Publications

Format: Nov 2018
sort descending Sector(s) Date
UK TV NAR bouncing back

After falling 16% across 2008 and 2009, UK TV NAR (net advertising revenue) looks like it will grow 10% year on year in 2010, amidst continued lack of visibility over the UK’s post election economic outlook

 

Ofcom’s consultation on the rules governing advertising proposes to scrap the withholding of advertising rule that applies to commercial analogue PSB channels, along with the conditional selling rule that applies to all broadcasters – neither action will have any short term material effect

Ahead of Ofcom is the different airtime quota and distribution rules that apply to commercial analogue PSB over other channels. Equalisation will favour the commercial PSB groups, but views diverge on where to equalise, up or down

 

TV, Media 8 April 2010
UK TV Production: Working for Netflix, Apple and the rest of the FAANGs

We interviewed the biggest hitters in the UK television production sector, asking them about the current issues affecting their industry, such as consolidation, Peak TV, and Nations and Regions quotas

Most pertinent, however, was the production sector’s relationship with the new buyers—Netflix, Amazon, Apple et al.—and how their approach to them differed for each one, as well as traditional broadcasters when pitching, negotiating deals or producing programmes

With views anonymised for candour, this report is an honest representation of an industry where quality and volume are both at an all-time high, despite the challenge of change brought about by these new players

  • Amazon
  • Apple
  • BBC
  • Channel 4
  • Facebook
  • Five
  • Google
  • ITV
  • Netflix
  • Sky
Telecoms, TV 11 May 2018
UK TV Trends

Our presentation UK TV Trends January 2006 [2006-01]* provides our most up-to-date views on three subjects:

Media 18 January 2006
UK TV Video-on-Demand

UK broadband network operators have begun full-scale deployment of video-on-demand (VOD) services. NTL/Telewest have almost completed the upgrade of their networks to enable homes in their footprint for VOD, hoping to achieve similar success as the US cablecos in the past five years. In 2006, BT is to launch its hybrid Freeview/VOD device to BT broadband customers and VOD will also be a part of the IPTV offers from Bulldog and Wanadoo UK. Is this enthusiasm for VOD in the UK warranted?

IPWireless’s TDtv technology offers an intriguing alternative, using otherwise spare spectrum, but it is the most costly technology to roll out, and the most underdeveloped in handset terms

Media 8 December 2005
UK TV Viewing Trends

This report covers some of the important developments in UK television viewing in the first half of 2003. It focuses on assessing the true number of Freeview homes, the encouraging progress of ITV2 and the potential impact of Sky’s PVR. We also look at the marked slowdown in the decline of ITV1 which, for the first time in recent memory, has seen yearly audience share increases in two of the last six months.

Media 29 September 2003
UK TV Viewing Trends (Issue 4)

This issue of our regular report on TV trends in the UK looks at pay-TV subscriber numbers, the position of Freeview, and the impact of the huge expansion in the number of digital channels. Our analysis tries to clear away the fog produced by problems with BARB data over the past year.

Media 24 February 2003
UK TV Viewing Trends - Issue 1

This report is the first of a quarterly series by Toby Syfret, one of Europe's best known commentators on viewing trends.

We believe it will opt for the BBC offering. This note shows why.

Media 7 March 2002
UK TV Viewing Trends - Issue 2

Despite the bad press it is receiving, the BARB TV viewing panel appears to us to be settling down and providing robust results. In this note, Toby Syfret shows that UK viewing trends now appear to be clear-cut and not artefacts of BARB panel design.

Media 5 June 2002
UK TV Viewing Trends - Issue 3

This is the third of our regular reports on UK TV viewing. The report contains details to support the following assertions

The operators were hoping that the CC would soften Oftel's seemingly tough proposals (RPI-12% price cap); it seems most likely now that they will actually toughen them, incorporating a one-off cut in the new regime, which we estimate would negatively impact industry EBITDA by just over 10%. The process will, however, be far from over: we predict at least one legal challenge ahead, possibly several, delaying the implementation for many months into next year (EC legislation comes into force on the 24th July 2003 which may delay matters even further).

Media 14 October 2002
UK video-on-demand forecasts to 2015

This presentation details our assessment of the UK prospects for video-on-demand advertising through to 2015, covering through-the-middle and over-the-top services

While video-on-demand consumption is set to grow strongly, particularly to the TV, linear broadcast services, supported by PVR timeshift, will continue to account for over 90% of viewing to the TV and PC/ tablet over the next five years. As a result, we forecast that VOD advertising will equate to 7% of TV NAR by 2015, with current high prices for in-stream video ads falling as it becomes more integrated with TV airtime sales

Internet, TV, Media 1 August 2011
UKTV - from pay to free

UKTV has continued its strong audience performance throughout 2015, and with Dave and Drama the company now has the two largest channels outside the PSBs

Growth has been driven by the effective use of the DTT platform with UKTV positioning its DTT channels to take advantage of the platform’s audience profile and sheer volume of viewing

Assuming UKTV maintains its commissioning spend we expect continued growth on free-to-air, but question marks remain on some of its more niche pay-TV channels

  • UKTV
Media, Telecoms, TV, UK Media 9 December 2015
UKTV 2016 results: viewing continues to climb, what awaits online?

