Publications

Format: Dec 2017
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BSkyB's Results and the State of Pay-TV in the UK

NTL's share price slide over the last few weeks has focused attention again on the prospects for UK pay-TV.

This report extends the analysis to the two largest European incumbents, France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom. We look at trends in market share, wholesale and retail pricing, and the impact of increased competition. We identify the companies' strategies in the face of these forces and show the impact of stretched balance sheets on corporate actions.

  • Sky
Media 11 July 2001
BT - The Pressure Will Continue

As the various separations in the BT family draw closer, we use this report to assess the likely prospects of the core UK fixed line division, Wholesale and Retail.

The key points are:

  • BT
Telecoms 17 August 2001
BT 2009/10 Q4 results: strong cost control and better visibility, but a tough year ahead

BT met its guidance for the year to March 2010, although the improvement this quarter was more modest and concentrated at Global Services

New guidance gives an exceptional level of visibility over the next three years which, although welcome, reflects the challenges which lie ahead

BT has stepped smartly back from the brink but, as management concedes, there is much left to do, particularly at Global Services, which continues to burn cash

 

  • BT
Fixed Line, Telecoms 16 May 2010
BT and Earthlease

We note with interest the reported bids by various consortia for part or all of BT's fixed-line network.  According to press reports, the Earthlease consortium has offered £8bn for BT's local loop (i.e. the copper wire connecting individual telephones to the local exchange), while a WestLB led consortium is reported to be ready to offer £18bn for the entire network.  Note that each of these bids will be structured as asset purchases financed largely by debt. The plans are to provide wholesale access to the network to BT Retail and other telcos.

We try to assess the impact on the replacement cycle and network use, and hypothesise that these development are not likely, by themselves, to increase the current levels of replacement. Cameras and Multimedia Messaging Services look as though they may be an attractive combination, but we question whether the industry has yet managed to create true interoperability between phones for this type of function.

  • BT
Telecoms 30 August 2001
BT and FON

BT is now offering its broadband customers the option of joining the FON network, allowing them to use the FON worldwide network of Wi-Fi hotspots

  • BT
Telecoms, Fixed Line 13 October 2007
BT Broadband

BT's direct access broadband product attracted a lot of attention last week. This note examines the likely scale of demand for the product over the next four years. We conclude that although the product does have a niche among sophisticated users, the number of prospective customers is very unlikely to exceed 1 million. BT forecasts several times this number.

We use this report to show that, while camera phones have been important in Japan, they have actually added very little to ARPU. Their primary effect has been to attract high spending customers to J-Phone, Japan's innovator in this area. The rate of uptake in Japan has been encouraged by highly subsidised handsets (less than or around €150 or £100), and very low prices for sending and receiving pictures (12 € cents or 8 pence each).

  • BT
Telecoms 25 April 2002
BT Broadband

In this report, we show that price competition between ISPs is helping to push broadband penetration to higher levels than we expected. BT is likely to achieve at least some of its targets for broadband connections. However, this is at the expense of profitability. We suggest that BT Retail is unlikely to make money on broadband connections, particularly in view of the high acquisition costs and the potential for subscriber churn. We also note that the BT strategy in broadband is crippling other ISPs.

  • BT
Telecoms 4 November 2002
BT Everywhere?

A merger between BT and EE would create a converged operator directly serving around half of the UK adult population with fixed broadband, mobile or both services

We remain sceptical of the direct benefits of quad play and cross-selling, but we can see the benefits of merging the largest fixed and mobile operators under a single brand, and the long term strategic sense of owning both networks in case converged service offerings do become more important

The implications for other market participants are mixed, with benefits in the short term from the distraction of a large merger, and perhaps some regulatory concessions, but a longer term threat from the enlarged brand, and BT having a much enlarged customer base over which to spread content costs

  • BT
  • EE
Fixed Line, Mobile, Telecoms 17 December 2014
BT FY 2005-06 Q4 results

BT is continuing to grow revenue in spite of increasing competition in the residential market

  • BT
Telecoms 21 May 2006
BT FY 2005/06 Q3 results: light at the end of the tunnel?

Global Services is now established as the main engine of growth at BT

The company will take a significant cash hit in the early years of the project but CPW’s new-found scale in fixed telephony means the strategy is likely to succeed 

  • BT
Telecoms 13 February 2006
BT FY 2006-07 Q1 results: revenue growth looking more vulnerable but overall performance continuing to improve

Group revenue growth remains positive, but intensifying competition in residential services and the absence of further big wins in corporate contracts mean that it looks more vulnerable than it has for some time 

  • BT
Telecoms 27 July 2006
BT FY 2006-07 Q2 results: further progress but rougher water ahead

Group revenue growth continues to be positive but vulnerable; EBITDA growth continues apace but cash flow growth has again been hit by 21CN capex

  • BT
Telecoms, Fixed Line 17 November 2006
BT FY 2006-07 Q4 results: going whoosh?

Revenue growth was weaker but EBITDA growth remained strong and capex fell, sending cash flow growth strongly positive

  • BT
Telecoms, Fixed Line 19 May 2007
BT FY 2006/07 Q3 results: firing on (almost) all cylinders

Group revenue growth was strong but helped by a one-off price change and LLU supply issues at Openreach

  • BT
Telecoms, Fixed Line 12 February 2007
BT FY 2007-08 Q3 results: under pressure

Increasing loss of retail call market share and continuing decline in wholesale revenue stunted growth in group revenue, which would have dropped slightly without help from acquisitions

  • BT
Telecoms, Fixed Line 12 February 2008
BT FY 2007-08 Q4 results: continued pressure on underlying performance

BT’s Q4 results were a welcome improvement on Q3, with better growth in revenue, consistent growth in EBITDA and strong growth in cash flow

 

 

 

  • BT
Telecoms, Fixed Line 18 May 2008
BT FY 2007/08 Q1 results: more clarity required on 21CN

Growth in revenue and EBITDA was adequate but a nasty surge in capex hit cash flow

  • BT
Telecoms, Fixed Line 31 July 2007
BT FY 2007/2008 Q2 results: reasonable overall EBITDA performance but concerns on 21CN remain

Overall growth in revenue and EBITDA remained adequate, in spite of a poor quarter at BT Wholesale

  • BT
Telecoms, Fixed Line 13 November 2007
BT FY 2008-09 Q1 results: wholesale hit compounded by weak performance at Global Services

BT’s Q1 results were weak, with declining like-for-like revenue and EBITDA, although cash flow grew strongly thanks to a lull in capex

  • BT
Telecoms, Fixed Line 2 August 2008
BT FY 2008-09 Q2 results: resilience reduced by cost control issues at Global Services

As announced in the October trading update, BT’s Q2 results were hit by poor cost control at Global Services. Performance elsewhere was reasonable but was shored up at group level by a spike in contribution from non-core business

  • BT
Telecoms, Fixed Line 17 November 2008

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