"There's a lot of benefit to scale," said Claire Enders, founder and chief executive of Enders Analysis. "They are combining two very strong entities, that are well-placed in a number of different major European markets, including the UK."
François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis, has pointed out that the U.K. regulator recently blocked a deal for RedBird Capital Partners — backed by Abu Dhabi-based International Media Investments (IMI) to buy the Telegraph Media Group.
The pressures to do a deal are similar to those that prompted Netflix and Paramount to duke it out for WBD. Streaming, social media feeds and content providers like YouTube are all jostling for audience share. The result is that, in the UK, households have cut the time they spend watching public service broadcasters to 88 minutes a day, roughly half what it was a decade ago. And those aged 16-34 watch for just 21 minutes, according to Enders Analysis.
They weren’t alone – indeed Enders Analysis found that around half of media groups reported a decline in search traffic over the past year, thanks to AI Overviews impacting website visits.
The need to grasp this opportunity led the PPA to commission a major new report with Enders Analysis.
The purpose of the report was to move beyond anecdote and look “right back to the fundamentals” of people’s behaviour, what they do, what they trust, and what they value. The report found that 77% of users want to know if content has been created by AI, and that “authentic, personal, original” is the most valued attribute of human-generated content (81%).
The report also found that publishers should frame their strategy around four durable customer needs: trust, relevance, utility and community. Vitally, it also suggested that the winning strategies will be those that meet consumers where they are, with formats and services designed for how people actually behave now.
It is therefore a battle for hegemony that the Hollywood giants are waging. The objective: to reach critical mass and recoup the enormous investments in content demanded by the market. And the leader knows how to set the pace: for 2026 alone, Netflix will inject no less than $20 billion. So what can the competition do? "Consolidation is inevitable," replies François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis.
Tom Harrington at Enders Analysis says: “Whatever they say, when Fox combined with Disney, they made fewer films. When people merge, they make less stuff. It's just how it works. So there’s fewer films costing more money meaning there’s not enough stuff in the cinema to attract a lot of people regularly. The cinema business model is not really selling cinema tickets as 60% of that money goes to the studio. It’s getting people in every night to sell popcorn and drinks. That model thrives on people going more rather than less.”
According to figures from Enders Analysis, the league brought in €2.1bn from such deals last season, compared with €1.4bn for the Spanish, German, Italian and French leagues combined.
“Trump is reshuffling the cards,” said François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis, adding that “as long as tensions are not resolved, and there is uncertainty, they represent “a risk on investment and on long term decisions made by companies,” including those in the media and entertainment sphere.
“I think countries like Canada and the U.K. should be the most sensitive since there is a lot of production by American studios and for the American market taking place in both countries,” Godard noted.
“Then there are question marks regarding the European policy towards American tech exports [to Europe] and American tech giants, as a form of retaliation,” Godard went on to add. “The matter is certainly not settled.”
Claire Holubowskyj, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis, said that a restructuring by itself was unlikely to 'move the dial' until the results of any changes began to be reflected in the advertising giant's finances.
“It’s completely different to scheduling content on a pretty closed ecosystem,” Tom Harrington, an analyst at Enders Analysis, said. “Casting money onto programming that’s going to be on this enormous platform like YouTube, where someone will probably never see what you’re making for them. It’s a completely different kettle of fish.”