Publications

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UK Residential Telephony Market Update

Carrier Pre-Selection (CPS) providers such as One.Tel and Carphone Warehouse are adding thousands of customers for fixed-line voice calls every week. BT has improved its competitive positioning in the course of 2004, but many service providers are still able to provide a discount to BT. As a result, BT lost almost 7% of UK geographic call minutes in the past year.

Fixed Line 16 February 2005
UK residential high speed broadband outlook: leading the horse to water

BT’s plans to deploy next generation access, combined with state-aided rural broadband projects, look set to give almost three quarters of UK households access to high speed broadband by 2016

New wireless technology is a feasible substitute for wireline for some low-end users and in specific areas, but we do not expect it to have a major impact on high speed broadband deployment

BT Retail and Virgin Media will in effect move significant numbers of their customers onto high speed broadband, but without significant price reductions we believe that, even by 2016, consumers’ reluctance to pay more will result in two-thirds of households remaining on lower speed options

  • Virgin Media
  • TalkTalk
  • Sky
  • Orange
  • O2
  • BT
  • EE
Fixed Line, Telecoms, Internet, Media 19 July 2011
UK Residential Broadband Market: the guests have arrived, but is the party almost over?

This report examines recent developments in the UK residential market for broadband internet access. We consider the outlook over the next five years for total market volume and market shares

Telecoms, Fixed Line 16 October 2007
UK Residential Broadband Market: maturity rapidly approaching

This report examines recent developments in the UK residential market for broadband internet access. We consider the outlook over the next five years for total market volume and market shares

Telecoms, Fixed Line 3 November 2008
UK Residential Broadband Market 2010

The decline in UK residential broadband market growth has paused due to accelerating adoption by older householders and increased household formation. We expect 970,000 net additions in 2010 and 20.5 million broadband households by 2015. However we expect growth will continue to decline from 2011 as the impact of the government spending review feeds into consumer confidence and the market becomes increasingly saturated

As BT’s next generation access network is deployed, there is likely to be accelerated improvement in DSL price/performance, with DSL customers migrating to a 40 Mbit/s headline speed as it becomes available. The impact of this is likely to be compounded by Virgin Media up-rating its broadband portfolio from speeds of 10, 20 and 50 Mbit/s to 20, 50 and 100 Mbit/s

In the absence of further consolidation, in market share terms the industry appears set to remain divided into three strategic segments: the ‘big three’, brand extenders, and Sky. We expect residential broadband market revenue (excluding content) to continue to decline gradually, stabilising by 2015 as the impact of market share gain by lower priced ISPs attenuates due to a combination of a maturing market and reduced price differentials caused by NGA

  • Vodafone
  • Virgin Media
  • TalkTalk
  • T-Mobile
  • Sky
  • Orange
  • O2
  • BT
  • EE
Fixed Line, Mobile, Telecoms, Technology, Internet, TV, Media 20 October 2010
UK Residential Broadband Market

This report examines recent developments in the UK residential market for broadband internet access. We consider past trends and the outlook over the next five years for the total market volume, market shares, prices and margins

Telecoms, Fixed Line 18 October 2006
UK Residential Broadband Market

Annual market growth is dropping in line with our predictions over the past two years, despite some significant quarterly blips.We continue to project growth in 2009 to be significant, but much lower than in the past, with net additions of 1 million

We expect annual net additions in 2010 to drop by another 20% to 800,000 as the market becomes ever more saturated

We project 19.8 million broadband households by 2014 and have slightly increased our projections from 2010 to take into account the likely impact of higher growth in the number of households as recently predicted by the Office for National Statistics (ONS)

  • Virgin Media
  • BT
Telecoms, Fixed Line 24 November 2009
UK Regional Newspapers

This is the third in our series of notes on UK newspapers and concerns regional newspapers. Unlike other media sectors, 2002 has got off to a positive start (as we predicted) due to resilience in newspaper advertising, particularly recruitment. This can deliver 25% plus of revenues. We expect recruitment to remain resilient, primarily due to continued government recruitment. As a result, we forecast 2-3% growth in advertising to this media sector in 2002.

