Publications

Format: Dec 2018
sort descending Sector(s) Date
UK cinema: 3D loses lustre

In 2011, UK admissions were up 1% on 2010 and box office receipts rose 5% to just over £1 billion. Retail revenues were flat and screen advertising fell sharply

3D took a lower share of box office receipts in 2011 on the success of British content and the rise of 2D in 3D dual release box office receipts

Although UK cinema-going appears insulated from home entertainment trends such as streaming video content, the weak slate of films in 2012 is a risk factor for admissions

Media 1 March 2012
UK Classified Advertising

UK classified advertising, which generated £4.8 billion in 2007 (26% of total UK advertising spend), could decline to £4.2 billion in 2008 and to £3.7 billion in 2009. In our view, advertisers are accelerating their shift online as a result of the economic downturn, while the property market’s steep decline depresses associated classifieds. Online has already overtaken national newspapers and magazines as classified advertising media, and looks set to rise above directories in 2008. In the near future, online will be the leading classified advertising medium, ahead of regional newspapers. The enclosed presentation updates for 2008 the information contained in Classified Advertising in the UK [2007-55]

 

 

 

Media, Internet 7 October 2008
UK Classified Advertising

UK classified advertising, which covers categories such as recruitment, property, used car sales as well as directory services including Yellow Pages, has been hit severely in the recession

Last year, we estimate there was a 10.4% decline to £4.1 billion of total classified expenditure across all media including newspapers, magazines and online

However, trends have since accelerated, and we project total classifieds will generate about £3.2 billion this year, a decline of 27% on 2008

Media, Internet 15 August 2009
UK classified advertising 2011

UK classified advertising in print and digital media fell -9% in 2010 to £2.76 billion, and we expect a further decline of -7% in 2011.

Our annual review and outlook concerns the classified advertising categories of recruitment, property, autos (used) and directories, across all media. We assess the continuing structural shift from print formats to less expensive digital media, in the context of prolonged recessionary pressures on local economies in the UK (bar London), which have reduced annual transaction volumes in 2010 by -28% in recruitment, -45% in property and just -16% in used cars, in relation to the peak in 2007.

A key development in recent quarters has been the rapid adoption of smartphones and tablets as emerging platforms for classified advertising by the industries serving them. Consumers are enjoying the additional benefits of on-the-move data (e.g. in the forecourts of auto dealers) and instantaneous updates (e.g. for property rentals), which advertisers are keen to exploit, providing additional revenue opportunities for classified media. B2B classified platforms also monetise integrated brand and listings solutions, plus marketplace tools. New models are evolving that will have implications for other media and in some cases, industry supply chains.

  • DMGT
Internet, Media 18 August 2011
UK Classified Advertising Annual Report: Part One- Overview and Recruitment

Classifieds generated £5 billion in 2009, down 13.3% on 2008, accounting for one-third of UK advertising spend

The migration of classifieds from print media to online media accelerated during the recession, with no prospect of a ‘bounce back’ -recruitment has fallen 65% from its peak of £1.5 billion in 2004 to (our estimates) about £649 million in 2009 and down to £538 million in 2010

Key players do not charge on a performance basis, so online and print media retain similar charging models

Digital revenues on a like-for-like basis are discounted by 60-70% of print, with online players offering services, such as display for branding purposes or web marketing to SMEs, to add to core advertising income

Media, Internet 24 August 2010
UK Classified Advertising Annual Report: Part Two- Property, Auto, Directories

Part Two of our annual report on classifieds covers property, auto (used) and directories

As with recruitment, covered in Part One, a step change downwards has occurred in the underlying volumes of transactions driving classifieds in property, autos and directories

Publishers of commercially-run classified sites must contend to different degrees with the presence of Google

Advertiser interest in print editions of directories will remain as these continue to attract mainly older consumers and households outside urban areas

Advertisers face a fragmented marketplace online for directory services, as desktops are used for in-home services, while smartphone apps supply the destination services prized by the affluent, young urban dweller

  • Google
Media, Internet 25 August 2010
UK classifieds overview and recruitment category outlook

Our annual series of reports on expenditure on advertising in the classified verticals of jobs, property and autos, kicks off with an overview of the print-to-digital transition that lifted the share of digital to over 50% in 2013. In summary, digital consumers are becoming more sophisticated and mobile traffic growth is accelerating. We thus expect classified services to be under pressure to innovate more in the next two to three years, particularly with improved mobile offerings. Zoopla Property Group, Rightmove’s rival in the UK online property duopoly, floated on the LSE in early 2014; both companies retain healthy growth prospects with pricing power stemming from a lack of credible competitors. In contrast, Guardian Media Group announced the sale of its 50.1% stake in Auto Trader to private equity group Apax in January. However, as the used car market starts to recover, the timing could be right in 2015 for Auto Trader to come back to the market in some form.

