Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media. We cover all sides of the market, from consumers and leading companies (e.g. Vodafone, Iliad, ITV, BT, BSkyB, Virgin Media and others), to regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

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Publications

Format: 2013-06
Format: 2013-06
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Spotify's freemium model gains traction

Spotify has just passed the 2 million subscriber mark in Europe and the US, and could reach 2.5 million by the end of 2011

Smartphone adoption and partnerships with MNOs and ISPs have proven a key driver of subscription in Europe for Spotify, which lacks a telecoms partner in the US. We think subscription is profitable

Spotify’s lower usage caps on the freemium tier will help compress total losses in 2011 in relation to the £25 million reported in 2010, despite the US launch

Media, Internet, Music and Radio November 2011 Access this report

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Spotify’s expensive free music

Spotify’s operating losses doubled to €46.8 million in 2011 on expansion to the US. Still, with cash consumption half of operating losses, Spotify will be around for many years

Spotify has a profitable subscription business, while the losses of the advertising-supported tier could be trimmed to produce breakeven by a more stringent policy on usage

However, with usage uncapped in the US until July 2013 and the launch in Germany in 2012, Spotify’s losses on the freemium tier could well continue to swamp the profits of the subscription side for the near term

Media, Music and Radio September 2012 Access this report

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Sprint and the mobile WiMAX bubble

Mobile WiMAX is still being heavily hyped as the future of mobile broadband, with Sprint in the US, with its $3 billion network rollout, being lauded as the pioneer

Mobile, Telecoms March 2007 Access this report

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Starting the transformation: ITV interim 2011 results

ITV reported strong year-on-year growth in profits in H1 2011, enabling a substantial reduction of net debt and putting the company in a stronger position to invest in growth as it pursues its five year transformation plan

Important to longer term success, ITV Family share of viewing has held up, and ITV looks well placed to expand its market share of TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) over the next two years, albeit in an uncertain and challenging economic environment

Media, TV August 2011 Access this report

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Still headroom for growth - Sky Q3 2012 results

The weak spot of 15,000 net TV additions in a positive quarter for operating profit growth reflects the continuing downward pressures of a struggling economy, with little indication of headwinds to do with connected TV Very strong growth in home communications in a weak quarter for TV net additions underline Sky’s competitive strengths in a market now close to maturity, as well as bringing revenue growth and churn reduction benefits Overshadowing Sky’s Q3 results, Ofcom’s investigation into the “fit and proper” status of News Corp’s shareholding in BSkyB is unlikely to affect the company

Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms May 2012 Access this report

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Strong underlying growth trajectory: Sky fiscal Q3 2011 results

Sky is managing to sustain strong underlying growth in the face of a challenging retail environment, in which it has maintained strong growth rates in quarterly gross TV additions and home communications products

Revenues were slightly down on the previous quarter, but this was mainly due to the January increase in VAT and seasonal variations in advertising spend, while the results confirmed the company’s strong discretionary control over costs

Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms April 2011 Access this report

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Sunshine to showers: TV 2011 advertising update

We have revised our central case forecasts of total year-on-year NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) growth in 2011 from 5% to 1%, as the advertising outlook has progressively worsened since mid April

2011 is marked by a further round of consolidation in airtime sales and a number of noteworthy channel and programming changes

Channel 4 Sales, and above all its flagship Channel 4, appears the most challenged of the leading market players, while we expect the ITV group to continue to outperform the NAR market in the rest of 2011 and 2012

Media, TV June 2011 Access this report

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Survival signs from the New York Times

The New York Times has generated $243 million from its digital services in the four quarters since the launch of its new subscription strategy, representing about 15% of New York Times Media Group revenues, according to our estimates.

This scale is the clearest signal yet that digital-only newsrooms could be able to generate enough revenue to fund expensive breadth and depth in journalism – though there will be many fewer profitable scale players than in the print news era.

Media, Press June 2012 Access this report

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T-Mobile and Orange in the UK: creating a synergy champion

T-Mobile and Orange’s plan to merge their UK businesses into a JV would create the UK’s largest mobile operator by some margin, and the enormous planned synergies of £545m per annum are actually quite unaggressive given the cost overlap

This achievement would be moderated by ‘integration leakage’, i.e. increased churn caused by customers leaving who were initially attracted by an aspect of one of the operators that disappears after integration, but the net result should still be positive for the JV

Mobile, Telecoms September 2009 Access this report

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Tablets: Google and Microsoft try for second place [2012-068]

