Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media. We cover all sides of the market, from consumers and leading companies (e.g. Vodafone, Iliad, ITV, BT, BSkyB, Virgin Media and others), to regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

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Publications

Format: 2013-06
Format: 2013-06
Sector(s) Datesort icon

UK Broadband

The BT self-install broadband product appears to be working well. Our own trial showed it was easy to install and functioned perfectly.

Despite the cut of approximately 25% in retail pricing of broadband and BT’s major advertising campaign, intentions to adopt broadband have only increased modestly – from 24% to 28% of Internet users in the three-month period to May 2002.

We identify one problem as the absence of concerted industry efforts to shift uneconomic heavy users to broadband by limiting consumption on unmetered products.

 Telecoms April 2002 Access this report

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Digital Terrestrial Television

We think that ITV Digital will eventually be forced to close. What will replace the service on the digital terrestrial spectrum? This note looks at the possible outcomes once the commercial television regulator decides to re-licence the spectrum.

 Media April 2002 Access this report

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BT Broadband

BT's direct access broadband product attracted a lot of attention last week. This note examines the likely scale of demand for the product over the next four years. We conclude that although the product does have a niche among sophisticated users, the number of prospective customers is very unlikely to exceed 1 million. BT forecasts several times this number.

 Telecoms April 2002 Access this report

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Hutchison 3G - The Last of the White Elephants?

This note discusses the likely obstacles to a successful launch of H3G UK, the most aggressive 3G new entrant in Europe. Our main points:

 Telecoms May 2002 Access this report

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The Digital Bomb II - The Digital TV World Market

This report explains why we are pessimistic about the short and medium term prospects of the global digital TV supply chain. While some recently published forecasts of digital TV penetration remain unremittingly optimistic, our own estimates suggest the number of digital homes may reach only 160 million by 2005. Not only are we bearish on demand but we find an industry that is concentrating on consolidation rather than unsustainable subscriber growth.

 Media May 2002 Access this report

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UK Regional Newspapers

This is the third in our series of notes on UK newspapers and concerns regional newspapers. Unlike other media sectors, 2002 has got off to a positive start (as we predicted) due to resilience in newspaper advertising, particularly recruitment. This can deliver 25% plus of revenues. We expect recruitment to remain resilient, primarily due to continued government recruitment. As a result, we forecast 2-3% growth in advertising to this media sector in 2002.

 Media May 2002 Access this report

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European Mobile Operators - Revenue Growth

In this note we look at the recent revenue growth performance of European mobile operators. We show that the current pessimism about future performance looks broadly justified. We comment on the increasing evidence, at least in the UK, that mobile penetration has stalled and that minutes of use are growing only slowly. We admit that our previous view that mobile usage would drift upwards even with stable call charges looks difficult to justify at the moment.

 Mobile, Telecoms May 2002 Access this report

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Wanadoo Q1 2002 Results

This note contains our latest update on Wanadoo, France's leading ISP and broadband service provider, following on from the report we issued in April. Wanadoo's Q1 2002 results are on target with the company's objectives for the year, despite sharp declines in portal and e-commerce revenues. The reason is Freeserve: a better deal from its network provider has raised ARPU to €5.7/month from €3.7/month in Q4 2001, and its PAYG customer base has expanded under continued marketing efforts.

 Media May 2002 Access this report

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UK TV Viewing Trends - Issue 2

Despite the bad press it is receiving, the BARB TV viewing panel appears to us to be settling down and providing robust results. In this note, Toby Syfret shows that UK viewing trends now appear to be clear-cut and not artefacts of BARB panel design.

 Media June 2002 Access this report

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Handset Sales and the Replacement Cycle

In developed markets, the crucial determinant of the level of mobile handset sales is the speed of replacement, not the volume of new subscribers. But data on when customers expect to replace their existing phone, and what will prompt them to make the change, is extremely hard to find. In order to rectify this deficiency, we commissioned a telephone survey of customers in the UK.

 Mobile, Telecoms June 2002 Access this report

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Mobile Termination Charges

This note looks at the likely extent of regulatory pressures on reducing termination charges for off-net calls to the 2G networks of mobile network operators (MNOs) in the UK, Italy and Germany. These charges are well above cost – mainly because each MNO acts as a monopolist for termination of calls on its network - and are therefore important contributors to revenues as well as profits of MNOs. In the UK, off-net interconnection charges contribute one-quarter of revenues of the four MNOs.

 

 

 

 Mobile, Telecoms June 2002 Access this report

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The Digital Terrestrial Licence Applications

Digital terrestrial television in the UK and elsewhere faces three enormous problems: (1) the paucity of attractive programming available for free distribution; (2) the uncertainty of the coverage and picture quality; and (3) the low channel capacity compared to satellite and cable. The four bids for the UK DTT licences try to address these problems, but with limited success. In the next two weeks the Independent Television Commission will try to choose the least worst proposal.

 Media June 2002 Access this report

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Resellers of Calls

Are resellers with ‘stretchy brands’ going to succeed where others have failed in dislodging BT from a dominant position in the fixed residential market for calls? Stretchy brands are widely touted as the next challengers because they have large and easily marketed customer bases, and their brand can be used to wean the fearful telecoms customer from BT.

 Telecoms June 2002 Access this report

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The High Cost of Going Digital - The experience of BSkyB

In The Digital Bomb II (2002-21), we asserted that the worldwide switch to digital TV would take place more slowly than most commentators expect. We base this view on our assessment that there is no financial incentive for the operator to make the switch from analogue to digital TV.

1. The evidence of a rapid slowing of the growth in multichannel homes is increasingly clear. We predict that Sky will miss its target of 7 million subscribers by the end of 2003 by 300,000 homes, if current trends continue.

 Media, Telecoms June 2002 Access this report

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European Online Advertising

This report addresses four principal questions:

 Media July 2002 Access this report

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European Mobile Operators - Capital Expenditure Trends

Analysts are predicting substantial declines in mobile industry capital expenditure when expressed as a percentage of turnover. These improvements are supposed to be driven by (a) declining growth in call minutes; (b) decreasing prices of capital equipment; and (c) better 'capital efficiency' in the 3G era.

 Mobile, Telecoms July 2002 Access this report

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UK Broadband/Internet Trends H1 2002

This report provides an insight into the effect on consumers of the significant changes in retail pricing and promotion of broadband, as well as an update on the size and dynamics of the UK Internet population. The main points:

 Media, Telecoms July 2002 Access this report

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Where Did the Music Go?

This report provides our analysis of the main factors in the evolution of the global music market in the period 2002-2006.

 Media August 2002 Access this report

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Camera Phones

Camera phones represent the best hope of the mobile operators. Proven demand in Japan gives European operators reason for optimism that cameras will increase ARPU. Handset manufacturers believe it will ignite replacement demand.

 

 

 

 Mobile, Telecoms August 2002 Access this report

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Wi-Fi: Wireless Data in Public 'Hotspots'

The last few weeks have seen several enthusiastic announcements from telecom operators eager to start public Wi-Fi services. In this note we look at the prospects for public Wi-Fi. Our analysis suggests that Wi-Fi is likely to suffer from three major problems

 Telecoms August 2002 Access this report

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