Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media. We cover all sides of the market, from consumers and leading companies (e.g. Vodafone, Iliad, ITV, BT, BSkyB, Virgin Media and others), to regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

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Publications

Format: 2013-06
Format: 2013-06
Sector(s) Datesort icon

NTL - A False Dawn?

We look at the recent improvements in NTL performance but suggest that continued progress towards cash generation in unlikely. In our view, NTL will miss its guidance for cash flow in 2002 and 2003 by substantial amounts, making its financial position increasingly unstable. Our view is that NTL will use up its existing cash resources long before it turns cash positive. The problems are exacerbated by the large amounts of NTL's debt that need to refinanced in 2004 and 2005.

 Telecoms July 2001 Access this report

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Mobile Handset Market Global Trends and Forecast

This report provides our model for global handset sales in 2001 to 2005. We continue to forecast 375 million units shipped in 2001. The forecast for 2002 is 470 million units. Key constraints on the level of shipments in Europe:

 Mobile, Telecoms August 2001 Access this report

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UK Mobile Operators - 'Active' Customers

The UK mobile operators have made much of their honesty in ceasing to record subscribers that have not made calls within six months. This will help analysts make a clearer judgment of how many people actually use mobiles, and what the correct figure is for ARPU. But pleasure at the apparent increase in openness should be tempered somewhat. Operators are starting to make active efforts to stop subscribers becoming 'inactive'. In the last few weeks all the UK operators appear to have adopted similar policies.

 Mobile, Telecoms August 2001 Access this report

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BT - The Pressure Will Continue

As the various separations in the BT family draw closer, we use this report to assess the likely prospects of the core UK fixed line division, Wholesale and Retail.

The key points are:

 Telecoms August 2001 Access this report

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BT and Earthlease

We note with interest the reported bids by various consortia for part or all of BT's fixed-line network.  According to press reports, the Earthlease consortium has offered £8bn for BT's local loop (i.e. the copper wire connecting individual telephones to the local exchange), while a WestLB led consortium is reported to be ready to offer £18bn for the entire network.  Note that each of these bids will be structured as asset purchases financed largely by debt. The plans are to provide wholesale access to the network to BT Retail and other telcos.

 Telecoms August 2001 Access this report

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UK Regional Newspapers

In this report we look at one of the subsectors of UK media - regional newspapers - to see whether these companies would be relatively resilient in a downturn - this is the product of our review. The main points are as follows:

Our rationale is simple. This year has been profoundly affected by the impact of high levels of inventory in the early months of the year. This stock has now been disposed of, and handset shipments from manufacturers will revert to a level more aligned with retail demand. This will push up shipments next year from this year's artificially depressed level.

 Media September 2001 Access this report

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3G Infrastructure

Europolitan, Vodafone's Swedish affiliate, has just announced that its expected costs to build a 3G network will be 10bn Swedish Kroner, or about 1bn Euros.

 Mobile, Telecoms September 2001 Access this report

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Vodafone - The Transition to Being a 'Value" Stock

This report looks at the prospects for mobile operators. It focuses on the UK, and Vodafone in particular, because of the high quality of data available to analysts. We think the main conclusions apply widely across European operators.

It is well placed to weather any downturn, though its dependence on recruitment advertising continues to concern outside observers.

 Telecoms September 2001 Access this report

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European Online Advertising

This report provides our forecasts for online advertising revenues in 2001 and 2002 in the UK, Germany and France. Our central forecasts are for a decline of 3% in online advertising in 2001 over 2000 (€610 million versus €615 million), and for a maximum increase of 8% in calendar year 2002 (€660 million). For Europe as a whole, online advertising will be flat: increases in Italy and Spain are offset by decline in more mature markets.

 Media October 2001 Access this report

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Global Handset Shipments

Nokia's quarterly results statement included an estimate for worldwide global handset shipments of about 390 million. Global shipments so far this year have been:

 

 

 

 Mobile, Telecoms October 2001 Access this report

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Signs of Price Inflation in Mobile Call Charges

Since the research for our report on Vodafone was carried out, the UK mobile operators have made a number of changes in tariffs. We think the net impact of these changes has been to increase average call charges. This may be the first time that the UK has seen any upward trend in prices. If these price changes stick, the impact on voice ARPU is clearly positive.

 Mobile, Telecoms October 2001 Access this report

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Time and Money

This report looks at how consumers in the UK spend their money on TMT goods and services. It tracks changes in the portion of household expenditure going to TMT. It shows that expenditure patterns are very different in the lowest 40% of all households, with very little expenditure going on newer technologies. The greatest increase in TMT expenditures has been concentrated in the upper middle of the income range. The richest consumers have actually decreased the portion of their expenditure devoted to TMT in the last five years.

 Media, Telecoms October 2001 Access this report

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European Telecoms Incumbents

In our recent report on the prospects for BT, we looked at the pressures on the company resulting from declining prices, static call volumes and increased competition from mobile.

 Telecoms October 2001 Access this report

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UK Internet Trends

This note provides an update on UK Internet trends covering the post-Christmas period. It covers usage, shopping and other online activities of the 17.7 million connected adults. The note highlights the feminisation of the UK online population and its impact on shopping behaviour.

Broadband cable suffers from several technical performance problems, including installation, actual performance and the costs of providing content, in particular to gamers.

 Media October 2001 Access this report

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Consumer Payment Companies

In this short note Chris Goodall looks at consumer payment technologies. He says that the banks and credit card companies are under no immediate threat from new technologies. Do not be confused by the wizard new technologies coming out of Nokia; technical advances are not going to change payment systems much in the next five years. Rather, he suggests, observers should focus on three interesting companies which use low technology solutions to solve particular payments problems. These companies support, rather than undermine, existing players in the consumer payments industry.

 Media, Telecoms October 2001 Access this report

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ITV Digital - The Shareholders' Logic

The issues surrounding ITV Digital are complex and unclear. This report tries to unpick the tangled threads. It looks at the main financial issues and the manoeuvres with the BBC, the Office of Fair Trading and the set-top box manufacturers.

 Media November 2001 Access this report

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NTL Liquidity Position

Yesterday's third quarter results were broadly in line with market expectations. Analysts have noted that subscriber numbers are stagnant and that ARPU for domestic subscribers was essentially flat, quarter-on-quarter. The growth in broadband subscribers has been a real achievement - but the revenue benefit of adding even 35,000 new subscribers is less than £10m a year. This does not go very far in paying back debts over a thousand times as large.

 Media November 2001 Access this report

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Pay-TV Penetration

The most recent quarterly operating statistics for the UK pay-TV providers point to the continued rapid slow-down in consumer subscriptions. This short note analyses the figures and offers a forecast for subscriber numbers over the next decade.

 Media November 2001 Access this report

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UK Digital TV Trends

This report provides an update on the major trends in the UK digital TV market. We use a variety of consumer market research data, which all offer a consistent picture of trends in the business.

Sky is doing well. But the evidence of the last quarter’s results suggests that it is not out of the wood yet.

 Media November 2001 Access this report

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Mobile Handset Market

Mobile operators’ marketing strategies are the primary determinant of the size of the market for handsets. The level of handset subsidy dramatically affects retailer sales. In this brief note, we look at the changes in retail subsidies in the UK during the past 6 months. We show how the emphasis on the acquisition of contract customers has meant higher levels of subsidy for the phones taken by these customers. By contrast, pre-pay subsidies have fallen.

 

 

 

 Mobile, Telecoms November 2001 Access this report

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