But the overall conclusion of this report is that installing the infrastructure has, so far, changed very little. Old patterns of consumer behaviour largely remain. Three key points emerge. First, Internet behaviour is actually still very similar to Europe. Second, though wireless data use is rising, it is still a small fraction of voice usage. Popular data applications remain almost exclusively heavily focused on teenage ephemera, including ring tones, graphic messages and SMS/email. Third, the massive investment in digital TV capability, through satellite, terrestrial, cable and DSL is not being driven by consumer demand for High Definition TV. If South Korea is a good predictor of what is likely to happen in the rest of the world, the development of new content industries will continue to be slow and painful.

Media 13 May 2002
UK Regional Newspapers

In this report we look at one of the subsectors of UK media - regional newspapers - to see whether these companies would be relatively resilient in a downturn - this is the product of our review. The main points are as follows:

Our rationale is simple. This year has been profoundly affected by the impact of high levels of inventory in the early months of the year. This stock has now been disposed of, and handset shipments from manufacturers will revert to a level more aligned with retail demand. This will push up shipments next year from this year's artificially depressed level.

Media 13 September 2001
UK recorded music: Transition to access

After a relatively benign year in 2013 for UK recorded music thanks to a small pickup in trade revenues, we project a 5% decline in 2014, with digital music purchasing now falling as consumers shift to ad-supported and subscription access services, while CD sales continue to drop at a double-digit pace each year.

The UK reached a new milestone at the end of 2013 surpassing 1.3 million paying subscribers, a large number of non-paying 'hard bundled' subscribers on Orange/Deezer and Vodafone/Spotify 4G plans, plus several million Spotify freemium and Spotify Free 'smart radio' users.

We project steady expenditure on recorded music as a whole in the period to 2017 from consumers and advertisers at £1.1 billion annually, but anticipate the loss of £90 million in trade revenues in the shift to access due to the labels' lower revenue-share.

Music and Radio, Media 4 September 2014
UK recorded music still in decline

UK recorded music retail sales fell 8% in 2012 to £1 billion, as CD sales fell 21% to £540 million whilst digital formats rose 15% to £484 million on a huge 70% climb in subscriptions.

HMV store closures in 2013 will further dent CD sales, but accelerate the point of inflection (at least 50% digital sales) of the UK’s retail market.

The UK remains a robust source of royalties from performance of sound recordings, with PPL reporting revenues in 2011 of £153.5 million, up 7%.

  • O2
Music and Radio, Internet, Media 26 March 2013
UK quarterly internet trends Q4 2014

During 2014, the PC finally lost its crown as the main device for accessing the internet: for the first time, aggregate usage on mobile devices accounted for more than half of all time spent online.

Two thirds of people now have a smartphone, which is becoming the main method for getting online, while tablet penetration appears to be flattening out and the PC internet audience is in decline.

Mobile monetisation still lags that of the PC but the gap is shrinking: smartphones and tablets generated 40% of e-retail sales in Q4 and across the year ads on mobile devices represented a quarter of internet search and display advertising with further strong growth ahead.

Telecoms, Technology, Internet, Media 24 March 2015
UK quarterly internet trends Q2 Q3 2014

The shift to mobile continues, with the smartphone replacing the laptop as the device with the most users, although the rate of tablet adoption has slowed somewhat.

This shift will change the online revenue mix, with mobile being better suited to content, native and video advertising than traditional display and search. Mobile devices also now account for the majority of visits to retail sites, and more than a third of spend online.

We see large age-based differences across all internet activities, but the split is particularly significant for smartphone adoption and usage, with only a quarter of over-55s using smartphones, and only a third of those reporting downloading apps.

