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Publications

Format: 2014-07
Format: 2014-07
Sector(s) Datesort icon

UK commercial radio: stable market with organic growth prospects

UK radio listening remains very healthy, with the plethora of internet radio and music streaming services now available barely affecting average listening time which has decreased by only 6% (11 minutes per day) since 2008 Commercial radio has maintained a consistent 43% share over this period, but its audience is getting older, as those that grew up with it remain loyal, and the population itself gets older.

Media, Music and Radio July 2014 Access this report

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UK quarterly internet trends Q1 2014

The UK’s love affair with mobile devices continued in Q1 2014, with four times as many smartphones and tablets as PCs shipped during the quarter. Smartphones now account for three quarters of mobile phone sales, and shipments of tablets exceed sales of PCs, though the latter improved during the quarter

Media, Mobile, Internet, Technology, Telecoms July 2014 Access this report

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European mobile in Q1 2014: Underlying remains weak, but consolidation progresses

European mobile service revenue growth improved to -7.6% in Q1 2014 from -9.0% in the previous quarter, but most of the improvement came from a drop in the regulated MTR cut impact, with underlying growth only improving 0.2ppts

This is in spite of continued improvements in GDP growth and the highest level of consumer confidence in six years, confirming that the often-blamed economic conditions actually have been having little impact on the market, with competitive intensity the real cause

Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms, Telecoms July 2014 Access this report

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UK home video: digital switchover

The British Video Association has released full year figures for 2013 for the UK home video market, which reveal that growth in digital video, especially in over-the-top subscription services e.g. Netflix, offset the fall in spend on physical media last year, reversing the previous downward trend

The bad news is that DVD’s decline is set to quicken, as the number of households with stand-alone players has begun to fall, though there should be some respite this year from sales of huge box office hits such as Disney's Frozen and Warner Bros.' Gravity

Media, TV, Internet July 2014 Access this report

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Sky Italia wins no price hike football auction

After a three-week long “messy and opaque” high drama auction Sky retained its broadcast rights for all Italy’s Serie A games for 2015-18 with a negligible 1% price increase.

Its rival Mediaset managed to keep hold of the top fixtures, but its coverage shrinks by 18% whilst paying 35% more. A deal earlier this year for the Champions’ League rights will add considerably to Mediaset’s total costs.

Media, TV, Non-UK Media July 2014 Access this report

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UK mobile market Q1 2014: Heading for positivity

UK mobile service revenue growth remained relatively healthy at -1.6% in Q1 2014, despite the absence of some favourable one-off factors in the previous quarter, consolidating the improvements seen in 2013. Underlying growth improved a touch to 0.3%, and given that the regulatory impact will drop out next quarter, reported revenue growth may well turn positive in Q2

Mobile, Telecoms June 2014 Access this report

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Ofcom fibre margin squeeze test: Putting the brakes on BT Sport?

Ofcom’s fibre margin squeeze test’s initial indicative assessment concludes that BT’s current wholesale/retail pricing is ‘close to the boundary’ of creating a squeeze on its competitors

While BT can take comfort that it is at least close to passing the test, its DSL competitors (Sky, TalkTalk et al) can take comfort that BT cannot make life materially more difficult for them without failing it

Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms June 2014 Access this report

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Putting out Fires: Amazon's phone

Amazon has announced a new smartphone, the Fire Phone – a premium-priced device with some unique features and solid hardware; only available in the US at first, its high price and small number of apps limit its appeal

Although initial sales are likely to be low and mainly confined to Amazon Prime members, in the short term the purpose of Fire Phone is simple: to drive increased mobile sales of everything Amazon sells

Media, Mobile, Internet, Technology, Telecoms June 2014 Access this report

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Newspaper advertising: temporary reprieve

National newspaper advertising fell 8% last year (and by 28% since 2007), but we believe a stronger economic outlook will slow the decline in 2014 to about 6%, even if volatility month-to-month makes budgeting and management a relentless challenge.The local and regional press should also experience some—but smaller—reprieve, though the sector will continue to haemorrhage national display advertising, so the sector focus must return to local enterprises.

Media, Press, Internet June 2014 Access this report

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UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q1 2014: Converged growth

Market revenue growth in the UK residential communications sector was surprisingly robust in Q1 2014, rising a touch to over 5% (or around 4% excluding the direct impact of BT Sport) from just under 5% the previous quarter, despite facing a number of headwinds

Revenue growth at the top four operators has converged to around 4% for all, which marks a major long term turnaround for BT and TalkTalk, who back in 2012 were both experiencing firmly declining revenue well below market growth, and have since done much to stabilise their subscriber bases and sustain ARPU growth

Media, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms June 2014 Access this report

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TV and video advertising boom in the UK

Strong growth in the UK economy has created a very positive short term outlook for display advertising, with TV Net Advertising Revenues (NAR) expected to increase by 5% in 2014.

