Publications

Format: Jun 2018
sort descending Sector(s) Date
Carphone Warehouse trading update: clearer water

At TalkTalk Group (TTG) net broadband additions were solid, possibly helped by stronger growth in total market demand; but churn at Tiscali UK appears to remain high

TTG revenue was heavily distorted by the Tiscali acquisition but appears to remain in gradual decline on a like-for-like basis, due to continuing decline in non-broadband customers

Carphone Warehouse’s like-for-like distribution revenue showed a firm pick-up in the quarter, with it likely enjoying the first quarter of significantly improving market growth since the recession started

  • TalkTalk
  • Carphone Warehouse
Telecoms, Fixed Line 20 January 2010
Carphone Warehouse trading update: weathering the storm

Carphone Warehouse’s distribution business felt the recessionary chill for the first time in the December quarter, but its like-for-like organic growth of -1% was still far better than other consumer electronics retailers have fared

The market outlook is unfortunately still worsening. While we still expect Carphone Warehouse to outperform its competitors, its results are likely to get worse before they get better

In fixed line, net broadband additions were reasonable at TalkTalk but negative again at AOL. We are sceptical of the prospects for subscriber growth at AOL, and earlier guidance of 200-250k broadband net adds for the year to March now looks unlikely to be met

  • TalkTalk
  • Carphone Warehouse
Telecoms, Mobile, Fixed Line 16 January 2009
Carphone Warehouse: distribution steady but fixed line telecoms not yet out of the woods

The distribution business had a strong year, marred by a longer than usual Christmas hangover in the last quarter, but the early signs for the new financial year are promising

  • Carphone Warehouse
Telecoms, Fixed Line 9 June 2007
Carphone Warehouse: fixed line momentum regained, but distribution has a shakier start

The distribution business was slightly weak despite good like-for-like store sales, due to the lower quality ‘off-the-page’ newspaper advertisement business being successfully cut back by the mobile operators

  • Carphone Warehouse
Telecoms, Fixed Line 29 July 2007
Case studies: BuzzFeed, Vice, YouTube vloggers (Ofcom PSB review)

As part of Ofcom’s third review of public service broadcasting, Enders Analysis produced 12 case studies of online media services, examining how they contribute to the public service objectives. The full report and all case studies are available on the Ofcom website.

Here we present three of those case studies: BuzzFeed, Vice, and the phenomenon of YouTube ‘vloggers’ producing content for young people. These represent sources of innovative content unlike that found in traditional media.

The online services we assess attract younger audiences than traditional media, and also have a more flexible approach to monetising those audiences, relying on sponsorship, creative solutions and even events and book deals to capitalise on their brands.

Internet, TV, Media, Technology, Telecoms 16 December 2014
Challenges old and new: TalkTalk Group Q2 2015/16 results

TalkTalk’s results revealed a challenging market environment, with it struggling to maintain its broadband subscriber base given the onslaught from larger and more differentiated competitors

Revenue growth was still a healthy 6%, but this was helped by acquisitions, price adjustments and low margin mobile, with its EBITDA falling despite the drop in broadband customer growth and associated costs

Its cost savings programme and marked price increases are likely to allow it to grow EBITDA this year and next, with the impact of the cyber-attack being significant but short-lived, but its declining retail customer base is a longer term concern

  • TalkTalk
Telecoms 24 November 2015
Challenging future for internet TV aggregators

Hulu’s postponed UK launch, and the inability of SeeSaw and MSN to get carriage deals with the BBC and ITV, underscore the difficulty for internet TV aggregators of acquiring mainstream content

In-stream video advertising is nascent – we estimate it was worth just over 1% of UK TV ad spend last year – giving major channel operators/rights holders little incentive to syndicate their programming to online services

The future for ad-funded internet aggregators continues to look highly challenging, aside from YouTube, due to its audience scale and Google’s deep pockets

  • ITV
  • Google
  • BBC
Media, TV, Internet 12 March 2010
Changing times for Sky - fiscal Q1 2007 results

