Publications

Format: Dec 2017
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US music publishing royalties for 2018-22

The “fair return” to US music publishers and songwriters for rights used by interactive streaming services will be decided in 2017 by the Copyright Royalty Board (CRB)

Rights owners want to switch to a fixed per-stream or per-user rate on all tiers, arguing music has an inherent value. Apple is asking for a much lower per-stream rate

Amazon, Google, Spotify and Pandora warn of disruption to free and ad-supported tiers if the revenue-share tariff is not rolled over, and the CRB could side with them

  • Amazon
  • Apple
  • Bertelsmann
  • Sony
  • Spotify
  • Vivendi
  • YouTube
Media, Music and Radio 8 June 2017
US music publishing 2014-17

The US music publishing market, worth $2.2 billion in 2013, is poised for moderate CAGR of 2.5% in the period 2014-17, thanks to performance royalty growth from broadcast and new media uses, offsetting flat mechanicals as the physical-to-digital transition in recorded music continues to place pressure on this revenue line

ASCAP and BMI, the performance rights organisations, have been engaged in an intense period of litigation against Pandora, the popular ad-supported streaming service with around 80 million users, in which Pandora has prevailed

ASCAP and BMI have also sought to loosen the consent decree regime in place since 1941 and overseen by the Department of Justice in order to enable "market-driven" rates, but this effort also looks set to fail in light of the firm opposition of all classes of licensees

  • Bertelsmann
  • Vivendi
Media, Music and Radio 11 May 2015
US music publishers reach royalty agreements

US music publishers have reached agreement on rolling over the mechanical royalties due on sales of digital and physical music formats for 2013-17

The expanded scope of the statute to cover ‘scan and match’ cloud locker services, such as Apple’s iTunes Match, provides incremental revenues to music publishers; the unlicensed ‘storage’ cloud locker services are not concerned

ASCAP’s agreement on US radio performance royalties will however reduce music publisher revenues

  • Vivendi
Media, Music and Radio, Non-UK Media 24 April 2012
US mechanical rates outcome – the status quo prevails

The Copyright Royalty Board ruling issued on 2nd October gives the US music industry certainty on the statutory mechanical royalty rates payable to music publishers for 2008-2012

Media, Music and Radio, Non-UK Media 11 October 2008
US ISPs hail the end of online privacy rules

The Federal Communications Commission’s Privacy Order (FCC) was overturned by the Senate, clearing the way for ISPs to ramp up consumer data-driven advertising revenue

While Google and Facebook dominate digital advertising in the US as in other markets, the US is alone in removing regulatory barriers to ISPs taking a piece of the pie

US ISPs now have a self-regulatory regime for consumer rights on transparency, security and data breaches; but in the UK and EU, privacy advocates prefer enforceable rights

  • Cable & Wireless
  • Facebook
  • Google
Internet, Media, Mobile, Telecoms 9 October 2017
US entertainment groups and consolidation

US entertainment groups have enjoyed strong revenue growth thanks to pay-TV, subscription video-on-demand and international sales, despite headwinds on the advertising market and downward pressures on retail pay-TV prices

Media merger and acquisitions have mainly failed, but strengthening the hand of the content producers in relation to distribution channels remains relevant and arguably even more important due to the sheer financial and audience size of digital operators, although the studios' pricing power remains unchallenged

21st Century Fox could then justify a new bid for Time Warner, although it will struggle to address TW's objections to the previous offer without taking on a huge pile of debt

  • 21st Century Fox
  • Turner
Media 27 November 2015
US digital music sales in 2006

US digital music sales continue to perform well, despite press reports to the contrary, with the average weekly volume of tracks sold up 75% in 2006, supported by steady sales of iPods

Media, Music and Radio, Non-UK Media 21 December 2006
US and UK: Cord-cutting-shaving-nevering

Cord-cutting has become a major headache for US pay-TV operators in the last three years, while cable network channels face further erosion due to cord-shaving and we now see a rapidly growing population of cord-nevering households that have never taken a pay-TV subscription  

Should we expect it to be only a matter of time for the UK to follow the US? The short answer is no, due to major differences in the pay-TV market infrastructures of the two countries, which leave the UK much less exposed

