European Mobile Operators - Mobile Valuation
In this report, we look at the components of a theoretical DCF valuation of European mobile operators, focusing on Vodafone as the most salient example, and compare our views with those of the ‘analyst consensus’. Perhaps unsurprisingly, we are more conservative on revenue and margin forecasts than most forecasters, but an area in which we are uncharacteristically optimistic is cost of capital; the one benefit of the mobile industry’s transformation to low but stable growth is that WACCs should fall through both reduced betas and the ability to take on more debt. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
September 2002 Access this report
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European Mobile Operators - Mobile Data
The mobile operators in the UK and elsewhere probably make a higher margin on SMS than on any other product. We think that about 30% of a UK operator's gross margin in derived from SMS and the percentage is rising. This report asks the question 'why should mobile operators launch any other mobile data products aimed at consumers?'. SMS now generates about £800 per megabyte of traffic. GPRS prices fall to about £1 per megabyte to heavy users. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2002 Access this report
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European Mobile Operators - Capital Expenditure Trends
Analysts are predicting substantial declines in mobile industry capital expenditure when expressed as a percentage of turnover. These improvements are supposed to be driven by (a) declining growth in call minutes; (b) decreasing prices of capital equipment; and (c) better 'capital efficiency' in the 3G era. |
Mobile, Telecoms |
July 2002 Access this report
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European mobile market consolidation
The planned merger of Vodafone and H3G in Australia has raised the question of what consolidation could occur in Europe, although a direct analogy is not appropriate because Vodafone is much weaker in Australia (#3 operator) than it is in the larger European countries, and so would face much more regulatory scrutiny in Europe |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
February 2009 Access this report
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European mobile market analysis to March 2010
Overall reported revenue growth in the top 5 European markets increased by 1.6ppts, to growth of -1.7%. With little change in regulation during the quarter, underlying growth also saw a sharp uplift, rising 1.7ppts and building on the 0.4ppts increase seen in the last quarter. The European mobile market is now firmly in recovery following a very difficult 2009 |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
June 2010 Access this report
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European internet advertising: display on top
Internet advertising grew 15% YoY to €17.7 billion across Western and Central & Eastern Europe in 2010, according to provisional figures from IAB Europe
As in the US, growth in display, increasingly powered by social media, outpaced that of search, with display accounting for 33% of spend (up 3 ppts YoY)
We have updated our forecasts for 5 key markets – UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain – and now project aggregated growth of 10% in 2011 and 13% in 2012 |
Media, Internet |
June 2011 Access this report
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European internet advertising trends
Broadband penetration and Internet usage in continental European countries are catching up with the US and UK, but consumer e-commerce and internet advertising spend still massively lag behind. Online advertising is growing more rapidly in Germany and France than in the UK, driven by rapid take-up of paid search by advertisers
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Media, Internet, Non-UK Media |
June 2007 Access this report
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European DTV Trends 2003-2005
European digital TV take-up enjoyed a mild recovery in 2003, adding about 4 million households to reach 30 million households at the end of the year. We expect the momentum to build in 2004 and 2005. This is the main conclusion of our assessment of European trends in 2003 of take-up of digital satellite TV (DST), digital terrestrial TV (DTT) and digital cable TV (DCT). |
Media |
January 2004 Access this report
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European digital television platforms update
The switchover to digital television is well advanced in Europe – it is already completed in The Netherlands, Sweden and Germany (but not on cable) and will be over in all other large markets by 2012
This report presents a cross-country comparative assessment of TV platforms switching over and the emergence and adoption of new digital platforms, such as DTT, IPTV and free digital satellite |
Media, TV, Non-UK Media |
February 2010 Access this report
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European B2C E-Commerce Update
This report updates our July 2000 report on European B2C e-commerce, with a special focus on the UK market.