Fiscal Q1 2007 results show unexpectedly strong subscriber gross additions (14% up on Q1 2006) and a promising start to Sky Broadband in its pursuit of at least 3 million subscribers by December 2010. Management attributes the strong gross subscriber additions to the ‘halo’ effect of its broadband and telephony offer

Growth will likely slow from 2006's impressive levels, but the business is still a very solid core, with volumes, prices and commission levels likely to hold up well for the foreseeable future

As regards TalkTalk, the rate of customer migration onto fully unbundled lines continues to be an issue, but the situation is improving, albeit gradually

The appeal of the ‘free’ offer appears to have survived the serious customer service issues of 2006, but the new marketing campaign will need to boost subscriber growth significantly for it to remain on-track

  • Sky
Media 13 November 2006
Changing TV viewing habits of older viewers

The continuing value of linear television is underlined by the fact that television is still comfortably the biggest display advertising medium, and we expect to see strong growth in 2014 and 2015 in spite of the growing impact of online to TV viewing.

Viewing among the 35+s has held up well, and the subset of 45-64s, who control most of the UK’s disposable income and are heavy TV viewers while embracing new technology and modern attitudes, will become increasingly important for broadcasters as the age profile of the UK gets older.

We do not see an overall dramatic shift away from television to other forms of entertainment, though this cannot be taken for granted.

TV, Media 8 September 2014
Channel 4 adapting to change: 2014 annual report

After a testing 2013, which saw an 11% fall in audience share of main Channel 4, 2014 has seen a £30 million increase in total revenues to £938 million and return to financial surplus for the first time since 2011

Channel 4 is much more challenged than any other PSB group as well as much of the non-PSB sector by the steep recent decline in viewing among younger age-groups, yet has stuck close to its public service remit of reaching out to the 16-34s and a wide selection of minorities while maintaining its investments in programme origination

A buoyant TV advertising climate, innovative approach to content investment and focus within the digital space on getting to grips with the changing viewing behaviours of the 16-34s point to strong revenue growth in 2015

  • Channel 4
Media, TV, UK Media 16 June 2015
Channel 4 future funding challenge

The essential conclusion of Ofcom’s Second Public Service Broadcasting Review is that the present commercial PSB model is unsustainable in the digital age. The Ofcom solution of fixing on Channel 4 as the “alternative, commercial PSB voice”, while freeing up the Channel 3 and 5 licensees from most of their PSB obligations, still leaves a major funding gap

A particularly attractive solution is some kind of synergy-generating merger/JV/partnership, but difficult to achieve in practice. The attached note examines the main issues that we may expect to arise with the existing proposals

  • Channel 4
  • BBC
  • ITV
Media, TV 6 February 2009
Channel 4 market impact

Channel 4 is a key pillar of the UK’s audio-visual economy. Its unique commissioning model fosters a hotbed of new creative UK talent, an ecosystem of independent producers, many micro

Channel 4 commissions a greater share of its budget than any other broadcaster, public or private, also fostering the creative economy outside the M25, and 9% of commissions will be to the Nations by 2020

The future success of the stand-alone independent production companies is not in the hands of ITV and Channel 5, but of Channel 4 and the BBC – the pure PSBs

  • Channel 4
Media, TV, UK Media 5 January 2016
Channel 4 plugs into YouTube

Channel 4 has confirmed it will distribute catch-up and archive TV shows via YouTube on a non-exclusive basis starting in November, with the broadcaster responsible for selling advertising around its content

The partnership looks to be a win-win: Channel 4 stands to get a huge lift in its online audience while retaining control over sales, while Google achieves a breakthrough deal with a major broadcaster with the hope of more to come

We expect a rash of similar deals as rights holders, broadcasters and video service providers jostle for position in the nascent internet TV market, but few will benefit from the special synergies offered by Channel 4-YouTube

