Mobile Handset Market - New Handset Trends
In this short note, we look at trends in mobile design and features. We show that the steady decline in size and weight is now over, and manufacturers are focusing on adding new functions, such as digital cameras, and even, in one case, a thermometer.
In this issue, Toby looks at recent evidence on UK multichannel viewing, particularly in the period immediately prior to the start of the new BARB audience panel.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
November 2001 Access this report
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Mobile Handset Market - Q3 Update
Nokia's recent guidance suggested a modest recovery in handset sales in 2002, followed by a strong resurgence thereafter. We think the position will be different and look for unit sales of about 450m next year, with only 3-7% growth in the years 2003-2005.
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Mobile, Telecoms |
December 2001 Access this report
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Microsoft Windows XP
Microsoft XP has wider significance than most analysts appreciate. While the operating system is, in itself, not a huge advance on existing products - particularly Windows 2000 - its true significance lies in its value as a Trojan Horse for Microsoft .NET. As we indicated in the spring of this year, we think .NET moves Microsoft into direct competition with businesses as diverse as ISPs, mobile network operators and home electronics companies. Widespread adoption of XP makes the eventual success of .NET more secure
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Media, Internet |
December 2001 Access this report
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Regional Newspapers
The regional newspaper business in the UK is a mature industry with improved operating management and a small number of powerful players.
The bulk of the report examines in detail the structural forces determining the growth of ISPs in Wanadoo's main territories - France and the UK. It looks at the scope for raising revenues through broadband growth, increased advertising or e-commerce revenues. We look at market shares, and the factors that drive growth and decline. |
Media |
December 2001 Access this report
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Mobile Operators - ARPU Trends
In this note we summarise the available evidence on trends in ARPU among European mobile operators. We demonstrate the increasing trend towards stable or increasing revenue per subscriber in key markets. The end to the long downward trend in voice ARPU is clearly in sight. This new stability is derived from increasingly firm call charges and slow growth in minutes of use. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
December 2001 Access this report
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French TV Market
This report contains our analysis of the French TV market. France, like the UK, is a difficult market for pay-TV and, recently, for some analogue terrestrial channels as well. We look at the analogies and differences between the two countries. In both places, excess competition and declining advertising revenues are beginning to create cracks in the noble edifices of the major TV groups. As in the UK, we conclude that analogue commercial TV may be less affected by digitalisation and pay-TV than most analysts expect. |
Media |
December 2001 Access this report
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UK Internet Trends
15 million UK adults regularly (at least once a month) accessed the Internet from home in Q3 2001, the same as in Q2 2001. This stagnation is due to mainly seasonal factors and we expect growth of the home Internet population to be renewed in the autumn and winter. |
Media |
December 2001 Access this report
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Alleged 25% Drop in ITV Viewing
The flow of news about ITV is going from bad to worse. But we think that the market may have misunderstood the real story behind last week's bombshell that ITV viewing has fallen by 25% in a year. This figure could have been predicted from existing data. |
Media |
January 2002 Access this report
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Cable vs DSL?
This report is a companion to Broadband Europe (2002-02), issued concurrently, and looks more closely at cable’s ability to compete with incumbents on marketing broadband. Key points include: |
Telecoms |
January 2002 Access this report
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Broadband Europe
The potential for residential broadband connectivity in France, Germany and the UK depends on the availability of low-priced broadband products (hardware, installation and monthly subscriptions) and a narrow pricing gap with existing Internet access packages. Unless monthly subscriptions fall below €30 (from current comparable levels of €45 and up) and hassle-free self-installation is ubiquitous, consumers will not migrate from narrowband, even if they appreciate the faster surfing and download speeds of broadband. |
Telecoms |
January 2002 Access this report
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Mobile Operators - The Pricing of Calls to Mobiles
The charges imposed by the mobile operators for handling incoming calls are a very important part of their revenue stream. The UK telecoms regulator is attempting to force the networks to reduce their prices significantly. The row has just been referred to the UK competition authorities. We look at the arguments used by Oftel to justify its harsh stance. We conclude that the evidence supports the regulator's view that incoming call charges are held artificially high. As a result, analysts should expect that the UK networks will fail to see the charge cap reversed. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
January 2002 Access this report
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Oftel Report on Broadband
This brief note concerns further evidence of strong price sensitivity to broadband prices, as provided by Oftel's recent qualitative research. Since we expect an announcement from BT Group on February 26th regarding reduction of DSL wholesale prices to levels consistent with retail pricing of £30/month or slightly less, this is topical. In addition, we point to BTopenworld's very high market share (75% plus) in residential DSL installations so far. |
Media, Telecoms |
February 2002 Access this report
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NTL - Can the Restructuring Work?
