Publications

Format: Jan 2019
sort descending Sector(s) Date
UK consumer perspective on Internet of Things

The UK is a prime market for sales to consumers of IoT products with obvious and compelling use cases: wearables surf perennial social trends such as fitness and diet, while smart home solutions address energy use, safety and security

British Gas’ Active Hive Heating, first to market and the top smart thermostat brand in the UK, is facing competition from the Nest Learning Thermostat from Nest Labs, while Samsung’s SmartThings provides safety and security in the home

A substantial barrier to sales of IoT products to consumers lies in their concerns regarding the privacy and security of the personal data collected online. This data should be safe under the UK’s data protection regime, although well-publicised hacks highlight compliance issues on the part of data controllers

  • Apple
  • Google
  • Samsung
Internet, Media, Technology 29 October 2015
UK digital ad forecast 2016-2018: Strong but uneven growth

UK digital advertising has enjoyed strong growth in 2016, with forecast growth of 12.7% for the full year, just scraping under the £10 billion milestone

However, this growth is highly uneven, being led by mobile display and mobile search, while desktop spend looks set to decline by over 5% year-on-year. More significantly, 90% of the growth is accruing to the two big players: Facebook and Google

Cross-device campaigns, the convergence of marketing and advertising functions, and new consumption trends all threaten our traditional categorisations of online ad spend

  • Facebook
  • Google
Internet, Media, Mobile 30 November 2016
UK Digital TV Forecasts

This note provides our forecast for the number of UK households able to receive extra television through satellite, cable and terrestrial multi-channel platforms. Though Sky’s performance has been strong this year, subscriber growth has been largely at the expense of cable and digital terrestrial. We expect this pattern – Sky outperformance within a slowly growing multi-channel universe – to continue. We are pessimistic about the prospects for Freeview, the BBC’s new digital terrestrial platform. The programme offering is weak and too directed towards the under 35s, who now largely already have digital television. The technical problems of obtaining better coverage for the service remain severe.

Media 6 November 2002
UK Digital TV Platform Growth

The success of Freeview has ignited demand from channel operators to jump on board. The lure of Freeview is exemplified by this week's decision of Channel 4 to broadcast E4 free-to-air. The enticement is the advertising promise of such a large potential audience. But, how big an advertising opportunity is it really?

Media 27 April 2005
UK Digital TV Platform Growth

UK digital TV (DTV) growth is rocketing ahead, but how fast? Ofcom and BARB – the two ‘official’ sources – agree that growth has been faster since Q4 2003 and that Freeview is the main reason, but are issuing increasingly divergent estimates. Ofcom is, in our view, overestimating Freeview and BSkyB homes. We prefer BARB's methods and rely on its estimate of 48.1% of UK TV homes (11.7 million DTV homes).

Media 7 June 2004
UK Digital TV Trends

This report provides an update on the major trends in the UK digital TV market. We use a variety of consumer market research data, which all offer a consistent picture of trends in the business.

Sky is doing well. But the evidence of the last quarter’s results suggests that it is not out of the wood yet.

Media 21 November 2001
UK Digital Upfronts 2015: going mobile

This year marked the second annual IABUK Digital Upfronts. As well as Facebook, Google/YouTube, Aol, Yahoo!, Twitter, BuzzFeed, Vice and others, several traditional media companies – Sky, The Guardian and Global Radio – participated, reflecting the rising importance of digital media and digital media buyers to their businesses

Many of the pitches were informed by the key shifts in online content: it is increasingly cross platform, driven by mobile devices and focused on video programming, and these formed the main themes of the event

A key piece of context is the rise of social media and the shift to programmatic buying, which continue to driven down pricing for all but the most valuable inventory – audience scale, high value audiences and premium content have never been more essential

  • Facebook
  • Guardian Media Group
  • Sky
  • Twitter
  • Yahoo
  • YouTube
Internet, Media, Mobile, Technology, UK Media 1 December 2015
UK Digital Upfronts and internet advertising update

Recently we attended the inaugural IABUK Digital Upfronts, in which 11 digital media companies pitched their wares to advertising agencies and advertisers.