However, downward pressures from the online space do exist in both countries, while the big cord-cutting-shaving-nevering threat we now see in the UK has most of all to do with the chill Brexit winds on the economy

  • BBC
  • BT
  • Channel 4
  • ITV
  • Netflix
  • Ofcom
  • Sky
  • TalkTalk
  • Virgin Media
Media, Non UK Media, UK Media 12 August 2016
US and UK TV ad markets - apples and pears

The US is seeing steep decline in measured TV viewing by younger age-groups and rapid increase in digital media adspend, prompting fears about the future of TV ad revenues across the major broadcasters and cable networks. The UK has seen similar trends, prompting suggestions that it will see similar effects

However, comparison of US and UK TV ad revenue trends since 2000 shows big differences in the underlying growth rates after taking economic factors into account. These undermine the inference that the decline in viewing and rise in digital adspend will have similar effects on either side of the Atlantic

Examination of the US and UK TV ad markets further points to big differences across a raft of major variables relating to supply and airtime trading practice, such as can be expected to yield very different outcomes with respect to TV ad revenue growth

  • 21st Century Fox
  • Channel 4
  • Discovery
  • Five
  • ITV
  • NBC Universal
  • Turner
  • Viacom
Non-UK Media, Media, TV, UK Media 7 May 2015
Update on KPN’s fibre roll-out

In The Netherlands, KPN faces strong competitive pressure on voice and broadband from cable operators historically addressing subscription TV services due to their superior fibre/coax networks – KPN needs to upgrade its ADSL network to increase IPTV coverage and bandwidth to compete effectively on the triple play

KPN is pursuing a multi-technology approach to its network upgrade, deploying VDSL over the existing copper access network as a ‘transitional’ solution, accompanied by deployment of FTTC and FTTH. Currently, 13% of Dutch homes are passed by fibre, with KPN setting a ‘medium term’ coverage target of 30-60% of households

KPN says that FTTC and FTTH trial results show material increases in ARPU and market share, supporting the case for deployment. KPN is assuming entirely the costs of FTTC, but the investment in more expensive FTTH is being made by joint venture KPN-Reggefiber, whose need for finance in mid-2010 will require it to convince debt markets of its business plan for FTTH

Telecoms, Fixed Line, Non-UK Telecoms 22 December 2009
Update on BSkyB forecasts

All the recent attention to BSkyB has had to do with the proposed News Corporation takeover and its impact on the share price. For the BSkyB business itself, we think the troubles of News International have so far had very little effect, as there is nothing to link the pay-TV operator Sky directly with the News of the World, the epicentre of the current judicial and political storm. Nothing, that is, apart from the Murdoch factor, which certainly seemed to do no harm to sales of the final News of the World edition on Sunday 10 July which topped 4.5 million.

In our view a bigger concern for BSkyB is the impact of the current squeeze on consumer spending. This may best explain the press release of 8 July, which announced both the launch of Sky Go as an added TV Anywhere extra to Sky customers at no extra cost to their existing packages and the freezing of package prices until 31 August 2012.

  • Sky
  • News Corp
Fixed Line, Telecoms, TV, Media 11 July 2011
Update on 3G in Japan

This note updates on 3G in Japan [2004-24] after visits to NTT DoCoMo, KDDI and Vodafone Japan, and recent announcements in advance of Vodafone’s investor day next week. We conclude that the market's outlook remains poor and, in particular, Vodafone Japan will struggle.

 

 

 

Telecoms, Mobile 21 September 2004
Untapped not tapped out: The Over 50s: systemic consumption and marketing misalignment
More than one third of the UK population is over 50 and this cohort is projected to keep growing. They account for substantial wealth, assets and expenditure, and reveal active multimedia engagement, providing real opportunities for brands 
 
Given their outsize impact, we believe the marketing industry underappreciates the diversity of habits among the over 50s. While 50-65s’ habits and consumer behaviour increasingly resemble that of younger cohorts, their spending power is far greater; expectations from products and services are higher and yet the placement, format and tone of marketing feels misaligned 
 
Online is a huge enabler that can help drive, shape and inform how over 50s spend their substantial wealth. But that can only be done effectively with a clearer understanding of behaviour and level of responsiveness to messages across media, from print to TV to online
  • Facebook
  • Google
Internet, Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms, TV, UK Media 14 September 2016
Universal Music H1 2003 Results

Universal Music is the world’s largest music company, but has not been immune from the savage downturn in the industry. This note provides our sales projections for the company and places an approximate valuation on the business of $5bn, down significantly from last year.