Our recruitment segment analysis focuses on the UK labour market’s continued improvement in 2014 while the outlook for 2015 and 2016 is still broadly positive. At the same time, the online recruitment market remains highly fragmented. On the advertiser side, the myriad of companies and positions being filled splinters the online market across a number of job boards while aggregator Indeed and professional network LinkedIn continue to grow market share. On the jobseekers side, professionals are increasingly being drawn to LinkedIn. We also see significant potential for category specific professional networks in certain recruitment verticals to continue building audiences and start attracting employer expenditure on recruitment advertising. LinkedIn has emerged as the biggest online supplier in the UK and exercises a degree of pricing power due to its audience scale, although competition remains intense. We project annual growth in online expenditure on recruitment to range between 4-8% to 2017, returning the total recruitment advertising market to low single digit growth as online gains gradually start to outstrip decline in print.

 

 

Internet, Media 7 November 2014
UK classifieds overview and recruitment category outlook

Our annual series of reports on expenditure on advertising in the classified verticals of jobs, property and autos, kicks off with an overview of the print-to-digital transition that has lifted the share of digital to close to 50% by 2012. The advantages of online for professional classified advertisers in relation to print include: national reach; measurability and tracking software; value-for-money for listings; dense user experience; and advertiser add-ons. Aside from the fragmented recruitment market, the UK’s online classified marketplaces for property and autos are highly consolidated around one or just two suppliers. Second-tier property supplier Zoopla Property Group is slated for an IPO in 2014 or in 2015, and the sale will be helped by the buoyant housing market. An IPO of AutoTrader is also widely expected, amidst a more general recovery of transactions in the sector. Our recruitment segment analysis highlights the more positive trends in the labour market in 2013, which are to continue in 2014 and 2015. However, the online recruitment market is highly fragmented on the advertiser side due to the myriad of companies and positions being filled, also splintering the online market across a large number of job boards, aggregated by Indeed. On the jobseekers side, professionals are increasingly being drawn to LinkedIn or category-specific professional networks, attracting employer expenditure on recruitment advertising. LinkedIn is the single biggest online supplier in the UK and is also the more dynamic through network effects and price competition on listings. We project about 5-7% annual growth of expenditure on online recruitment to 2017, amidst a terminal collapse in advertising in print.

Internet, Media 24 October 2013
UK classifieds overview and recruitment outlook

Since the onset of the recession in 2008-09, the revenues and profitability of the recruiters, auto dealers and estate agents which purchase print and online advertising media have been impaired by lower transaction volumes, putting pressure on advertising budgets. New digital marketing and communications requirements have further claimed budgets previously allocated to print, which will continue to decline in absolute and relative terms

Recruitment has been the classified vertical with the most rapid print-to-digital transition, to the detriment of regional newspapers mainly. Online offers national reach at a fraction of the cost per listing

Unlike autos or property, recruitment is a fragmented vertical across a number of large job boards and niche sites serving identifiable professions

  • DMGT
Internet, Media 15 October 2012
UK Commercial Radio

The liberalised ownership provisions in the Communications Act 2003 have facilitated consolidation of the commercial radio sector in the past year. Two top-tier groups have emerged in GCap Media and Emap, following its acquisition of Scottish Radio Holdings. The pressures for consolidation have become more acute in the past year due to the structural problems of the commercial radio sector and the advertising downturn. But assets have become more difficult to value due to the uncertain timing of the recovery in advertising and the prospect that radio will be edged out of national budgets by online. UK radio groups are increasingly cautious to buy and anxious to sell, and we also discount the prospect of a bid from a major US group, expecting instead keen competition for the 35 new licences Ofcom will be allocating in the next few years.

Media 4 October 2005
UK Commercial Radio

Modest progress has been made towards consolidation in commercial radio since we last reported on the issue in mid-2003. Although the new Communications Act has liberalised the ownership rules, the potential blocking role of the Competition Commission continues to be a restraining factor in the wake of the Galaxy/Vibe ruling. That ruling found that anti-competitive outcomes could emerge even if the ownership rules were respected and it has had a chilling effect on M&A activity.