We estimate that global net adds were 48m in Q2, down from 58m in Q1 2001. The total net adds so far this year of 106m is 53% of our full year forecast of 201m for these territories, which supports our forecast of 375 million units shipped given that net adds will likely continue to decline in Q3 followed by the seasonally strong Q4. |
Media |
April 2001 Access this report
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ESPN and Sky - The new complementary premium sports duo
According to recent speculation, Sky stands to benefit materially in the short-term from the replacement of Setanta by ESPN, but could suffer from rights inflation and worse in the longer term should ESPN become really successful
ESPN’s commitment to a pure wholesale channel distribution model across all platforms and lower outlay on rights gives a real chance of building a viable business where Setanta failed |
Media, TV |
August 2009 Access this report
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Enders Analysis' Annual Conference
Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 19 January 2012. The event featured talks by 13 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. An edited transcript of notes taken during the speaker presentations follows. |
Media, Technology, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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EMI: underperforming in difficult times
Steep drops in US and UK recorded music sales dragged EMI’s group revenue 15.8% lower for FY 2006/07. EMI’s underperformance of the sagging recorded music industry highlights the scale of the challenge facing any prospective new owner |
Media, Music and Radio |
May 2007 Access this report
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EMI: the game of musical chairs continues
Citigroup has agreed to dispose of EMI’s recorded music division to Universal Music Group, and a Sony-led consortium is buying EMI’s music publishing division
UMG’s merger with EMI may raise competition concerns in the US and EU on the already concentrated recorded music market. Citigroup bears no risk
Depending on the nature of the strategic alliance between Sony/ATV Music Publishing and EMI Music Publishing, the EU may raise competition concerns on digital licensing |
Media, Music and Radio |
December 2011 Access this report
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EMI-WMG Merger Prospects
Talk of a merger between the recorded music divisions of EMI and Warner Music Group to create the third largest recorded music group has been simmering for at least six months. After two failed attempts in the past six years, the logic of a merger continues to be strong and scale is an even more compelling objective given the continued difficult conditions in the recorded music market, despite rising digital sales in line with our forecasts. |
Media |
March 2006 Access this report
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EMI Music Group
A few weeks ago, it looked as though EMI would follow Safeway into a frenzied auction in which trade buyers competed with canny buy-out funds. The rumoured interest was sparked by the steady fall in EMI's share price over the course of 2002, which had reduced the value of the entire company to close to the perceived worth of the Music Publishing division. |
Media |
January 2003 Access this report
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EMI and WMG: into the end game
Citigroup acquired Terra Firma’s EMI Group on 1 February and may look for buyers in the near future. Although Terra Firma paid far too much for EMI Group in 2007, it significantly improved the operating metrics
Warner Music Group has entered the fray as a buyer or a seller of music assets. We think WMG’s management will keep the recorded music division and sell Warner/Chappell |
Media, Music and Radio, Non-UK Media |
February 2011 Access this report
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Emap – can't get used to losing you
Emap’s sale last week of its consumer magazine and radio divisions to H. Bauer, the German privately-held publisher, for £1.14 billion is nothing short of miraculous given declining consumption and advertising trends in those business sectors currently, and for 2008 |
Media, Press, Music and Radio |
December 2007 Access this report
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Emap Sale and Consumer Magazine Trends
Emap’s decision in July 2007 to sell off the entire group – consumer magazines, radio and business-to-business (B2B) – as a whole or in parts, provides the context for our examination of the state of the consumer magazine sector. The recently released ABC circulation figures highlight the plight of this sector as a whole and, within it, the precarious state of certain genres, especially lad's magazines. This report presents our analysis of the ABC circulation figures and provides our forecasts for the sector to 2012 |
Media, Press |
September 2007 Access this report
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Emap - pick up the pieces
Emap, the consumer and business-to-business (B2B) publisher, appears ripe for a break-up. This report examines the health of the group's principal consumer magazine and radio assets, as well as its B2B assets. The latter, in our view, could prove particularly attractive to media-hungry private equity, based on recent valuations of business media assets. The consumer magazines segment is under pressure from circulation declines, and Emap’s digital strategy for its titles has yet to bear fruit. Meanwhile, Emap’s radio division has not been spared the market's overall decline |
Media, Press |
June 2007 Access this report
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