The painful restructuring process at NTL is probably well underway. Holders of NTL bonds will have to accept a significant reduction in the nominal value of their holdings. To us, the crucial question is how much debt the slimmed-down UK businesses of NTL can afford to have on the balance sheet. If everything goes right, the number is something over £3 billion. But things will not go right, and the underlying debt capacity of NTL is probably considerably less than a billion pounds. |
Telecoms |
February 2002 Access this report
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European Mobile Operators - Mobile Data
The mobile operators in the UK and elsewhere probably make a higher margin on SMS than on any other product. We think that about 30% of a UK operator's gross margin in derived from SMS and the percentage is rising. This report asks the question 'why should mobile operators launch any other mobile data products aimed at consumers?'. SMS now generates about £800 per megabyte of traffic. GPRS prices fall to about £1 per megabyte to heavy users. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2002 Access this report
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Sky's Operating Performance
Sky's continued excellent performance has attracted favourable comment in the weeks since its half yearly results. But much of the commentary missed some critical points. The analysts did not question Sky's assertions that it was successfully targeting high value customers. Actually, the last half-year saw a fall in the numbers taking the top-priced package. Similarly, few commentators noticed that despite the favourable comments in the results announcement, interactive revenues actually fell last quarter. |
Media |
February 2002 Access this report
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UK Internet Trends - Q4 2001
The UK Internet population continued to grow very slowly in the fall of 2001, reaching 14.7 million home users (30% adult penetration rate). Although this slow pace of customer growth may give dot.com investors pause for concern, we found some good news on e-tailing to report, such as higher numbers of purchasers - to almost 9 million - and positive experiences online that will lead to repeat shopping. Books, clothes, DVDs and computer games were especially popular items. |
Media |
February 2002 Access this report
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UK TV Viewing Trends - Issue 1
This report is the first of a quarterly series by Toby Syfret, one of Europe's best known commentators on viewing trends.
We believe it will opt for the BBC offering. This note shows why. |
Media |
March 2002 Access this report
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Telewest
Telewest has drawn away from its key competitor in terms of UK performance. However, we still believe Telewest's bonds are worth less than 50% of their face value. This note explains why. |
Media, Telecoms |
March 2002 Access this report
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UK National Newspapers
UK national newspapers are in poor shape. The inherent problem of the industry – too many papers chasing too few readers – has been exacerbated by a sharp decline in advertising revenue since September. As a result of these challenges coupled with the implications of forthcoming media legislation, we expect to see significant changes in newspaper ownership over the next two years.
The likely development of overall advertising in Europe in 2002 and 2003;
The development of overall online advertising in the same period; |
Media |
March 2002 Access this report
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Wanadoo
Wanadoo is a business combining extensive interests in European ISPs with a strongly cash-generative directory business. Wanadoo's position as the leading French ISP is secure. Its position as an ISP in other markets is much less happy; in particular, Freeserve in the UK is not performing well. In this report, we address the underlying reasons why the French ISP business is healthy while the low ARPUs and poor or negative access margins in other countries are draining the company's profitability. Section A of the report provides detailed projections of 2002 for Wanadoo ISP operations. |
Media |
April 2002 Access this report
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