Service revenue growth almost doubled this quarter to 2.4% aided by price rises in the UK, Spain, and France, but remains well below inflation-levels.
The revenue boost from in-contract price rises will ultimately disappear as customers recontract, dampening the EBITDA outlook as costs continue to rise.
Operators are looking to other strategies to strengthen their positions, including edging up new-customer pricing, M&A, and attracting wholesale MVNO business.
Vodafone's headline revenue growth of +3.7% is actually a small decline once Rest of World exchange depreciation is accounted for. Europe, however, delivered an improving revenue trend to +0.4%, as signalled at Vodafone's FY results announcement.
The mix and operating trends are less positive, with growth driven by low-margin B2B, and subscriber losses accelerating in German fixed. Investors will be weighing up whether these results are green shoots of a recovery or another false dawn.
Although the company may reach its guided EBITDA on assumed exchange rates, it looks set to fall short in euro terms, which has implications for FCF and dividend cover.
The Nordic pay-TV group is under severe financial stress after its stock crashed, dropping its market cap to just over 9% of its 2021 peak value, on top of increasing and unsustainable losses and debt.
Viaplay announced a full U-turn on its previous approach driven by international sports rights and Nordic noir series.
Following the results, Vivendi’s Canal+ bought a 12% stake, eyeing Viaplay's still healthy Nordic business and consolidation in Poland.
Providing home broadband connections via a mobile network (FWA) is gaining traction in certain markets where local conditions make it a viable alternative to fibre, such as New Zealand, Italy and the US.
FWA is a time-limited opportunity for most, with mobile traffic growth absorbing capacity for it and fixed traffic growth depleting the economic case. An ultimate shift to fibre is the best exit strategy.
In the UK, H3G's spare capacity could support up to 1 million FWA customers on a ten-year view—enough for a meaningful revenue fillip for H3G, but not enough to seriously disrupt the fixed market.
Reportedly, BT Sport is about to seal a deal to extend its coverage of the revamped Champions League until 2027. Amazon is going to step in with a weekly game, and the BBC will get the rights to the highlights.
In France, Canal+ has outbid Amazon to claim the full rights package thanks to a bid that has grown the total value of the rights by 28%.
With Canal+’s football content secured, the upcoming Ligue 1 auction may struggle to find bidders, a fate threatening other short-sighted leagues.
It was too good to be true: Ligue 1 TV receipts will not jump 44% as it expected, compounding its COVID-induced financial distress.
Canal+ could step in and is in a strong bargaining position.
With a lack of live sport, the lockdown weighed on incumbent pay-TV platforms’ subscriptions. SVOD providers leveraged their cheap positioning—Netflix and Amazon Prime Video now rank above other subscription services in Europe, and Disney+ had a successful launch.
Incumbents—Sky, Canal+, Movistar+—all pursue a twin-track strategy. They are positioning themselves as gatekeepers thanks to service bundles, while redirecting resources away from sports towards original series.
European productions are increasingly garnering audiences outside of their home markets, regardless of the production language. Netflix is a major conduit for European exports, due to personalisation of the interface and high-quality dubbing.
Following deadly border clashes between the 15th and 16th June, the Indian government has taken down 59 Chinese apps including TikTok, accusing them of illegally mining user data
India is TikTok's biggest international market, accounting for half of all users outside China. Chinese apps made up 38% of all app installs in India last year, second only to domestic apps
The India-China rivalry may spill over into more sectors as reports suggest India is reconsidering Huawei’s role in its 5G infrastructure plans. A ban would provide a fillip to US influence in the country
The COVID-19 crisis is compounding the already grim revenue prospects for upcoming football rights sales in continental Europe.
The financially weakest leagues in Italy and France are especially exposed. Serie A is exploring deals with private equity firms, with the pros and cons finely balanced.
There is a window of opportunity for Sky and Canal+—the adults in the room—to build coalitions with selected clubs to nudge leagues towards needed reforms including longer licence terms, reducing the number of clubs and more equal revenue splits.
When we look back at consumer expenditure on pay-TV and alternative entertainment options during past economic downturns across major countries, we find a broad confirmation of the industry’s comparative resilience.
Also found are variations between services sold through annual contracts and cancel-anytime rivals, a negative impact on big-ticket products, and opportunities for substitutional services.
Unique features in the current crisis include the suspension of sport broadcasts and an SVOD-rich offering which widens consumer options. If hardship persists, incumbents like Sky could face tougher times than during the financial crisis.