zune: credible or incredible competitor to Apple? [2006-e59]
The Zune will compete with the iPod Video – but not the mini, nano or shuffle that have built Apple’s player market share. The Zune’s USP of Wi-Fi capability (to share tracks locally, not download)...
More ...    10 Nov 2006

Classified Advertising in Print and Online [2006-58]
The UK newspaper industry is being engulfed by a 'perfect storm'. Overall advertising has been in a cyclical downturn since mid-2005, and public sector recruitment in particular has been weak, while r...
More ...    09 Nov 2006

Internet Advertising: you’ve been googled! [2006-e57]
Last week Google hit the headlines on the back of forecasts for its UK revenues for 2006 which we expect to reach £920 million, up 90% on 2005, cited as proof of a structural shift away from broadcast...
More ...    07 Nov 2006

Orange UK: struggling to give convergence away for free [2006-e56]
Orange UK’s converged mobile and broadband brands and ‘free’ broadband offer has not proved a big hit with consumers, with Orange reporting just 25,000 DSL net additions for the September quarter, l...
More ...    01 Nov 2006

French broadband market update [2006-e55]
The level of net broadband additions in France declined in Q3 2006 to 539,000 net adds, down 8% on a year-over-year basis, as narrowband migration reaches completion due to exceptional levels of pro...
More ...    30 Oct 2006

UK Residential Broadband Market [2006-54]
This report examines recent developments in the UK residential market for broadband internet access. We consider past trends and the outlook over the next five years for the total market volume, marke...
More ...    20 Oct 2006

Vodafone drops Carphone Warehouse, but who will fall further? [2006-e53]
In a fit of pique over increasing subsidies, Vodafone UK is dropping Carphone Warehouse (CPW) as a distributor, and moving exclusively to Phones4U with lower subsidy levels and volume guarantees, wh...
More ...    16 Oct 2006

IPO of Neuf Cegetel [2006-e52]
Neuf Cegetel will make an initial public offering (IPO) on Euronext Paris on 25th October. Proceeds of about €847 million are expected (if the ‘green shoe’ option is fully exercised and the price is s...
More ...    13 Oct 2006

The Carphone Warehouse's proposed acquisition of the AOL UK access business [2006-e51]
The Carphone Warehouse (CPW)’s £370 million acquisition of AOL UK’s internet access business is set to quadruple the size of CPW’s UK broadband customer base, enabling it to become the third largest p...
More ...    13 Oct 2006

Canal+ Group after the merger [2006-50]
Ten years of fierce and implacable rivalry between Canal+ Group and TPS, the two French pay-TV operators, is expected to end in November 2006, when they close their merger deal and Canal+ France emerg...
More ...    11 Oct 2006

CRR (Cash Withdrawal Machine) [2006-e49]
Total TV advertising expenditure is expected to fall between 4% and 7% in 2006. ITV1 will suffer most, with a projected fall in NAR of around 13-14%, but the rest of the TV industry is also starting t...
More ...    29 Sep 2006

UK termination rate cuts... and increases [2006-e48]
Ofcom has reintroduced price reductions for UK mobile call termination charges, cutting 2G termination rates in real terms by between 6% and 16% over four years and introducing regulation for 3G call...
More ...    28 Sep 2006

Iliad - Destiny [2006-47]
Iliad is among the very few European altnets that have made unbundling a profitable business, despite France's highly contested market for broadband. This report examines Iliad's current positioning i...
More ...    25 Sep 2006

Vodafone chooses wholesale broadband from BT [2006-e46]
Vodafone is taking the first step in implementing its convergence strategy in the UK by buying broadband from BT Wholesale; while we believe the strategy is misguided, Vodafone’s approach is at least...
More ...    15 Sep 2006

Pipex acquisition of Bulldog and Toucan, wholesale deal with Cable & Wireless [2006-e45]
Pipex’s acquisition of the Bulldog and Toucan customer bases establishes it as a significant player in the UK residential telecoms market Pipex’s strategy is sophisticated, but its success depends to...
More ...    08 Sep 2006

European Mobile Revenue Growth – June 2006 quarter [2006-44]
In the attached slides, we examine the service revenue growth trends in the top five European mobile markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain) over the last six quarters (ending in the June 2006...
More ...    06 Sep 2006