  • Channel 4
Media, TV, Internet 17 October 2009
Channel 4 radio: six feet under

Channel 4 has announced the immediate withdrawal of its majority stake in 4 Digital Group, a new venture that was awarded the licence by Ofcom in 2007 to build the UK’s second national commercial radio DAB multiplex, and Channel 4 will not be launching its promised portfolio of broadcast radio channels

The obvious culprit is the weak economy, with mobile telecoms seeming to be more vulnerable to consumer cutbacks than previously thought, a hypothesis supported by recent consumer research

With European economic growth forecast to decline further, revenue growth is likely to drop below zero by the beginning of 2009, and then progressively worsen through 2009 as regulatory effects worsen, creating a very tough environment for mobile operators to preserve margins

 

  • Channel 4
Media, Music and Radio 11 October 2008
Channel 4 set for the future: 2016 annual report

2016 has seen Channel 4 break new records in growing revenues and investing in content origination, whilst making further progress in delivering its remit and maintaining audience share for its main channel

However, the second half of 2016 and early months of this year promise a significantly tougher 2017 as the economic and TV advertising climate has worsened and the future is clouded with uncertainties

Channel 4 nonetheless starts from a relatively strong position financially and we expect it to be well capable of sustaining its remit under the leadership of its new CEO Alex Mahon, though much hinges on the outcome of the Government consultation on relocation 

  • Channel 4
Media, TV 24 July 2017
Channel 4 setting new records: 2015 annual report

2015 has been a very good year for Channel 4: excellent remit delivery, record revenues and record investment in content origination, supported by the stabilisation of audience share for its main channel, which we expect to continue in 2016.

The spectre of privatisation nevertheless looms. The government may have backed away from full privatisation, but part privatisation is still on the table. In our view, this has even less merit and promises even more conflicts of interest than full privatisation.

Channel 4 should be encouraged by the government’s White Paper on BBC Charter Renewal, which has strongly endorsed its commitment to public service broadcasting under the next 11-year Charter.

  • Channel 4
Media, TV 24 May 2016
Channel 4 viewing trends and sustainability

The Government is exploring the privatisation option for future Channel 4 ownership on account of its concerns about the sustainability of the Channel 4 business model in light of recent viewing trends

Channel 4’s focus on 16-34s has put it under extra pressure, but the topline figures do not remotely tell the true story. 2010-2013 was a period of disruption due to special factors. Little decline has occurred since, and Channel 4 group 16-34 and peak time viewing shares have held firm since 2010

As for revenues, the trading dynamics of UK TV advertising have seen audience loss more than matched by increased spend, benefiting both Channel 4 and ITV. This is not about to change, while BBC3 closure and Channel 4 digital video growth will reinforce the financial sustainability of Channel 4, now delivering its remit better than ever

  • Channel 4
Media, TV, UK Media 1 March 2016
Channel 4: radio ambitions aim too high

Ofcom has awarded the UK’s second national commercial digital radio multiplex to Channel 4 Television, having rejected a competing bid from National Grid Wireless

  • Channel 4
Media, Music and Radio 4 July 2007
Channel 4: relocation and dislocation

Channel 4 revenues and content spend hit record levels in 2016, but the company faces a declining TV advertising market in 2017 due to a weaker economy and competition

The company’s ability to deliver its unique remit to audiences and producers is also under pressure from Government proposals to move staff outside London

Because Channel 4 can only commission, a move will not stimulate a creative cluster. Risks to the remit include the loss of talent and lower content spend due to higher opex 

  • BBC
  • Channel 4
  • ITV
Media, TV, UK Media 16 August 2017
Channel 4: sustainability and privatisation

The newly elected Conservative government is exploring all the options for privatising Channel 4, but faces a complex legislative pathway

The privatisation case would be made easier if the current model were unsustainable. Only, Channel 4 is delivering its remit with great success, is commercially sustainable, and promises both to remain highly sustainable and grow its PSB contribution through its current licence ending in 2024

Channel 4 privatisation offers small returns to the Treasury as long as the remit, IP ownership restrictions and ban on vertical integration remain in place

  • Channel 4
Media, TV, UK Media 18 December 2015

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