UK growth in internet advertising is now powered by mobile, social and video, and these three areas were the focus of the Upfronts.

The Upfronts are symbolic of the rising importance of digital media in the UK and worldwide; while broadcast television remains the king of brand advertising, marketing and advertising are becoming less TV-centric.

  • Yahoo
  • Google
  • Facebook
  • Microsoft
Internet, Media 3 November 2014
UK DTV forecasts to 2017 June 2008 update

Digital TV growth has consistently exceeded expectations since the launch of Freeview in October 2002, while 2007 saw a record annual increase in digital TV homes reception from 72.0% to 82.3%. These forecasts update our previous forecasts of DTV platform growth issued in December 2007 (see UK DTV Homes Platform Forecasts: 2003-2017 [2007-116]), taking into account the very strong final quarter of 2007 and recent market developments

Media, TV 21 June 2008
UK DTV forecasts to 2018 March 2009 update

UK Digital TV (DTV) growth has finally started to slow significantly. By the end of 2008, 86% of TV homes and 91% of the population living in TV homes had DTV reception on one or more sets

Almost the only growth now is coming from the satellite sector, as Freeview digital terrestrial TV (DTT) reception reaches its upper limit prior to the full commencement of digital switchover (DSO) in spring 2009. This will see the digital technical household coverage of the main PSB channels extend from 80% to 98.5% by the completion of DSO in 2012. These forecasts update our previous forecasts issued in June 2008 (see UK DTV Homes to 2017 June update [2008-62])

 

Media, TV 27 March 2009
UK DTV Homes Platform Forecasts: 2003-2017

Just as digital switchover (DSO) has finally begun, TV broadband convergence is beginning to make its mark in the UK following the launch of hybrid broadcast reception and IPTV services over DSL. In this context, UK DTV Homes Platform Forecasts: 2003-2017 updates our long-term DTV platform homes forecasts from 2006 (UK DTV Platform Growth [2006-40]), covering the digital satellite (DST), cable (DCT) and terrestrial (DTT) platforms

Media, TV, Telecoms, Fixed Line 20 December 2007
UK DTV Platform Growth

The UK continues to be the largest and fastest growing national digital TV (DTV) market in Europe. We now expect 75% of UK TV homes to be equipped with digital reception by the end of 2006, rising to over 85% by the commencement of digital switchover in autumn 2008.

We have argued that mobile operators offering free broadband makes little sense from an economic perspective, and it now appears that it has little draw for consumers as well (which is lucky given its very high cost)

A large number of mobile operators are launching ‘convergence’ offers in Europe (including Vodafone across all its major subsidiaries), and this poor result in the UK suggests that this will prove a needless distraction for them

Media 15 August 2006
UK DTV platform growth: 2005-20150

With the completion of digital switchover still on track for mid 2012, stabilisation of the main digital broadcast platforms is expected, with roughly equal numbers of subscription pay-TV and free TV homes, though with marked differences between the platforms in terms of demographic composition and the proportion of pay-TV customers

Further marked differences exist between the satellite, cable and terrestrial platforms with regard to PVR adoption, notably higher in pay-TV households where distribution can benefit from box subsidies and greater product consistency. National PVR penetration of TV homes is expected to grow from slightly below 50% in 2010 to over 70% in 2015

As DSO nears completion, the stage is set for broadband connectivity. Although household penetration of internet-enabled TV devices is expected to exceed 50% by 2015, the emergence of hybrid broadcast and broadband services is expected to proceed much more slowly, limited by a number of factors – not least the ability of service providers to monetise their non-linear on demand offerings

  • Virgin Media
  • Sky
Technology, Internet, TV, Media 17 December 2010
UK economic outlook: stagnation

Post financial crisis, the dynamics of the UK economy have been reset, as consumers shun credit-fuelled expenditure – the latest GDP data for Q2 2012, confirming the ‘technical’ recession, reinforces our view of an economy moving sideways rather than recovering.

Household consumption in real terms has been in moderate decline since Q4 2010, on real disposable income declines, in turn due to a combination of weak nominal earnings growth due to flat productivity growth, and high inflation.

Although inflation has decelerated markedly in 2012, we continue to expect household consumption to exhibit little meaningful growth for the foreseeable future, which in turn can only be bad news for media and telecoms companies.

