Publications

Format: Dec 2017
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Vodafone 2009/10 FY results: economic recovery benefits revenue, costs not-so-much

Vodafone Europe’s organic revenue growth improved again, from -3.2% to -2.4%, with it enjoying a fair share of the improvement in mobile market growth driven by improving economies across Europe

EBITDA margin fell, partly as a result of weak cost control but mainly because SAC/SRCs rose as Vodafone subsidised consumers getting more expensive handsets, which involves a short term (but not long term) profitability hit

Vodafone Europe could move back into positive revenue growth this year as it rides the wave of market recovery, but short term margin targets will be hard to hit as handset subsidies continue to rise

 

  • Vodafone
Mobile, Telecoms 18 May 2010
Vodafone 2008/09 H1 results: underperforming competitors

Vodafone’s European organic service revenue growth dropped again in the September quarter, to -1.3%, and we estimate that it continues to underperform its competitors’ growth by two percentage points, thus losing market share. Margins also fell, as the company’s cost reduction measures continue to fail to stop costs rising

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms 13 November 2008
Vodafone 2008/09 full year results: economy and competition start to hurt

 

Vodafone’s European revenue growth dipped sharply in the March 2009 quarter to -3.3% from -1.4% in the previous quarter, due to a combination of recessionary impact and continuing underperformance of the market

EBITDA margins also declined by 2ppts, with falling handset subsidies more than compensated for by a sharp rise in general operating expenses, despite cost cutting efforts

Implied guidance for Vodafone Europe in 2009/10 of an organic 4-5% drop in revenue and 2ppt dip in EBITDA margin is bleak but realistic, with even these figures at risk if either the economy does not start to recover or the company cannot keep general operating expenses flat

 

  • Vodafone
Mobile, Telecoms 19 May 2009
Vodafone 2007/08 interim results: guidance up, but performance down

Vodafone’s European revenue growth has dropped again in the latest quarter, both relative to the prior quarter and its competitors, with Spain performing particularly poorly

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms 14 November 2007
Vodafone 2007/08 full year results and outlook: solid prospects, but distractions remain

Vodafone’s Q4 revenues were healthy if a little weak, with underlying growth slowing from 2.0% to 1.8%, but the improvement in Germany is very welcome

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Mobile 28 May 2008
Vodafone 2006/07 results and 2007/08 guidance: unambitious?

Vodafone achieved its 2006/07 full year targets on revenue and profitability, with solid revenue growth (underlying about 2% in Europe) but dropping margins (by around 2pps in Europe)

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms 29 May 2007
Vodafone - The Transition to Being a 'Value" Stock

This report looks at the prospects for mobile operators. It focuses on the UK, and Vodafone in particular, because of the high quality of data available to analysts. We think the main conclusions apply widely across European operators.

It is well placed to weather any downturn, though its dependence on recruitment advertising continues to concern outside observers.

  • Vodafone
Telecoms 27 September 2001
VOD edges forward

This report sets out our views about current trends and the longer term potential of Video on Demand (VOD) services in a world of converged TV and PC applications

Contrary to views expressed in the Digital Britain Final Report, we think that the non-linear on demand world will develop very slowly, with VOD applications unlikely to achieve more than 5% share of total TV viewing in ten years‟ time

We project that VOD use will achieve 2% of total TV viewing by 2013, some £300 million in total pay revenues and a little over £100 million in spot advertising revenues

Internet, Media 15 July 2009
VMed Q4 2010 results: strong financial performance; prospects more modest in 2011

VMed’s Q4 results were strong financially, although this was partly due to an exceptionally sharp drop in capex; cable volume growth continued to weaken in the face of strong competition from BT Retail and BSkyB

VMed’s results for the past seven quarters have benefited heavily from price increases, which are unlikely to have as great an impact in 2011

Management is developing a range of strong initiatives, including TiVo, 30 and 100 Mbit/s broadband, and fixed-mobile service convergence, but the financial benefits are likely to be felt in 2012 and beyond rather than in 2011. A revamped Virgin Media Business should have a more immediate impact, but we expect group performance in 2011 to be more modest

  • Virgin Media
Fixed Line, Mobile, Telecoms, TV, Media 21 February 2011
VMed Q1 12 results: increased spending on customer equipment and advertising weighs

VMed’s underlying financial performance in Q1 was hit by continuing high capex on customer equipment for TiVo and high speed broadband, and on marketing opex to retain customers Strong take-up of next generation TV, lower cable churn and continuing progress at the Mobile and Business divisions continue to give us confidence that the company’s strategy is working Despite early indications that most cable customers will accept the latest round of price increases, the outlook for underlying cash flow growth in 2012 appears limited

  • Virgin Media
Fixed Line, Mobile, Telecoms, TV, Media 25 April 2012
Vivendi, Mediaset and the Latin strategy

Vivendi is to acquire the main pay-TV division of Italy’s Mediaset in an all-share transaction, creating a ‘strategic alliance’ between the two groups. Each partner will own a 3.5% stake in the other. The deal is positive for Mediaset but the benefits for Vivendi can only accrue long term

Mediaset Premium claims two million subscribers and recorded €640 million revenue in 2015. However, EBIT losses amounted to €115 million and are likely to more than double through 2016 and beyond. The deal has no discernible impact on Premium’s bigger rival Sky

Vivendi and Mediaset will also jointly operate a ‘global’ online video platform and collectively develop content production and distribution. The pair’s respective assets are sizeable but domestically focused with little demonstrable international synergy

  • Sky
  • Vivendi
Non-UK Media, Media, TV 18 April 2016
Vivendi Universal

Vivendi's only agenda at this time is to effect a disposal of its non-core assets for the best price to reduce debt to manageable levels. This note casts a critical eye on prospects for sale of USA Networks (good), Universal Studios (poor) and VU Games (good), as well as the disposal and valuations for other assets such as Universal Music, Groupe Canal+ and Cegetel/SFR.