H3G results: the lengthening path to profitability [2006-e43]
H3G has extended its deadline for hitting EBITDA breakeven, with this now around 12 months later than its previous forecast, we believe due to management failing to understand the extent of its churn...
More ...    04 Sep 2006

UTV and SMG merger could revive commercial radio sector [2006-e42]
The prospect of a merger between Scottish Media Group (SMG) and UTV (formerly Ulster Television) provides exactly the positive news the commercial radio sector needs at this time. The merger would bri...
More ...    30 Aug 2006

NTL Q2 results [2006-e41]
NTL’s Q2 results were again adversely affected by merger-related costs There is little evidence of a revenue meltdown On-schedule delivery of the programme to extract ‘synergy’ from the NTL/Telewest m...
More ...    22 Aug 2006

UK DTV Platform Growth [2006-40]
The UK continues to be the largest and fastest growing national digital TV (DTV) market in Europe. We now expect 75% of UK TV homes to be equipped with digital reception by the end of 2006, rising to...
More ...    16 Aug 2006

Poor ratings exacerbate commercial radio woes [2006-e39]
The latest RAJAR radio data (Q2 2006) delivered further bad news to the commercial radio sector, whose audience share has fallen year-on-year in all but four quarters of the last eight years to the be...
More ...    14 Aug 2006

BT FY 2006-07 Q1 results: revenue growth looking more vulnerable but overall performance continuing to improve [2006-e38]
Group revenue growth remains positive, but intensifying competition in residential services and the absence of further big wins in corporate contracts mean that it looks more vulnerable than it has fo...
More ...    28 Jul 2006

UK Mobile Consumer Trends [2006-37]
In the attached report we are publishing the 2006 edition of our regular review of UK mobile user trends, based on a survey of 1,000 adults. We look at handset ownership, replacement trends, handset m...
More ...    28 Jul 2006

Vodafone June quarter KPIs: excuses, excuses… [2006-e36]
Vodafone blamed a harsh competitive environment and the timing of Easter for its low revenue growth in core markets reported this week. Its growth did at least not decline again, although we expect th...
More ...    26 Jul 2006

Sky Broadband: All power to the portal [2006-35]
True to pre-launch speculation, BSkyB has entered broadband with a price-cutting bang that will have sent tremors round the rest of the industry. BSkyB plans to unbundle 1,200 exchanges by the end of...
More ...    21 Jul 2006

Sogecable and the Spanish game of football bluff [2006-e34]
Spain’s top football club FC Barcelona (Barça) has threatened to withdraw its broadcast licence from Sogecable unless it matches an offer from Mediapro that is almost double the current annual fee for...
More ...    17 Jul 2006

AOL UK internet access sale [2006-e33]
AOL UK offers buyers of its internet access business the prospect of instant scale in broadband, enabling 1,000 exchanges to be unbundled on a shared LLU basis. However, it has relatively few of the t...
More ...    17 Jul 2006

UK Cable Prospects [2006-32]
The UK market for fixed line telecoms services is undergoing huge change. Local loop unbundling is increasing price erosion in both broadband and telephony. BSkyB, BT and Orange are all planning to la...
More ...    07 Jul 2006

A busy week in UK broadband [2006-e31]
BT’s launch of ‘Total Broadband’ represents a timely improvement in the value proposition for BT’s residential broadband customers but its impact will depend crucially on the success of BT Vision and...
More ...    22 Jun 2006

ITV1 NAR plunge in 2006 [2006-e30]
ITV plc national advertising revenues (NAR) from ITV1 fell by £50 million in 2005. This was caused chiefly by a loss of more than 6% in weighted share of commercial impacts in 2004, which enables a pr...
More ...    19 Jun 2006

New media and creative industries [2006-e29]
Here are the main points of the evidence I gave on 9 May 2006 before the House of Commons Select Committee for Culture, Media & Sport joint meeting with Trade and Industry Committee. I was questioned...
More ...    14 Jun 2006

Canal+ outlook for sub growth [2006-e28]
Vivendi Q1 2006 quarterly results show solid underlying improvement in earnin