Telecoms, Media 26 July 2012
UK economy: same diagnosis, new prognosis

Both the Bank of England and the Office for Budget Responsibility have in the last month severely downgraded their view of the long-term underlying growth potential of the UK economy, reflecting a new forecasting consensus that the UK’s disastrous productivity performance post-crisis is not a blip but indicative of a disappointing new normal

The fundamentals of the UK economy, however, remain little altered from earlier this year – investment is weak, household finances are emaciated, people are compensating for weak productivity by simply working more and harder, and consumption growth is approaching its limits

The outlook for the next five years is bleak – earnings are in store for the longest squeeze in living memory and inequality is set to explode. Factoring in the risk of recession and/or of a disorderly Brexit transition, the BoE/OBR’s projections could yet seem over-optimistic

Brexit, Media, Public Policy 18 December 2017
UK fixed telecoms market: broadband and telephony trends to Q1 2012

In this report we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to March 2012, based on the published results of the major service providers.

Highlights for the March quarter include broadband subscriptions exceeding 21 million, a sudden uptick in broadband market net additions and local loop unbundling accounting for a record 40% of broadband subscriptions. The proportion of unbundled lines that are fully unbundled exceeded two thirds for the first time.

This quarter we also include a look at pricing, including prices for high speed broadband that show how BT Retail is using high speed broadband to reduce the price advantage of its competitors.

  • Sky
  • O2
  • Cable & Wireless
  • EE
  • TalkTalk
  • Virgin Media
Telecoms, Fixed Line 13 June 2012
UK fixed telecoms market: broadband and telephony trends to Q4 2011

In this presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to December 2011, based on the published results of the major service providers.

Highlights for the December quarter include a return to the lower rate of broadband market growth seen prior to mid-2010, accelerating growth in the number of subscribers to high speed broadband and the continuing increase in market share of BT Retail and BSkyB at the expense of virtually all other players

This quarter’s edition includes a look at Openreach’s wholesale FTTP On Demand, planned for launch in 2013.

Following announcements by Virgin Media to double the speeds used by most cable customers, and by BSkyB to launch high speed broadband offer in April based on Openreach’s wholesale VDSL product, by 2016 we now expect about half of UK residential broadband subscribers to be on high speed broadband, i.e. xDSL or GPON at 30 Mbit/s plus, and DOCSIS at 20 Mbit/s plus

  • Virgin Media
  • TalkTalk
  • Sky
  • O2
  • Cable & Wireless
  • EE
Fixed Line, Telecoms, Internet, Media 27 February 2012
UK Fixed Telephony Market Trends

Over the four years to 2008, fixed telephony market revenue has fallen by about 17% (£1.9 billion). But the picture is complex

The total number of fixed access lines has fallen by only 4% since 2004, but losses have been predominantly of business lines, due to a combination of inter-related factors involving a shift from ISDN2 to broadband, fixed call substitution and increased home working

We estimate that roughly half of the decline in total market revenue since 2004 has been due to substitution of dial-up internet access by broadband, the rest being accounted for by the substitution of regular call minutes by email and other forms of text communication, as well as by mobile, and price cuts

Telecoms, Fixed Line 10 October 2009
UK General Election online - news and advertising

In contrast to print coverage, most shared news and opinion content on social media was decidedly pro-Labour this election season, with fake news relatively non-existent compared to the US election in November

Facebook’s role in news distribution has steadily grown and now rivals Google’s, but only a half of the UK’s  electorate are active users – for the platform to become decisive in political news would require much stronger turnout among young voters

Facebook was the chief digital ad platform for both main parties, with Conservatives targeting Labour seats, Labour defending them and both adopting a negative tone

  • BBC
  • Facebook
  • Google
Internet, Media, Mobile, Technology, TV, UK Media 7 June 2017
UK Handset Survey

We have recently completed our December survey of UK mobile users, which shows increased purchase intentions for handsets in general and camera phones in particular.  We summarise the results in this note, which are good news for handset manufacturers, but more mixed for the operators.

 

 

 

Telecoms, Mobile 19 December 2002

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