Media, Telecoms 13 April 2003
Vivendi scenarios for 2011

Vivendi is close to being in a cash position to buy out minority shareholdings in SFR and Canal+, shedding the image of a ‘conglomerate’ of partly owned and diverse assets, which has weighed on valuation Acquiring Vodafone’s 44% stake in SFR (now only a question of price) would allow Vivendi to rebrand itself as a telecoms story, serving France, with Maroc Télécom and mainly Brazil’s GVT supplying the upside To fully acquire Canal+, Vivendi’s offer will need to consider Lagardère’s option of floating its 20% stake. Owning 100% of Canal+ and SFR opens the narrative of a ‘French media/telecoms champion’ – which we find less credible

  • Vodafone
  • SFR
  • Canal Plus
  • Vivendi
Fixed Line, Mobile, Telecoms, Non-UK Media, TV, Media, Non-UK Telecoms 4 November 2010
Vivendi 3.0: Back to square one?

The Vivendi empire is shrinking in revenues, cash flow and also in debt: Activision Blizzard and Maroc Télécom were sold in 2013, SFR will be spun off

We expect SFR’s topline revenue decline to halt in H1 2014, ending the pain from the disruptive launch of Free Mobile in 2012. With SFR and Bouygues Telecom intending to conclude a network-sharing agreement outside urban areas by the end of 2013, SFR should have a more positive story to tell investors when it comes to the Paris stock market in late 2014

With SFR spun off, Vivendi 3.0 will own just Canal+, Universal Music Group (UMG) and GVT (telecoms operator in Brazil), three companies without visible synergies. The end point appears to be the full dissolution of the Vivendi conglomerate

  • SFR
  • Orange
  • Vivendi
Fixed Line, Mobile, Telecoms, Technology, Music and Radio, Internet, TV, Media 13 November 2013
Virtual reality in 2016: Launch year challenges

Virtual Reality (VR) is hitting the high street as the first premium headsets with mass-market appeal become available for developers and consumers

Core gamers are the initial focus of content developers for the new VR platforms served on top-end PCs and Sony’s PS4 console

The VR ecosystems of Facebook and Google are focused on user-generated 360 degree video content, whereas professional creation tools, workflows, and delivery infrastrucure will likely take several years of experiments to mature

Media, Mobile, Technology, TV 14 March 2016
Virtual goods and competition law

Publishers are committing no offence by using Amazon as their agent and insisting on a high price for their e-books. Owners are entitled to set their own price and remunerate retailers with a standard percentage commission

On the other hand, retailers such as Amazon that demand publishers do not sell their e-books through other channels at lower prices may well run into legal trouble

Separately, the recent assessment of the legality of using a Greek decoder card to view Premier League football in an English pub will eventually mean that retailers and rights owners will be unable to block the purchase of virtual goods in one EU country for use in another. Publishers may move towards setting single prices for the whole of the EU

Music and Radio, TV, Media 7 March 2011
Virgin Radio: a pig in a poke

Scottish Media Group’s decision to sell its Virgin Radio business has been prompted by the need to pay down group debt and the management’s decision to refocus on the turnaround of its ITV service. This report outlines our views on the management pronouncements made on the success and performance of Virgin Radio and, therefore, its value to investors. We consider that management has exaggerated the potential value of this asset to investors

 

 

 

  • SMG
Media, Music and Radio 7 May 2007
Virgin Radio – new owner, new name, new beginning

After a protracted offer period, Scottish Media Group has finally sold its national commercial radio business ‘Virgin Radio’ to Bennett, Coleman & Company Limited for £53.2 million cash. The sale does not include the licence to continue using the brand name from the Virgin Group, so the station will be re-branded and re-launched by its new owner in autumn 2008. This report argues that, although the value of Virgin Radio’s main AM analogue platform is diminishing, the value of the accompanying FM licence in London could be significantly increased by the execution of a successful turnaround strategy. The London licence alone could reflect the price paid for the whole business, if the station’s rock music programming were to be made more relevant to consumers and advertisers in the capital

  • SMG
Media, Music and Radio 8 June 2008
Virgin Mobile price increases

Virgin Media has recently upped its mobile prices both within the ‘quad-play’ and on the Virgin Mobile standard prepay product

  • Virgin Media
Telecoms, Mobile 1 August 2007
Virgin Mobile and MVNOs

MVNOs have attracted much attention recently. Virgin Mobile's IPO revealed attractive economics and discount MVNOs in certain smaller European markets have had success. This report considers the question of whether Virgin Mobile is a one-off or the start of a trend, and whether discount MVNOs can replicate their success in larger countries.

 

 

 

  • Virgin Media
Telecoms, Mobile 13 September 2004

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