Apple sold 67m iPads through March 2012, and retains over 70% market share for premium tablets. Apple is aiming for the same long term dominance it enjoyed with the iPod, which maintained similar market share for a decade Microsoft and Google are taking radical steps to try to change this. Both are now making and selling their own hardware, while Google will sell a tablet at cost Microsoft and Google now have coherent tablet propositions, but they remain far behind on broader app ecosystems. Like Nokia, they are now back in the game, but they still have to play

Media, Technology July 2012 Access this report

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TalkTalk FY 2011/12 results: walking the talk

Strong cost reduction and mix effects enabled TalkTalk to report a third successive year of high cash flow growth, in spite of declining revenue due to high churn The company appears to have retained its strong position at the value end of the market, and this should result in continuing sales combining with falling churn to generate positive revenue growth Although high speed broadband and a YouView-based TV offer will dilute profitability to an extent, this should be outweighed by other factors, generating further significant cash flow growth

Fixed line, Telecoms May 2012 Access this report

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TalkTalk Group 2011/12 H1 results: continuing strong financial performance, cloudier longer term outlook

TalkTalk Group’s H1 results saw a disappointing increase in subscriber churn, causing a minor downward revision to revenue and volume guidance for the current financial year

Management is making good progress in reducing costs and the company remains on track to meet its financial guidance for the full year

Customer satisfaction is improving and subscriber volume is expected to stabilise by June 2012. But the strength of competition from BT Retail raises questions about the potential for future growth in revenue and hence cash flow

Fixed line, Telecoms November 2011 Access this report

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TalkTalk Group FY 2010/11 results: solid financial performance despite high churn

TTG’s full year results were, in the most important respects, solid, despite customer service issues and high churn caused by the migration of former Tiscali customers onto a single set of platforms

We remain cautious about the speed with which churn can be reduced, but there is little sign of the problem spreading beyond the former Tiscali base

Operating leverage and cost reduction have been impressive and give us confidence that new financial guidance will be met, although other sources of growth remain elusive

Media, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms May 2011 Access this report

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TalkTalk Group Q3 2012/13 results: Return to growth

TalkTalk’s broadband base returned to growth in the December quarter after years of decline, helped by further churn improvements

The company gained a respectable 80k new pay TV subscribers after its Plus TV launch, and the overall Plus/Plus TV base continued to grow

Revenue growth was unchanged at -1.7% in the quarter, but given the timings of price changes we still expect a return to broadly flat or growing revenue next quarter

Fixed line, Telecoms February 2013 Access this report

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TalkTalk Group Q4 2012/13 results: Return to revenue growth

Following a return to broadband subscriber growth last quarter, TalkTalk has now returned to overall revenue growth for the first time since acquiring Tiscali in 2009

Pay TV net adds nearly doubled to 150k; the associated SACs weighed on EBITDA, but TV did support the upper tier ‘Plus’ base returning to solid growth

TTG’s outlook is positive, save for uncertainties over regulation, and the unpredictable impact of BT Sport on broadband market shares

Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms May 2013 Access this report

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Telecoms Strategic Review

Ofcom, BT and the industry are getting closer to completing the Telecoms Strategic Review (TSR), currently in its Phase 3, and scheduled to complete in the Autumn. Ofcom's proposals and the supportive measures announced by BT offer some good news for virtually all players in the UK market, although clearly such judgements depend on what was expected prior to these announcements. We have always considered it unlikely that Ofcom would choose the option of investigating BT and possibly making a referral to the Competition Commission, which could have led to the break-up of BT.

Telecoms July 2005 Access this report

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Telewest

Telewest has drawn away from its key competitor in terms of UK performance. However, we still believe Telewest's bonds are worth less than 50% of their face value. This note explains why.

Media, Telecoms March 2002 Access this report

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TF1 - Digital Challenge

Television's old world of analogue scarcity produced a clutch of big names in free-to-air (FTA) commercial broadcasting: ITV1, TF1, Mediaset, RTL and Sat.1/Pro7 being among the most prominent in Europe - companies grown rich and powerful through advertising demand and lack of competition. Today, they face the common challenge of making a successful transition into the new world of digital plenty. Can they prosper?

Media August 2005 Access this report

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TF1 - new digital TV offensive

TF1, France’s leading free-to-air (FTA) terrestrial broadcaster, has repositioned its channel assets in order to better exploit rapid growth of digital TV, now taken by 44% of households

Media, TV, Non-UK Media December 2006 Access this report

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TF1 - The Future of TPS

This note looks at the position of TPS, the satellite pay-TV venture largely owned by TF1 in France. We particularly focus on the issue of payments for football rights because sports rights have become the crucial ingredient in pay-TV success, in France and elsewhere.

Media December 2002 Access this report

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