- The Commission proposes to require VOD services to implement a 20% share of EU works in catalogues, which Netflix already largely meets
- More impactful is the EU’s proposal for OTT SVOD services to provide access to the home service when subscribers travel in the EU, benefitting the UK’s 14 million subscribers
- TV broadcasters, which observe a 50% EU works threshold in their linear programming served on TV platforms and online players, will be able to opt-in to portability
Short form video is growing. It is easy to create, share and, with the rise of mobile technology, incorporate within communication
But despite the novel flexibility that mobile technology offers, the actual video most desired is surprisingly traditional
Buzzy, short form content fills gaps that have always existed; yet, despite the hype, it will remain supplementary to long-form programming
On TV, UK public service broadcasters (PSBs) have operated within a privileged ecosystem; a guaranteed electronic programme guide (EPG) prominence placing their channels at the forefront, helping sustain their market share and spawning digital families
But technological changes within the TV set are eroding this prominence, and on devices, such structural advantages are non-existent
To confront dramatically falling mobile engagement, despite consistently excellent content, the PSBs need to collaborate and replicate their privileged linear position or they will struggle against the major SVOD players
Netflix gained 1.8 million accounts in the course of 2015 (+37%) to 5.2 million, surpassing the 1.3 million VOD-enabled homes added by fixed line telcos Sky (including NowTV), Virgin Media, BT and TalkTalk. SVOD homes overlap with pay-TV accounts, and are topping up content for family members, not cord-cutting
Amazon Prime Instant Video, bundled into Prime, looks set to balloon from 1.6 million users in Q4 2015 on the back of the marketing of Jeremy Clarkson's motoring show, cementing its position in home entertainment by serving a family-friendly eco-system of devices and media, leveraging its mammoth 25% share of UK e-commerce
Free-to-the-user YouTube remains the heavyweight with 35 million monthly unique users in the UK, although skewing strongly to Millennials, while those 55+ will take longer to move beyond catch-up TV to embrace a wider range of VOD options
ITV has delivered double-digit growth in adjusted EBITA for the sixth year running, marked by big increases in both TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) and non-TV NAR revenues, which now make up nearly 50% of the total
The outlook for 2016 is promising. We expect continuing real growth in ITV family NAR in line with the market average, and further substantial increases in both Online, Pay & Interactive and ITV Studios
The big question is how ITV can sustain all it has achieved with the international expansion of ITV Studios and use its growing scale to support growth in its Online, Pay & Interactive revenues abroad as well as in the UK
Nearly a year after rolling out Google TV in the US, Google has confirmed plans to launch its ‘smart TV’ operating platform in Europe and the UK by early 2012
To date, Google TV in the US has been a disappointment, with little broadcaster support and, until recently, expensive devices, resulting in low adoption
The content issue is likely to dog Google TV, both here and in other European markets; access to key broadcaster TV and video programming will be a major challenge
Advancing its free-to-air TV project, France’s Canal+ is to buy Bolloré TV’s national channels for €465 million to gain (scarce) licences for FTA terrestrial broadcast
Canal+ plans to leverage its library of original programming to attract upscale audiences, neglected by commercial rivals
However, the Vivendi investment case of a 9% return on capital is built on incompatible assumptions about profit margins and market share – to grow the latter in a mature market, a channel needs to sacrifice the former
Whilst UK GDP growth crawls along at a snail’s pace in 2011, (real) private consumption, its principal component, has been in sequential decline since Q4 2010, dragging consumer facing industries down
UK media are not equally affected. The internet continues to grow through search as well as display, but we expect TV NAR to be flat in 2011
Press advertising is worst affected by the downturn due to its exposure to retail advertising on top of the structural shift of classifieds to the internet
ITV reported strong year-on-year growth in profits in H1 2011, enabling a substantial reduction of net debt and putting the company in a stronger position to invest in growth as it pursues its five year transformation plan
Important to longer term success, ITV Family share of viewing has held up, and ITV looks well placed to expand its market share of TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) over the next two years, albeit in an uncertain and challenging economic environment
Early signs of creative revival at ITV Studios are most encouraging, while online poses the toughest challenges, yet remains important because of the fundamental interactive synergies between online and broadcast television
We have revised our central case forecasts of total year-on-year NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) growth in 2011 from 5% to 1%, as the advertising outlook has progressively worsened since mid April
2011 is marked by a further round of consolidation in airtime sales and a number of noteworthy channel and programming changes
Channel 4 Sales, and above all its flagship Channel 4, appears the most challenged of the leading market players, while we expect the ITV group to continue to outperform the NAR market in the rest of 2011 and 2012