Triple play in France
This presentation reports on the triple play of broadband, full telephony and DSL-delivered IPTV in France, the leading market in Europe for the triple play. Of France’s 16.2 million broadband subscribers, one third have migrated entirely to the VoIP services supplied by their broadband provider, dropping their line rental from France Télécom. We estimate that about 3.5 million households have activated the set-top box to receive DSL-delivered IPTV on their main set, also receiving digital terrestrial TV |
Fixed line, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms |
June 2008 Access this report
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TSR - Impact on Industry
This report examines the impact on alternative communications service providers - unbundlers, resellers, altnets and the cable companies - of BT's proposed settlement of the Telecoms Strategic Review (TSR) conducted by Ofcom, completing the coverage of our recently published Telecoms Strategic Review [2004-14]. |
Fixed line |
July 2005 Access this report
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TTG FY 2011-12 Q3 trading update
Volume growth remained negative, but manageable, and there appears to be little evidence that TalkTalk’s value proposition is losing its appeal
Strong operating leverage, cost reduction and the growing popularity of uncapped bundles has enabled a significant upward revision to EBITDA guidance. However, free cash flow guidance remains unchanged
Management’s confidence regarding churn and further efficiency gains strikes us as credible, but we remain cautious about the potential for strong cash flow growth beyond this financial year |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
February 2012 Access this report
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TTG H1 2010/11 interim results: the Dido effect
TalkTalk Group (TTG) revenue growth for the six months to September was flat on a like-for-like basis; broadband net additions were affected by heavy churn among former Tiscali customers as the migration process got under way
Guidance for broadband net adds to March has been reduced by two thirds, but the prospect of improved efficiency from migrations and strong ARPU growth has enabled financial guidance for the full year to be maintained |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
November 2010 Access this report
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TTG Q1 2010/11 trading update: holding firm
TalkTalk Group (TTG) reported revenue growth for the quarter to June was flattered by the Tiscali acquisition, but broadband net additions were reasonable given the protracted integration process and temporary absence from TV schedules of the X-Factor
An MVNO could prove challenging in terms of generating a significant direct impact on financial performance, but might help defend against other low price players, notably O2 and Tesco |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
August 2010 Access this report
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TTG Q3 2010/11 trading update: record churn
TalkTalk Group (TTG) lost broadband customers for the first time in its history in the quarter to December due to dissatisfaction among former Tiscali customers, and to a lesser extent, at AOL UK
But gross additions appeared to remain healthy and ARPU growth was strong, holding group revenue flat
The group remains on track to make guidance for the financial year to March. Beyond that, we remain optimistic about the prospects for further cost reduction, but reducing churn remains a daunting prospect |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
February 2011 Access this report
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TTG update and strategy day: changing the mix
TTG’s indicative full year financial results were solid, but were flattered by the acquisition of Tiscali UK in July 2009
Subscriber growth at TalkTalk is exceptionally strong thanks to effective marketing and a strong proposition, if somewhat at the expense of the acquired businesses |
Fixed line, Telecoms |
May 2010 Access this report
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TV advertising forecasts: 2012 - 2017
2012 has been a year of two halves, with TV NAR up by 2-3% in H1, plus the feel good factor of the Diamond Jubilee and London Olympics, but down by 1-1.5% across the full year as economic conditions have worsened in H2 2013 and 2014 promise to be especially taxing times with significant downside risks due to weakness in the economy, the squeeze on consumer disposable income and beginnings of real fiscal austerity On the upside, we expect negative structural pressures, caused by increases in CI delivery and online growth, to subside and conditions to improve from 2015 |
Media, TV |
November 2012 Access this report
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TV and ITV NAR to 2012
2005 was an all time high for total TV net advertising revenues (NAR), even if ITV1, the leading commercial channel, had peaked the year before. 2008 is now proving particularly nasty for everyone as budgets take a plunge in the second half of the year, while expectations are growing that things will only get worse in 2009. This presentation sets out our latest five-year forecasts of total TV and ITV plc NAR, taking into account latest market trading expectations for September and October 2008 and trends in the economy |
Media, TV |
August 2008 Access this report
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TV NAR forecasts: 2012-2016
With the economy drifting sideways, we have set our centre case forecasts at 0-1% average annual growth in TV NAR and assigned a low probability to a repeat of the hyper-cyclical downturn of 2008/9
Comparative international data show a pervasive long term weakness in display advertising trends across the developed world, while emerging markets in Asia, Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe take an increasing share of global budgets |
Media, TV |
January 2012 Access this report
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TV NAR gloom lifting a shade
Recent weeks have seen a marked improvement in the short-term outlook for TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenues), with total decline for 2009 reckoned to be in the order of -12.5% after a fourth quarter in which year-on-year decline is now expected to be in the order of -6%
