The value of the domestic rights of major European leagues is falling due to the declining competitive intensity between broadcasters.
The Premier League’s new rights deal extends its lead, while Serie A faces a 10% fall in revenue next season and Ligue 1 struggles to get a flat fee.
Sky and DAZN have cemented their status as Europe’s top football broadcasters. Amazon has refocused to one game per week.
The quest for sustainability in the UK national news industry is gaining ground, thanks to digital growth offsetting relentless print decline. The challenge of the print-to-digital transition has not faded, however, amidst the oncoming cliff-edge for print.
Nationals choosing the path of the walled garden on digital have out-performed those in pursuit of the ad-supported mass-market audience, whose ad yield per user is being compressed by more efficient scale platforms and the end of tracking technology.
Despite the challenges facing the news industry, the beacon of light shone by professional journalism has never been more important to humanity, to combat disinformation and misinformation on the internet, which Gen AI tools will only exacerbate.
The launch of a new free tier in Germany in December 2023 marks a new stage in DAZN’s strategy to transform into a broader sports destination platform.
The final weeks of 2023 also saw DAZN agree extensions to vital distribution deals with its most valuable partners: Sky, TIM and Movistar.
DAZN is focused on reaching breakeven on a monthly basis this year and its recently released 2022 accounts show large but narrowing losses, and a small first step taken towards this goal.
The UK’s ‘zombie’ economy—largely flat since March 2022—is due to the cost-of-living crisis weighing on households, with this exacerbated in 2023 by the rising cost of credit. Real private expenditure growth will be weakly positive in 2024 before strengthening in 2025 as headwinds recede
Our 2023 forecast of a nominal rise but real decline in display advertising was realised, with TV’s revenues falling while digital display rose. Advertiser spend online is justified by the channel’s size and growth, worth an estimated £406 billion in 2023
For 2024, much lower inflation and mildly positive real private expenditure growth points to 3-4% display advertising growth, with a stronger recovery anticipated in 2025
The Premier League will earn 3.5% more per year from its domestic rights for 2025- 29 than today, enough to maintain the gap with rival competitions.
Sky will pay 7% more for as many as 70% more games and cement the prominence of its Premier League coverage, while the Saturday 3pm slot could host the Women’s Super League.
TNT Sports secures its premium profile and Amazon shifts its focus to the Champions League.
DAZN has morphed from a purely OTT to a hybrid sports service, becoming the number two football broadcaster in Europe.
A revamped distribution strategy focused on partnerships with pay-TV operators has extended reach and improved coverage, while ARPU has grown from firmer pricing and more sophisticated packaging.
DAZN is now a more financially sustainable company that should reach breakeven next year and move into profitability thereafter, with additional upside from betting and retailing third-party sports services.
BT continued to perform well financially in Q2, with revenue and EBITDA growth remaining robust, and full year cashflow guidance nudged up.
ARPU growth remained robust across fixed, mobile and Openreach, but subscriber growth was weaker, especially in mobile and Openreach, and this will become more of a concern if it persists.
Maintaining growth across retail divisions will be a challenge as the price rise effect wanes, especially in weak economic conditions, and while Openreach’s FTTP roll-out is going well, full success is still not assured.
With a difficult price rise adjustment now behind it, VMO2’s subscriber momentum is much improved, in part aided by accelerated network expansion.
Backbook pricing remains under pressure on the fixed network with revenues down 1.2% in spite of sizeable price rises and footprint expansion—upcoming OTS may exacerbate this issue.
VMO2 has thus far only countered the downside of the UK’s fibre revolution. A new approach to branding and expansion of its addressable market are upside opportunities—with the ultimate potential to even deliver improvements on its previous position.
DAZN and Sky have renewed their current coverage of Serie A until 2029, at a slightly lower price and with the security of a five-year contract. The ‘league channel’ DTC option was rejected by clubs.
With bids expected soon in France and the UK, DAZN seems determined to become the dominant football broadcaster in Europe.
The Italian auction outcome confirms the real-term erosion of the value of football rights across Europe, but also a more mature approach from the league.
The Premier League has launched its first competitive rights auction since 2018, offering broadcasters a longer four-year cycle and 70 more live games.
Sky could reduce costs by cutting down on one weekly slot, but we expect it to fight for four packages, consistent with its history of prioritising the prominence of its Premier League coverage.
Competitive tension may be the strongest between TNT Sports and DAZN.