In this presentation we show our analysis of the UK mobile market performance to Q2 2012 and consider the outlook both in terms of market growth and competitive dynamics
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request.
Vodafone Europe’s June quarter service revenue growth contracted sharply to -1.6% from -0.2% in the previous quarter
Given various one-off factors, and a likely continued macroeconomic driven slowdown, we expect that Vodafone’s underlying competitive performance is unchanged
The outlook is still poor, with macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds joined by a self-inflicted problem in Spain. Cost control at least appears to be going well, with slowing smartphone sales growth keeping handset costs under control
France’s Orange Sport closed last month after France Télécom declined to bid for a renewal of its four-year licence to broadcast Ligue 1 football. The future of its sister film channel, Orange Cinéma Séries, remains unclear.
The strategic aim for Orange Sport was confused from the start – standalone profit centre or loss leader, fully fledged alternative to Canal+ or add-on to it.
Orange’s premium TV project was a failure: we estimate its cumulative losses at €1.2 billion, while Orange’s broadband market share and retail price premium shrank during the four years of its operation. But it did arguably strengthen Orange’s hand in carriage negotiations with Canal+.
YouView, the hybrid DTT/IPTV service backed by the public service broadcasters, is here, but with an initial retail box price of £300 it will be heavily dependent on the subsidies offered by ISP distributors BT and TalkTalk The TV market has evolved since YouView’s conception in 2008, with many other internet-enabled options now available; its managed and integrated approach gives it some advantages but doesn’t make it a ‘must have’ We expect YouView to mainly appeal to Freeview and BT Vision upgraders and project take-up between 1-3 million TV homes by 2015, though if the product improves and pricing falls dramatically it could see faster growth
In this report we show the findings of our 2012 UK mobile user survey. The report is a wide ranging analysis of the mobile market based on our consumer research, focusing on the competitive landscape among the mobile operators and smartphone manufacturers, and the changing consumer behaviour that has and will continue to impact the market
In this report we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to March 2012, based on the published results of the major service providers.
Highlights for the March quarter include broadband subscriptions exceeding 21 million, a sudden uptick in broadband market net additions and local loop unbundling accounting for a record 40% of broadband subscriptions. The proportion of unbundled lines that are fully unbundled exceeded two thirds for the first time.
This quarter we also include a look at pricing, including prices for high speed broadband that show how BT Retail is using high speed broadband to reduce the price advantage of its competitors.
In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request.
Further sharp year-on-year declines in viewing share by the leading commercial PSB channels, ITV1 and Channel 4, in Q1 2012 run contrary to the general stabilisation of viewing trends as Digital Switchover nears completion
The Channel 4 decline is more easily explained by exceptional factors, while closer examination of NAR trends suggest that ITV Family NAR has performed less well in recent quarters than results releases suggest
Once past Digital Switchover, digital convergence trends appear less of a threat towards the future stability of ITV and Channel 4 family viewing trends than the competitive threat from Sky as it raises its investment in UK programme origination
Vodafone Europe’s revenue growth improved by 1.5ppts on a reported basis and by 0.3ppts on an underlying basis; given the deterioration in macroeconomic conditions, this is a strong result, and Vodafone extended its outperformance of competitors
Margins were weaker with European EBITDA margin dropping about 1ppt on an underlying basis in H2. SAC/SRCs were for once well under control, but a very small rise in ‘other’ costs pushed margins down; with revenue growth well below inflation, maintaining margins is a massive challenge
The Group’s strategy continues to be sound, and is validated by its competitive outperformance, but market conditions are likely to keep its revenue growth negative and margins slightly declining for the next year at least