2016 was another good year for UKTV, with appreciable growth in revenue and linear viewing share; a trajectory the product of a sensitive pay/free balance of its channels, investment in productive EPG slots and development of its original programming suite

Recent deals with both Sky and Channel 4 will go some way to providing financial stability, allowing UKTV to invest with more certainty in new content and encouraging further development of its online proposition

UKTV Play has underperformed, chiefly due to a lack of content. But with plans to significantly ramp up both its offering and marketing spend, it may well unlock further audiences; specifically targeting elusive 16-34 year-olds

  • UKTV
Media, TV, UK Media 19 May 2017
UKTV bucking the viewing trends - 2014 results

UKTV 2014 results show a 2% increase in total revenues and a 10% year-on-year increase in EBITDA to £74.1 million, though the costs associated with the launch of Drama in 2013 will have contributed to the higher EBITDA increase

The 2% total revenue increase is surprisingly low, since we would have expected a circa 8-9% increase in UKTV’s main advertising revenue stream in 2014 due to a 5.4% increase in total TV NAR on top of a 2.9% growth in UKTV adult SOCI during 2013, with the lagged revenue benefits accruing in 2014

Whilst the outlook for 2015 appears very promising, the focus is now on investment in content, above all on new commissions, as a driver of revenue and audience share now that the factors behind UKTV’s successful rise since the Freeview launch in 2002 have largely played out

  • UKTV
Media, TV, UK Media 29 May 2015
UKTV on the up and up

UKTV has posted annual figures showing record revenues of £278 million in 2013, with the promise of more to come after an H1 2014 that has seen it overtake Channel 4 main channel in adult 16+ Share of Commercial Impact (SOCI) delivery and now closing in on Sky and Channel 5.

The rise in adult 16+ SOCI every year since the Freeview launch in 2002 reflects not only UKTV’s preparedness to invest more in content over time, but also management focus on EPG prominence on the free-to-air and pay platforms and unceasing willingness to try new channel ideas.

The challenge now facing the UKTV group is how to maintain growth in an increasingly connected TV landscape. Innovative UKTV Play notwithstanding, the big question comes down to content strategy and the scale of future investment.

TV, Media 7 September 2014
UKTV viewing still on the rise - 2015 results

2015 has been a very good year, with revenues up 13%, helped by buoyant market conditions, in which TV spot advertising revenues increased by 7%. EBITDA also increased by £8 million in spite of an extra £25 million spent on programming

2015 saw UKTV overtake Sky to become the non-PSB channel group with the highest advertising Share of Commercial Impact (SOCI) delivery among adults 16+, while Q1 figures suggest the gap will widen in 2016

The horizon beyond 2016 is less clear as further revenue growth will rely much more on organic factors, in which respect UKTV’s online offering UKTV Play has much promising potential, if it can be realised

  • UKTV
Media, TV 21 April 2016
Under pressure: TalkTalk Group Q1 2016/17 results

TalkTalk reported net losses in broadband (-9k), with likely negative pressure on line rental, and weakness also in TV (-23k) although fibre (+36k) and mobile (+48k) net adds remained strong. Ahead of insight from competitor performances, the figures suggest a challenging quarter for the operator

Group revenue growth improved 1.3ppts to -0.4% owing to particularly strong carrier revenues, an inconsistent revenue stream. This was in spite of slowing consumer revenue growth (-1.2ppts to -2.5%) partly owing to cyber-attack related impacts

The concerted strategic shift away from being a price discounter to a fuller featured value for money provider may well encounter similarly challenging quarters in a highly competitive market where rivals have larger marketing budgets and offer deep discounts

  • TalkTalk
Fixed Line, Telecoms 26 July 2016
Universal Music - Valuation

Universal Music is an important component of Vivendi’s business. As M. Fourtou shuffles his cards, the disposal or flotation of Universal becomes more likely by the day and this report values this market-leading record company.

Media 5 December 2002
Universal Music H1 2003 Results

Universal Music is the world’s largest music company, but has not been immune from the savage downturn in the industry. This note provides our sales projections for the company and places an approximate valuation on the business of $5bn, down significantly from last year.

Media 8 October 2003
Untapped not tapped out: The Over 50s: systemic consumption and marketing misalignment
More than one third of the UK population is over 50 and this cohort is projected to keep growing. They account for substantial wealth, assets and expenditure, and reveal active multimedia engagement, providing real opportunities for brands 
 
Given their outsize impact, we believe the marketing industry underappreciates the diversity of habits among the over 50s. While 50-65s’ habits and consumer behaviour increasingly resemble that of younger cohorts, their spending power is far greater; expectations from products and services are higher and yet the placement, format and tone of marketing feels misaligned 
 
Online is a huge enabler that can help drive, shape and inform how over 50s spend their substantial wealth. But that can only be done effectively with a clearer understanding of behaviour and level of responsiveness to messages across media, from print to TV to online
  • Facebook
  • Google
Internet, Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms, TV, UK Media 14 September 2016
Update on 3G in Japan

This note updates on 3G in Japan [2004-24] after visits to NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and Vodafone Japan, and recent announcements in advance of Vodafone’s investor day next week. We conclude that the market's outlook remains poor and, in particular, Vodafone Japan will struggle.

 

 

 

Telecoms, Mobile 21 September 2004

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