The economic outlook for 2010 remains very uncertain due to the drastic cuts needed in the government’s spending to bring the deficit under control, which could lead to a double dip recession, and the persistence of downward pressures on airtime costs due to structural changes to the TV medium |
Media, TV |
October 2009 Access this report
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TV NAR in 2011 and medium term outlook
Q1 2011 TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) has delivered strong year-on-year growth of about 8%, yet the monthly variations are large, with a predictably sharp decrease in March based on past year comparatives countered by a large Christmas-style upswing in the Easter and Royal Wedding month of April
After several years of decoupling total display and TV advertising trends from those in the broader economy due to negative structural causes, the underlying positive correlations are expected to reappear as the structural factors subdue |
Media, TV |
March 2011 Access this report
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TV platform growth forecasts 2012-2020: the impact of digital convergence
In this first of two reports on TV platform growth, we consider the impact of digital convergence on the traditional broadcast channel distribution platforms. As the analogue era draws to a close, the new era of digital convergence across multiple screens and devices is gathering momentum. We assess the various forces of change, including superfast broadband rollout, the continuing growth of pay-TV adoption and the strategic resilience of Sky and Virgin Media. We provide our forecasts for TV platform penetration to 2020. |
Media, TV |
April 2012 Access this report
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TV platform growth forecasts 2013-2020
The completion of digital switchover has left an equilibrium between the digital satellite, cable and terrestrial platforms that is not expected to alter significantly by 2020
The main anticipated change over the forecast period is pay-TV subscription take-up where the 50/50 split between pay and free TV households is expected to rise steadily to 60/40, or even 67/33 if we include more individually-, as opposed to household-, based OTT online services such as Netflix, LoveFilm or Sky’s NOW TV |
Media, TV, Technology, Telecoms |
April 2013 Access this report
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TV, non-linear and disruption
The linear TV broadcast industry has kept its oligopolistic structure remarkably intact over the last 50 years against a background of much technological innovation and re-regulation, but now faces a new wave of innovation that promises growth of non-linear at the expense of linear True disruption can only occur by solving the device challenge of developing on a mass scale new, compelling and innovative ways to access content, but so far non-linear has achieved a very small share of total viewing while linear viewing levels are as high as ever Although non-linear viewing may become substa |
Media, TV, Internet, Technology |
October 2012 Access this report
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TV-over-DSL in the UK
TV-over-DSL has been pioneered in the UK by HomeChoice and Kingston Interactive Television (KIT), but their combined customer base is only about 15,000. ISPs and telcos are considering TV as a potential extra application for the local networks they intend to build in urban areas by unbundling local loops. We define TV-over-DSL as the multicast distribution of conventional free-to-air (FTA), subscription and PPV channels over the copper wire to the TV set. |
Media, Telecoms |
November 2004 Access this report
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Two News Corps for the price of one
News Corp will split publishing out of its business by creating a company to include newspapers in the US, UK and Australia as well as book publisher HarperCollins News Corp revenue growth has for some time been driven by explosive growth in cable network programming revenues, with slower revenue growth in film, TV, satellite TV and publishing The structural decline of print-based businesses is the main reason cited for the split. However, the Dow Jones and WSJ, both serving a B2B market, will be at the heart of the new publishing company’s value |
Media, TV, Press, Non-UK Media |
June 2012 Access this report
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Two UK consumer recessions for the price of one
UK households cut their real spending in 2011, and we expect their spending to, at best, flat-line in 2012 and 2013
From an economic perspective, flat real advertising growth is our central case for 2012 and into 2013 for the UK
Poor sales prospects and low profit margins on heavy price discounting will dissuade advertisers from higher spend until tangible evidence of a consumer recovery emerges. |
Media |
January 2012 Access this report
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UK 4G spectrum auction: Mostly rational
The UK 4G spectrum auction raised a total of £2.3bn, broadly in line with similar auctions, although the highest quality spectrum raised less and the lowest quality spectrum raised more than might have been expected
The main short term consequences are as was expected beforehand; Vodafone and O2 will launch 4G services around May/June 2013 and H3G will launch in October 2013
Longer term, O2 and H3G may suffer from their lack of 2.6GHz spectrum, although with other bands likely to come free within the next ten years this may not affect them |
Mobile, Telecoms |
February 2013 Access this report
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UK 4G spectrum consultation: preserving the big 4
Ofcom is proposing to design the 800MHz and 2.6GHz spectrum auctions to ensure that the UK mobile market remains at four players, through a complex set of rules largely designed to help H3G get the spectrum it needs to remain competitive
However, the sting in the tale is that Ofcom expects H3G to pay around £600m for this spectrum, which it may not want to do, and it is not clear what the backup plan would then be |
Mobile, Telecoms |
March 2011 Access this report
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