Netflix resumed strong growth in domestic US streaming subscriptions in Q1 2012, but weak Q2 guidance and high churn reinforce doubts about long term profit growth in an increasingly competitive market. Netflix has embarked on a global expansion strategy in the belief that achievement of global scale will improve its bargaining power, but the rationale is questionable and the prospects of incremental profits at best long term. The Netflix UK and Ireland streaming launch in January 2012 exceeded expectations; however, the importance of the US and interlocking of established content creation and TV distribution interests underscore the challenge facing Netflix and the thinness of the line between success and failure.

On 9 April Facebook bought the 547-day-old Instagram for about $1 billion in cash and shares, acquiring 40 million users, strengthening its positioning in mobile and photo sharing and preventing anyone else from buying it first

That Instagram could grow to be so big, so quickly, and with just 13 staff and $7 million of funding shows how precarious Facebook’s market leadership might still be. This is not a one-off – many more companies will use cloud services, mobile and social to achieve similar growth in future

This acquisition comes in the context of explosive growth in mobile and social and an accompanying land grab by Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google and many others. More eye-catching deals are likely to follow

According to IABUK/PwC, internet advertising grew 14.4% like-for-like in 2011 to £4.8 billion, overtaking press to become the single largest advertising medium

Search was again the main growth driver, surging 17.5% to £2.7 billion last year, while display rose 13.4% and classifieds increased just 5.2% on the weak economy

We now forecast internet advertising will increase 14% in 2012 and 12% in 2013, taking spend to £6.1 billion or 36% of UK advertising, up from 30% in 2011

UK mobile advertising jumped 157% year-on-year to £203 million in 2011, marginally higher than our forecast of £180 million, with strong growth in both search and display

Mobile advertising now accounts for 6% of internet search and display spend, but still lags mobile devices’ share of internet consumption, which has been rising strongly due to rapid smartphone and tablet adoption, and we estimate is now at around 15%

We expect much of the lag between mobile’s share of internet consumption and ad spend to disappear over the next five years, indicating continued high growth

Google+, the social network, has around 100 million users worldwide, although user growth appears to have stalled and usage is low on weak network effects

Facebook users, now 70% of the adult internet audience (excluding China), have no incentive to switch to Google+, starving the social network of vital momentum

Facebook is likely to dominate socially enhanced search, unless Google+ takes off, which seems unlikely

Three drivers are increasing UK internet consumption: a growing number of older PC internet users; digital natives, especially younger people with high incomes, spending more time online; and rising adoption of the mobile internet

Despite rapid mobile user growth, internet usage remains a PC-centric experience as time spent on mobile is constrained by screen size, ‘on the go’ use and data pricing. These factors are less likely to inhibit tablet use

Everyone uses the internet as a retail, communications and information service and traffic is growing as older users come online. But under-35s are increasingly using the internet as an entertainment destination as well, sharing video content on social networks and driving a huge increase in time spent on YouTube

In this presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to December 2011, based on the published results of the major service providers.

Highlights for the December quarter include a return to the lower rate of broadband market growth seen prior to mid-2010, accelerating growth in the number of subscribers to high speed broadband and the continuing increase in market share of BT Retail and BSkyB at the expense of virtually all other players

This quarter’s edition includes a look at Openreach’s wholesale FTTP On Demand, planned for launch in 2013.

Following announcements by Virgin Media to double the speeds used by most cable customers, and by BSkyB to launch high speed broadband offer in April based on Openreach’s wholesale VDSL product, by 2016 we now expect about half of UK residential broadband subscribers to be on high speed broadband, i.e. xDSL or GPON at 30 Mbit/s plus, and DOCSIS at 20 Mbit/s plus

Facebook’s IPO prospectus confirms that the social network is an internet colossus, with 845 million users worldwide and $3.7 billion in revenue in 2011

Growth potential in display advertising, which accounts for the majority of revenue, seems limited with increasing mobile substitution in major ad markets and future user expansion largely in lower yielding countries

There is significant potential to increase income from payments and other businesses beyond social games, but the company’s strategy is unknown at this point

VMed’s Q4 results were again mixed, with underlying cash flow growth hit by high capital expenditure primarily relating to accelerating TiVo box installations

But this strong take up of next generation TV, and real progress at the Mobile and Business divisions, give us confidence that the company’s strategy is working

Management guidance of further cash flow growth from the second half of 2012 is credible, though we continue to expect underlying growth to be limited

BT’s results for the December quarter saw continuing trends of gradual improvement at BT Retail and efficient deployment of next generation access at Openreach, plus strong control of unallocated property costs, enabling management to issue slightly improved group-level guidance for the current financial year to March

Cash flow growth at group level continued to be compromised by the cost of overseas expansion at Global Services and a continuing shift to LLU and IP-based services at BT Wholesale

Improved guidance suggests that progress at Retail and Openreach is sufficiently strong to generate positive, if modest growth in cash flow at group level, despite the slower pace of improvement at other divisions and a challenging economic environment