EE reported 4G subscriber numbers for the first time at the end of March; we estimate the 318k implies that over half of addressable joiners/upgraders are choosing to pay extra for 4G

The rest of EE’s results were more prosaic, with steady net adds and mobile service revenue growth declining slightly due to leap year and price increase timing effects

Vodafone and O2 are planning to launch 4G services in the summer, which may boost the market for all

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request

UK mobile revenue growth was steady in Q4 at -3.9%, only a fractional drop from -3.8% in the previous quarter, with underlying growth unchanged, and contract subscriber growth and ARPU trends also unwavering, though the market solidity masked more dramatic developments in service offerings with the launch of the new EE umbrella brand and its 4G service

With the 4G spectrum auction now concluded, we can expect Vodafone and O2 to launch 4G services in the summer and H3G in the autumn; EE is looking to stay one step ahead with its recently announced speed doubling, and the intensity of marketing around 4G may even help its own service

While 4G will provide the talking points, actual financial results in 2013 will depend more on 3G base level pricing remaining firm; the signs so far are positive, with O2 having nudged up its core pricing, and mid-contract price increases scheduled by O2 and EE

Sky Deutschland is reaping the benefits of its re-launch using BSkyB’s model, with an improving content offering and quality of user experience, plus a favourable environment for household consumption in Germany.

2012 results came in very close to our forecasts and we predict that Sky Deutschland will break even at EBITDA level in 2013 and turn cash flow positive in 2015.

The competitive context is benign and the horizon is clear until the next Bundesliga auction in 2016. But, in the meantime, cable, IPTV, FTA and OTT players are committed to widening their pay offers, which may put pressure on Sky’s subscriber growth and content costs.

Both subscriber and revenue growth in the UK home communications market perked up in Q4, with an easing of weather related supply-side constraints helping the former and firm pricing helping that latter. We expect both trends to continue into 2013

BT’s high speed broadband net adds accelerated in the quarter, as did that of the other DSL operators, albeit from a much lower base. High speed broadband is already a mass market phenomenon within the BT and Virgin Media subscriber bases, with it only a matter of time before this spreads further

Virgin Media had a record quarter, as it continues to benefit from being able to offer high broadband speeds at very competitive prices, with its planned acquisition by Liberty Global unlikely to change its strategy or performance going forward

The UK 4G spectrum auction raised a total of £2.3bn, broadly in line with similar auctions, although the highest quality spectrum raised less and the lowest quality spectrum raised more than might have been expected

The main short term consequences are as was expected beforehand; Vodafone and O2 will launch 4G services around May/June 2013 and H3G will launch in October 2013

Longer term, O2 and H3G may suffer from their lack of 2.6GHz spectrum, although with other bands likely to come free within the next ten years this may not affect them

EE’s Q4 results exhibited a resilient performance for a market leader, with net adds and revenue growth slightly declining, but likely in line with a weak market

The 4G launch and partial rebrand were implemented in October 2012, and resulted in little customer leakage (a substantial short term risk), but also little evidence yet of ARPU enhancement (a longer term upside)

With the rebrand successfully completed, a headstart in 4G established, and significant scope for merger synergy savings to come, the outlook is positive

Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 15 January 2013. The event featured talks by 14 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette.

Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 15 January 2013. The event featured talks by 14 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. This report provides edited transcripts of the talks given by nine of those speakers: Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO, WPP Tim Davie, Acting Director General, BBC Dan Cobley, Managing Director, Google UK & Ireland Michael Tobin, CEO, Telecity Group Liv Garfield, CEO, Openreach Dido Harding, CEO, TalkTalk Group Victor Zhang, CEO, Huawei UK & Ireland Cindy Rose, Executive Director of Digital Entertainment, Virgin Media Q&A: Dido Harding, Victor Zhang and Cindy Rose Ed Richards, CEO, Ofcom