Media 8 October 2003
Universal Music - Valuation

Universal Music is an important component of Vivendi’s business. As M. Fourtou shuffles his cards, the disposal or flotation of Universal becomes more likely by the day and this report values this market-leading record company.

Media 5 December 2002
Under pressure: TalkTalk Group Q1 2016/17 results

TalkTalk reported net losses in broadband (-9k), with likely negative pressure on line rental, and weakness also in TV (-23k) although fibre (+36k) and mobile (+48k) net adds remained strong. Ahead of insight from competitor performances, the figures suggest a challenging quarter for the operator

Group revenue growth improved 1.3ppts to -0.4% owing to particularly strong carrier revenues, an inconsistent revenue stream. This was in spite of slowing consumer revenue growth (-1.2ppts to -2.5%) partly owing to cyber-attack related impacts

The concerted strategic shift away from being a price discounter to a fuller featured value for money provider may well encounter similarly challenging quarters in a highly competitive market where rivals have larger marketing budgets and offer deep discounts

  • TalkTalk
Fixed Line, Telecoms 26 July 2016
UKTV viewing still on the rise - 2015 results

2015 has been a very good year, with revenues up 13%, helped by buoyant market conditions, in which TV spot advertising revenues increased by 7%. EBITDA also increased by £8 million in spite of an extra £25 million spent on programming

2015 saw UKTV overtake Sky to become the non-PSB channel group with the highest advertising Share of Commercial Impact (SOCI) delivery among adults 16+, while Q1 figures suggest the gap will widen in 2016

The horizon beyond 2016 is less clear as further revenue growth will rely much more on organic factors, in which respect UKTV’s online offering UKTV Play has much promising potential, if it can be realised

  • UKTV
Media, TV 21 April 2016
UKTV on the up and up

UKTV has posted annual figures showing record revenues of £278 million in 2013, with the promise of more to come after an H1 2014 that has seen it overtake Channel 4 main channel in adult 16+ Share of Commercial Impact (SOCI) delivery and now closing in on Sky and Channel 5.

The rise in adult 16+ SOCI every year since the Freeview launch in 2002 reflects not only UKTV’s preparedness to invest more in content over time, but also management focus on EPG prominence on the free-to-air and pay platforms and unceasing willingness to try new channel ideas.

The challenge now facing the UKTV group is how to maintain growth in an increasingly connected TV landscape. Innovative UKTV Play notwithstanding, the big question comes down to content strategy and the scale of future investment.

TV, Media 7 September 2014
UKTV bucking the viewing trends - 2014 results

UKTV 2014 results show a 2% increase in total revenues and a 10% year-on-year increase in EBITDA to £74.1 million, though the costs associated with the launch of Drama in 2013 will have contributed to the higher EBITDA increase

The 2% total revenue increase is surprisingly low, since we would have expected a circa 8-9% increase in UKTV’s main advertising revenue stream in 2014 due to a 5.4% increase in total TV NAR on top of a 2.9% growth in UKTV adult SOCI during 2013, with the lagged revenue benefits accruing in 2014

Whilst the outlook for 2015 appears very promising, the focus is now on investment in content, above all on new commissions, as a driver of revenue and audience share now that the factors behind UKTV’s successful rise since the Freeview launch in 2002 have largely played out

  • UKTV
Media, TV, UK Media 29 May 2015
UKTV 2016 results: viewing continues to climb, what awaits online?

2016 was another good year for UKTV, with appreciable growth in revenue and linear viewing share; a trajectory the product of a sensitive pay/free balance of its channels, investment in productive EPG slots and development of its original programming suite

Recent deals with both Sky and Channel 4 will go some way to providing financial stability, allowing UKTV to invest with more certainty in new content and encouraging further development of its online proposition

UKTV Play has underperformed, chiefly due to a lack of content. But with plans to significantly ramp up both its offering and marketing spend, it may well unlock further audiences; specifically targeting elusive 16-34 year-olds

  • UKTV
Media, TV, UK Media 19 May 2017

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