HD platform differentiation
A large gap has opened up between the different platforms in the five years since HD launched in the UK, with the pay-TV platforms – above all Sky – gaining a large lead over the free-to-air satellite and terrestrial platforms
With HD Ready TV sets now counting for almost half the total population of TV sets in the UK, the big issue facing the free-to-air platforms is the number of channels, where Sky (now 52 HD channels) and Virgin Media (now 28 HD channels) are expanding their lead over the free-to-air platforms Freeview (now 4 channels) and Freesat (now 3 channels) |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Technology, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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Cable & Wireless Worldwide interim results 2010/11: not much excitement
C&W Worldwide’s performance over the six months to September was strong in terms of cash flow growth, although this was partly due to lower bad debt cost
Revenue decline is easing, but weakness in the mid-market business and reduced public sector spending are weighing on EBITDA
Looking ahead, this should improve somewhat, as the retail mid-market business recovers, but we expect growth in the core business to remain unexciting |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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Mobile revenue growth and outlook Q3 2010: smartphones surge, revenue doesn't
European mobile revenue growth improved by 0.8ppts in Q3 to reach -0.3%, but all of this improvement and more was due to easing regulatory pressures, with underlying growth actually declining marginally
GDP growth continues to improve year-on-year, but in the current low confidence environment underlying mobile revenue growth is not (yet) responding. Smartphone sales are surging, but their net impact on revenue is hard to discern |
Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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Germany: Update on pay and free-to-air TV
Unlike other European TV markets, the digital transition started in Germany 15 years ago and is having little impact on advertising or audience share trends of leading FTA broadcasters, RTL Group and ProSiebenSat.1
RTL Group and ProSiebenSat.1 each have both German and international FTA TV operations, but German FTA TV is more profitable. RTL and ProSieben operate a de facto duopoly in advertising, with broadly stable market shares |
Media, TV, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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Facebook: here, there and everywhere
Facebook Messaging adds email, IM and SMS to Facebook messages. Some portion of the social network’s 600+ million users will switch to Facebook for an all in one text-based communications service
Switchers to Facebook Messaging in the US will reduce the display ad revenues of traditional portals, like Yahoo! and Microsoft, which use such tools to drive traffic
Less affected is Google. Some Gmail users will switch, but Google’s core business model is selling search advertising, where it is not challenged by Facebook (yet) |
Media, Internet, Non-UK Media |
November 2010 Access this report
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France: Update on free-to-air and pay-TV
The digital transition is almost complete in France, five years after the launch of DTT. After undergoing an audience share decline, TF1's share is stabilising. In contrast, M6 improved its audience share during the transition. Both groups are likely to remain dominant in the FTA TV market, thanks to the partial withdrawal of public TV from advertising sales
The advertising recovery in 2010 was strong. Thanks to its diversification, M6 is less exposed to the cycle than TF1, which is rebounding more strongly. M6 is also structurally more profitable |
Media, TV, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
December 2010 Access this report
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UK broadband and telephony trends to September 2010
In this short presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to September 2010, based on the published results of the major service providers and Ofcom telephony data. We include our own estimates where reported data is incomplete. This quarter’s edition includes a revision to some historical trends resulting from our own interpretation of BT’s recent adjustment to the volume of unbundled lines. |
Media, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
December 2010 Access this report
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Newspapers: Good news, bad news
National newspaper advertising revenues should be up 6-8% year-on-year in 2010, with ‘popular’ titles in particular attracting display ads from national retailer brands
Local and regional press advertising revenues will fall by about 6% year-on-year, mainly on the continued decline of recruitment classifieds
Publishers are exploring more efficient printing, new digital models, and staking a claim on e-commerce |
Media, Press, Internet |
December 2010 Access this report
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Google eBooks: Good news for publishers
Google has launched a dedicated ebooks store in the US, with support from 4,000 publishers, providing an ecommerce platform for independent book retailers
Google’s aim is not revenue from ebooks, though the market is attractive: we estimate ebooks will be 5% of the US books market in 2010 ($1bn) and could grow to perhaps half of all book sales within the next five years
Like Amazon and Apple, Google is using ebooks to support its broader strategy, driving search traffic and building an ecommerce platform. Revenue from ebooks is less important than supporting these objectives |
Media, Internet, Technology |
December 2010 Access this report
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Virgin Media Investor Day 2010: pausing for breath
Virgin Media’s recent investor day served to emphasise the potential for further growth in cash flow, with Virgin Mobile, next generation TV and Business taking more prominent roles
