Publications

Format: Jun 2018
sort ascending Sector(s) Date
BBC Green Paper: red alert on funding

Non-subscribers can download this report in full - alongside all our other coverage of the BBC during the Charter Review process - from the 'BBC Charter Review' page of our site.

The DCMS Green Paper on BBC Charter Review promises a nit-picking examination of all the BBC does, where the focus will be on how to redefine its mission as well as reform and/or improve BBC services in the internet age

A central theme is the scale of the BBC. The Green Paper underlines the “dramatic” expansion of BBC services in the last 20 years, and questions whether there is still a need for the current breadth and universality of the BBC’s offering in the online world of greatly expanded choice

Among the future BBC funding options laid out in the Green Paper, the suggestion of a mixed public funding and subscription model raises serious concerns with regard to its potential negative impact on the commercial television sector

  • BBC
Media, TV, UK Media 30 July 2015
Battle for Kabel Deutschland

Germany’s fixed line market is in state of flux as Liberty Global and Vodafone, the third and fourth largest players respectively, are reportedly engaged in a bidding war for Kabel Deutschland (currently number two).

The Vodafone bid would offer the most direct cost synergies, but this would be at greater execution risk. The Liberty bid would finally reunify most of the German cable sector, but would consequently need stronger undertakings to get anti-trust clearance.

Either merger would create a strong number two triple play operator, increasing competitive pressure on Deutsche Telekom and Sky Deutschland.

  • Vodafone
  • Sky Deutschland
Fixed Line, Telecoms 19 June 2013
BARB's eye view of Netflix

Netflix has always been highly secretive and released very few details about its international streaming performance in individual countries beyond the general statement that it is seeing encouraging progress everywhere

Now at last we can assess Netflix growth trends in the UK with a high degree of confidence as a result of a question added to the BARB ES questionnaire at the beginning of 2014, which is administered to large quarterly samples of 13,500 respondents

On the basis of BARB ES results for Q1 2014, we have revised our UK growth estimates upwards, believing Netflix paid for subscriptions to be above the 3 million mark as it heads into central Europe. Also most striking is Netflix’s popularity among younger households – clearly the cool thing to have

Internet, TV, Media 7 August 2014
Back to being Apple computer

iPod revenue (quarterly, year-on-year) declined for the first time. Even though unit sales were up 24% year-on-year, the average iPod price was down 20%. Apple group revenue growth is increasingly dependent on Mac sales and new product launches, like Apple TV (March 2007) and the iPhone (in June 2007)

  • Apple
Media, Music and Radio 29 April 2007
Away from home: The online challenge for PSBs

On TV, UK public service broadcasters (PSBs) have operated within a privileged ecosystem; a guaranteed electronic programme guide (EPG) prominence placing their channels at the forefront, helping sustain their market share and spawning digital families

But technological changes within the TV set are eroding this prominence, and on devices, such structural advantages are non-existent

To confront dramatically falling mobile engagement, despite consistently excellent content, the PSBs need to collaborate and replicate their privileged linear position or they will struggle against the major SVOD players

  • BBC
  • Channel 4
  • ITV
Media, TV 14 April 2016
AutoTrader and auto classified outlook

The third of our four reports on specialist advertising focuses on the automotive sector and AutoTrader's role at the heart of the dealer ecosystem

The used car market has been remarkably resilient in recent years, but as with many classified categories the core trend in digital is diversification to a suite of services from a core listings model

AutoTrader's owners Apax Partners and Guardian Media Group will of course be considering their options in terms of an exit from their investment

  • Guardian Media Group
Internet, Media 18 October 2012
Auto Trader IPO: driving home advantage

Auto Trader’s long-touted IPO has valued the car sales platform at £2.4bn, 17x EBITDA, matching Zoopla multiples but substantially lower than Rightmove’s 23x Auto Trader is both the most successful print to digital transition – and has also built the widest moat of any specialist classified service – that we have seen, and not just in the UK The near term market for used cars in the UK looks quite buoyant. However, some signs of slowdown in Auto Trader usage and slower longer term growth in the used car market provides some uncertainty further out

Internet, Media 23 March 2015
Auto classified marketplace

Print advertising in the autos classifieds marketplace keeps declining, but significant continued online growth steadies the helm

Five years on from new car financing innovations, and exasperated by changes in consumer behaviour towards greener tech, the used car market is braced for a flood

Auto Trader’s competitors force it to keep innovating, although having saturated the market, its dominance gives it enough headroom to worry about the weather breaking

  • Auto Trader
  • Facebook
  • Google
Non-UK Media, Media, Non UK Media 14 December 2017
Auto classified advertising 2013

Auto is the third category in our annual series of reports in UK classified advertising, following UK classifieds and recruitment category outlook [2013-090] and Property classified advertising [2013-091]. Our Auto market report analyses the key drivers in the communications marketplace for used cars, notably transaction volumes and pricing. Overall the auto market is reasonably stable, with new car sales picking up substantially in recent months, while used car sales are roughly flat. AutoTrader remains the big beast in the marketplace, having closed its print product and now focused on developing its digital services alongside its core search. Our report analyses media usage by Car Dealers, and provides five year expenditure forecasts.

Internet, Media 24 October 2013
Auto classified advertising

Auto is the third category in our annual series of reports on UK classified advertising, following UK classifieds and recruitment category outlook [2014-094] and Property classified advertising [2014-098]. In this year’s report we analyse the key drivers in the communications marketplace for used cars, notably transaction volumes and pricing. Overall the auto market is relatively buoyant, with the post-recession new car sales boom starting to feed into used car revenues in 2014, although the sustainability of this credit fuelled growth is far from certain. Auto Trader remains the big beast in the marketplace after Guardian Media Group sold its 50.1% stake to Apax Partners earlier this year. Apax will likely be considering an IPO or sale, particularly as market conditions look favourable in 2015 and Auto Trader’s strong leadership position looks largely unchallenged.