That bright prospect is nonetheless overshadowed by online video advertising, where 2014 is expected to add almost £200 million to the estimated £300 million spent in 2013. YouTube is leading the way, but the TV broadcasters also stand to benefit.

Media, TV, Internet, Technology June 2014 Access this report

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Sky Europe - the latest vision

The latest vision of Sky Europe under discussion between 21st Century Fox and BSkyB has 21st Century Fox maintaining its share in BSkyB at 39%, while BSkyB buys out 21st Century Fox’s interests in Sky Deutschland and Sky Italia Agreeing the right price will be complicated by the contrasting fortunes of Sky Deutschland, which is enjoying a sustainable boom, and Sky Italia, which, although well run, is holding on to marginal profits in Europe’s most inflated football rights market and in a structurally stagnant and weak economic climate Today, there appear only modest operating efficiencies

Media, TV, Fixed line, Non-UK Media, Telecoms June 2014 Access this report

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Vodafone Q4 2013/14 results: Still weak, recovery some way off

Vodafone Europe’s service revenue growth improved by 1.1ppts to -8.5% in the March quarter, but this was all driven by a waning regulatory impact, with underlying growth nudging down slightly

The company’s service revenue growth improved a fraction more than its competitors, but it has barely narrowed the substantial gap, and contract net adds share fell after three consecutive quarters of improvement

Mobile, Telecoms May 2014 Access this report

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Sky Deutschland forecasts to 2017

In Q1 2014 Sky has reaped the rewards of its marketing strategy focused on high quality longer term subscribers with churn hitting a record low, sustaining net adds, while ARPU growth remains healthy However we perceive no change in the underlying trend: Sky’s profitability should rise smoothly towards an EBITDA margin approaching 20% in fiscal 2017 – the last year of the current Bundesliga contract In a market slow to adopt digital innovations Sky is comfortably ahead of the competition – even if trailing international peers.

Media, TV, Non-UK Media May 2014 Access this report

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TalkTalk Group Q4 2013/14 results: Solid net adds, more-than-solid revenue growth

TalkTalk achieved solid broadband net adds, accelerating TV net adds and 5% revenue growth in the March quarter, and a significant price rise in April/May should support this level going forward

EBITDA is still suffering from set-top box subsidies, but the company is confident in significant expansion going forwards

Mass market adoption of fibre remains the biggest risk to TalkTalk as a discount brand, but for the moment this is not happening within its base, and TV could help it escape this niche

Fixed line, Telecoms May 2014 Access this report

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The media day

We have estimated the breakdown of the media day for UK adults (16+) using standard industry sources. The charts in the attached PDF present a picture of overall time spent with different media in the UK

Over the last 10-15 years the digitisation of content, coupled with internet connectivity and device proliferation, particularly recently with smartphones (now at 63% penetration) and tablets (35%), have given individuals far more ways and means to consume media and communicate with each other

Media, Technology, Telecoms May 2014 Access this report

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BT Q4 2013/14 results: Impressive revenue, Sport holds back profit

BT had a solid Q4, with a continuing improvement in BT Consumer metrics and revenue growth the highlight, mitigated by weaknesses at BT Business and Wholesale

Overall Group revenue growth was positive again at 1%, and EBITDA growth of 2% would have been much higher had it not been for the impact of BT Sport

Despite revenue growth now being firmly positive, BT has only nudged up its guidance for 2014/15 and 2015/16, with the costs of BT Sport broadly counteracting progress with cost cutting

Fixed line, Telecoms May 2014 Access this report

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The New York Times: still a long way to go

NYTNow, a new iPhone-only app offering a selection of New York Times journalism at a lower price, is the latest, pretty well executed manifestation of the company’s gradual change into a digital news business

A year after its unveiling, we review the progress of the company’s digital growth strategy, and point to some areas of concern, especially around video advertising

The biggest challenge the Times faces is to reengineer its journalism to appeal to a much broader digital audience, and to do so before others seize the opportunity its caution to date has opened up

Media, Press, Telecoms May 2014 Access this report

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Virgin Media Q1 2014 results: Volume, revenue and profitability improving

Improving volume trends and ARPU drove Virgin Media’s cable revenue growth to improve from 3.0% to 3.6%, helped by a firm price increase implemented during the quarter

Underlying OCF growth improved more dramatically, from -1% to +6%, with synergy benefits, lower marketing costs and lower premium channel cost growth some of the main drivers

While volume growth is still modest, solid ARPU growth and cost control should allow continued strong OCF growth through the rest of the year

Media, Mobile, TV, Fixed line, Telecoms May 2014 Access this report

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Scotland independence briefing

The referendum on Scotland’s independence from the UK, which will take place on 18 September 2014, has seismic implications for businesses trading there, especially financial service providers, but little impact for businesses in rUK

Although the No vote remains ahead, the Yes vote has gained significant ground and the likely outcome is now too close to call. If the Yes vote prevails, Scotland will constitute a new and separate market of 5.3 million individuals, compared to the UK’s single market of 63 million today

Media, Telecoms May 2014 Access this report

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