A newspaper pay wall subscriber is worth only a quarter to a third of a print buyer: even if every single print buyer is successfully converted to the pay wall, newspapers will still face a basic problem of scale

Pay walls will not be able to compensate for lower revenue per reader by expanding the audience for paid news, due to the long term decline of circulation, free online news, 24-hour broadcast news and free-sheets 

Future change will be radical: publishers may need to consider producing a newspaper its loyal readers recognise and value with just 200 rather than 500 journalists

The bounce back in TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenue) now looks set to continue into Q4, resulting in full year- on-year growth of about 12.5%

The bounce back has more than reversed the -11% fall in 2009, although it still leaves TV NAR in 2010 about -5% below pre-recessionary levels in 2007 (nominal prices). Meanwhile, persistent worries about the economy and the impact of government debt reduction measures suggest flat growth in 2011

Much depends in 2012 on the outcome of Ofcom’s review of the airtime minutage quota and distribution rules, where its own commissioned econometric analysis suggests that harmonisation efforts leading to increases in airtime supply could cause large reductions in TV NAR

After Part One: Overview and Recruitment, our two part annual report on UK classifieds continues with Part Two: Property, Auto (used) and Directories. As with recruitment, a step change downwards has occurred in the underlying volumes of transactions driving classifieds in property, autos and directories, most dramatically in the UK housing market, bringing down with it the estate agency spend on advertising that is the backbone of the local/regional newspaper industry.

Our two part annual report on UK classifieds starts with Part One: Overview and Recruitment, and follows with Part Two: Property, Auto (used) and Directories. The migration of classifieds from print media to online media accelerated during the recession, reducing classifieds revenues by 13.3% year-on-year to £5 billion in 2009, down to one third of UK advertising spend. Despite the economic recovery, we see no prospect of a ‘bounce back’ due to historically low volumes of activity in recruitment and property, along with the deflationary effect of the print-to-digital migration.

This report covers internet advertising and e-commerce in the ‘big 3’ European markets of the UK, Germany and France. Together, we estimate they generated €8.9 billion in online ads in 2009 or 65% of the continent’s total internet advertising. We provide detail on search and e-commerce, display and classifieds.