Media 15 April 2004
UK Commercial Radio

The Communications Act heralds a brave new world for commercial radio... or does it? Although newly relaxed media ownership rules vastly increase the scope for consolidation, the competition authorities have already shown they will curb excessive concentrations of advertising selling power.

Media 22 July 2003
UK Commercial Radio Consolidation

Further consolidation could lie ahead for the UK commercial radio sector. EMAP is expected to offer its radio assets for sale and Scottish Media Group plans to divest Virgin Radio. The battleground is competition for listeners drawn by the BBC's increasingly popular national radio networks. This report however examines past consolidation, which produced substantial cost savings, without noticeably improving the commercial sector's fortunes. In our view, for consolidation to succeed in this regard, much greater attention will need to be paid to improving content

  • BBC
  • SMG
  • Virgin Media
Media, Music and Radio 18 September 2007
UK Commercial Radio Q1 2008

UK commercial radio revenues increased by 6.7% in Q1 2008 year-on-year, resulting in four consecutive quarters of growth for the first time since 2004

Media, Music and Radio 16 June 2008
UK Commercial Radio Q2 2008

UK commercial radio revenues fell by 10.2% in Q2 2008 year-on-year to £134.2 million, the sector’s lowest quarter since 2000. In Q3 2008, commercial radio revenues are expected to be down 9% year-on-year as advertisers, particularly those in the finance and food sectors, continue to respond to the economic gloom by cutting their radio marketing budgets

Media, Music and Radio 9 September 2008
UK Commercial Radio Q4 2007

UK commercial radio revenues increased by 7.1% in Q4 2007 year-on-year, driven by strong growth from national advertisers, while full-year 2007 revenues increased by 2.8% to £598.2 million

Media, Music and Radio 27 March 2008
UK Commercial Radio Update

This report updates our ongoing coverage of the UK commercial radio sector (UK Commercial Radio Q2 2008 [2008-84]), and includes our latest revenue forecasts for the period 2009-2013 (Table 1)

In the context of a UK recession that is proving to be deeper and longer than official forecasts had anticipated in 2008, we have severely downgraded our advertising forecasts. We now anticipate that, following the 6.4% decline in 2008 to £560.2 million, commercial radio advertising revenues will decline by a further 14.6% in 2009, to £478.2 million (compared to the peak of £641 million reached in 2004)

Media, Music and Radio 13 March 2009
UK commercial radio update 2011

After a bounceback of 3% in commercial radio consumption in 2010, we forecast a return to the long term trend of decline, at an average rate of around 1.2% a year, as young people increasingly turn to other music listening options

We forecast revenue growth in 2010 of +3.8% for 2010, despite the collapse of COI money, due to stronger private sector appetite for radio as an advertising medium

The removal of localness requirements and liberalisation of product placement rules should help improve the operating model of large industry groups like Global

Music and Radio, Media 24 February 2011
UK commercial radio – advertisers tuning in

In this report we present our latest analysis of the UK commercial radio sector. Impressive listening figures for the first half of 2011 should help commercial radio listening to increase by 3.2% in 2011, following a similar improvement last year. The advertising outlook is also promising: despite the retreat of the COI, we expect advertising revenues to grow by 3.0% in 2011, backed by a strong Q3. The shift towards branded networks should reduce operating costs and make it easier for advertisers to invest in radio, building on sales house consolidation in the late 2000s.

Music and Radio, Media 20 September 2011
UK commercial radio: sector update

This report provides an update on the UK commercial radio sector, covering listening trends, digital platforms, group strategies and advertising expenditure.

Over the last few years, Global Radio has cleverly exploited the regulatory framework to rebrand, merge and share programming across its stations, creating the quasi-national Heart and Capital networks and slashing its operating costs in the process. But Global appears to have misjudged the competition regulators’ attitude towards local media mergers in its purchase of GMG Radio and has been ordered to sell off eight stations in seven local markets.

With at least eight stations to be divested from the Global/GMG portfolio and Absolute Radio still potentially up for sale, hot on the heels of Bauer's recent acquisition of Planet Rock, the radio industry is in the midst of a new wave of M&A activity. This report assesses the performance of the leading commercial groups and the strategies they have employed in recent years.

Alongside the formation of branded networks, another key development has been the launch of digital spin-off stations, first by Absolute Radio and more recently by Smooth and Kiss. We also discuss the impact of DAB growth on listening behaviour, the continuing challenge of getting digital radio into cars and the potential for smartphone listening growth.

Music and Radio, Media 22 May 2013

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