The new TiVo service, launched on 1 December, is impressive, but will not be available throughout the cable footprint until Q3 2011 and is more likely to help maintain the company’s differentiated position, keeping churn low and subscriber growth positive, than generate a sudden revenue boost |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Internet, Telecoms |
December 2010 Access this report
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Italy: Update on free-to-air and pay-TV
In this presentation we highlight Mediaset's star position among European FTA broadcasters, enjoying the highest share of its national advertising market (and profit margin), stable throughout digitalisation and secure for the future |
Media, TV, Non-UK Media |
December 2010 Access this report
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Sky Songs silenced, Spotify sings
Sky Songs will shutter on 7 February 2011, ending a brand extension experiment that probably cost parent BSkyB some £5 million end-to-end
A PC-based ad-free subscription service, Sky Songs failed to offer the mobility and exclusive content that music fans are most willing to pay for
Spotify’s reported 750,000 European customers as of November 2010 have moved the subscription side closer to breakeven, while the ad-supported side bleeds on |
Media, Internet, Music and Radio, Non-UK Media |
December 2010 Access this report
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BBC Worldwide magazine portfolio
BBCW is selling its portfolio of magazines. This is the first major disposal of the UK magazine marketplace since Emap sold its consumer magazines division to Bauer in December 2007, valuing the portfolio at 1.8x pro forma revenue, but we expect a lower valuation given the downgrading of the magazine marketplace |
Media, Press |
December 2010 Access this report
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Spain: Update on free-to-air and pay-TV
Since free DTT launched in 2005, Spain’s free-to-air broadcasters Telecinco and Antena3 have broadly managed to preserve audiences at group level. In 2010, they benefited from the rebound in advertising and from the withdrawal of public TV from airtime sales
By the end of 2010, Telecinco will close its acquisition of loss making competitor Cuatro. Telecinco will be able to realise some synergies, but we expect Cuatro's business model may require change to break even |
Media, TV, Non-UK Media |
December 2010 Access this report
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UK DTV platform growth: 2005-20150
With the completion of digital switchover still on track for mid 2012, stabilisation of the main digital broadcast platforms is expected, with roughly equal numbers of subscription pay-TV and free TV homes, though with marked differences between the platforms in terms of demographic composition and the proportion of pay-TV customers |
Media, TV, Internet, Technology |
December 2010 Access this report
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Iliad’s Freebox V6
France’s Iliad will rekindle broadband subscriber recruitment with its Freebox V6 (router and TV set-top box), and extension of the triple play to include unmetered fixed-to-mobile calls
Freebox V6 is positioned as an innovative premium quasi-PC device including a 250GB PVR, a Blu-ray player, a game console and a web browser, re-establishing Iliad’s technology leadership
Iliad expects that V6 subscribers will be less profitable in the short term than in the medium term, but cumulative free cash flow guidance for the ADSL business remains unchanged for 2010-12 |
Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Non-UK Media, Telecoms |
December 2010 Access this report
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Smartphones and mobile advertising
Smartphones are rapidly moving to become a majority of UK mobile handset sales, driving a surge in mobile internet use. Even if usage per user (currently growing) flattens out, we forecast mobile internet usage to grow from 1.8bn hours in 2010 to 7bn in 2015: 28% of total online time
This should drive the long promised growth in mobile advertising and we project UK spend, including search and display, will rise to £420 million by 2015, equivalent to 10% of PC internet search/display advertising |
Media, Mobile, Internet, Telecoms |
January 2011 Access this report
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The mobile internet, apps and the route to market
By 2015 we expect internet-centric smartphone penetration in the UK to reach 75% and mobile internet use to reach 28% of total time spent online. The dynamics and ecosystems of the mobile internet, and in particular the app model, will become a significant part of overall digital strategies
First seen as an interim reaction to slow networks and small screens, mobile apps have become a major new route to market for publishers and ecommerce providers, and are likely to spread to new areas |
Media, Mobile, Internet, Telecoms |
January 2011 Access this report
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HMV high street sales in decline
HMV’s poor trading update for the crucial Christmas period was due to the decline in demand for CDs, DVDs and games, and competition from supermarkets and e-tailers, compounded by bad weather
Waterstone’s outperformed HMV as the challenges of high street book retailing are not (yet) as acute as for CDs and DVDs – we consider it possible that HMV will divest the chain
HMV’s strategy for the store network is a key challenge for 2011 – in addition to planned store closures, further closures may be needed to maintain current profitability |
Media, TV, Music and Radio |
January 2011 Access this report
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Carphone Warehouse Q3 2010-11 results
CPW’s European volume and revenue growth dropped in the December quarter, but this was largely due to the higher mix of prepay in the Christmas period, with underlying trends (strong contract, weak prepay) unchanged
US volume growth surged to 34% as the company continued to roll out standalone stores in malls and shopping centres, and there appears to be plenty of growth to come |
Mobile, Technology, Telecoms |
January 2011 Access this report
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