Internet, Media 21 November 2014
Augmented reality: Apple’s next 10-year bet

Through innovations in processing, connectivity and cameras, Apple’s new device lineup dispels fears that the importance of integrated, profitable mobile hardware is in terminal decline

With the broadest range of iPhone price points ever, Apple is confidently balancing between profits and growing the valuable installed base

Apple’s long way to an AR future is now well paved, but a weakness in mapping could prove to be an Achilles heel

  • Apple
  • Google
  • Samsung
  • Walt Disney
Media, Technology, Telecoms 20 September 2017
Audiovisual advertising blues 2007

Television advertising revenues fell by nearly 7% and radio advertising by more than 4% in 2006 according to latest market estimates. We expect declines of around 4% for both media in 2007

TV, Media, Music and Radio 4 January 2007
Article 50 triggers Brexit in 2019

The UK intends to exit the EU on 29 March 2019 and will submit the hoped-for agreement on a new strategic partnership with the EU to a vote in Parliament

The EU and the UK agree to seek an early settlement on the rights of 4 million nationals and the Irish border. Incentives diverge on the size of the UK’s Brexit bill

Unless a withdrawal agreement is reached, the EU will balk at starting talks on the UK’s desired free trade agreement (FTA), making a hard Brexit more likely than not

Brexit, Media 30 March 2017
Apple’s results, the iPhone and Android

Apple is now a $108bn company, with annual revenue up 66% from a year ago and 40% gross margins. September quarter iPhone sales dipped to 17m ahead of a new product launch, but Apple still sold 72m in the last 12m, compared to 40m in the 12m to September 2010

Apple has now sold 40m iPads for $20.3bn revenue, and 11m in the last quarter. All other competing devices have sold perhaps 4m. We expect Apple’s dominance to continue through 2012 and potentially beyond

Google’s Android sold even more smartphones than Apple, activating 150m in the last 12m and 55m in the September quarter. Yet in October Apple sold 4m of the new iPhone 4S in just three days, bringing in around $2.6bn: Google’s annual run-rate mobile revenue is now $2.5bn

  • Google
  • Apple
Mobile, Telecoms, Technology, Media 19 October 2011
Apple’s iPods: reaching maturity?

Apple revealed an updated iPod range to stimulate demand in the run up to the all important Christmas quarter, when iPod revenues typically account for 50% of Apple’s totals

  • Apple
Media, Music and Radio 9 September 2007
Apple: The power of music

Apple’s hardware-driven strategy for music recently passed two major milestones, with 10 billion paid track downloads and 250 million iPods sold

In 2009, Apple ‘returned’ to record labels and publishers roughly $1.9 billion, while generating gross profits in the region of $3.2 billion from the sale of iPods and music

Of wider significance to Apple is the music strategy’s contribution to building a mass market brand and expanding its customer base, helping to drive adoption of their computers and, more recently, the iPhone

  • Apple
Music and Radio, Media 3 March 2010
Apple: everything going right?

In the March 2011 quarter Apple’s revenue was up 83% year-on-year and net income up 95%. iPhone sales are up 113% and the iPad has sold 19.5m units in the last 12 months. Even the ‘legacy’ Mac business grew 32%, and Apple now has over $65bn cash in the bank. Not bad for a niche business

With single digit penetration in its core growth businesses, Apple has the opportunity to continue growing fast for some time to come

The threat from Google’s Android is real but limited: we expect Android to take a large part of the mid range phone market but that Apple will retain and extend its competitive advantage for tablets and high end phones

  • Google
  • Apple
Mobile, Telecoms, Media 12 May 2011
Apple: ecosystem upgrade

Apple has upgraded its iPod family and also iTunes, which now includes new social networking features, and revamped Apple TV, now reinvented as a streaming-only device at a fraction of its former price

We expect iPod sales volumes to continue to slide despite the update, but estimate that improved ARPU will add $600 million to Apple’s topline in FY2011. However, iPhones and Macs are the company’s key revenue drivers

The revisions to Apple TV should drive up sales, but the content offering remains weak (especially outside the US) and it is joining an already crowded playing field – its main benefit is likely to be supporting the Apple ecosystem

 

  • Apple
Media 5 September 2010
Apple, television and disruption

The Apple rumour mill turns to television, with widespread speculation that Apple will shortly announce… something, that will offer a different approach to the TV experience.

 However, if Apple distributes TV content in new ways, it will need to work with existing channels and often pay providers, who are unlikely to enable fundamental disruption to their business models.

 We see plenty of scope for Apple to make a great TV product – which need not necessarily be an actual television. But we see far less scope for it to break apart the value chain of TV content – and Apple doesn’t need to

  • Sky
  • Apple
Fixed Line, Telecoms, TV, Media 5 June 2012
Apple, Samsung, Patents and Android

A US jury has found Samsung infringed Apple’s patents with Android products and awarded $1bn damages. This is 17% of Samsung’s Q2 operating profit and would be crippling to any other Android OEM: it sends ripples of uncertainty through the ecosystem.

We expect the verdict to accelerate IP licensing between Apple and other Android OEMs, with Apple (like Nokia and other IP holders) levying a fee per device, though Google’s ownership of Motorola may mitigate this somewhat.

However, major changes in the Android proposition are unlikely to be necessary, and as long as the iPhone ASP is $650 and Android is $300 or below, market share is unlikely to shift much. Absent a cheaper iPhone, Android will continue to outsell iPhone 3:1 at much lower prices, especially outside the USA.

  • Google
  • Apple
Technology, Telecoms 30 August 2012

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