15 December 2017 - 4:24pm -- Olga De Giovanni

Alice Enders was quoted in an article on the Disney Fox deal. The U.S. entertainment giant announced Thursday that it will spend $52.4 billion to swallow most of 21st Century Fox, including its minority stake in British pay TV provider Sky. However, long before it was for sale, Fox struck a $15 billion deal to buy the 61% of Sky it didn't already own. The takeover -- inked a year ago -- has repeatedly been delayed due to a U.K. government review and its future is in doubt. Alice said "this whole thing has snowballed with delays. The politics of the situation are very demanding". Moreover, Disney said in a statement on Thursday that Fox "remains fully committed to completing the current Sky offer" and expects the purchase to be finalized by June 2018. When the Disney deal closes, it would then assume full control of Sky. But the prospect of further delays looms large. Alice added that if Disney -- and not Fox -- were to make a future bid, the political opposition would "melt away."

Recruitment classified marketplace

A strong UK labour market, with record low unemployment but historically high vacancies, has supported growth in the recruitment industry, though trends may be peaking as we reach unknown territory. These trends play out in the recruitment market before they become apparent in the labour market

Despite the fragmentation of the online recruitment listings marketplace, Indeed is well-placed to dominate this space due to its increased scale and aggressive investment strategy

Auto classified marketplace

Print advertising in the autos classifieds marketplace keeps declining, but significant continued online growth steadies the helm

Five years on from new car financing innovations, and exasperated by changes in consumer behaviour towards greener tech, the used car market is braced for a flood

Auto Trader’s competitors force it to keep innovating, although having saturated the market, its dominance gives it enough headroom to worry about the weather breaking

Vertical marketplaces overview and property classified outlook

The slowing UK economy since Q3 2016 has had a knock-on effect on the property and autos marketplaces underlying UK classified advertising revenues, with house prices slowing, transactions stabilising (instead of rising), and new car registrations down sharply in 2017 to date. Recruitment activity by agencies and employers has instead been dynamic as the UK nears full employment

the Guardian

14 December 2017 - 11:42am -- Olga De Giovanni

Claire Enders was quoted in an article on Rupert Murdoch who is set to announce a $60bn (£45bn) deal to sell assets in 21st Century Fox, including a 39% stake in Sky and a Hollywood studio, to rival Disney. The deal, which will reportedly be announced before the New York stock exchange opens on Thursday, or around midday UK time, marks a turning point in an empire building career that started in the 1950s and is expected to lead to a split in the Murdoch family dynasty. Rupert’s son James Murdoch, the Fox chief executive, will leave the company, either to join Disney in a senior role or set up his own venture. Claire said “It is a fundamental parting of ways between James and his father. It is an extraordinary change of dynamic. It means another company other than Fox will own Sky in due course. The level of power the Murdochs would have had owning 100% of Sky, including Sky News, and the newspapers and the issues that has raised will be washed away”.

UK online ad forecast 2017-2019: A grey digital market

We estimate that UK online ad spend grew by 12.3% this year, with growth concentrated almost exclusively in mobile search and social in-feed advertising (particularly video), and mostly incremental to overall ad spend

Even after payments to publishers and distributors, Google and Facebook captured 80% of all net new spend in the market, and 96% of it flowed through their platforms


13 December 2017 - 11:30am -- Olga De Giovanni

Alice Enders was quoted in an article on the impending acquisition by Disney of Fox assets, which is believed to have major international implications. There are a handful of key areas of interest, including the creation of an international box office behemoth (and its concentration of power); and the face-off between a Disney/Fox OTT service and current global leader Netflix. In fact, earlier this year Disney was pulling its movies from Netflix beginning in 2019 and will launch its own ad-free, direct-to-consumer platform by late that year. However, Disney would not be entirely new to the offshore streaming party. It launched its Disney Life OTT service for kids in the UK in late 2015. Alice said it’s “not doing as well as Netflix because it’s a different proposition. What’s missing for Disney Life is the adult piece” which Fox would bring. She contends, “Disney doesn’t need Fox, it needs its assets for a credible OTT offering”.

UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q3 2017: The ARPU challenge

UK residential communications market revenue growth dipped to 2.1% in Q3. While volume growth continued to decline, the main driver was weakening ARPU growth, which was partly caused by price rise timing effects but there was also an underlying contribution

Longer term, slowing market volume growth has contributed to the market revenue growth drop over the last year, but slowing ARPU growth is also playing its part, and maintaining ARPU growth is becoming a major challenge for the operators given the discounting required to win and retain customers


11 December 2017 - 11:31am -- Olga De Giovanni

Gill Hind was quoted in an article on how the premium video marketplace will evolve over the next few years. Gill highlighted what she believes is a dramatic decline in under-24s watching TV, said online SVOD giants like Netflix and Amazon are creating audiences for global content, and that they will dominate commissioning for super-premium content with international appeal. To complete the list of bad news, only 60% of all video viewing by under-24s will be captured by existing broadcasters by 2026, she said. The good news is that 80% of all video viewing in 2026, across the population as a whole, will be with today’s broadcasters. Most people will continue to get their localised content – which accounts for the vast majority of viewing – from these broadcasters. Hind concluded that the online giants are not going to compete with public service broadcasters in the UK, at least, and that their content will prove to be complementary and not substitutional. “The death of TV is clearly exaggerated,” she told the London audience.


Subscribe to Enders Analysis RSS