Sky delivered 5% year-on-year revenue growth over the first nine months at constant exchange rates, although operating profits fell due to several factors, most notably the massive step-up in UK Premier League TV payments under the new contract

On closer inspection, relatively weak UK & Ireland Q3 revenue growth compared with previous quarters largely reflects one-off special factors 

Otherwise, positive quarters for Sky Germany & Austria and Sky Italy and improving cost efficiencies suggest that the Sky Group remains broadly on track to deliver its Investor Day 2016 guidance objectives

As Spotify wavers around the breakeven point, the deal with UMG is good news for royalty costs and thus for the likely advent of the IPO rumoured for autumn 2017

Royalty costs will reduce if Spotify reaches the subscriber growth targets that have been agreed – these have not been disclosed, so are hard to track

Question marks persist over whether a two-week optional windowing of new releases on the premium tier will significantly drive upgrades from the free tier

The temporary cool-off in hype around VR following a very buzzy 2016 is not reducing the flow of investment and talent into the industry, notably in video production utilising 360Video technology; setting the stage for the development of a truly new entertainment medium

Fully immersive interactive worlds will continue to be the mainstay of the video games industry, while video entertainment will exist in a multi-track environment, with some genres (news, documentaries , natural history) making 360Video mainstream well before long-form narrative-driven entertainment

2017 will still be a challenging year for consumer device VR roll-out and mass market adoption; Oculus, Google, and Sony continue to seed the market, providing large scale funding and equipment directly to developers and content producers

 

 

Smartphone hardware did not take centre stage at the year’s premier mobile industry event in Barcelona, with license-built Nokias generating as much excitement as flagship smartphones from HTC, Sony and Samsung

In VR, AR and IoT, the most impressive signs of progress were under the hood rather than in flashy device announcements – as the actual use cases become more specific, so does hardware and software

Concrete business applications around the personal data generated by connected mobile devices was a major theme, with new types of automation and personalisation in services and media – and a growing market for security

21st Century Fox’s (21CF) second attempt to acquire Sky comes at a time when the TV world faces mounting online pressure, accompanied by erosion of territorial boundaries in an increasingly global marketplace 

Despite some investor concerns about Sky’s ability to deliver its operating targets over the next five years, we consider the underlying business to be sound and starting to show benefits that derive from its international scale 

21CF’s bid has a strong strategic logic in terms of growing international scale further and evolving a global platform that integrates shared content strengths in sports and entertainment with Sky’s top of class expertise in customer relationships 

Streaming is now mainstream and we predict 113% growth in expenditure on subscriptions for 2015-18 in the top four markets (US, UK, Germany and France)

Free vs paid-for streaming is the central question for the music ecosystem: free yields fractions of pennies, making subscription the only credible business model

Market leader Spotify is facing competition from tech giants Amazon, Apple and Google, with deep pockets, for whom content is a pawn in a larger game

Apple has now sold 40m iPads – we estimate 4 to 5m in the UK – and goes into the Christmas season with no credible competitors beyond Amazon’s Kindle Fire, which is so far only available in the USA

Android phones are selling in huge numbers at half the price or less of the iPhone, but would-be iPad competitors are the same price or higher. With the continued absence of a meaningful content ecosystem for Android tablets it is hard to see consumers buying them in substantial numbers

Competing Android tablets have sold around a tenth as many units as the iPad, but others have sold far less: RIM’s PlayBook has been a major disappointment, forcing RIM to write off $485m of inventory

Apple is now a $108bn company, with annual revenue up 66% from a year ago and 40% gross margins. September quarter iPhone sales dipped to 17m ahead of a new product launch, but Apple still sold 72m in the last 12m, compared to 40m in the 12m to September 2010

Apple has now sold 40m iPads for $20.3bn revenue, and 11m in the last quarter. All other competing devices have sold perhaps 4m. We expect Apple’s dominance to continue through 2012 and potentially beyond

Google’s Android sold even more smartphones than Apple, activating 150m in the last 12m and 55m in the September quarter. Yet in October Apple sold 4m of the new iPhone 4S in just three days, bringing in around $2.6bn: Google’s annual run-rate mobile revenue is now $2.5bn

The Guardian has finally launched its iPad app: of the UK’s paid daily newspapers all but the Mirror and Independent now have iPad apps. All of these require payment and all but the FT use Apple’s iTunes billing

Apple has moved to smooth out the buying and reading process with the new Newsstand feature for iPad and iPhone, which adds better discoverability and automatic downloads to the existing subscription offer. This also makes it harder for readers to move to other platforms

There are now 3-4m iPads in the UK: this is more than the 2m people who buy a broadsheet everyday, but it is not clear how many can be converted. Moreover, iPad editions bring in annual revenue per reader of £100-125 where a print reader averages £435: a scale problem remains

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) judgment in the Portsmouth pub landlady case looks to have opened the door to legitimising the private or domestic use of decoders to watch premium sports and other pay-TV content outside the territories for which they were licensed

The outcome could prove to be a significant commercial opportunity for Sky to expand its overseas distribution among residential customers, but an extra test for the Football Association Premier League (PL) as it designs the next round of contracts with a view to at least maintaining current revenues

The ECJ judgment is more ambiguous over the question of public screenings for commercial purposes against the wishes of the right holders and the conclusion appears some way off