Mobile, Telecoms, Technology, Internet, Media 1 December 2014
UK quarterly internet trends Q2 2015

The UK’s love affair with the smartphone continued in Q2: 85% of adults under 55 and a third of over-55s now have smartphones, which are becoming the primary method of accessing the internet, accounting for over 40% of time online

Among teens and younger adults internet usage is now higher than TV viewing, though this is still offset overall by the massed ranks of older viewers who remain glued to their TV sets

Commercial revenues derived from mobile devices still trail their share of internet usage but the gap is closing fast: in Q2, smartphones and tablets generated nearly half of consumer e-commerce transactions, while mobile ads represented 34% of internet search and display advertising

Internet, Media, Mobile, Technology, Telecoms 3 September 2015
UK quarterly internet trends Q1 2015

The latest numbers for Q1 2015 show strong device and internet user growth, with more of the population online than ever before, including more than 90% of under-55s. Growth amongst older groups, however, has slowed to a crawl

Participation in online activities is up across the board, but digital media data shows spend on ebooks and digital music struggling, with the latter being heavily impacted by the rise of unlimited streaming models such as Spotify

The story of mobile's surge continues, with almost a half of e-commerce transactions and a third of search and display ad spend now going to mobile. Most of these mobile devices are Android, but iPhone seems to have gained long term share with its larger phones. Google services, however, have cross-platform reach

  • Amazon
  • Apple
  • Facebook
  • Google
Internet, Media, Mobile, Music and Radio, Technology, Telecoms, UK Media 5 June 2015
UK quarterly internet trends Q1 2014

The UK’s love affair with mobile devices continued in Q1 2014, with four times as many smartphones and tablets as PCs shipped during the quarter. Smartphones now account for three quarters of mobile phone sales, and shipments of tablets exceed sales of PCs, though the latter improved during the quarter

The device mix for internet access is changing rapidly: more people now have a smartphone than have a laptop in the home, though the overall PC audience (including desktop) is still larger. For many people, smartphones are becoming the core device to get online, and almost half of all households have a tablet

Commercial revenues derived from mobile devices still trail their share of internet usage but the gap is closing: in Q1, smartphones and tablets generated a third of e-retail sales, while mobile ads represented a fifth of internet search and display advertising

Mobile, Telecoms, Technology, Internet, Media 13 July 2014
UK quarterly internet trends

The internet continues to gain share of media consumption and advertising at the expense of traditional media in the UK. This report highlights key online trends in the UK and our current forecasts for internet advertising in 2010 (we will address mobile advertising separately)

  • Facebook
  • Google
Media, Internet 5 March 2010
UK press and News International: what next?

Trinity Mirror, Northern & Shell and DMGT helped the market more or less offset the absence of the News of the World, though impressive volumes have come at a price

More generally, newspaper circulations have a temporary reprieve, as strong newsflow but also discounts and marketing techniques have been deployed to attract readers

What happens next at News International, and also competitor responses, could soon change market dynamics again

  • News Corp
  • DMGT
Media 21 July 2011
UK PC Video-on-Demand

This companion report to UK TV VOD [2005-24] concludes that the number of PC-based video-on-demand (VOD) services in the UK is set to explode in the near future. Rising broadband penetration, to 35% of UK homes at the end of 2005, is leading every major content owner, aggregator, broadcaster, service provider, and network operator to develop a PC VOD service. Will this response to the interest in personalised media consumption enable the PC to take over from the TV as the main source of video entertainment? The short answer is no, although we expect the market for PC-delivered VOD to grow dramatically in the next 2-3 years.

Sky Italia subscriptions, now totalling 3.71 million, have increased by almost 0.5 million subscribers in the last year. Low SACs, low churn, and yet high ARPU, show that Sky continues to benefit from strong natural growth in a pay-TV market that is experiencing a new lease of life thanks to the eradication of piracy post merger of Telepiu with Stream 

Media 17 March 2006
UK pay-TV in 2009: recession and competition concerns

Leading pay-TV operators Sky and Virgin Media (VMed) have shown little sign of recessionary damage in 2008 and the outlook for Q1 2009 remains positive. Difficulties are apparent at complementary pay-TV service provider Setanta

Ofcom’s pay-TV investigation enters its final stages in 2009. Ofcom faces a formidable challenge to devise a workable wholesale must-offer solution for premium film and sports content that fosters competition across all platforms

With prospects fading fast of a VMed sale of its UKTV and possibly VMTV assets to a BBCW/Channel 4 joint venture, Discovery looks an increasingly suitable candidate, as competition concerns could arise if Sky was the chosen partner

  • Virgin Media
  • Sky
Media, TV 7 April 2009

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